Gold Monitoring Thread $ (USD) only

[Bratnia]

7 hours ago, Bumble said:

The US dollar is not going to cease to be the primary currency of trade and bank reserves any time soon. It may slowly diminish in these roles, but only slowly.

The US cannot afford to back the dollar with gold. It is already in a condition where its entire tax revenue only just covers its welfare and healthcare payments and its debt payments. It cannot afford its military, education, transport, civil service, or anything else. No government can make severe cuts to the welfare, healthcare or military without losing the next election, so that won't happen.

The result is the US will depend in future on the Fed printing currency to finance the Treasury. Printing currency into existence is not compatible with backing the currency with gold or commodities that cannot be printed into existence. It will be inflationary, and the Fed will have to pretty much give up on its inflation target. Unless some massive technological advances happen along to cause disinflation, we are going to have to live with much higher inflation in future.

Not if you already have wealth and asset allocate something like 50/50 gold and US dollars (invested in stocks). The US is the heart of capitalism, others only play at that and where states at times might punitively tax capitalism. Either the US (capitalism) does OK and stock gains offset gold price declines and more (residual real gains), or gold rises more than what stock/dollar decline and leaves a residual real gain.

I'd buy into a digital coin backed by 50/50 US dollar/stock and gold as a form of 'stable coin' for such reasons. As of yet no such 'coin' exists, however its trivial to create your own. I don't buy into either a state 'stable coin' or Bitcoin. The former is inclined to lose purchase power, the latter is more inclined to be too price unstable.

[Zhorro]

On 20/07/2023 at 12:52, QuantumStacker said:

Basically now the BRICS are bringing out a gold back currency, the US will have to look to bringing back the gold standard so the dollar will be backed by gold again as it was from 1944 to 1971. 
 

This is my opinion anyway. 

It appears it is not clear cut that BRICS will set up a new currency next month.

"Earlier this month, the Russian Embassy in Kenya tweeted, “The BRICS are planning to introduce a new trading currency, which will be backed by gold”.  A South African BRICS official announced today that a new BRICS currency is not on the agenda for their summit late next month in Johannesburg. Interestingly enough, not a single major Western media outlet reported on the Russian embassy’s announcement of a BRICS planned gold-backed currency earlier this month, but several major Western media outlets quickly reported on the South African BRICS official’s denial."

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2023-07-20/south-african-brics-spokesperson-said-what

Edited July 21, 2023 by Zhorro
Duplication

[Bratnia]

11 minutes ago, Zhorro said:

It appears it is not clear cut that BRICS will set up a new currency next month.

"Earlier this month, the Russian Embassy in Kenya tweeted, “The BRICS are planning to introduce a new trading currency, which will be backed by gold”.  A South African BRICS official announced today that a new BRICS currency is not on the agenda for their summit late next month in Johannesburg. Interestingly enough, not a single major Western media outlet reported on the Russian embassy’s announcement of a BRICS planned gold-backed currency earlier this month, but several major Western media outlets quickly reported on the South African BRICS official’s denial."

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2023-07-20/south-african-brics-spokesperson-said-what

As I understand it the Russian proposal is for a international trade settlement 'currency' backed by gold, that isn't going to be accessible internally to Russians, is just for international settlements only. Arabia, Africa, Asia all have their own other 'alternatives' also. BRIC's are already a large proportion of the global population, China and India combined populations for instance = 3 billion = 38% of the global population there alone. Africa expands that another 1.5 billion (56% combined share of global population). S America adds another 0.5 billion ...etc.

It's way off there being common agreement to a common settlement (alternative) currency, if ever. The motion however is away from US dollars to instead a broad range of alternative agreements between individual countries. De-globalisation. Which induces additional costs and risks. Individual countries may hold foreign currency reserves in proportion to how much they trade with other countries, China holding Russian RUB, Russia holding CNY in reflection of Russian/China trade movements, but more broadly as a general international currency its more preferable to hold a single common currency such as gold or US Dollars. When you hold too much of a single nations currency you are exposed to higher volatility/risk. The US in establishing the US dollar as a single common global currency was on the back of it being pegged to gold, supposedly no different to gold and easier to move (paper). Faith in that has in effect be lost, worsened further by it being weaponised (used to sanction Russia).

Ultimately I guess there will end up being three main settlement currencies, One each for Asia, Europe and Americas such that no single entity can block individual countries, nor print/spend and export inflation onto others. Fundamentally not much difference to present arrangements, but where the US is in effect reigned in, loses power (cannot sanction), cannot export inflation (print/spend with little/no domestic consequences). Not so good for American's, however that's the coming to a end of less than 4% of the global population who had the benefit of a near monopoly that enabled Americans to live it (very) large. At the other end of the scale there some have to survive on a dollar/day. A factor there is that a relatively small number (Americans as a proportion of global population) of wealthy gave up much of their wealth, once shared around the rest, the uplift effect can be negligible.

Primarily much is simply down to China/Russia looking to take the US down a peg, which in turn has them relatively rise.

[Coverte]

On 21/07/2023 at 17:10, Bratnia said:

As I understand it the Russian proposal is for a international trade settlement 'currency' backed by gold, that isn't going to be accessible internally to Russians, is just for international settlements only. Arabia, Africa, Asia all have their own other 'alternatives' also. BRIC's are already a large proportion of the global population, China and India combined populations for instance = 3 billion = 38% of the global population there alone. Africa expands that another 1.5 billion (56% combined share of global population). S America adds another 0.5 billion ...etc.

It's way off there being common agreement to a common settlement (alternative) currency, if ever. The motion however is away from US dollars to instead a broad range of alternative agreements between individual countries. De-globalisation. Which induces additional costs and risks. Individual countries may hold foreign currency reserves in proportion to how much they trade with other countries, China holding Russian RUB, Russia holding CNY in reflection of Russian/China trade movements, but more broadly as a general international currency its more preferable to hold a single common currency such as gold or US Dollars. When you hold too much of a single nations currency you are exposed to higher volatility/risk. The US in establishing the US dollar as a single common global currency was on the back of it being pegged to gold, supposedly no different to gold and easier to move (paper). Faith in that has in effect be lost, worsened further by it being weaponised (used to sanction Russia).

Ultimately I guess there will end up being three main settlement currencies, One each for Asia, Europe and Americas such that no single entity can block individual countries, nor print/spend and export inflation onto others. Fundamentally not much difference to present arrangements, but where the US is in effect reigned in, loses power (cannot sanction), cannot export inflation (print/spend with little/no domestic consequences). Not so good for American's, however that's the coming to a end of less than 4% of the global population who had the benefit of a near monopoly that enabled Americans to live it (very) large. At the other end of the scale there some have to survive on a dollar/day. A factor there is that a relatively small number (Americans as a proportion of global population) of wealthy gave up much of their wealth, once shared around the rest, the uplift effect can be negligible.

Primarily much is simply down to China/Russia looking to take the US down a peg, which in turn has them relatively rise.

 

[Bratnia]

Feels to me like a gold-in-vogue era. Perhaps approaching halfway through a flat-line (nominal) couple of decades, that will drive out much of the past-profit chasers that jumped in after great gains, only to become disillusioned and sell to profit chase elsewhere as the price of gold remains flat or even declines in nominal terms, losing in real terms - a period when typically you might be taking some of stock gains to buy more ounces of gold at lower prices ... averaging-in, perhaps scaling up the number of ounces you have accumulated 5+ times.

Maybe 2030 before the next step up, maybe sooner, maybe later. You can't reliably predict so the best is to just continue with 67/33 stock/gold (or whatever) and rebalancing once/year. I see that as a Martingale/double-down style. Whatever might drive stock prices to drop a lot, say halve in price, is inclined to see the price of gold rise, maybe double. 67/33 stock/gold transitions to 33/67 and rebalancing has you back at 67/33 again, having endured no loss, whilst also having doubled up on the number of shares you hold. Stock only investors in contrast are down 50%, require a +100% gain to get back to break-even, whereas for the 67/33 stock/gold investor any stock rebounds/recovery are a positive. But similarly on the counter-side, periods when stocks do very well, gold lags, and that is a drag factor, however the rewards still tend to be OK, good rather than great.

Gut feel, but we've yet to see many depart from holding gold, in some cases to become outright gold haters. The trick for those with the required patience is to be on the counter-size of those that bought-high, sold-low.

[HerefordBullyun]

Done a bit of my tech analysis on the yearly chart. Given the there is a bull flag and that the price is trading sideways in a wedge. I am bullish. Reckon by the latest, according to my chart we could be getting breakouts around October 17th, this could be to the upside or down side given the latest sideways pattern. But on a longer term even if breaks lower then there's definite chance of a bounce and even breakout higher. To me it looks like the price is certainly consolidating for a break out on the upside.

Edited September 22, 2023 by HerefordBullyun

[HerefordBullyun]

Interesting article

Gold futures on Monday settle at their lowest since March

Gold has reached its lowest settlement since March, moving further away from the record-high levels that were within reach just five months ago, with prices headed toward a so-called "death cross" that could lead to further declines for the precious metal.

"Gold's kryptonite is surging Treasury yields and a stronger dollar," Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, told MarketWatch.

"Wall Street is having a major reset on where flows are going and that is clearly not gold's way," he said. "Fixed income is all of sudden attractive and that killed the short-term outlook for gold."

December gold futures (GC00) (GCZ23) fell $18.90, or 1%, to settle at $1,847.20 an ounce on Comex Monday. That was the lowest most-active contract finish since March 9, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Prices lost 5.1% in September and 3.3% in the third quarter.

The last time gold traded at such a low was over six months ago, when the U.S. regional banking crisis triggered an influx of buyers, Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro senior market analyst, said in market commentary Monday. "Then, as now, the pressure on gold came from rising U.S. government bond yields and a reassessment of expectations for higher long-term interest rates."

The drop in gold prices followed a rise in early May to $2,055.70, the second-highest settlement on record, and the highest for a most-active contract since Aug. 6, 2020.

Gold prices now look to be closing in on reaching a "death cross" — a technical term that generally indicates a bearish trend, one that occurs when an investment's short-term moving average falls below a longer-term moving average. The 50-day moving average for December gold was at $1,948.34, while the 200-day moving average was at $1,982.13 on Monday, FactSet data show.

The last time the gold market saw a death cross was in July 2022, and that led to four months of declining gold prices, then a very sharp rebound going into 2023, said Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter. So a death cross "could signal more softness in gold and postpone the fall rally that many were hoping for."

Rising Treasury yields sparked gold's price dive, he said. Yields have continued to surge not only because investors are finally starting to believe the Federal Reserve's "determination to keep rates higher for longer, but also as the U.S. Treasury is being forced to issue massive amounts of new paper into a market where traditional buyers are reducing their purchases," said Lundin.

In Monday dealings, the yield on the 10-year Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD10Y was at 4.674%, up from 4.572% on Friday, after the U.S. government averted a weekend shutdown.

Gold is in the "danger zone," and it will plunge below the $1,800 level if the 10-year Treasury yield rallies above 5%, said OANDA's Moya.

He expects gold to "have its moment in the sun when the peak in the [U.S.] dollar is in place."

On Monday, the ICE U.S. Dollar index DXY was up 0.6% at 106.87, around the highest levels of the year so far. Strength in the dollar can make dollar-denominated gold more expensive for foreign buyers.

"A rally towards $2,000 seems unlikely right now" for gold, said Moya. However, "upside could eventually target the $1,925 region."

Meanwhile, Lundin believes the gold-price decline has been "exacerbated by trend-following traders in gold futures piling on after forcing the price through support."

While the price could go even lower under this selling pressure, gold is "extremely oversold at this point," he said.

Interest rates this high are "unsustainable," Lundin said.

Today's global economy and financial markets were "built upon a foundation of zeroed interest rates, and you can't follow that with the steepest and harshest hiking cycle in history without breaking something," he said. "The chances of a market event forcing the Fed to pivot are actually higher now than ever before in this hiking cycle."

"The chances of a market event forcing the Fed to pivot are actually higher now than ever before in this hiking cycle. That could come at any time, and that's where a bet on gold at these oversold levels could pay off handsomely." Brien Lundin, Gold Newsletter

A Fed pivot could "come at any time, and that's where a bet on gold at these oversold levels could pay off handsomely," said Lundin.

See: 'Eventually something will break': JPMorgan strategist warns rising bond yields could unleash a 'financial accident'

[Bumble]

Gold is now getting close to the upper Bollinger band and RSI is close to overbought.

[Stu]

Over $2000

[Zhorro]

Gold has closed the week above the important psychological $2,000 mark.

[Zhorro]

Gold has just hit an all time high in Dollars:

Powell, You Have A Problem: Gold Hits All Time High As Markets Price In Rate Cuts As Soon As March | ZeroHedge

[MetalMandible]

2 hours ago, Zhorro said:

Gold has just hit an all time high in Dollars:

Powell, You Have A Problem: Gold Hits All Time High As Markets Price In Rate Cuts As Soon As March | ZeroHedge

I'm here just for this post.  Onwards to 2100 and beyond!

[Zhorro]

Friday night's close of $2,072.32 was an all time high in Dollars.

[Paul]

To da'mooooooooooooon 🚀🚀🚀 !!! 

....... Whoops, sorry...... Nope, that's the USA national debt 

[KRO]

On 02/12/2023 at 09:04, Paul said:

To da'mooooooooooooon 🚀🚀🚀 !!! 

 

S&P only😀

[pmbug]

JPow has signaled a green light to markets with expectations that the Fed will start cutting rates next year.  Gold should start moving up again.  How high does it go in 2024???

[Chronos]

BullionMarket.info is a CoinMarketCap-style index for physical precious metals prices.

We aggregate pricing data from 12 major online bullion dealers and over 30 of the world's most popular coins and bars to generate a physical price average for gold, silver, and platinum:

https://bullionmarket.info

Edited December 29, 2023 by Chronos

[Chronos]

Walmart has started selling gold and silver (as someone said on X: Walmart is not selling bullion direct to consumer. They are being sold by @APMEX @usmint etc looks like they are just trying to capture as much exposure as possible for @Costco @Walmart customers):

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/first-costco-now-walmart-major-retailers-now-offer-gold-bars

https://www.walmart.com/search?q=Gold

https://www.walmart.com/search?q=silver

[pmbug]

6 hours ago, Chronos said:

BullionMarket.info is a CoinMarketCap-style index for physical precious metals prices. ...

It's striking to see the difference in premium between gold products and silver products.

[Chronos]

New Hampshire Bill Would Allow Employers to Pay Employees With Gold or Silver:

https://blog.tenthamendmentcenter.com/2023/12/new-hampshire-bill-would-allow-employers-to-pay-employees-with-gold-or-silver/

[Chronos]

Four States Consider Lifting Taxes On Precious Metals:

https://schiffgold.com/commentaries/four-states-consider-lifting-taxes-on-precious-metals/

[Bumble]

The recent run-up in gold has pushed it above the upper Bollinger band for three days running now, which is unusual. Also the RSI is technically showing overbought. I wouldn't be surprised to see a short term correction now, like we had in early December. I remain bullish on the year and expect to see further all-time highs.

[Chronos]

The BLM's Quiet War On Precious Metals:

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/blms-quiet-war-precious-metals

[Chronos]

Utah Formally Empowers State Treasurer To Protect State Funds With Gold And Silver:

https://mises.org/power-market/utah-formally-empowers-state-treasurer-protect-state-funds-gold-and-silver

[Varus]

Right he is.