Gold Monitoring Thread $ (USD) only

[Zhorro]

Gold above $2,000...

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-soars-above-2000

[Tn21]

Crude just had a gap up on the open of the market, it would be epic to finally see that happen in the metals sphere. 

[DarkChameleon]

On 02/04/2023 at 18:11, Tn21 said:

Crude just had a gap up on the open of the market, it would be epic to finally see that happen in the metals sphere. 

crude didn't bring silver or gold with it due to oil producers reducing output by 1m barrels per day...but I see silver going up as today it fell below $24 but only slightly after a weekend of those worried sellers...if it stays 50c under or less then by Wednesday I believe it will rise over $24 to stay there and head upwards towards $25,which isn't bad considering it's highest in recent times is only $28....but the premiums of silver and gold eagles will stop it going gangbusters due to minimum contract of planchets sold to the mint.

[Zhorro]

Gold is back above $2,000 - currently it is $2,020.  It is not far off gold's ATH in Dollars of $2,067.16 (according to the BBP chart).

[CANV]

that all Time high will be serious resistance if you are a chart fan..  if it punches through it (not today) then you get a run up. 

[Cointreau]

We are poised at $1996. Up or down? I can't call it. Maybe a bit more down.

[SeverinDigsSovereigns]

8 minutes ago, Cointreau said:

We are poised at $1996. Up or down? I can't call it. Maybe a bit more down.

Time to load more?

[Cointreau]

19 minutes ago, SeverinDigsSovereigns said:

Time to load more?

I bought 40 more ounces of silver.

[Cointreau]

I'm surprised that the spot price is still above $2000. The shorts may be screwed cos they didn't knock the price down much...

I still expect a bit more downside before we shoot up to new highs.

[Upsidedown]

1 hour ago, Cointreau said:

I'm surprised that the spot price is still above $2000. The shorts may be screwed cos they didn't knock the price down much...

I still expect a bit more downside before we shoot up to new highs.

Fed are looking set to hike rates on the 3rd, that might have a brief negative effect on gold prices, but after that I can only see it rising.

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

1 hour ago, Upsidedown5318008 said:

Fed are looking set to hike rates on the 3rd, that might have a brief negative effect on gold prices, but after that I can only see it rising.

I agree. There's another consideration too that may provide a nice buying opportunity:-

Sentiment amongst the largest hedge fund managers is as negative as it's been at any time this year, despite the S&P being near it's ATH. The majority are predicting recession and historically that has led to a temporary dip in PM prices, thereafter they roar back and smash their previous ATHs. The majority (~33%) are predicting the Fed pivots in Q1 2024 and ~14% are predicting the pivot in Q3/Q4 of 2023.

Our last buying opportunity at lower prices is likely to be in the window after May 3rd until the Fed starts to cut. If PMs hold, or even go up in May after the Fed hikes and a recession is officially declared, wow, $2,000 may start to look cheap real fast. Most likely we will see a dip in the next few weeks, some big gold players are predicting a dip in the last week of April. Diamond hands and BTD

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fund-managers-are-the-most-pessimistic-theyve-been-this-year-just-as-stock-market-nears-highs-5e8b1267?mod=bnbh

[Cointreau]

Yes. Gold should in theory dip a little after the Fed raises its rate by 25 points. But the dip won't be that significant and it will be short lived.

As surely the FED will pivot when a big bank gets into trouble. And then to the moon we go. Incidentally, we have been spending a lot of time at the $2005 mark and that level seems to be a line in the sand. But I do think we should all be in BTFD mode now.

(The latest King World News article by Alasdair MacLeod is excellent and I encourage you all to read it. An interesting snippet is how America and George Soros screwed the Asian economy in 97. Revenge is a dish best served cold...)

[HerefordBullyun]

See its taking another morning hammering again!

 

 

[MancunianStacker]

Hold the line!!!! 
 

 

[HerefordBullyun]

Oh dear gold broken below support of 1940 levels this morning - if it slides further we are looking at 1850 levels next. And its options expiry next week....

Going to be bumpy one chaps!!!

But that said a gold buying opportunity!

Silver is well under 23 now - theres mor pain to come. 

[Cointreau]

In terms of dollars gold seems to be a coiled spring at the moment. The manipulators and the shorts have tried to bash the price down further and keep the lid on but I'm sure that new highs are just around the corner.

[HerefordBullyun]

https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-boosted-by-us-cpi-reverse-head-shoulders-triggers-in-xau-usd-20230713.html 

Interesting times ahead could be the next rally now.... 

Well lets see what the London FIX does this morning on the CRIMEX

[Bratnia]

Pound rises to buying 1.305 US dollars, inflation slowing in the US - so interest rates more inclined to decline than rise, British inflation still high, interest rates more inclined to rise than decline, investors can secure a higher rate of interest from the UK than the US so deposit into Pounds, further pushing the Pounds rise against the Dollar, tending to make gold cheaper when priced in Pounds. Gold as I write = £1496.84/toz. Foreign depositors into Pounds/British interest rates potentially have the double-whammy benefit of combined higher interest rates and a stronger/rising Pound benefit.

Edited July 13, 2023 by Bratnia

[Zhorro]

2 minutes ago, Bratnia said:

Pound rises to buying 1.305 US dollars, inflation slowing in the US - so interest rates more inclined to decline than rise, British inflation still high, interest rates more inclined to rise than decline, investors can secure a higher rate of interest from the UK than the US so deposit into Pounds, further pushing the Pounds rise against the Dollar, tending to make gold cheaper when priced in Pounds. Gold as I write = £1496.84/toz

I think there is an expectation of another US interest rate rise in the next couple of weeks.  I wonder if the Dollar's weakness is due to international de-dollarization, especially with the BRICS group possibly forming a new currency (gold backed) next month?

[HerefordBullyun]

Certainly interesting times....

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/rfk-jr-vows-back-us-dollar-bitcoin-or-gold-if-elected-president 

[Bratnia]

15 hours ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Certainly interesting times....

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/rfk-jr-vows-back-us-dollar-bitcoin-or-gold-if-elected-president 

The US do still strive to align the US dollar with gold, start of 2013 Yellen to November 2022 for instance and it took the same number of dollars to buy a ounce of gold. That's the nature of the beast, consistency, for a while, interspaced with periods of 'resets'. Not a perfect/consistent alignment, but where monetary policies/decisions are in part made with that in mind, as otherwise 'bad things tend to happen'.

[RDHC]

2 hours ago, Bratnia said:

The US do still strive to align the US dollar with gold, start of 2013 Yellen to November 2022 for instance and it took the same number of dollars to buy a ounce of gold. That's the nature of the beast, consistency, for a while, interspaced with periods of 'resets'. Not a perfect/consistent alignment, but where monetary policies/decisions are in part made with that in mind, as otherwise 'bad things tend to happen'.

I must be very dim but I hardly understand a word of this. I expect that it would be to my benefit to do so, therefore could you or some other kind soul please explain it all to me?

[QuantumStacker]

3 minutes ago, RDHC said:

I must be very dim but I hardly understand a word of this. I expect that it would be to my benefit to do so, therefore could you or some other kind soul please explain it all to me?

Basically now the BRICS are bringing out a gold back currency, the US will have to look to bringing back the gold standard so the dollar will be backed by gold again as it was from 1944 to 1971. 
 

This is my opinion anyway. 

[Bumble]

The US dollar is not going to cease to be the primary currency of trade and bank reserves any time soon. It may slowly diminish in these roles, but only slowly.

The US cannot afford to back the dollar with gold. It is already in a condition where its entire tax revenue only just covers its welfare and healthcare payments and its debt payments. It cannot afford its military, education, transport, civil service, or anything else. No government can make severe cuts to the welfare, healthcare or military without losing the next election, so that won't happen.

The result is the US will depend in future on the Fed printing currency to finance the Treasury. Printing currency into existence is not compatible with backing the currency with gold or commodities that cannot be printed into existence. It will be inflationary, and the Fed will have to pretty much give up on its inflation target. Unless some massive technological advances happen along to cause disinflation, we are going to have to live with much higher inflation in future.

[Bratnia]

10 hours ago, Bratnia said:

The US do still strive to align the US dollar with gold, start of 2013 Yellen to November 2022 for instance and it took the same number of dollars to buy a ounce of gold. That's the nature of the beast, consistency, for a while, interspaced with periods of 'resets'. Not a perfect/consistent alignment, but where monetary policies/decisions are in part made with that in mind, as otherwise 'bad things tend to happen'.

8 hours ago, RDHC said:

I must be very dim but I hardly understand a word of this. I expect that it would be to my benefit to do so, therefore could you or some other kind soul please explain it all to me?

Gold as a international trade settlement currency can yield price stability for ages (millennia) as it generally did pre 1931. Inflation tended to broadly average 0% etc. But sooner or later that fails, as it did in the UK 1931. If a country runs into difficulties, runs a extended/large trade deficit such that its continually depleting (spending) its gold reserves with little/no gold coming back in the opposite direction, then once that's all spent a country without any money (gold) is in extreme difficulties, typically 'resolved' by war.

Post WW2 and the US obtained common international agreement that the US dollar would be used for international trade settlements instead of gold, but also agreed to peg the US dollar to gold. It's easier to transfer paper (dollars) and if any one country in effect spends all of its gold then with paper its just a 'debt restructuring' issue. The US maintained that dollar/gold peg up until after the Vietnam war and had to 'restructure' (end the direct peg of US dollar to the price of gold as a means to pay down the cost of the Vietnam war). But rather than just re-pegging the dollar to a new higher agreed fixed gold price instead the policy became more to align the dollar with gold via monetary policy/controls whenever possible. Fed chairs have that in mind when setting ongoing policies.

The main issue with the BRIC members is that SETS, the dollar based trade settlement system has all trades pass through the US, where it has the capacity to see and block transactions such as sanctioning Russia. Russia's response is to establish a alternative to SETS where it instead has control. A gold backed alternative such as proposed by Russia however just returns to the old ways, of where it will work for a while, but sooner or later will falter/fail. Likely therefore is that there will be a number of independent settlement systems being established, so no single state has total control. Not the end of the dollar/US just a reduction in its ability to weaponise (sanction) the flow of money along with being less able to export inflation (print/spend dollars, that devalues all other dollars already in circulation). As such the US will be poorer, less able to print a trillion/whatever to spend on a military/whatever, without also inducing domestic (US) inflation.

Gold will likely continue on as before, where its price tends to remain stable/flat for much of time, inter-spaced with periods of 'resets' (price increases). The US will be less powerful, whilst the likes of Russia/China will expand their military might in order to dictate their own desires/objectives.

What occurred in the UK 1931 (September) was that the Pound was decoupled from gold, creating fiat currency that's not backed by anything other than trust/faith. The US action in 1933 to follow that lead was to nationalise gold, in early 1934 it compulsory purchased all gold and locked it up in Fort Knox, leaving only the dollar (backed only by trust/faith) as the only available option.

Fundamentally its a mess. The West has lived beyond its means, in effect spent all of its gold, whilst the likes of China have accumulated gold. For every ounce of physical gold there are over 120 claims to that gold. Like a bank run if everyone wanted their physical gold to be in-hand at around the same time then there isn't enough gold to go around. So the common suggestion is to hold physical gold in-hand, not in a bank, not via a gold fund that is suggested as being backed by physical gold, as if there were ever a gold-run similar to a bank-run then the outcome is inclined to be the same, many disappointed in not being able to get their hands on "their" physical gold. Be mindful that in the lead up to such a event very much likely is that states would 'outlaw' individuals from holding physical gold one way or another, either by making it illegal to process or via punitive taxation. Those that are compliant and submit/declare their gold would be inclined to lose out. Those that acted illegally and hid/didn't declare would be more inclined to offset otherwise losses, subject to however they managed storage/hiding of their gold. Questionable whether one should act illegally under extreme conditions when laws are made that are questionably excessively punitive. In 1968 UK for instance and top tier taxation was retrospectively applied that amounted to a 138% taxation rate. Earn a Pound, owe 1.38 in tax! Years when the Beatles were singing 'Taxman' "19 for you, 1 for me" in reflection of their 95% taxation rate, and when the likes of David Bowie, Rolling Stones etc. opted to self exile themselves out of the UK.