KDave

2 hours ago, Hennypenny said:

I am a newbie and trusted members on the silver forum. I relied on the feedback system. I'm now worried about buying precious metals from members.

You have lost nothing in reality because you didn't buy anything. Imagine if you had joined wonga and taken out a gold short at $1200; your ignorance and naivety saved you more than it hurt you 👍

As for trusting members in trades, its only a matter of time before someone is scammed on here, however I have not heard of any trouble yet buying or selling. Trading requires trust on both sides, taking someones opinion and using it as advice is another thing all together.

10 minutes ago, Hennypenny said:

I'm actually angry with Wonger for stopping me making some gold purchase when the price was only £1200 per oz. I truly believed in his prediction, as he seemed to have several + on his feedback.

No one stopped you buying at £1200 but yourself. The lesson to learn here is not to take investment advice from the nutcases on the silver forum and take responsibility.

36 minutes ago, Witcher said:

I don't think anyone is saying that deflation does not exist or isn't important. 
We know that they don't have to physically print. All they have to do is simply add a bunch of digital integers on a computer base. 
We already see them NOT minting enough physical coins. Hence, creating a coin shortage.  
What does that do?  Increases the value of metals because there is demand and they limit the supply.  
Everything they do is artificial. that is the whole point.... and the whole reason to hedge against it. 

Apologies for quoting the same post twice. The system is debt based and the issue is liquidity, unless central banks can get currency to where it is needed we will see defaults which will lead to collapse. They can 'print' what appears to be insane amounts, but if that ends up in the wrong places it will have very little effect on preventing deflation while asset prices rise. Hence the direct nature of stimulus these past months. Direct injections of liquidity into the economy. 

The risk is deflation. Inflation will come of course but it is years away. You are right to hedge. 

11 minutes ago, Witcher said:

I don't think anyone is saying that deflation does not exist or isn't important. 
We know that they don't have to physically print. All they have to do is simply add a bunch of digital integers on a computer base. 
We already see them NOT minting enough physical coins. Hence, creating a coin shortage.  
What does that do?  Increases the value of metals because there is demand and they limit the supply.  
Everything they do is artificial. that is the whole point.... and the whole reason to hedge against it. 

Gold and currency are both ideas. Gold the metal is the medium for an idea that value can be transferred through time. In the material world gold the metal has relative few uses compared to its above ground stock. Yet the idea it embodies (money) gives it value (at the moment). That idea is shared by crypto currency by the way, which has no material value, but value as money. Go figure.

Currency can also embody the idea of money, it has done so in the past via the interest rate. However currency is primarily the idea of exchange, or rather the means for exchange that is most effective, especially today in which it can be entirely digital (crypto currency competes here too, unlike gold). You are correct in that the medium has less material value than gold, but what does that matter when the value of them both has very little to do with the material? 

53 minutes ago, Eco said:

 

Yes inflation exists, but the real danger to the established super economies is deflation. 

 

Exactly correct. Deflation has been the biggest systemic risk since late last year, with the central banks not printing enough. But people do not want to hear it, all they see is inflation. Hyper inflation is the favourite scenario for some reason, and also the least likely. 

33 minutes ago, Wonger said:

USD target 140 as ive already posted more than once

140? I think anything above 100 will lead to total collapse. Ironically for all the QE, there is a global dollar shortage.

Just now, Wonger said:

Lets hope you continue posting that chart for updates until $385 by the end of 2021 

I can see the logic in your position, and as you have mentioned collapsing stocks on here as well, frozen trading accounts, etc - it seems to me you are expecting a deflationary collapse. 

Are you watching the dollar as an indicator? If so I would say if DXY goes above 100 we will see your systemic collapse prediction come to pass. As the FED has taken the foot off the QE, this is looking more likely by the day. Perhaps you are right. Part of me hopes so, for all the pain it will cause it will be worth it long term.

4 minutes ago, dicker said:

Money printing galore....

Money for not working

Bounceback loans

Bailouts

This has been reality since I was old enough to process politics (election of Blair). Taxing the decent to death in order to pay for the feckless, regardless of generation, has been government policy my entire life. I started my career in 2007 a year before the collapse and lived through it watching people who had assets give no thought to shouldering the next generation with their failure.

7 minutes ago, dicker said:

Millennials will be absolutely stunned when this all unravels.  
 

1 hour ago, Roy said:

This is mainly an American example right?

I wonder if the same applies in the UK though with furloughed workers sat idle and with nothing to spend their money on (holidays, restaurants, footie, hot tubs etc).

Yes that's the theory, it is only a theory but have a read

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4354679-rise-of-robinhood-traders-and-implications

Perhaps another shoeshine indicator for the everything bubble yes, perhaps an early indication? 

I would be more concerned if everyone and his dog was interested in silver like they are robinhooding stocks with stimulus pay checks.

It does not matter how much silver is mined compared to gold in regards to the price of either metal. 

Is it fair to compare a single sovereign to 16 oz of silver? This is very interesting if the case and explains the GSR. Silver then becomes seriously overvalued at the previous GSR lows, rather than seriously undervalued as is proclaimed by many today at our recent records.

I am not selling any gold but I have genuinely enjoyed this thread for its arguments/discussion, I don't think I have seen monetary theory discussed this in depth anywhere else on the forum its good stuff.

If Wonga said he was Mark Carney what difference would it make.

Perhaps a bad example, if it was Mark Carney you would know without doubt that the prediction was wrong. 

16 minutes ago, dga00 said:

I have not seen them. Interesting to check the source of this information. It may be propaganda.

Or they could actually be true. But most of the people that are paying down their debts in this period are those who:
1, did not lost their job; they continued working because they were deemed essential or they could do their work from home
2. received stimulus checks
3. reduced their spending because of the lock down; and this is important, because people that are accustomed to be in debt, and having different shortages through the years, have used the remaining cash, saved because of the lock down, to indulge in some of their long time wants... not paying extra on their loans.

I believe people are using furlough money to pay off their debt. It could be propaganda but if you are basically unemployed (furlough) and have no promise of a job in a few months time you are not going to be living large, you would want to reduce your liabilities. I said a few months ago that the stimulus checks were not inflationary because they are at best replacing what liquidity has been lost, it looks now in reality that they are being used to further reduce liquidity as people pay off debt - destroying currency - and not spending the money like they did their normal wages - this is very deflationary.

Oil and gold both negative you are predicting deflation, gold price that low would require enormous deflationary pressures, or one enormous recession.

I have seen the consumer debt figures for April and May people are paying off record amounts of debt. I have not worked out how deflationary this is on aggregate given that many businesses and governments are borrowing at the lower interest rates, but my feeling in regards to the deflationary effects are "very". Especially if this continues once lockdown is over, which I imagine it will given most are expecting more uncertainty/second wave, the government will have to step in but likely will be following the curve rather than setting it.

well done on crude, you are expecting another glut of oil? 

9 minutes ago, Zhorro said:

If "technical analysis" of the gold price is so useful, why have so many banks made massive losses from their gold trades?

No system is perfect not even asparagus.

53 minutes ago, sixgun said:

You are viewing the asparagus candle stick chart upside down. When viewed correctly, after a period of consolidation it is upside movement over the rest of the year between $1750 and $2400 USD. 

Ah yes I see it - if gravity is inverted the two asparagus do indeed say that, but we would need to see the fallen asparagus close above the plate before we can be confident in the upside target.

6 hours ago, Prophecy said:

I think the jury is still out on the last asparagus...

The falling asparagus indicates a coming severe downside movement, expect between $750 and $400 USD as per the two vertical spread asparagus.

6 minutes ago, TheApe said:

What a load of rubbish. 

Not that gold will go down to 750..just this video.

You think gold will fall to $750?

$750 gold on its way?

15 hours ago, Ainsgb said:

Ive given in to the pressure and gone all in on gold with all the spare cash i had. Just hope it goes up from here.

What kind of investment mentality is that. Go all in and hope!? Why not just play roulette, at least then the returns don't take 7 years to materialise 

15 hours ago, Ainsgb said:

Cant wait to recieve my new haul.... a single 1/40 ounce gold britannia its not much, but its better then nowt hahaha 

Oh fair enough. 👍

12 hours ago, Prophecy said:

I have a token holding in silver -just in case- but, quite frankly, it's a waste of time. Happy to eat my gold if silver has a sustained and sensible rise but it really seems to be absolutely no store of value against inflation and is only bought by people who like the feeling of having PM volume and super low entry points with no regard for any sensible strategy. Most shills only mention silver because it gets hits and likes because it's accessible to everyone. Gold alienates most people because it's too expensive for them to be part of that gang. Again, happy to eat my gold.

 

(I'm being provocative on purpose because its the thing that's jut not said)

This is right, there is a myth that silver is money and acts as an inflation hedge.

Silver performs well when gold is running, see 2005 - 2011, it follows gold. Since the last run in gold ended, silver has not kept pace with inflation. Silver price is also subject to demand pressures from industry.

Therefore silver is a speculators proxy for gold and an industrial metal. Silver is what you want if you think gold will run and/or there is an industrial case forming. Silver is not money. 

The GBP/US$ price of silver is the same today as it was when I started buying in 2014. Gold is double what it was in 2014 in GBP. Clearly silver has not acted as money for my small part. Industrial demand per ounce has done nothing exciting for the period and is roughly where it was 7 years ago. Even then silver should be higher in GBP via inflation but it has not provided that. Silver is not an inflation hedge.

We have some evidence that silver is a gold proxy and an industrial metal, and not money and not an inflation hedge. The question then to ask - do you want to buy silver as a speculator. That's it. Forget about the inflation and monetary arguments. Gold can address those factors but silver is the wrong vehicle. 

Is silver worth buying or a waste of time; 

Will expected movements in the gold price, increase demand for silver as a gold proxy?

Is there a viable case for increasing industrial demand? 

From what I have seen, I believe there is a long term case for both to the point silver will be one of the best performing. Short term I have my doubts, about gold for my own reasons and about industrial demand for more obvious reasons.