Buying gold for first time

[Silvistone]

Greetings!
Been watching the gold prices over the last 10 days or so and wondering when would be a good time to buy
https://www.gold.co.uk/gold-price/gold-price-per-ounce/
The price came down last Tuesday for a few days but on the thursday and maily friday the price has gone though the roof! Is there a reason for this and is it just a short spike where we should see it come back down again soon? or will it continue up?
Thanks

[QStack]

The best time to buy is when you can afford it. TBH a £20-£30 swing either way shouldnt make too much of a difference if you're holding for the long term and not going to need to sell in a few months.

[Pete]

If any of us could predict the price movements of gold we would all be considerably richer.

[Stacktastic]

9 hours ago, Silvistone said:

Been watching the gold prices over the last 10 days or so and wondering when would be a good time to buy

My bench mark for gold is £320 a SOV and below. 
Silver is not a bad idea also, might have missed the lows on that, but I like £20 an ounce and under factoring in postage and premium. 

[Chandler365]

1 hour ago, Stacktastic said:

My bench mark for gold is £320 a SOV and below. 

Do you think we will ever see £320 a Sov again ?  😉 

[Stacktastic]

20 minutes ago, Chandler365 said:

Do you think we will ever see £320 a Sov again ?  😉 

yes if the price dips long enough & dealers adjust premiums to a more acceptable level.  
I know this is the USD price (prob. due to bonds) but its already back to 2020 prices recently.
looking weak short term is you ask me but im no expert as its nearing the pre cough-id & world madness prices. 

longer term I just dont know as we are nearing the financial reset!!

Edited September 25, 2022 by Stacktastic

[LawrenceChard]

12 hours ago, Silvistone said:

Greetings!
Been watching the gold prices over the last 10 days or so and wondering when would be a good time to buy
https://www.gold.co.uk/gold-price/gold-price-per-ounce/
The price came down last Tuesday for a few days but on the thursday and maily friday the price has gone though the roof! Is there a reason for this and is it just a short spike where we should see it come back down again soon? or will it continue up?
Thanks

The best time to buy would have been before March 2022, although I know that may not be too helpful.

I use this source:

https://www.chards.co.uk/gold-price/ounce/gbp/year

However this link will give you a different perspective:

https://www.chards.co.uk/gold-price/gold-price-history

And you may conclude that the best time to buy gold was before 1965.

If you went back to around that time, I was selling gold sovereigns at £4 each, £37.50 per 10, £365 per 100, and £3500 per 1000:

https://24carat.co.uk/frame.php?url=collectingcoins.php

I posted a Topic on TSF on Friday at 13:31:

This should also be replicated and expended on the Chards website.

It should explain some of what you are asking.

"is it just a short spike where we should see it come back down again soon? or will it continue up?

In the short term, who knows? I don't.

On a longer term view:

What is the Bank of England's annual inflation target? That is effectively the amount by which sterling will devalue each year?

Will the pound sterling (or any other currency) ever achieve long term value stability?

😎

 

[refero]

in my opinion the "right" time to buy has nothing to do with the current spot price/value. The right time is when you can convert some cash in gold w/o any issue and need to reconvert the gold in cash any time soon. Gold is a store of value, to help protect your money from inflation, from your currency lose purchasing power, from bank accounts costs etc etc. I dont think you are willing to convert (just to give an example) 1000 or 2000 gbp in gold and expecting to get 2000 or 4000 gbp back any time soon. Unless you are planning to invest 50,000? 100,000? gbp, as said, holding gold it's just a strategy to protect yourself, rather than to make an immediate profit.

 

[Silvistone]

3 hours ago, Stacktastic said:

longer term I just dont know as we are nearing the financial reset!!

As the euro and dollar Collapses. Inflation goes though the roof and a resesion that would make the last one look like a chip munks tea party due to goverment excess printing of notes. I would expect gold to go though the roof well before they decide to call it a day and finally bankrupt all major goverments calling it the great reset into a new world order

 

I read from UK independent wealth (hosted by Nigel Farage and some others) that gold could reach $5000/ oz or even 10K oz

Edited September 25, 2022 by Silvistone

[Silvistone]

1 hour ago, refero said:

in my opinion the "right" time to buy has nothing to do with the current spot price/value. The right time is when you can convert some cash in gold w/o any issue and need to reconvert the gold in cash any time soon. Gold is a store of value, to help protect your money from inflation, from your currency lose purchasing power, from bank accounts costs etc etc. I dont think you are willing to convert (just to give an example) 1000 or 2000 gbp in gold and expecting to get 2000 or 4000 gbp back any time soon. Unless you are planning to invest 50,000? 100,000? gbp, as said, holding gold it's just a strategy to protect yourself, rather than to make an immediate profit.

 

Sure I know what you are saying

But I am looking at this from 2 aspects, the gold could sit there a long time but on the other hand a business deal might come up tommorow and I want the gold cashing, so spot price important to me as well

QUESTION- what caused the gold to spike in price end of last week?

Edited September 25, 2022 by Silvistone

[iodio]

When you a coin you like and can afford it. Buy it because 30 to 100 swings isn't alot for coins. If buying bars. Anytime really. Swings under 160 don't scare me if for long run. But short term it's alot. Bars are better short termish vs coins.

[refero]

1 hour ago, iodio said:

But short term it's alot. Bars are better short termish vs coins

sorry but i couldnt disagree more. Some coins like sovereigns are known and accepted worldwide. You wanna sell them you cash them.

Bars? good luck... firstly, for a quick sell you want to give back to those that sold it to you. Otherwise everyone else could rightly ask to take a sample first. Bars also have high manufacturing costs you will always pay as a premium over spot when buying...

[GoldDiggerDave]

5 hours ago, LawrenceChard said:

The best time to buy would have been before March 2022, although I know that may not be too helpful.

I use this source:

https://www.chards.co.uk/gold-price/ounce/gbp/year

However this link will give you a different perspective:

https://www.chards.co.uk/gold-price/gold-price-history

And you may conclude that the best time to buy gold was before 1965.

If you went back to around that time, I was selling gold sovereigns at £4 each, £37.50 per 10, £365 per 100, and £3500 per 1000:

https://24carat.co.uk/frame.php?url=collectingcoins.php

I posted a Topic on TSF on Friday at 13:31:

This should also be replicated and expended on the Chards website.

It should explain some of what you are asking.

"is it just a short spike where we should see it come back down again soon? or will it continue up?

In the short term, who knows? I don't.

On a longer term view:

What is the Bank of England's annual inflation target? That is effectively the amount by which sterling will devalue each year?

Will the pound sterling (or any other currency) ever achieve long term value stability?

😎

 

This is one metric I'm keeping a close eye on 1 because I have PM's gold and 2 savings.   It's working out where the cross over point will be where interest rates for savings may become attractive once again for savers/investors.  Some ISA's are now offering 3.5% not great but going in the right direction for savers.  If we see 7-9% compounding returns for cash in the bank we could see people reducing PM's and other investment in favour of cash savings.

 

[CollectForFun]

3 hours ago, Silvistone said:

QUESTION- what caused the gold to spike in price end of last week?

Foreign exchange markets reacting to the mini budget announcement = dramatic depreciation of GBP against USD -> higher gold price in GBP despite falling gold price in USD.

I'm sure reading is available on the topic on many sites e.g. over here https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2022/sep/23/uk-consumer-confidence-economy-recession-mini-budget-tax-cuts-kwasi-kwarteng-business-live.

3 hours ago, Silvistone said:

I read from UK independent wealth (hosted by Nigel Farage and some others) that gold could reach $5000/ oz or even 10K oz

"could" is the real magic word, isn't it 🙂

[LawrenceChard]

2 hours ago, iodio said:

When you a coin you like and can afford it. Buy it because 30 to 100 swings isn't alot for coins. If buying bars. Anytime really. Swings under 160 don't scare me if for long run. But short term it's alot. Bars are better short termish vs coins.

 

46 minutes ago, refero said:

sorry but i couldnt disagree more. Some coins like sovereigns are known and accepted worldwide. You wanna sell them you cash them.

Bars? good luck... firstly, for a quick sell you want to give back to those that sold it to you. Otherwise everyone else could rightly ask to take a sample first. Bars also have high manufacturing costs you will always pay as a premium over spot when buying...

I believe coins are beter than bars in general.

Bars should have a lower manufacturing cost, weight for weight, but coins, even bullion ones, have a latent numismatic value. They are usually easier to sell privately than bars.

I / we as dealers would always prefer to buy coins rather than bars, and tend to pay a lower premium for bars (or a larger discount).

Neither of you two are in the UK, but another for UK residents, is that disposals of "sterling" are exempt from Capital Gains Tax. This includes gold sovereigns, Britannias, and most othr British coins. It never applies to bars.

Some countries have preferential import or sales tax rates for coins, but not for bars.

😎

2 minutes ago, CollectForFun said:

Foreign exchange markets reacting to the mini budget announcement = dramatic depreciation of GBP against USD -> higher gold price in GBP despite falling gold price in USD.

I'm sure reading is available on the topic on many sites e.g. over here https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2022/sep/23/uk-consumer-confidence-economy-recession-mini-budget-tax-cuts-kwasi-kwarteng-business-live.

"could" is the real magic word, isn't it 🙂

It could be!

😎

[Silverscrooge]

The best time to buy gold was in 2003 / 2004, the price had flatlined for over a decade and you could pick up sovs for £72.

[Darr3nG]

7 hours ago, Stacktastic said:

if the price dips long enough & dealers adjust premiums to a more acceptable level.

Usual dealer premium for sovs is approx. 5%, so spot would need to drop 15% to £1292.67 before we would see £320 sovs again.

[Silvistone]

6 hours ago, iodio said:

When you a coin you like and can afford it. Buy it because 30 to 100 swings isn't alot for coins. If buying bars. Anytime really. Swings under 160 don't scare me if for long run. But short term it's alot. Bars are better short termish vs coins.

I have a Halifax share dealing account so consider it an ETF

[Silvistone]

3 hours ago, CollectForFun said:

Foreign exchange markets reacting to the mini budget announcement = dramatic depreciation of GBP against USD -> higher gold price in GBP despite falling gold price in USD.

I'm sure reading is available on the topic on many sites e.g. over here https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2022/sep/23/uk-consumer-confidence-economy-recession-mini-budget-tax-cuts-kwasi-kwarteng-business-live.

 

Do you think is the short term (next two weeks) its just a spike and will drop a little or carry on upwards

3 hours ago, CollectForFun said:

.

"could" is the real magic word, isn't it 🙂

Do you not know the global agenda, there is a book worth reading called "brave new world"

[dicker]

 

My simple advice is to invest regularly over a period of time and:

Buy coins with the lowest premium over spot

Buy coins that are highly liquid (in the U.K., Sovereigns or Britannias)

Avoid proofs - unless you really know what you are going

Avoid bars

[Chandler365]

3 hours ago, dicker said:

 

My simple advice is to invest regularly over a period of time and:

Buy coins with the lowest premium over spot

Buy coins that are highly liquid (in the U.K., Sovereigns or Britannias)

Avoid proofs - unless you really know what you are going

Avoid bars

I would add, if I may, to a great check list, ' set up a gold price alert' then you wont miss the occasional sharp drop , saves you keep checking the spot price , this is what I do 

[Scootermuppet]

On 25/09/2022 at 20:25, GoldDiggerDave said:

This is one metric I'm keeping a close eye on 1 because I have PM's gold and 2 savings.   It's working out where the cross over point will be where interest rates for savings may become attractive once again for savers/investors.  Some ISA's are now offering 3.5% not great but going in the right direction for savers.  If we see 7-9% compounding returns for cash in the bank we could see people reducing PM's and other investment in favour of cash savings.

 

But if people shift their wealth to cash in banks, what's stopping the banks clamping down even more on large withdrawals? There's a lot of rumours about already, and I believe some banks are starting to question / block large cash withdrawals... and we've all read about the way banks use your cash once they have it 🤦‍♂️ (or I hope we have...)

Might be sensible to stick with PM's then turn in to cash if / when needed? 🤔

[dicker]

6 hours ago, Scootermuppet said:

But if people shift their wealth to cash in banks, what's stopping the banks clamping down even more on large withdrawals? There's a lot of rumours about already, and I believe some banks are starting to question / block large cash withdrawals... and we've all read about the way banks use your cash once they have it 🤦‍♂️ (or I hope we have...)

Might be sensible to stick with PM's then turn in to cash if / when needed? 🤔

Barclays has put a limit on cash withdrawals from credit cards.  Limited to something like 10pct of your max credit limit.  

[Silvistone]

On 27/09/2022 at 07:15, dicker said:

 

My simple advice is to invest regularly over a period of time and:

Buy coins with the lowest premium over spot

Buy coins that are highly liquid (in the U.K., Sovereigns or Britannias)

Avoid proofs - unless you really know what you are going

Avoid bars

Im doing ETFs/ ETCs and Im charged over 9 quid a transaction, so putting little amounts in every other week would be quite expencive

Avoid bars; Why???

[Silvistone]

On 27/09/2022 at 10:44, Chandler365 said:

I would add, if I may, to a great check list, ' set up a gold price alert' then you wont miss the occasional sharp drop , saves you keep checking the spot price , this is what I do 

So its like the daily hedge thing? Having a bit of a gamble I guess. But as the bookies and casinos the broker always win! I mean you pay 9 odd quid for a transaction with Halifax share dealing and 0.39% with wisdomtree comodities