Marsh Scarcity Rating - How Accurate?

[dicker]

Hi All

I know there was a thread on the latest Marsh scarcity ratings being updated in the latest edition but I have a question.

I suspect that some of the scarcity ratings are a little off.  

For example, I think there are more Ansell Sovereigns knocking around than Marsh suggests.  I have noticed another couple of Sovs that Marsh flags as N or C and I think are significantly hard to get hold of.

Does anyone else agree?

Best

Dicker

[SidS]

Just a thought but how does one know which sovereigns really are scarce or rare?

For example Ansells could be rare but have a high velocity of resales, so the same coins changing hands many times.

Other dates may be more common but because they are perceived as such they enter collections and stay put for a while.

Of course there could also be a regional bias, there may have been many coins of a date/mint in the area that Marsh was collating the data in and less elsewhere in the country. The ones he found to be rarer may be more prevalent in say Scotland, by way of example.

I'm just thinking of say £50 notes, very common in London I believe, where I am, I've only seen one in the last ten years and I haven't used one since 2003.

[dicker]

Indeed, I don’t know how Marsh collated his data, or how it was updated in the latest edition. You make a good point.

What I do know is that we have a great deal of data (auctions, dealers, eBay, NGC,PCGS) which can be leveraged to provide better precision.  

A dealer with good records and a better memory @LawrenceChard ? may be able to provide an opinion.

Perhaps a good example might be the two varieties of Sov with 827 on truncation.  These are genuinely rare but I have seen x3 go through London Coins, Two were discovered in the Duro wreck and one is for sale at the COTR auction (the version with die number 22 rather than the No die version) One was in the Bentley collection.  Have people seen others for sale / sold one etc?

Best

Dicker

[Foster88]

I remember not so long ago seeing a thread on here about the change of the Canada Ottawa sovereigns. Many changing in the 2021 Marsh book in comparison to the previous version from ‘R’ to ‘N’ or ‘C’ but very little clarity why they changed.

I do know that some George V sovereigns are definitely harder to get hold of than the book suggests, some rated ‘N’ hardly ever some up for sale. Mostly the Branch mints, particularly the Australian mints.

[GoldDiggerDave]

I think a lot of the data was carried out before the age of the internet, online auctions etc.  As you would  have seen some ratings have been reduced in the latest guide but not all of them.  
 

Is there a conflict of interest with the threat of potential backlash from holders of scarce coins for someone to devalue over night rating a coin from R5 to R1 for example.

Population reports are a rough guide but there’s nothing stopping the same coin being counted multiple times when people crack them out of a slab and re submit. 
 

And as @SidS said resales could be exaggerating the numbers.
 

Only way to do this would have a national coin recognition system where a coin is digitally scanned, etc effectively given a digital finger print but this would need every seller to register this would not be welcomed by many and impossible to implement. 

 

 

 

 

 

[LawrenceChard]

1 hour ago, dicker said:

Indeed, I don’t know how Marsh collated his data, or how it was updated in the latest edition. You make a good point.

What I do know is that we have a great deal of data (auctions, dealers, eBay, NGC,PCGS) which can be leveraged to provide better precision.  

A dealer with good records and a better memory @LawrenceChard ? may be able to provide an opinion.

Perhaps a good example might be the two varieties of Sov with 827 on truncation.  These are genuinely rare but I have seen x3 go through London Coins, Two were discovered in the Duro wreck and one is for sale at the COTR auction (the version with die number 22 rather than the No die version) One was in the Bentley collection.  Have people seen others for sale / sold one etc?

Best

Dicker

I don't have a great memory for dates, numbers, facts, or anything else which needs memorising. I am better at understanding things, and can remember events which follow a logical sequence or chain of events. Our detailed stock records don't go back so far either.

I do seem to recall photographing 2 of the 827 sovereigns, but don't think we have ever owned any, unlike Ansells, of which we have owned a number, perhaps 4. I think we may have bought another one a few days ago.

Some of the Marsh rarity ratings are based on higher grade coins, and downplay lower grades. 1899-P are not rare in low grades, but higher grades are scarcer.

I remember a TSF discussion about some of the "C" rarities being changed, but don't remember why.

Sorry if this doesn't help much.

🙂

[sovereignsteve]

2 hours ago, dicker said:

For example, I think there are more Ansell Sovereigns knocking around than Marsh suggests.

The Ansell sovereign situation nicely illustrates the point made by @LawrenceChard in the previous post.

MM always pointed out his scarcity details were only based on coins of VF and above, lower grades are ignored. SH has continued this distinction.

I have seen loads of Ansells in grades of aVF and below but very few above.

I did always consider this very strange considering the official line that the gold treated by Ansell was supposed to be very tough.

[LawrenceChard]

On 20/02/2022 at 21:05, sovereignsteve said:

The Ansell sovereign situation nicely illustrates the point made by @LawrenceChard in the previous post.

MM always pointed out his scarcity details were only based on coins of VF and above, lower grades are ignored. SH has continued this distinction.

I have seen loads of Ansells in grades of aVF and below but very few above.

I did always consider this very strange considering the official line that the gold treated by Ansell was supposed to be very tough.

Yes, it was the unrefined gold which was tough, but Ansell had found a method of refining it further, I think by annealing and pickling (I need to find time to re-read "The Royal Mint" by Ansell). Like the gold, it is quite a tough read. The main point being that the finished coins themselves were not tough. My understanding of some of this may be wrong, so please feel free to correct me if you know better.

My Ansell book is a facsimile copy, the print is quite small, and the illustrations are even worse. It would be handy to get a good quality OCR version of it, which would make it much easier to read, particularly as it would be easier to search it, and also read it in a larger and clearer font.

 

Edited February 8, 2023 by LawrenceChard

[Booky586]

1 hour ago, LawrenceChard said:

My Ansell book is a facsimile copy, the print is quite small, and the illustrations are even worse. It would be handy to get a good quality OCR version of it, which would make it much easier to read, particularly as it would be easier to search it, and also read it in a larger and clearer font.

 

There's a pdf version of The Royal Mint by Ansell that I've downloaded from the internet. I'll have a look later and see if I can find the link and post it, don't want you to strain your eyes 🤓

[sovereignsteve]

11 hours ago, LawrenceChard said:

Yes, it was the unrefined gold which was tough, but Ansell had found a method of refining it further, I think by annealing and pickling (I need to find time to re-read "The Royal Mint" by Ansell). Like the gold, it is quite a tough read. The main point being that the finished coins themselves were not tough. My understanding of some of this may be wrong, so please feel free to correct me if yu know better.

My Ansell book is a facsimile copy, the print is quite small, and the illustrations are even worse. It would be handy to get a good quality OCR version of it, which would make it much easier to read, particularly as it would be easier to search it, and also read it in a larger and clearer font.

 

I have the pdf copy of the Ansell book somewhere but I seem to have mislaid it.

According to Marsh, the original gold was too brittle for coining and Ansell managed to re-work it "at very little additional cost and without annealing. The new sovereigns were in fact so tough that an ordinary man could not break them even with the aid of a pair of pliers".

I have seen this version of events several times in the literature so would assume it will be an accurate transcription from Ansell unless some pillock got it wrong somewhere and everyone else has blindly copied it!

[LawrenceChard]

11 hours ago, Booky586 said:

There's a pdf version of The Royal Mint by Ansell that I've downloaded from the internet. I'll have a look later and see if I can find the link and post it, don't want you to strain your eyes 🤓

Actually I think I have also downloaded the same PDF, but it's still not easy to read, which is partly why I bought a copy of the book.

Is there an easy way to convert a PDF to text?

It may be me being a dinosaur, but I find many PDFs difficult to work with.

[jultorsk]

Here's one online copy of the Ansell book if anyone is curious to see

https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=hvd.hwbmc2&view=1up&seq=1

[Booky586]

Well, I've had a good look and managed to find 2 downloadable copies. The 1st link is to google books and gives you what I believe is the 1st edition, running to 145 pages long. Hit "Download PDF" for a standalone version:

https://www.google.co.uk/books/edition/The_Royal_Mint/b1ZKAAAAYAAJ?hl=en&gbpv=0

The next link is to the copy I've been using, a 3rd edition, running to 236 pages long with PDF and Kindle version to download (plus others):

https://archive.org/details/royalmint01anse

 

Edited February 21, 2022 by Booky586

[LawrenceChard]

7 minutes ago, jultorsk said:

Here's one online copy of the Ansell book if anyone is curious to see

https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=hvd.hwbmc2&view=1up&seq=1

 

7 minutes ago, Booky586 said:

Well, I've had a good look and managed to find 2 downloadable copies. The 1st link is to google books and gives you what I believe is the 1st edition, running to 145 pages long. Hit "Download PDF" for a standalone version:

https://www.google.co.uk/books/edition/The_Royal_Mint/b1ZKAAAAYAAJ?hl=en&gbpv=0

The next link is to the copy I've been using, a 3rd edition, running to 236 pages long with PDF and Kindle version to download (plus others):

https://archive.org/details/royalmint01anse

 

Thanks, I will have a look at them later.

... and they should be useful links for other TSF members also.

🙂

[Booky586]

20 minutes ago, LawrenceChard said:

Is there an easy way to convert a PDF to text?

I'm sure there will be but I don't know an easy solution. This link has several download options, including a text version, but it looks like OCR output and it's not been proof read or corrected.....

https://archive.org/details/royalmint01anse 

Edited February 21, 2022 by Booky586

[jultorsk]

Pages 46 and 47 seem to be pertinent. 

 

 

[dicker]

This is the nicest pdf version I have ever been able to find.  Use it with Adobe reader and you can search and select out text.

I have copied it here as its out of copyright and some of the sources disappear!

Best

Dicker

 

royalmint01anse.pdf

[dicker]

PS search for pliers to get to the juicy bit!

[Britannia47]

On 20/02/2022 at 18:11, dicker said:

Hi All

I know there was a thread on the latest Marsh scarcity ratings being updated in the latest edition but I have a question.

I suspect that some of the scarcity ratings are a little off.  

For example, I think there are more Ansell Sovereigns knocking around than Marsh suggests.  I have noticed another couple of Sovs that Marsh flags as N or C and I think are significantly hard to get hold of.

Does anyone else agree?

Best

Dicker

Over the years the ratings/estimates have changed for the 'Ansell'  as to be expected.  Marsh Edition 1 (1980) showed it as R5  ( 9-14 examples known)

Marsh Edition 2 (1999)  showed it as R4  (15-25 examples known) The revised SH version (2017) also shows R4  11 - 20 "examples estimated to have survived"  If you and SS believe that there are many more  in existence then the Marsh estimate is likely to be more accurate. It begs the question however - How many Ansells exist in total, regardless of condition?  I guess we will never know, but I believe SH is better qualified with his high-end sovereign connections to collate accurate information than his predecessor.

In the past I have contacted SH thru' Sovereign Rarities to query the rating of an 1832 (17A) Sovereign and received a positive response, so perhaps this might be a route to take?....

[sovereignsteve]

I would be tempted to believe SH for the higher grade examples. I would say there will be multiples of this in low grade.

[dicker]

23 minutes ago, sovereignsteve said:

I would be tempted to believe SH for the higher grade examples. I would say there will be multiples of this in low grade.

 

28 minutes ago, Britannia47 said:

Over the years the ratings/estimates have changed for the 'Ansell'  as to be expected.  Marsh Edition 1 (1980) showed it as R5  ( 9-14 examples known)

Marsh Edition 2 (1999)  showed it as R4  (15-25 examples known) The revised SH version (2017) also shows R4  11 - 20 "examples estimated to have survived"  If you and SS believe that there are many more  in existence then the Marsh estimate is likely to be more accurate. It begs the question however - How many Ansells exist in total, regardless of condition?  I guess we will never know, but I believe SH is better qualified with his high-end sovereign connections to collate accurate information than his predecessor.

In the past I have contacted SH thru' Sovereign Rarities to query the rating of an 1832 (17A) Sovereign and received a positive response, so perhaps this might be a route to take?....

I agree on the above to a large extent.  

I actually posed the question because I was (privately) discussing with a forum member a recent find of a (good grade) Ansell (I was a little surprised he found one).  This is coupled with my own experience of finding it hard to find particular Sovereigns / Halves that are 'C / N' and and conversely somewhat easier to find ones R>R2.  I suspect this is both timing on my part (right place at the right / wrong time) as well as finding coins that are less than VF

Best

Dicker

[Booky586]

52 minutes ago, Britannia47 said:

Over the years the ratings/estimates have changed for the 'Ansell'  as to be expected.  Marsh Edition 1 (1980) showed it as R5  ( 9-14 examples known)

Marsh Edition 2 (1999)  showed it as R4  (15-25 examples known) The revised SH version (2017) also shows R4  11 - 20 "examples estimated to have survived"  If you and SS believe that there are many more  in existence then the Marsh estimate is likely to be more accurate. It begs the question however - How many Ansells exist in total, regardless of condition?  I guess we will never know, but I believe SH is better qualified with his high-end sovereign connections to collate accurate information than his predecessor.

Marsh (2021) now shows the Ansell as R2 "very rare". That's quite a fall from R5 in 1980 but I suppose it reflects its popularity and hence its well searched for status. Maybe there's not many left out in the wild.

I'm relatively new to sovereigns, still learning, and I search eBay and other auction sites for rarer sovereigns with varieties that aren't marked as such, hoping to bag a bargain. Doing so I have never seen an Ansell, but other R2 and R3 sovereigns appear quite regularly. I rarely manage to win the auction though, others are spotting these varieties too and paying top prices too.

 

[Booky586]

Here's a recent find on eBay, 1862 R over E in BRIT, rated R3 in Marsh. So a higher rarity than an Ansell. I've seen 2 or 3 of these this year where the seller hasn't recognised the error/variety. Compared to no sightings of an Ansell. Perhaps there are a lot of this variety and it's just not an appealing one to collect, hence it goes by unnoticed?

[dicker]

There are many many errors and varieties to be discovered.  

[GoldDiggerDave]

19 minutes ago, Booky586 said:

Here's a recent find on eBay, 1862 R over E in BRIT, rated R3 in Marsh. So a higher rarity than an Ansell. I've seen 2 or 3 of these this year where the seller hasn't recognised the error/variety. Compared to no sightings of an Ansell. Perhaps there are a lot of this variety and it's just not an appealing one to collect, hence it goes by unnoticed?

Not saying it's not there but my eyes are done in and I can't see it.  Have you go the link