Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.

[silversky]

1 minute ago, Minimalist said:

Thing is though @silversky any large Bank, even the BIS, can naked short the futures with limit orders and spoof the markets. They drive the price. Miners/production mark up on spot price. How is that fair? Im not insinuating that you are for it but we know where we are heading. The Banks control the price its undeniable here.

I'm certainly not for it.  In an ideal world, the futures markets wouldn't be leveraged up with all those non deliverable contracts.  And the paper spot market wouldn't be capable of drifting so far away from the physical market, because it wouldn't be two orders of magnitude larger than it.  The whole point of futures markets in the beginning, was to smooth out production risk and allow farmers to sell their crops in advance, funding themselves throughout the year.  It was essentially a loan from a buyer who wanted the product to be produced..  But these days, most of the contracts don't want to buy or sell the product.  They're simply borrowing vast sums of money and dwarfing the real markets.  They pay next to no cost for this pleasure because the interest rates are zero.

There is no solving these issues calmly and sensibly.  Only war and chaos now can unwrite a century of provisions written into code that allows for rapacious mercantile robbery.  Pretty much all of the derivatives, in all classes now, have had their original intention usurped.  None are fit for purpose these days.

All you have to do is look at a few other commodities to see some real problems.  Cocoa for example is a nightmare.  Can't imagine how the poor farmers deal with it.  They end up having to sell to middle men who then supply the chocolate companies, who short their market!  Absolutely wonderful.  It's real life or death stuff out there on the edge, caused by the very market that's supposed to smooth things out for them.  Silver by comparison, is a few large spoof orders from time to time, smashing and grabbing in the quiet periods.  The physical is still bought by consumers for real money, and life goes on.  If it really does ever finally run short, we'll know about it when you can't buy any.  People will finally start demanding delivery and the system will collapse.  Not saying it's right, just recognising that the whole system is corrupt, and overloaded with leeches.

[silversky]

1 hour ago, HawkHybrid said:

what is the difference between 1 toz of vaulted silver and a silver contract for 1 toz?

(think of the difference between owning a car versus having insurance on a car or, owning the deeds to a house

versus collecting mortgage payments on a house)

 

HH

One obvious difference is that you're not allowed to insure your house 400 times!  (or whatever the current ratio is said to be)

Edit:  Life assurance is of course different.  As many people as wish can take out an assurance policy on a person.  But that's because the event (death) is not just likely to be delivered, it's absolutely certain!  It's therefore priced accordingly and doesn't risk bringing the whole system down.   Insurance on the other hand is not expected to be delivered, which is why leveraging it up is unacceptable in law.  The risk of contagion is deemed to be too large.

Edited October 1, 2021 by silversky

[HerefordBullyun]

5 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

what is the difference between 1 toz of vaulted silver and a silver contract for 1 toz?

(think of the difference between owning a car versus having insurance on a car or, owning the deeds to a house

versus collecting mortgage payments on a house)

 

HH

How can it be honoured i.e if there is more paper than silver? It's the paper that's killing the real intrinsic value and price of your commodity.  

And furthermore what do insurance underwriting companies do? Make up clause's so they don't honour the contract and pay out. 

It's honestly beggars belief that some people here hold gold and PM's to have sound money but still adore the economics based on Keynesian lunacy....

You cannot now take the punch bowl away. It's enslavement by debt.

This is going create the next financial crash. Love or hate him Schiff called the last one and he'll be right again.

 

 

[Martlet]

9 hours ago, HerefordBullyun said:

BTW @Martlet Me @Minimalist and @sixgun are giving you the solution to the morality of money.

Yes we know lifes not fair, but people like yourself who blindly support it - are the cancer not the cure. Another punchbowl sir, for an already drunk ecomony?

Japan 20 Years 0% intrest rates ECB 10 years 0% interest rates UK 5 years near 0% intrest rates, The FED 3 years near 0% interest rates. Can you see what the junk bond market and Deraritives have done. Killed prosperity! You want that for you and the future of your family?

 

There's a difference between supporting and accepting.  I do the latter and treat metals as a hedge against a reaction to the excess.  As part of that acceptance, I dont buy into the thesis that, with a playground of trillions of $ in hundreds of different markets, there is a group out to suppress two markets long term.  It is difficult and expensive to push down prices over long periods, I'm yet to hear where the unmet demand is that's being suppressed all this time. 

Edited October 1, 2021 by Martlet

[HawkHybrid]

5 hours ago, HerefordBullyun said:

How can it be honoured i.e if there is more paper than silver? It's the paper that's killing the real intrinsic value and price of your commodity.  

markets are about price discovery and is not about physical delivery.

let me ask the question a different way:

why does the contract for 1 toz vaulted silver have vaulting costs(duh) and a silver contract for 1 toz does not?

what is the difference between the deeds to a house(physical ownership) and a 100% mortgage contract on that

same house? (who is responsible for repairs etc., the owner of the deeds or the collector of mortgage payments?)

think of insurance for a 2nd driver, how does that work? do both of you own the same car at the same time?

or are you both insured to the value of the car should the need arise?

the value of something is different to the ownership of something.

few own 1917 london mint sovereigns. how can numerous experts(many times over the number of those sovereigns)

have price discovery negotiations on what the current value of that sovereign should be priced at if it came up for sale?

is it because at the price they are quoting they are confident of finding both a buyer and a seller to make the sale

happen?

how about crowdfunding for items that don't exist yet. how can the inventor secure crowdfunding for x units at y price

if the product doesn't even exist? how do they determine what price to ask for/settle at?

 

HH

Edited October 1, 2021 by HawkHybrid

[HerefordBullyun]

20 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

markets are about price discovery and is not about physical delivery.

let me ask the question a different way:

why does the contract for 1 toz vaulted silver have vaulting costs(duh) and a silver contract for 1 toz does not?

what is the difference between the deeds to a house(physical ownership) and a 100% mortgage contract on that

same house? (who is responsible for repairs etc., the owner of the deeds or the collector of mortgage payments?)

think of insurance for a 2nd driver, how does that work? do both of you own the same car at the same time?

or are you both insured to the value of the car should the need arise?

the value of something is different to the ownership of something.

few own 1917 london mint sovereigns. how can numerous experts(many times over the number of those sovereigns)

have price discovery negotiations on what the current value of that sovereign should be priced at if it came up for sale?

is it because at the price they are quoting they are confident of finding both a buyer and a seller to make the sale

happen?

 

HH

When you buy something its normally for goods or services. But if your service is flawed, a bit like your logic with the paper silver market. So for example if your car was serviced and then blew up once you drove out the garage, would you not want them to rectify it and possibly and some? With the Paper silver market you dont actually get whats written on the tin. Do you honestly think your insurance is going to pay up- Nope. Again with the paper silver market your not getting the goods. anyway Im done with debating this with you and Martlet - becuase you cant see the flawed logic in completely rigged game drawn up the Central banks and the governments. But one day the chickens will come to roost..... Enjoy your margret thatcher flag waving keynesian baby boomer banking cartel delusion....  

[HawkHybrid]

41 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

how about crowdfunding for items that don't exist yet. how can the inventor secure crowdfunding for x units at y price

if the product doesn't even exist? how do they determine what price to ask for/settle at?

@HerefordBullyun explain this if physical delivery is everything in determining current pricing?

 

the correct price of something is which you can get buyers and sellers for all of the current stock available?

currently 1 billion toz sellers and buyers are agreeing to make the trade in silver at the current prices($22).

as I've asked @Minimalist many times without an answer, I don't know how many people currently

willing to spend £30/toz for bullion silver but it's not 1 billion toz worth of buyers. this means £30/toz

is currently too much to be able to find buyers for all of the current 1 billion toz ready to be sold and

delivered. anyone who claim that currently silver should be priced at £30/toz or more is simply wrong.

 

HH

Edited October 1, 2021 by HawkHybrid

[Bigmarc]

On 30/09/2021 at 07:19, Gruff said:

Not sure, will need to check. I remember Andrew Maguire mentioning something about the LBMA had managed to get a 6 month reprieve in something, but thought that brought it to Jan 2022?

Had a quick look around and so far all I can gather is the LBMA has a exemption. So currently not going to happen. But you know how these things are, different interpretations all over the place.

[HerefordBullyun]

On 01/10/2021 at 13:22, HawkHybrid said:

@HerefordBullyun explain this if physical delivery is everything in determining current pricing?

 

the correct price of something is which you can get buyers and sellers for all of the current stock available?

currently 1 billion toz sellers and buyers are agreeing to make the trade in silver at the current prices($22).

 

 

HH

Of course it is. Why would you pay for something you not going to get. If you believe that when a crash happens you really think your going to keep the silver to protect you against inflation and a crash. The simple truth is the supply isnt really there, the paper markets prove this by the manipulation, by the BIS LMBA etc.

As Ive said before, no point in tagging my anymore, its clear your faith  in Keynesian system of Junk bonds and deriratives is stronger than mine.....

But if you really want to - buy some SLV hold it until a crash and ask for delivery of physical _ i will wager you wont...... while the fiat payback will be significantly devalued......

Edited October 4, 2021 by HerefordBullyun

[Martlet]

54 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

.. Enjoy your margret thatcher flag waving keynesian baby boomer banking cartel delusion....  

Couldnt let that pass, Thatcher a Keynesian? 

[Martlet]

38 minutes ago, Bigmarc said:

Had a quick look around and so far all I can gather is the LBMA has a exemption. So currently not going to happen. But you know how these things are, different interpretations all over the place.

LMBA is a group, so they are not exempt.  Their members, banks and traders, may have to concern themselves with Basel III.  The banks holding on account for others shouldnt be affected as it's not their asset.  The banks holding for ETFs wouldnt be affected as they're allocated (officially at least), and not on their balance sheet. The banks holding on own account for their balance sheet will be affected. 

Edited October 1, 2021 by Martlet

[Bigmarc]

10 minutes ago, Martlet said:

LMBA is a group, so they are not exempt.  Their members, banks and traders, may have to concern themselves with Basel III.  The banks holding on account for others shouldnt be affected as it's not their asset.  The banks holding for ETFs wouldnt be affected as they're allocated (officially at least), and not on their balance sheet. The banks holding on own account for their balance sheet will be affected. 

Thanks I think it's made it a little clearer. The way I read it was not the rules that had changed but the classification of gold as a asset. It and other commodities had been classed in a lower bracket. So not classed as a high liquid asset but a commodity on market.

[HawkHybrid]

1 hour ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Of course it is. Why would you pay for something you not going to get.

so all forms of credit is illegal, or should be?

(I hope you're making purchases with your credit card because you haven't paid £'s into it yet. it's funny money that?)

 

HH

Edited October 1, 2021 by HawkHybrid

[Minimalist]

2 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

currently 1 billion toz sellers and buyers are agreeing to make the trade in silver at the current prices($22).

as I've asked @Minimalist many times without an answer

I dont know how many times I have told you, these contracts dont have the supply. I have asked you proof of that 45% annual supply of short the other day. You resorted to your usual tactics of dismissing proof and throwing ad homiens to @sixgun direction and Andrew McGuire.

You believe its honest to manipulate the markets through banker paper. I dont.

Until you accept the Banker is a thief the better.

[Minimalist]

9 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

so all forms of credit is illegal, or should be?

Explain to me where the "money" comes from on a mortgage, HH. The Banker advertises it "lends", it cannot lend because it never had the money in the first place. These things are unacceptable - enslaving millions of people into bondage. Its immoral and unacceptable. Honest money is a direct threat to the Cartel, its functions, propaganda and dealings. 

[Bars]

@Minimalist are you a jeweller? 

[silversky]

7 hours ago, Martlet said:

There's a difference between supporting and accepting.  I do the latter and treat metals as a hedge against a reaction to the excess.  As part of that acceptance, I dont buy into the thesis that, with a playground of trillions of $ in hundreds of different markets, there is a group out to suppress two markets long term.  It is difficult and expensive to push down prices over long periods, I'm yet to hear where the unmet demand is that's being suppressed all this time. 

The unmet demand is allegedly being satisfied with ancient bars which will soon run out!  Bars which are over a hundred years old and therefore must be coming from the back of nearly empty vaults!

Maybe this is true, and maybe it isn't, but it certainly makes a compelling and exciting story!

All of the big moves in human affairs require a compelling story.  A story which sounds true, and implies a secret that only a clever few possess.  Stories like that can lure in vast numbers and change the course of history.  Wars are fought over fictional WMD's that never existed, and huge profits are made producing cures for illnesses that are mostly harmless.  Otherwise intelligent people, often get caught up in these powerful memes (Richard Dawkins original definition circa "the selfish gene") and in many ways it's one of the colourful things that makes life so interesting and exciting.

The Silver bullion market certainly doesn't disappoint, and it has more than its fair share of compelling stories flying around.  I must admit that I do enjoy reading them, and that I enjoy letting their tantalising intricacies play across my mind.  But I always try to remind myself that Silver is just a plain old boring commodity these days, and it has absolutely nothing to do with being real money.

The odd sparkle from time to time suggests that maybe one day it'll regain its former glory, but an older and wiser self tucks that idea away, knowing that only catastrophe will bring about that outcome.  When I was younger I would have rated the chance of catastrophe as very very low.  But there have been far too many other unrelated moves which are putting big fat fingers on those scales all across the world.  I now rank catastrophe (in my lifetime) as medium risk, and this is why I possess physical.  It's a hedge against an event I don't want to see.

As I've said before, the system is so inherently corrupt now, that it's impossible to change it through political means. Very few people have the capacity to understand why the system is so corrupt, let alone vote for someone who might set it straight.  Every single restraint on free market capitalism has slowly been subverted and twisted into rules and procedures that often resemble the complete opposite of their original protective intent.  The merchant class now dominate every sphere of life, and they hold complete dominion over the west.  This is why it's dying at such a rapidly increasing pace.  There are no modern day Andrew Jacksons waiting to wrestle the ring of power off these vipers.  Our political classes have ALL been bought up by the merchants and they have betrayed us.  It's therefore simply a matter of time before complete collapse causes war and destruction.  But things can struggle on for far longer than one imagines, and this is why I rank it only as medium risk in my lifetime.

There's a very good reason why the merchant class have historically been regarded as one of the lowest in society all around the world.  When kept in check, they provide a valuable service like many of the other classes, but allowed free reign and dominion, they devour a society from within, trading their way up to being gods.  It's precisely because of their inherent greed, that some societies specifically retain their ancient usury laws.  These laws provide a very real threat of capitol punishment for those who would attempt to steal their way to the top,

Edited October 1, 2021 by silversky
spelling

[Minimalist]

2 minutes ago, Bars said:

@Minimalist are you a jeweller? 

Nah, I swing trade and co-own a family cleaning business.

[Bars]

1 minute ago, Minimalist said:

Nah, I swing trade and co-own a family cleaning business.

Nice. I only ask because you are always dropping gems!

[Gruff]

2 minutes ago, Bars said:

Nice. I only ask because you are always dropping gems!

Truth bombs more like it! 

[sixgun]

The metal markets are mainly paper contracts. The metals are currencies. The London spot gold and silver market is primarily an FX currency market. The metals are counter currencies - they stand counter to national fiat currencies. This is for sure with gold but somewhat less with silver b/c of its other uses.
What factors are used to price gold (and silver)? It is mainly other currencies, interest rates, bond rates. The price of gold and silver moves hard with financial and banking news b/c they are financial 'products'. 
Some people call them commodities and don't believe they are money and currencies, but you only have to look at the price chart around FOMC, NFP announcements to realise they do not behave like commodities - they behave like a financial product. 

The futures market for gold was set up following the USD coming off the gold standard and US citizens being allowed to own gold. US citizens cannot trade on the spot market - they are captives of this futures market. In the Wikileaks leaked document it is clear the reason for the COMEX was to get Americans into paper contracts and keep them away from physical. You can have resources diverted from physical into a paper contract with no physical behind it. Until recently the COMEX was all but an undeliverable market. Many brokers will close futures positions at expiration and do not allow an investor to take delivery. 

The GLD and SLV are similar surrogates. Ordinary people buy these - they think they own gold and silver but they can never take delivery. How much is really backing these ETF's is not really known. Many don't believe there is as much as there is claimed to be and if there is some would question if that gold / silver hasn't been borrowed / lent out. Indeed gold in the GLD is borrowed for the Bank of England and so one might say it doesn't really exist.

There are many stories about investors who invested in unallocated bullion who then went to take delivery only to be told - sorry - here's your cash now clear off. Legally there doesn't have to be any gold / silver. Money which was intended to go into metal is taken by the bullion banks are used elsewhere. There never was any metal. It appears there are these hoards of physical gold / silver when in reality there is nothing but paper certificates. We also get metal rehypothecated. It is apparently legal to rehypothecate to infinity in the City. Metal can be used as collateral multiple times so there are multiple claims on the same bars. 

So for every ounces of real metal there is, there are many, many more of fictional metal. Some people might consider it fraud but this is banking and they do this sort of thing. i am not even covering all the antics on the markets carried out to rinse investors out, to create negative sentiment, then often misleading views coming from the controlled financial media output. 

People like those on this forum who hold actual physical are in the minority. The aim has been to keep us in the minority. If even a small fraction of investments went into allocated physical metal the price would have to climb much, much higher. Instead much of the small fraction that actually goes into 'metal' is conned into unallocated non-existent metal, into ETF's with dubious reserves and the casino of the futures market. Those who want large amounts of physical do not pay the paper price - there are premiums to pay. Some silver refiners are sold out for the rest of the year, so you won't get anything from them. When there is such dislocation between physical and paper - one might ask what is the paper market? What does it actually represent other than a dot on a screen.

[SidS]

11 minutes ago, sixgun said:

...one might ask what is the paper market? What does it actually represent other than a dot on a screen.

Smoke and mirrors.

[silversky]

Bringing us a little bit closer to being on topic (wrong currency I know), the price of silver in USD has now just risen above last week's close.  Price in GBP is already strongly above last week's close but that's less important than the dollar close.

Last week and yesterday it certainly looked bleak.  Those pesky kids were at it again, taking out the stops before running for cover.  But I still remain confident in my prediction last week, that the bottom will be in by the end of this week.  As reiterated yesterday at the low, I expect to see a close above last week's.

[SidS]

I know inflation has been mentioned earlier in this thread. Both the Telegraph and Daily Express have flagged that inflation is a concern in the EU now, running over 3%, similar to what the BOE reported last month or so.

It's trickling through... Or at least their ability to imply it is under control seems to be slipping?

[SidS]

Oh and there's another one, these seem to be coming in thicker and faster.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/global-economy-facing-bout-of-stagflation-as-soaring-prices-and-chaos-in-supply-chains-and-energy-market-wreak-havoc-for-businesses/ar-AAP3ck5?ocid=mailsignout&li=BBoPWjQ

 

Edited to add: I particularly like the quote "inflation is suddenly everywhere..."

Hmm well, didn't see that coming. 🤔

Edited October 1, 2021 by SidS
Extra info.