Central banks are net buyers of gold

[Rains]

44 minutes ago, James32 said:

Any spare?

Insert Homer walking into bush gif

[Zhorro]

Central bank gold buying hits all-time quarterly record in Q3’22:

https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q3-2022/central-banks

[HerefordBullyun]

Not just central banks seem to be some whales about

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/gold-market-roiled-mystery-buyer-waves-300-tonnes 

[Rains]

2 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Not just central banks seem to be some whales about

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/gold-market-roiled-mystery-buyer-waves-300-tonnes 

I see @James32 has been busy 😄

[HerefordBullyun]

1 minute ago, Rains said:

I see @James32 has been busy 😄

took the words right out my mouth!

[James32]

Just now, HerefordBullyun said:

took the worms right out my mouth! Love you Rains my wee Teddy bear.

Keep on topic please.

[PhilOdgny]

https://frisby.substack.com/p/central-bank-gold-buying-at-record

[Zhorro]

Central Banks have not bought as much gold since 1967:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/central-bank-losses-make-them-buy-record-amounts-gold

[ZRPMs]

I came across this bit of info. Its about 5 months old but of all the professions that have increased their private purchases recently. Private investment bankers and brokers along with Doctors. Not sure how accurate it is, but it supposedly came from a survey of purchases from a number of large dealers.

[Bratnia]

On 08/05/2020 at 23:24, Prophecy said:

I still believe there has to be a reason why Gordon Brown announced the bulk sale before it happened. There has to be a cunning reason.... right? (I believe the money raised was invested in a higher return asset but why announce the sale?! it immediately depressed the sale price when he eventually sold!)

Brown sold gold to buy Euro's in support of the new currency.

Why he announced the intent and the method (auctions) ??? Perhaps there was a reason to induce lower gold prices, relatively strengthen currency.

[Bratnia]

On 04/01/2023 at 19:41, Zhorro said:

Central Banks have not bought as much gold since 1967:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/central-bank-losses-make-them-buy-record-amounts-gold

Since 2013 Yellen has seemingly sought to transition the US$ to a multi-currency type "gold standard", that includes gold. Look at a chart of US$/gold since 2013 and broadly that's flat(ish).

TINA - there is no alternative (to the US$) has increasingly seen alternatives being proposed/adopted. The US was at risk of the $ being dropped for such alternatives by the likes of India, China, Russia, S. America, Iran/Arabia ... etc., a large proportion of the global population. Where gold and multiple currency alternatives could be adopted as that alternative. The US answer is seemingly to peg the US$ to such a cluster, that includes gold.

I believe something like 60% of US reserves are now in the form of gold, which I guess is dynamically traded to keep the US$ better aligned with gold. Which has had some question why gold hasn't 'performed as expected' with rising inflation/fear/uncertainties and instead, in US$ terms remained flat.

When on the gold standard - pre 1931 UK, pre 1933 US, it made more sense to hold money, deposited to earn interest (Treasury Bills/Notes/Bonds), as with a fixed gold/money conversion rate that was like the state paying you for it to securely store your gold. If, as it seems, the US$ has returned to a (albeit more volatile/dynamic) gold standard of sorts, then equally it may become more appropriate to hold US$'s, deposited to earn interest, than it is to hold gold. Which obviously the US would prefer over that of investors holding gold (and others maybe selling/dumping US$'s). Such pegging however has finite life before a review becomes necessary, as otherwise the US couldn't continue to print/spend money and export inflation onto others (nor source large-scale military funding etc.). So 2013 could have been the start of a step/plateau gold price era. In which case holding gold is still reasonable, as sooner or later its price in US$ terms will step up.

Personally I'm more content with a 50/50 US$/gold barbell - that combines to a central bullet (similar to how a barbell of 1 and 20 year treasury combine to a central 10 year bullet), with the US$ invested in US stocks, than I would be in holding a bond bullet. I don't get bonds, pension funds are forced to buy them, and you're lending to someone who sets the rules/terms, the interest rates, the taxation rates and they can even direct inflation (print/spend money). A table with the odds heavily in their favour.

Edited January 6, 2023 by Bratnia

[Stacktastic]

I might be proved wrong but I cant see them restricting themselves into a gold standard again? 
I guess if it gets rid of all debt that would work well for them against the BRICS
Nesarer Gesara (a spiritual thing) has been predicting this for ages. 

I do get the impression they are trying as hard as they can to crash the system though
im dubious if the powers to be want it to stabilise. 'you will own nothing and be happy'. 

All routes to me (on this timeline anyway) lead to universal credit and CBDC's. 
I guess thats the utopian dream and 2020 showed that they loose more battles than they win even when piiissing trillions up the wall. 😛 

Edited January 7, 2023 by Stacktastic

[Bratnia]

Somewhat bizarrely I suspect the Tories want a house price crash, as-is many of youth wont vote Tory in part because they aren't or cannot become home-owners, whilst those that are homeowners are largely elderly and in decline. A house price crash would potentially yield more potential Tory voters than it lost. As you suggest, increasingly moving to the Chinese model, tracked and traced everywhere, and where the state controls/owns all.

[katyc]

6 hours ago, Stacktastic said:

I might be proved wrong but I cant see them restricting themselves into a gold standard again? 

This would be amazing. But the gov can't control it (they can't print more gold like they can cash which allows them to spend spend spend) meaning they are restricted on their greed. So I think they will try avoid that. Then again, the BRICS currency is likely to be (at least partly) backed by gold so they may have to compete. Let's hope so! 🤞

Edited January 6, 2023 by katyc

[katyc]

6 hours ago, Stacktastic said:

I do get the impression they are trying as hard as they can to crash the system though

I believe this too. Perfect opportunity to blame external factors (Pandemic + war) for the high costs of living and economy collapsing, so that people don't revolt on the streets when CBDC is forced upon us. Most people will be manipulated in believing it's the virus + Putin's fault instead of having the intelligence to realise that it was the Gov who caused it: Furlough was excessive and caused inflation + Sanctions (the reason no one can afford their bills) were not actually necessary and make no difference to the war (the war that has two sides to the story and we should be keep out of before millions end up homeless!)

Edited January 6, 2023 by katyc

[Bratnia]

15 hours ago, katyc said:

This would be amazing. But the gov can't control it (they can't print more gold like they can cash which allows them to spend spend spend) meaning they are restricted on their greed. So I think they will try avoid that. Then again, the BRICS currency is likely to be (at least partly) backed by gold so they may have to compete. Let's hope so! 🤞

But they can massage prices. There's 100 times more paper-gold than physical gold, so to somewhat (not perfectly) align US Dollars with the price of gold, periodically the central bank might long dollar/short gold or short dollar/long gold perhaps by buying/selling 10x leveraged Options contracts. If that policy results in a broad US$ aligning with the price of gold type progression (repeating that chart I posted earlier)

... then internationally as others propose alternatives that include multiple elements - including gold, the US might say there's no need for a alternative as it would be no different to what was already the case with the US$.

[Bratnia]

In the 1970's there was much debasement of currencies. The Swiss and Japan were somewhat out of step with others, but have since more realigned.

After much printing of money, things levelled off for the next 25 or so years, 1980 though to mid 2000's. Since the financial crisis there's been much debasement again, but where perhaps with enough money (debt) having been created the expectancy might be for another flat 25 or so years, and where the US might have opted to somewhat peg to that (maintain by active trading US$ and gold, likely via paper-gold based leverage)

Gold across 1980 to 1999 tended to decline in nominal price, more so in real (after inflation) terms. Inciting those with money not to hold gold and instead invest in the likes of US$ (and hence US bonds or stocks). Assuming a repeat of 1980 having been started in 2013 by Yellen, maybe the US intent is rather than seeing the price of gold decline in nominal terms, to instead see its price in US$ terms remain flatish - with the desire being a "why opt for alternatives when the US$ is already relatively stable against gold" sales pitch for the next couple of decades. In effect a capping off of the massive US debt - as being ... large enough for a while (quarter of a century or maybe more).

If the price of gold remains flatish in US$ terms over many years (such as the last 10 years), then investors in gold will tend to lose interest, that the US desires, to instead either hold US$'s or where those US$'s are invested in US bonds and/or stocks. Thereby propping up the US$ as the "primary reserve" currency.

It would still be reasonable in my opinion to hold gold however, 50/50 US$/gold with the US$ invested in stocks, periodically (yearly) rebalanced, and the tendency would be similar to 1980 to 1999 where gold lagged stocks and you repeatedly sold some shares to buy ounces of gold. IIRC the 1980 to 1999 years for that resulted in something like 6 times more ounces of gold having been accumulated in your safe. But where unlike the 1980 to 1999 years where the price of gold declined in nominal terms, its price may remain more flat/level, which would tend to push the next large-debasement (when the price of gold soars) out further than 25 years, maybe instead of 2013 to 2038, perhaps to 2050. But as ever with fiat currencies, sooner or later they falter and those that had accumulated gold over years can see substantial 'catching up' of its price (large price increases over a relatively short period of time).

Perhaps rather than any new investor lumping into 50/50 stock/gold now, a better alternative might be to simply just add some gold each year, average in over many years, maybe in acceptance that the price may move relatively little, in effect building up reserves in readiness for when the next big financial crisis hits/occurs. A factor there is that the frequency of financial crisis has been tending to increase, they occur more often, considerably more so since having ended the gold standard. It's all too easy for one government or another to use print/spend as a problem exit door. Such that we might not have to wait until 2050, but instead see a much earlier gold price spike/fiat currency crisis.

 

[CollectForFun]

49 minutes ago, Bratnia said:

(repeating that chart I posted earlier)

 

What's this chart by the way? Upthread you say it's US$/gold? What ratio exactly?

[Bratnia]

3 minutes ago, CollectForFun said:

What's this chart by the way? Upthread you say it's US$/gold? What ratio exactly?

It's the price of gold in US$ (as sourced from PortfolioVisualizer) PV relative to a $10,000 initial portfolio value

Edited January 7, 2023 by Bratnia

[Bratnia]

Would perhaps have been better had I based it to the end of December 2012 US$ gold price of $1664

When I do that however, to the end of 2012, PV and it indicates a $1742 final value/price, compared to a actual $1824 end of 2022 spot gold price. The difference I suspect is that PV seem to discount for costs, where that difference amounts to a 0.46%/year cost. So PV is more reflective of actual investment returns rather than mathematical/gross (spot price) returns.

[katyc]

2 hours ago, Bratnia said:

But they can massage prices. There's 100 times more paper-gold than physical gold, so to somewhat (not perfectly) align US Dollars with the price of gold, periodically the central bank might long dollar/short gold or short dollar/long gold perhaps by buying/selling 10x leveraged Options contracts. If that policy results in a broad US$ aligning with the price of gold type progression (repeating that chart I posted earlier)

... then internationally as others propose alternatives that include multiple elements - including gold, the US might say there's no need for a alternative as it would be no different to what was already the case with the US$.

Yes, that is a good point as the Comex and the like are definitely manipulated. If the next Fiat was backed by gold I think the comex would be drained and the truth would come out (that there's nowhere near as much physical).

But then again, look what the Hunt Brothers did in the 80s with silver for example.... I can't remember the exact story without reading it up, but I recall they pretty much bought up the comex - cornered the market - and silver rocketed to $50. The fact that the comex was manipulated was about to come out - so the gov put a ban silver and stopped it happening. The government then dug up bits of dirt on the brothers to try make them look like criminals. Apparently they were no angels, but the gov used that to save themselves from the truth coming out.

I really hope it does come out one day about the comex. I hear platinum is due to be drained first, then silver, then gold. But manipulation and corruption will always be a huge barrier. I try to tell myself "the truth will come out in the end" 🤞

Edited January 7, 2023 by katyc

[HerefordBullyun]

9 minutes ago, katyc said:

I really hope it comes out one day about the comex. I hear platinum is due to be drained first, then silver, then gold. But manipulation and corruption will always be a huge barrier. I try to tell myself "the truth will come out in the end" 🤞

I reckon it will be Platinum second, Silver will go first. industrial demand is far higher with silver than platinum. Remember silver has more industrial demand than Pt, as its already so expensive, but probably still undervalued in real terms, all like PMs due to manipulation and inflation. When it blows - its going to rocket.... like my avatar picture

Edited January 7, 2023 by HerefordBullyun

[katyc]

P.S. They say gold is around 100 x short of comex and silver as much as 250 x short. Imagine that? Every ounce of silver has 250 people thinking they own it (gold, 100)

I guess they can roughly work out what's been mined vs comex numbers which shows the manipulation. Also, in the govs best interest to make it look like we have more PMs than physical as that suppresses it's price. I guess they want us to think gold and silver is worth much less because 1) they want our attention away from PMs and money in the bank where they can use spend it and 2) when fiat currency collapses (as all currency always do eventually), then the banks can buy up gold and silver to protect themselves for the collapse.

Oh, what a coincidence.... Banks all over the world have just bought more gold than they have since the 60s..... 🤔

They already know what's coming and the (unaware) people will be the unfortunate victims that are last to know.

[katyc]

2 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

I reckon it will be Platinum second, Silver will go first. industrial demand is far higher with silver than platinum. Remember silver has more industrial demand than Pt, as its already so expensive, but probably still undervalued in real terms, all like PMs due to manipulation and inflation. When it blows - its going to rocket.... like my avatar picture

We can but hope 🤞🤞🤞😁

When PMs get to a certain level in the impending recession, I'm guessing they'll hit the media stories (more than ever before - because in previous bull runs there wasn't so many on social media as there are today).

My hope is that once the popular YouTube and TikTok scrotes (usually not much older than a fetus) start talking about it. Then the masses will buy - based on excitement and emotion - meaning pew, pew, pew! 🚀

(Especially silver as the kids can afford that easier. And when they realise how important it is for green energy they'll all bab their scruds in the excitement while TSF members sell, sell, sell! 💰 

[katyc]

Crypto looks like it'll be regulated in the not-too-distant future. When that happens the "big money" could flood in there (later in the year perhaps) so I'm even thinking in dabbling there too in case they steal attention from our lovely PMs. No harm spreading risk I guess. But I need to do more research first. 

Edited January 7, 2023 by katyc