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SilverApe

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    London
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My Precious Metals

  • Metals I am interested in
    Silver
    Gold
    Platinum
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    Bullion
    Collectible bullion & Semi Numismatics
    Numismatics (Proof coins)
    High Premium Numismatics & Collectibles (Premium Proof and premium collectible coins)
  • My current Stack/Collection is mainly
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    Gold
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  1. An interesting read. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/83-tons-fake-gold-bars-gold-market-rocked-massive-china-counterfeiting-scandal
  2. @Melon just a little private joke. There is a long thread on this forum started by @Wongerwho thinks that the gold price will fall longer term. I thought you might be in the same school of thought
  3. Ah, we have a disciple of The School of Wongernomics.
  4. I think you have answered your own question. Central banks are untrusted, everyone is debt-ridden, and the ground work for basic income (helicopter money). All of this leads to the conclusion of the end of the monetary system, therefore the safety of metal as an intermediary product comes to play. I agree that the BoE can't be trusted with what they say, but I think it will be hard to justifiy with the public, having to endure QE, low rates, corporate corruption (Wirecard), and then live through the con of austerity to be then told "ooops, we need more dough". Out of curiosity what do you think will happen after the bail-ins? and do you think the new monetary system wil have gold as a denominator? edit: Link for you too https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-declining-real-rates-to-lift-the-yellow-metal-above-1800-tds-202006261322
  5. @sstrrs interesting point about central bank but Andrew Bailey of BoE wrote in The Times and Bloomberg that balance sheet normalisation is a goal and that guarantee of bailouts is not certain. That leads to the conclusion that bail in is more probable. If central bank opt for bank bail in with the banks themselves then I dont think it would be a policy as this is the norm. I sense Andrew bailey wants to get to a pre-2008 system. Money velocity (or lack thereof) is to my mind a condition of aggregate demand. If a majority of consumers dont have the surplus spending then it won't translate into overall demand, hence spending, and thus money velocity. Given the wealth disparity the money velocity will only lower until more emphasis is placed on equitable taxation, higher monetary value on labour not capital, and deleveraging. The central banks are attempting deleveraging and that isn't working out too well. I doubt fairer taxes and higher wages would be equally hard. My bet is on uncontrolled inflation, bank bail in at retail level, and new monetary standard. The brown stuff has hit the fan before and human stupidity will ensure it will happen again.
  6. Free public banking was debated in the HoC and it was viewed as a public service, hence no fees. When banks hold cash it's worth noting that it's not cash per say but more of "cash equivalents" that might be short dated bonds gov or otherwise. Also, I dont think anyone here has mentioned the chance if a bail-in instead of the BoE bail-out as before. That is far easier to do as deposits are owned by the bank already. The FSCS (I think) has a limit of 80k but who is to say that can't drop to 20k in a week?
  7. Why not use the follwing? http://www.cruzis-coins.com/sovs/Sovmintage.html
  8. Regarding prices, we could be in a period of stagflation where some goods rise, others fall, and some remain unchanged. I think that's where we are now. Airline flights, cruises, restaurants prices, and cars are all cheap, but then food and alcohol is on the rise.
  9. I'll have a stab at this. It comes down to a liquidity crisis. In every market there are stratas of investors; institutional, retail, hedge funds and many others. In the event of a sharp loss in the stock market or somewhere else, gold holdings might be sold off to cover those losses, or previously held longs/shorts would be unwound. This was obsevered during the 07/08 crisis when the price fell as there was a run for cash (or cash equivalents), which means the gold price fell as there were fewer bids up. Personally, I can't see a fall in price as we are technicallly already in a deflationary period as seen by the central banks' worry to keep pumping money to get the inflation target of 2% realised. Money suppy, M2, M3 has expanded enormously, and gold's ability to keep accounting for this, if not magical in some sense, is really telling of what is to come. I think there is going to be a delay of around 3-4 years before we see an unrelenting uptrend as either the pumped money sees a reckoning as currency value is massively devalued. Attached image shows how gold, through the market, seems to be able to price monetary expansion. But then, this interview from some years ago highlights how it could simulataneously over-valued. https://m.investing.com/analysis/paul-van-eeden-on-why-gold-is-overvalued-145483 The chart in the link shows how gold has over-run the M2, M3 supply, but in fairness, the pumping today as caught up with gold value. From my point of view, it's another leg upwards.
  10. Chinese nationals have been ingenious in their way to skit capital controls, bticoin, gold, family going overseas, investment visa, tax allowances, special purpose offshore vehicles, HK citizenship, the works. I'm sure a tax lawyer can provide another 20 methods using Singapore alone. As someone who lived in China I can say that most Chinese people don't truly believe in the longevity of their current system, so pay back on bonds? It's a shame really.
  11. Ebay has it listed for around £1,990 and upwards, I can't seem to find any completed auctions with real bids. Seems like it is indeed above gold price.
  12. I think you may have missed what I said previously. We could have real negative rates if we get 1% interest at the bank but then inflation at 5%, then real rates are -4%. It depends what you mean by negative rates, because any interest rate is caluculated after inflation. We may never see a negative number but inflation may make it a reality.
  13. Best not to. But also, the recycling rate of copper is ridiculously high, it's almost as high as gold
  14. I read some time ago that negative rates encouraged people to save more and thus had the opposite desired effect. We may have positive nominal rates but the real yield might be lower. I suspect we will get real negative rates but not nominal.
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