Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only

[Earthmetal]

Doesn't the overnight "outside hours trading" also occur at the weekend?

 

[CANV]

in the modern world early Friday knock offs no longer exist.   big funds may call it a day,  the the lower classes are always at it, and always on the screens.  liquidity will fall. volatility will rise   

 

either  way its irrelevant    if its going up its going up.  if it isn't.  it isn't.     

[Midasfrog]

Its been a rollercoaster year for gold with plenty of ups and downs 😀

Are we about to see a big dip in January through to February and March 🤔

A reminder that on March 4th 2021 gold hit a low of £1227 before climbing again 

[katyc]

Is it January when the USA citizens tax year ends? If so, then I'm guessing they sell off investments/assets to maximise their allowances for the financial year which would cause a reduction in PM prices. This is just off the top of my head and perhaps I am way off - but wondering if anyone else knows anything about this and can confirm? I like to know the "why/how" behind patterns. Great buying opportunity if so! (Shame I've now't left to spend after a really shiiiiite Christmas retail season 🙄. My worse in 12 years thanks to that lovely Furlough and Sanctions the Gov have caused. The purse strings are well and truly tightening out there by the look of it.)

Edited December 22, 2022 by katyc

[SiCole]

3 minutes ago, katyc said:

 (Shame I've now't left to spend after a really shiiiiite Christmas retail season 🙄. My worse in 12 years thanks to that lovely Furlough and Sanctions the Gov have caused. The purse strings are well and truly tightening out there by the look of it.)

I've never seen anything like it. I have parts dealers of mine looking for second jobs. Ive even had to ask James32 for pocket money for Tudor Beasts.

[Skyfiller]

23 minutes ago, SiCole said:

I've never seen anything like it. I have parts dealers of mine looking for second jobs. Ive even had to ask James32 for pocket money for Tudor Beasts.

Ye, it’s a real odd one. I run a few largish events (5-8k people) and there is no shortage of people wanting to get out and about but once in the event keep their hands in their pockets. I recon every event this year has had record attendance along with probably its worst take 🤷‍♂️

[Zeuk]

1 minute ago, Skyfiller said:

Ye, it’s a real odd one. I run a few largish events (5-8k people) and there is no shortage of people wanting to get out and about but once in the event keep their hands in their pockets. I recon every event this year has had record attendance along with probably its worst take 🤷‍♂️

Presumably due to price inflation, 5£ a pint, 5£ a burger etc.  

[Skyfiller]

2 minutes ago, Zeuk said:

Presumably due to price inflation, 5£ a pint, 5£ a burger etc.  

ye, recon your correct there @Zeuk. Especially with the burger. All event food vendors round here are now £7-10 a burger.

[katyc]

30 minutes ago, SiCole said:

I've never seen anything like it. I have parts dealers of mine looking for second jobs. Ive even had to ask James32 for pocket money for Tudor Beasts.

 

2 minutes ago, Skyfiller said:

Ye, it’s a real odd one. I run a few largish events (5-8k people) and there is no shortage of people wanting to get out and about but once in the event keep their hands in their pockets. I recon every event this year has had record attendance along with probably its worst take 🤷‍♂️

Sorry if I'm sounding a bit dumb but are you guys talking about car industry (as you mentioned parts)? I hear it's in trouble because used prices rocketed (due to Covid stopping production of new cars), so now that people are skint and not buying, the dealers are over stocked - with the stock they paid too much for - and now repossessions are kicking in, meaning even more over supply. I have a friend who works for BMW (sales team) and there's talks of huge lay offs (not sure which departments exactly).

BTW, I'm selling low value items on the internet (£12-19). But in huge quantities at Christmas (well, not so much this year). I flew through the 2008 recession, but this time around it's different. The cost of living is affecting everyone's daily spending so it's way worse. And this is before recession has officially been announced. It's gonna get so ugly out there. 😔

So we many not see the usual January PM price drop this time around.... 

I'm predicting by March, when the winter bills kick in (for businesses who are also getting no sales), then the lay offs are going to really kick in, unemployment at a record high and the interest rates really start to pivot (always happens with mass unemployment). So "Kerching!" day for the PMs. I am expecting a huge hike in 2023 - but they'll hike way way more over several years as this recession is gonna be longer than anything we've ever seen (in my humble opinion of course. I do hope I'm wrong as it's gonna be bloody miserable for most!)

 

[Petra]

45 minutes ago, katyc said:

 

Sorry if I'm sounding a bit dumb but are you guys talking about car industry (as you mentioned parts)? I hear it's in trouble because used prices rocketed (due to Covid stopping production of new cars), so now that people are skint and not buying, the dealers are over stocked - with the stock they paid too much for - and now repossessions are kicking in, meaning even more over supply. I have a friend who works for BMW (sales team) and there's talks of huge lay offs (not sure which departments exactly).

BTW, I'm selling low value items on the internet (£12-19). But in huge quantities at Christmas (well, not so much this year). I flew through the 2008 recession, but this time around it's different. The cost of living is affecting everyone's daily spending so it's way worse. And this is before recession has officially been announced. It's gonna get so ugly out there. 😔

So we many not see the usual January PM price drop this time around.... 

I'm predicting by March, when the winter bills kick in (for businesses who are also getting no sales), then the lay offs are going to really kick in, unemployment at a record high and the interest rates really start to pivot (always happens with mass unemployment). So "Kerching!" day for the PMs. I am expecting a huge hike in 2023 - but they'll hike way way more over several years as this recession is gonna be longer than anything we've ever seen (in my humble opinion of course. I do hope I'm wrong as it's gonna be bloody miserable for most!)

 

Someone I know sells reasonably low priced items on Etsy. This Christmas has been lower sales than previous, however, international sales have still been good, people happy with paying the postage. Trouble on Etsy is the high costs, worse than eBay 🤔🫢

[katyc]

6 minutes ago, Petra said:

Someone I know sells reasonably low priced items on Etsy. This Christmas has been lower sales than previous, however, international sales have still been good, people happy with paying the postage. Trouble on Etsy is the high costs, worse than eBay 🤔🫢

I used to sell to different EU countries and it did really well (especially Germany) but it got really complex with different VAT obligations (Germany alone expect VAT returns every month - what a headache!)

Edited December 22, 2022 by katyc

[Paul]

23 minutes ago, Petra said:

Someone I know sells reasonably low priced items on Etsy. This Christmas has been lower sales than previous, however, international sales have still been good, people happy with paying the postage. Trouble on Etsy is the high costs, worse than eBay 🤔🫢

Royal mail is the reason for lower UK sales 

[Earthmetal]

21 hours ago, CANV said:

in the modern world early Friday knock offs no longer exist.   big funds may call it a day,  the the lower classes are always at it, and always on the screens.

I'm going by James Rickards, he quotes a study that showed markets 'crashing' towards the end of the day, so after hours traders can buy cheaply.

[Earthmetal]

1 hour ago, katyc said:

 And this is before recession has officially been announced. It's gonna get so ugly out there. 😔

So we may not see the usual January PM price drop this time around.... 

I'm predicting by March, when the winter bills kick in (for businesses who are also getting no sales), then the lay offs are going to really kick in, unemployment at a record high and the interest rates really start to pivot (always happens with mass unemployment). So "Kerching!" day for the PMs. I am expecting a huge hike in 2023 - but they'll hike way way more over several years as this recession is gonna be longer than anything we've ever seen (in my humble opinion of course. I do hope I'm wrong as it's gonna be bloody miserable for most!)

 

I'll be amazed if you're wrong. That said, I'm still waiting for the big down turn I predicted almost a year ago, incredible they've hung on this long.

[katyc]

4 minutes ago, Paul said:

Royal mail is the reason for lower UK sales 

Yes, that's a huge part of it for sure. Although Amazon only use RM for piddly items (usually a few quid), so shouldn't have made much difference (if anything customers would stick with Amazon when shopping online and increase sales on there because of the strikes and Amazon's good refund policy). I really think the main issue is that people simply can't afford to spend as much. Food and energy prices are insane. 

[katyc]

4 minutes ago, Earthmetal said:

That said, I'm still waiting for the big down turn I predicted almost a year ago, incredible they've hung on this long.

Yeah, I thought the same but perhaps the war fears kept the prices up (and now inflation is making sure they'll stay up there).

[Bigmarc]

11 hours ago, katyc said:

Sorry if I'm sounding a bit dumb but are you guys talking about car industry (as you mentioned parts)? I hear it's in trouble because used prices rocketed (due to Covid stopping production of new cars), so now that people are skint and not buying, the dealers are over stocked - with the stock they paid too much for - and now repossessions are kicking in, meaning even more over supply. I have a friend who works for BMW (sales team) and there's talks of huge lay offs (not sure which departments exactly)

There is still some sort of shinanigans going on with trade with China especially the chips. I work for one of the largest manufacturer's of vehicles in the world (bottom end). In the last 6 months production has barely worked a full week, not because of lack of orders but parts and logistics. I can see them running two shifts instead of three next year and getting rid of nights this means about 2000 lay offs but this also happened after COVID. 

There has been a management restructure lately and many took voluntarily redundancy.

Edited December 23, 2022 by Bigmarc

[Bigmarc]

11 hours ago, Bigmarc said:

There is still some sort of shinanigans going on with trade with China especially the chips. I work for one of the largest manufacturer's of vehicles in the world (bottom end). In the last 6 months production has barely worked a full week, not because of lack of orders but parts and logistics. I can see them running two shifts instead of three next year and getting rid of nights this means about 2000 lay offs but this also happened after COVID. 

After rereading my post I must say I have fallen in the trap of being a little dramatic. The 2000 staff are temporary staff with two year contracts. They always get made redundant and the news are quick to report on this but don't report when they get rehired a few months later. Parts and logistics are a major problem because if you can't over supply, how does inflation come down? 

[Midasfrog]

12 hours ago, Paul said:

Royal mail is the reason for lower UK sales 

This is how most people now view the Royal Mail 

 

[Zeuk]

1 hour ago, Bigmarc said:

After rereading my post I must say I have fallen in the trap of being a little dramatic. The 2000 staff are temporary staff with two year contracts. They always get made redundant and the news are quick to report on this but don't report when they get rehired a few months later. Parts and logistics are a major problem because if you can't over supply, how does inflation come down? 

I read about the Jag layoffs too and they were agency staff, it really does go with the territory unfortunately of being a contractor or agency that they will be the first to be impacted when costs need cutting.  In some respects companies that do this are being pro-active in avoiding unnecessary perm redundancies, obviously not all companies will have this intent.

Im sure there will be some drop in demand but the impact to the car industry seems to be partly semi-conductor issues and also metal work from Ukraine is another reason i heard.  I picked up a couple of new cars this year and the waiting times were crazy, for some models well over a year.  But the second hand car i sold went for more to webuyanycar than the amount i bought it out of the lease for a few years before, so demand / supply still having some imbalance to the demand side.

[SidS]

47 minutes ago, Midasfrog said:

This is how most people now view the Royal Mail 

 

That's an improvement on what I was thinking! 😁

[Petra]

The Royal Mail may not be perfect, however, the other delivery companies are not exactly stepping up🤔 DPD can’t handle all the parcels they are getting, Hermes/evri .. we’ll if you want your coins slinging in anyones bin or over a fence … off you go.

Like alot of things in life, you don’t know what you have until it’s not there any more😮

don’t be tight, use special delivery! (Mostly ok😮)

[katyc]

2 hours ago, Bigmarc said:

After rereading my post I must say I have fallen in the trap of being a little dramatic. The 2000 staff are temporary staff with two year contracts. They always get made redundant and the news are quick to report on this but don't report when they get rehired a few months later. Parts and logistics are a major problem because if you can't over supply, how does inflation come down? 

Well hopefully (🤞), as you said it's the bottom end of the market, then I imagine that will fair better than more luxury brands, because people who usually go luxury can no longer afford the interest rates on their loans (hence go lower end) which puts you in a strong position. Kinda like Aldi in the supermarket world 😊

Edited December 23, 2022 by katyc

[Bigmarc]

1 hour ago, Zeuk said:

I read about the Jag layoffs too and they were agency staff, it really does go with the territory unfortunately of being a contractor or agency that they will be the first to be impacted when costs need cutting.  In some respects companies that do this are being pro-active in avoiding unnecessary perm redundancies, obviously not all companies will have this intent.

Don't quote me on this but I have a feeling that if you employ someone on a temporary basis over 24 months then the have the same rights as a permanent member of staff. So every 23 months they have a clear out. As for Jag, we are loosing a few to them that are in my role, the pay is a lot more and they are hiring a fair amount. 

1 hour ago, Zeuk said:

semi-conductor issues and also metal work from Ukraine is another reason i heard

Semiconductor's and water pumps are our main issues. We had a massive problem with transporter's, they use to charge £500 per transportation and when the contract came up for renewal they wanted £1200 per transportation. There was a stand off for quiet some time. Vehicle's everywhere, even parked Infront of coffee machines. 

I know we are way off topic here but I can't see inflation being sorted with just interest rises. There are just too many factors in play and the vehicles we build I would say are key to running of infrastructure. 

[katyc]

1 hour ago, Petra said:

The Royal Mail may not be perfect, however, the other delivery companies are not exactly stepping up🤔 DPD can’t handle all the parcels they are getting, Hermes/evri .. we’ll if you want your coins slinging in anyones bin or over a fence … off you go.

Like alot of things in life, you don’t know what you have until it’s not there any more😮

don’t be tight, use special delivery! (Mostly ok😮)

A DPD guy told us that he contracts to a guy who contracts to DPD and he made 12k in November alone. But he is working insane hours and had no life that month (no doubt worth it for thay pay!) They get offered side contracts by DPD and bonuses but have to work crazy for it (but he could be bragging and exaggerating).

Although, IMO that won't happen again (large pay opportunities) for at least a decade. Last RM mass strikes I recall was 2009 - near the last recession. It'll all do full circle again. Same ***t, different decade. People are stopping spending and the delivery firms won't know what's hit them. I think the RM strikes will backfire and there will be enormous layoffs.

I'm guessing lorry drivers are next. They've gone from great wages and being in crazy demand to (what I believe) will be twiddling their thumbs and lots more lay offs. 😕