Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only

[9x883]

1 minute ago, ant1882 said:

Can we count in prime numbers? Next prime number for the gold price would be £1931.

Fun fact, the atomic numbers of Gold and Silver are prime.

🤓

Written together they are not. Can you guess a nice product?

[James32]

£1928..I'm gonna need a bigger gate

[ant1882]

Just now, James32 said:

£1928..I'm gonna need a bigger gate

Oh it's bingo style now! 

[ant1882]

2 minutes ago, 9x883 said:

Written together they are not. Can you guess a nice product?

Lost me there (it's not difficult 😂).

[James32]

Just now, ant1882 said:

Oh it's bingo style now! 

At £1930.imma going to get dirty..

[theman73]

57 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Taken from the telegraph today

A powerful force is stalking the world’s gold market. It is operating in the shadows. 

None of the normal footprints are visible on the London bullion market or the Chicago Mercantile. Retail goldbugs have not been buyers: ETF gold funds have been shrinking since December. The crowd is piling into the Bitcoin scam instead.

Yet gold has smashed through a four-year barrier around $2,000 an ounce, rising in parabolic fashion since mid-February, and hitting an all-time high of $2,431 on April 11. Is somebody preparing for an escalation of the shadow Third World War?

“It is not a Western institution behind this. It is a massive player with very deep pockets. I have never seen this kind of buying before,” said Ross Norman, a veteran gold trader and now chief executive of Metals Daily.

Gold has been ratcheting up fresh records against the headwinds of a strong dollar, a 70 point jump in 10-year US Treasury yields, and hawkish talk from the Federal Reserve. This mix would normally spell trouble for gold.

Whoever it is – or they are – seems insensitive to cost. Central banks do not behave like this. “They buy on the London benchmark and they don’t chase the price,” said Mr Norman. This rally is happening off books in the OTC market. 

Yes, China’s central bank has been adding to its declared gold reserves for 17 consecutive months, part of the gradual portfolio shift away from US Treasuries and European bonds by the Global South. 

Dollar weaponisation since the war in Ukraine has unnerved every country aligned with the authoritarian axis of China and Russia. None can feel safe parking money in Western securities after Russia’s foreign reserves were frozen.

Yet the scale is modest. The World Gold Council said central banks bought a net 18 tonnes in February: 12 in China, six in Kazakhstan and India, four in Turkey, partly offset by Russian sales. This hardly moves the needle.

The Chinese people certainly have been buying gold, creating traffic jams at the Shuibei jewellery hub. Precious metal is the only refuge from the property crash and the slump on the Shanghai bourse. Tightening capital controls make it hard to smuggle serious sums abroad. 

But this alone cannot account for the price surge, either. Mr Norman says the gold flow to Asia has been within normal bounds.

So let me take two stabs at this mystery, one geopolitical and one financial. It has been clear for three years that Russia, China and Iran are operating in collusion, each feeding opportunistically on each other. All three have fostered belligerent hyper-nationalism as a means of regime survival, and all aim to press their advantage against a fatally complacent West before the window of opportunity closes.

This menace on three fronts has reached a dangerous juncture. None of the major democracies have put their economies on a war-time footing despite the obvious threat.

The West has dropped the ball on Ukraine – or worse, it is preventing Ukraine from hitting Russian oil facilities – and has therefore left the door wide open for a knock-out blow by the Kremlin this summer. 

Iran has been emboldened by Putin’s military comeback. It is also flush with money. Joe Biden is so worried about rising petrol prices that he has turned a blind eye to sanctions busting, letting Iran sell as much crude as it wants. This has enabled Tehran to advance its pawns in the Middle East, and now to risk a direct missile strike against Israel. 

The third shoe has yet to drop but China knows that the West has run down its stock of military kit trying to contain these other two crises. Xi Jinping may never have a better moment to tighten the noose on Taiwan with a naval and air blockade, gaining a stranglehold over the West’s supply of advanced semiconductors that can then be used as a bargaining chip. How would the democracies respond to this?

There is a strong suspicion among gold experts that China is behind the surge in buying, building up a war-fighting bullion chest through state-controlled banks and proxies. But others, too, can see that we are living through a fundamental convulsion of the global order, and that the dollarised financial system will not be the same at the end of it. Gold is the hedge against dystopia.

However, there is a parallel explanation. Covid finally broke our spendthrift governments. The talk in hedge fund land is that some big beasts are taking bets against “fiscal dominance” across the West.

It is a collective judgment that too many countries have pushed public debt beyond 100pc of GDP and beyond the point of no return under prevailing economic ideologies and political regimes. Budget deficits have broken out of historical ranges and are running at structurally untenable levels for this stage of the cycle. 

Central banks will bottle it – under this scenario – in order to mop up issuance of treasury bonds. They will let inflation run hot to help states whittle down debts by stealth default. You might argue that this is what they already did by letting rip with extreme money creation during the pandemic.

The Bank of Japan is refusing to raise rates above zero or halt bond purchases even though core inflation is 2.8pc and the Rengo wage round is running at 5.2pc. This is what a debt trap looks like. With a debt-to-GDP ratio above 260pc, Japan cannot return to sound money without risking a fiscal crisis.

Olivier Blanchard, global debt guru and former IMF chief economist, once told me how this would unfold by the mid-2020s. “One day the BoJ may get a call from the finance ministry saying please think about us – it is a life or death question – and keep rates at zero for a bit longer,” he said. 

The European Central Bank is also in a debt trap. It continued to buy buckets of Club Med bonds even when inflation was over 10pc. This was patently a fiscal rescue for semi-solvent states. The ECB has backed off for now but will be forced to shield Italy again with fiscal transfers disguised as QE in the next downturn.

The Fed has largely monetised the Trump-Biden jumbo deficits. It now faces an invidious choice: either it stays the course against inflation, at the risk of a US funding crisis, a commercial property/banking crisis, and recession, all ending in a return to QE and fiscal dominance; or it cuts rates hard and fast before inflation is under control, also ending in fiscal dominance. Is gold sniffing this out?

Of course, the gold spike may be nothing more than wolf pack speculation by funds orchestrating a squeeze on bullion shorts through the options market, knowing that this sets off a self-fueling feedback loop. If so, the rally will short-circuit soon enough.

My bet is that a big animal with a Chinese accent is bracing for geopolitical or monetary disorder on a traumatic scale.

Sounds like Blackrock's criminal style of doing business.

[ZRPMs]

One Nine Two Eight, Who do we appreciate. Scrooge McDuck 

[Aldebaran]

2 minutes ago, James32 said:

At £1930.imma going to get dirty..

Why isn’t there an 🙄 reaction - it’s perfect for you 😊

[Upsidedown]

8 minutes ago, ant1882 said:

Can we count in prime numbers? Next prime number for the gold price would be £1931.

Fun fact, the atomic numbers of Gold and Silver are prime.

🤓

@stefffana @Charliemouse

Something about prime numbers! Go!

[James32]

Just now, Aldebaran said:

Why isn’t there an 🙄 reaction - it’s perfect for you 😊

Stop trying to seduce me.

[ZRPMs]

3 minutes ago, James32 said:

4 minutes ago, Aldebaran said:

Why isn’t there an 🙄 reaction - it’s perfect for you 😊

Stop trying to seduce me.

Mr A has spoken with me and he said "If that @James32 tries it on with Mrs A, I'm gonna kick him in the "

[Bratnia]

59 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Quote

It is a collective judgment that too many countries have pushed public debt beyond 100pc of GDP and beyond the point of no return under prevailing economic ideologies and political regimes. Budget deficits have broken out of historical ranges and are running at structurally untenable levels for this stage of the cycle. 

In 2007 the UK had around £500Bn of debt, Gilts (debt) where paying around 5%, so servicing that debt cost around £25Bn/year. Much of the debt is deflated away over time (nominal Gilts). Then came the 2008/9 financial crisis, so since then the Bank of England has pretty much printed money, and bought up all of that 5% yield debt, to levels where it now holds getting on for 1Bn of Gilts ... and returns all of that interest back to the treasury (so as good as torn up debt). The treasury have issued another 1.5Bn of debt (Gilts) priced to around 2.5% interest rates, so costs around £30Bn/year to service. Inflation since 2007 is around 60%, so £25Bn/year in 2007 is in real terms more than £30Bn in 2024. The debt 'mountain' isn't a issue, the primary concern is deficit, spending (importing) more than you have coming in (export). Japan can run a debt of multiples of GDP because much of that debt is held domestically (which is just a internal money redistribution issue).

As each Gilt (bond) matures you have to decide whether to repay that, or roll it (sell another Gilt) - which is spread out over many years and each is assessed according to circumstances at the time (roll or repay).

The deficit since Covid has been a major issue. Sunak as Chancellor fouled up big-time. Truss/KK had the right idea but implementation was extremely poor, quangos pretty much threw a spanner into the works as they preferred Remain over Brexit. Sunak is a closet Remainer, gifted the EU Northern Ireland (Windsor agreement), along with other massively wasteful/lost spending (such as paying some £2500/month to stay at home during Covid, but not others, so had near zero effect/benefit, but at great cost. Contracts were also issued where the money was lost (stolen) and not trivial amounts either). High cost and inflation are largely attributable to Sunak.

Financial year ending March¹	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Deficit (£ billion)	83.1	55.6	55.1	39.1	59.4	327.6
Deficit (as % GDP)	4.3	2.7	2.6	1.8	2.6	15.3

Source: Office for National Statistics - UK government debt and deficit

[JamesH]

Back from work and way too many pages to catch up on. Just wanna know if @modofantasma got to display all the 1924’s when gold hit that price?

[Bratnia]

16 minutes ago, Bratnia said:

In 2007 the UK had around £500Bn of debt, Gilts (debt) where paying around 5%, so servicing that debt cost around £25Bn/year. Much of the debt is deflated away over time (nominal Gilts). Then came the 2008/9 financial crisis, so since then the Bank of England has pretty much printed money, and bought up all of that 5% yield debt, to levels where it now holds getting on for 1Bn of Gilts ... and returns all of that interest back to the treasury (so as good as torn up debt). The treasury have issued another 1.5Bn of debt (Gilts) priced to around 2.5% interest rates, so costs around £30Bn/year to service. Inflation since 2007 is around 60%, so £25Bn/year in 2007 is in real terms more than £30Bn in 2024. The debt 'mountain' isn't a issue, the primary concern is deficit, spending (importing) more than you have coming in (export). Japan can run a debt of multiples of GDP because much of that debt is held domestically (which is just a internal money redistribution issue).

As each Gilt (bond) matures you have to decide whether to repay that, or roll it (sell another Gilt) - which is spread out over many years and each is assessed according to circumstances at the time (roll or repay).

The deficit since Covid has been a major issue. Sunak as Chancellor fouled up big-time. Truss/KK had the right idea but implementation was extremely poor, quangos pretty much threw a spanner into the works as they preferred Remain over Brexit. Sunak is a closet Remainer, gifted the EU Northern Ireland (Windsor agreement), along with other massively wasteful/lost spending (such as paying some £2500/month to stay at home during Covid, but not others, so had near zero effect/benefit, but at great cost. Contracts were also issued where the money was lost (stolen) and not trivial amounts either). High cost and inflation are largely attributable to Sunak.

Financial year ending March¹	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Deficit (£ billion)	83.1	55.6	55.1	39.1	59.4	327.6
Deficit (as % GDP)	4.3	2.7	2.6	1.8	2.6	15.3

Source: Office for National Statistics - UK government debt and deficit

Currency debasement isn't just a fiat thing. The Romans were doing it centuries ago

Quote

The denarius was first introduced a few years before 211 BCE as a nearly pure silver coin weighing about 4.5 grams. However, over the centuries, its silver content was continuously reduced. During the Julio-Claudian dynasty, the denarius contained about 4 grams of silver. Under Nero, the silver content was further reduced to 3.8 grams. By the second half of the third century CE, the denarius contained only about 2% silver and was eventually replaced by the Argenteus. From Nero in AD 64 onwards, the Romans consistently debased their silver coins until there was hardly any silver left by the end of the 3rd century.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/roman-currency-debasement-brief-history-von-wooding

[Petra]

5 hours ago, Bratnia said:

Stocks broadly tend to see prices rise over time that negate inflation, and also pay dividends.

Own a home and again price rises might broadly negate inflation and avoids having to find/pay rent, has imputed rent benefit

Gold (and cash deposits/bonds) broadly might be expected to just see price rises that broadly negate inflation

But all in a volatile manner, you can select two points in time to make a asset look extremely great, or lousy, according to whichever picture you might want to paint.

When you rebalance, such as yearly rebalancing back to thirds house/stock/gold weightings, that is a form of add-low/reduce-high trading that in itself tends to yield a 'dividend'. Attribute those 'trading' gains to gold, as though gold also paid a dividend and stock/home/gold can compare to all-stock total returns, but tending to do so in a less volatile manner. Three assets (land/stock/commodity), three sources of income (imputed rent, dividends, withdrawals (SWR)). Similar total return reward expectancy to all-stock but with less volatility = better risk-adjusted reward (higher Sharpe Ratio).

It's not easy to rebalance your home value, other than maybe at seven-year-itch type intervals, however the interval between rebalancing isn't a critical factor, more a case of being appropriate when more extreme deviations have occurred. Non rebalanced has the tendency to see the portfolio averaging higher average weighting in the asset(s) that performed the best, low weighting in the asset(s) that performed poorly. 33.3/33.3/33.3 initial stock/home/gold weightings might drift to being 50/40/10 in the best/mid/worst assets, time averaged 42/37/21 weightings, and yielded a similar overall total return reward to had you rebalanced back to 33.3/33.3/33.3 weightings each and every year.

Note the inverse correlation between stocks and gold. Across periods when stocks did poorly gold did well and vice versa. Having one or more assets that do well more consistently is important, otherwise if you're totally in say just stocks that endure a decade long period of low/no real gains, maybe even a loss, then if you're also drawing a income from that such as a 4% SWR then that eats into your base capital, erodes the portfolio value, potentially to a low point that is too low to recover from.

Oh no… don’t need graphs like this🤔😮😮😁

[Paul]

Just having an after work pint in the club, racing channel is on 

Horse running 19.30 at Newcastle called ' going to the moon ' 22/1 

if anyone's got a few pennies in their betting account 

[Darr3nG]

4 minutes ago, Paul said:

Just having an after work pint in the club, racing channel is on 

Horse running 19.30 at Newcastle called ' going to the moon ' 22/1 

if anyone's got a few pennies in their betting account 

I'm all in!

[James32]

5 minutes ago, Paul said:

Just having an after work pint in the club, racing channel is on 

Horse running 19.30 at Newcastle called ' going to the moon ' 22/1 

if anyone's got a few pennies in their betting account 

£2 on it at 28-1

[Darr3nG]

I think he came dead last... is it a sign?

[Paul]

3 minutes ago, Darr3nG said:

I'm all in!

 

2 minutes ago, James32 said:

£2 on it at 28-1

You should have bought silver. It got beat 

[Darr3nG]

1 minute ago, Paul said:

 

You should have bought silver. It got beat 

Where was that advice 9 mins ago?

[Paul]

4 minutes ago, Darr3nG said:

Where was that advice 9 mins ago?

I was just pointing the name out

I'm not FCA approved to give independent financial advice like Wonger

[Darr3nG]

15 minutes ago, Paul said:

I'm not FCA approved to give independent financial advice like Wonger

Never seen you in the same room... just sayin'

[dicker]

31 minutes ago, Paul said:

Just having an after work pint in the club, racing channel is on 

Horse running 19.30 at Newcastle called ' going to the moon ' 22/1 

if anyone's got a few pennies in their betting account 

lol.  Dont. 

[Paul]

3 minutes ago, dicker said:

lol.  Dont. 

I didn't