Jump to content
  • The above Banner is a Sponsored Banner.

    Upgrade to Premium Membership to remove this Banner & All Google Ads. For full list of Premium Member benefits Click HERE.

  • Join The Silver Forum

    The Silver Forum is one of the largest and best loved silver and gold precious metals forums in the world, established since 2014. Join today for FREE! Browse the sponsor's topics (hidden to guests) for special deals and offers, check out the bargains in the members trade section and join in with our community reacting and commenting on topic posts. If you have any questions whatsoever about precious metals collecting and investing please join and start a topic and we will be here to help with our knowledge :) happy stacking/collecting. 21,000+ forum members and 1 million+ forum posts. For the latest up to date stats please see the stats in the right sidebar when browsing from desktop. Sign up for FREE to view the forum with reduced ads. 

Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only


Paul
Message added by ChrisSilver

This topic is to discuss price action in GBP, to discuss price action in $ USD, please see this topic: https://thesilverforum.com/topic/19962-gold-monitoring-thread-usd-only/

📌 For general non PM chat there is the Hangout topic here: 

 

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Taken from the telegraph today

A powerful force is stalking the world’s gold market. It is operating in the shadows. 

None of the normal footprints are visible on the London bullion market or the Chicago Mercantile. Retail goldbugs have not been buyers: ETF gold funds have been shrinking since December. The crowd is piling into the Bitcoin scam instead.

Yet gold has smashed through a four-year barrier around $2,000 an ounce, rising in parabolic fashion since mid-February, and hitting an all-time high of $2,431 on April 11. Is somebody preparing for an escalation of the shadow Third World War?

“It is not a Western institution behind this. It is a massive player with very deep pockets. I have never seen this kind of buying before,” said Ross Norman, a veteran gold trader and now chief executive of Metals Daily.

Gold has been ratcheting up fresh records against the headwinds of a strong dollar, a 70 point jump in 10-year US Treasury yields, and hawkish talk from the Federal Reserve. This mix would normally spell trouble for gold.

Whoever it is – or they are – seems insensitive to cost. Central banks do not behave like this. “They buy on the London benchmark and they don’t chase the price,” said Mr Norman. This rally is happening off books in the OTC market. 

Yes, China’s central bank has been adding to its declared gold reserves for 17 consecutive months, part of the gradual portfolio shift away from US Treasuries and European bonds by the Global South. 

Dollar weaponisation since the war in Ukraine has unnerved every country aligned with the authoritarian axis of China and Russia. None can feel safe parking money in Western securities after Russia’s foreign reserves were frozen.

Yet the scale is modest. The World Gold Council said central banks bought a net 18 tonnes in February: 12 in China, six in Kazakhstan and India, four in Turkey, partly offset by Russian sales. This hardly moves the needle.

The Chinese people certainly have been buying gold, creating traffic jams at the Shuibei jewellery hub. Precious metal is the only refuge from the property crash and the slump on the Shanghai bourse. Tightening capital controls make it hard to smuggle serious sums abroad. 

But this alone cannot account for the price surge, either. Mr Norman says the gold flow to Asia has been within normal bounds.

So let me take two stabs at this mystery, one geopolitical and one financial. It has been clear for three years that Russia, China and Iran are operating in collusion, each feeding opportunistically on each other. All three have fostered belligerent hyper-nationalism as a means of regime survival, and all aim to press their advantage against a fatally complacent West before the window of opportunity closes.

This menace on three fronts has reached a dangerous juncture. None of the major democracies have put their economies on a war-time footing despite the obvious threat.

The West has dropped the ball on Ukraine – or worse, it is preventing Ukraine from hitting Russian oil facilities – and has therefore left the door wide open for a knock-out blow by the Kremlin this summer. 

Iran has been emboldened by Putin’s military comeback. It is also flush with money. Joe Biden is so worried about rising petrol prices that he has turned a blind eye to sanctions busting, letting Iran sell as much crude as it wants. This has enabled Tehran to advance its pawns in the Middle East, and now to risk a direct missile strike against Israel. 

The third shoe has yet to drop but China knows that the West has run down its stock of military kit trying to contain these other two crises. Xi Jinping may never have a better moment to tighten the noose on Taiwan with a naval and air blockade, gaining a stranglehold over the West’s supply of advanced semiconductors that can then be used as a bargaining chip. How would the democracies respond to this?

There is a strong suspicion among gold experts that China is behind the surge in buying, building up a war-fighting bullion chest through state-controlled banks and proxies. But others, too, can see that we are living through a fundamental convulsion of the global order, and that the dollarised financial system will not be the same at the end of it. Gold is the hedge against dystopia.

However, there is a parallel explanation. Covid finally broke our spendthrift governments. The talk in hedge fund land is that some big beasts are taking bets against “fiscal dominance” across the West.

It is a collective judgment that too many countries have pushed public debt beyond 100pc of GDP and beyond the point of no return under prevailing economic ideologies and political regimes. Budget deficits have broken out of historical ranges and are running at structurally untenable levels for this stage of the cycle. 

Central banks will bottle it – under this scenario – in order to mop up issuance of treasury bonds. They will let inflation run hot to help states whittle down debts by stealth default. You might argue that this is what they already did by letting rip with extreme money creation during the pandemic.

The Bank of Japan is refusing to raise rates above zero or halt bond purchases even though core inflation is 2.8pc and the Rengo wage round is running at 5.2pc. This is what a debt trap looks like. With a debt-to-GDP ratio above 260pc, Japan cannot return to sound money without risking a fiscal crisis.

Olivier Blanchard, global debt guru and former IMF chief economist, once told me how this would unfold by the mid-2020s. “One day the BoJ may get a call from the finance ministry saying please think about us – it is a life or death question – and keep rates at zero for a bit longer,” he said. 

The European Central Bank is also in a debt trap. It continued to buy buckets of Club Med bonds even when inflation was over 10pc. This was patently a fiscal rescue for semi-solvent states. The ECB has backed off for now but will be forced to shield Italy again with fiscal transfers disguised as QE in the next downturn.

The Fed has largely monetised the Trump-Biden jumbo deficits. It now faces an invidious choice: either it stays the course against inflation, at the risk of a US funding crisis, a commercial property/banking crisis, and recession, all ending in a return to QE and fiscal dominance; or it cuts rates hard and fast before inflation is under control, also ending in fiscal dominance. Is gold sniffing this out?

Of course, the gold spike may be nothing more than wolf pack speculation by funds orchestrating a squeeze on bullion shorts through the options market, knowing that this sets off a self-fueling feedback loop. If so, the rally will short-circuit soon enough.

My bet is that a big animal with a Chinese accent is bracing for geopolitical or monetary disorder on a traumatic scale.

I know who it is

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Dankanugget said:

I know who it is

James?

The closer the collapse of an Empire, the crazier it's laws - Marcus Tullius Cicero

We had the warning in 2006-9 but central banks ignored it and just added new worthless debt to existing worthless debt to create worthless debt squared – an obvious recipe for disaster. - Egon von Greyerz

https://www.thesilverforum.com/topic/83864-uk-bank-regulations/

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm terrified of buying saving up for  a 1oz gold Kruger now. I'll stick to 1/10th's and some silver twice a month. Might be nice to collect a 1/10th of all types for aesthetics.

It's just getting too expensive. With eastern fingers prying the market away from western hands it's too unpredictable now for larger purchases.

Maybe I'm just a peasant 1st class. Don't even have a boat to lose my stack in 😢

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, DisplayName said:

I'm terrified of buying saving up for  a 1oz gold Kruger now. I'll stick to 1/10th's and some silver twice a month. Might be nice to collect a 1/10th of all types for aesthetics.

It's just getting too expensive. With eastern fingers prying the market away from western hands it's too unpredictable now for larger purchases.

Maybe I'm just a peasant 1st class. Don't even have a boat to lose my stack in 😢

Stick to smaller coins (sovs personally). If you want to sell and buy a 1oz down the line you can. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Taken from the telegraph today

A powerful force is stalking the world’s gold market. It is operating in the shadows. 

None of the normal footprints are visible on the London bullion market or the Chicago Mercantile. Retail goldbugs have not been buyers: ETF gold funds have been shrinking since December. The crowd is piling into the Bitcoin scam instead.

Yet gold has smashed through a four-year barrier around $2,000 an ounce, rising in parabolic fashion since mid-February, and hitting an all-time high of $2,431 on April 11. Is somebody preparing for an escalation of the shadow Third World War?

“It is not a Western institution behind this. It is a massive player with very deep pockets. I have never seen this kind of buying before,” said Ross Norman, a veteran gold trader and now chief executive of Metals Daily.

Gold has been ratcheting up fresh records against the headwinds of a strong dollar, a 70 point jump in 10-year US Treasury yields, and hawkish talk from the Federal Reserve. This mix would normally spell trouble for gold.

Whoever it is – or they are – seems insensitive to cost. Central banks do not behave like this. “They buy on the London benchmark and they don’t chase the price,” said Mr Norman. This rally is happening off books in the OTC market. 

Yes, China’s central bank has been adding to its declared gold reserves for 17 consecutive months, part of the gradual portfolio shift away from US Treasuries and European bonds by the Global South. 

Dollar weaponisation since the war in Ukraine has unnerved every country aligned with the authoritarian axis of China and Russia. None can feel safe parking money in Western securities after Russia’s foreign reserves were frozen.

Yet the scale is modest. The World Gold Council said central banks bought a net 18 tonnes in February: 12 in China, six in Kazakhstan and India, four in Turkey, partly offset by Russian sales. This hardly moves the needle.

The Chinese people certainly have been buying gold, creating traffic jams at the Shuibei jewellery hub. Precious metal is the only refuge from the property crash and the slump on the Shanghai bourse. Tightening capital controls make it hard to smuggle serious sums abroad. 

But this alone cannot account for the price surge, either. Mr Norman says the gold flow to Asia has been within normal bounds.

So let me take two stabs at this mystery, one geopolitical and one financial. It has been clear for three years that Russia, China and Iran are operating in collusion, each feeding opportunistically on each other. All three have fostered belligerent hyper-nationalism as a means of regime survival, and all aim to press their advantage against a fatally complacent West before the window of opportunity closes.

This menace on three fronts has reached a dangerous juncture. None of the major democracies have put their economies on a war-time footing despite the obvious threat.

The West has dropped the ball on Ukraine – or worse, it is preventing Ukraine from hitting Russian oil facilities – and has therefore left the door wide open for a knock-out blow by the Kremlin this summer. 

Iran has been emboldened by Putin’s military comeback. It is also flush with money. Joe Biden is so worried about rising petrol prices that he has turned a blind eye to sanctions busting, letting Iran sell as much crude as it wants. This has enabled Tehran to advance its pawns in the Middle East, and now to risk a direct missile strike against Israel. 

The third shoe has yet to drop but China knows that the West has run down its stock of military kit trying to contain these other two crises. Xi Jinping may never have a better moment to tighten the noose on Taiwan with a naval and air blockade, gaining a stranglehold over the West’s supply of advanced semiconductors that can then be used as a bargaining chip. How would the democracies respond to this?

There is a strong suspicion among gold experts that China is behind the surge in buying, building up a war-fighting bullion chest through state-controlled banks and proxies. But others, too, can see that we are living through a fundamental convulsion of the global order, and that the dollarised financial system will not be the same at the end of it. Gold is the hedge against dystopia.

However, there is a parallel explanation. Covid finally broke our spendthrift governments. The talk in hedge fund land is that some big beasts are taking bets against “fiscal dominance” across the West.

It is a collective judgment that too many countries have pushed public debt beyond 100pc of GDP and beyond the point of no return under prevailing economic ideologies and political regimes. Budget deficits have broken out of historical ranges and are running at structurally untenable levels for this stage of the cycle. 

Central banks will bottle it – under this scenario – in order to mop up issuance of treasury bonds. They will let inflation run hot to help states whittle down debts by stealth default. You might argue that this is what they already did by letting rip with extreme money creation during the pandemic.

The Bank of Japan is refusing to raise rates above zero or halt bond purchases even though core inflation is 2.8pc and the Rengo wage round is running at 5.2pc. This is what a debt trap looks like. With a debt-to-GDP ratio above 260pc, Japan cannot return to sound money without risking a fiscal crisis.

Olivier Blanchard, global debt guru and former IMF chief economist, once told me how this would unfold by the mid-2020s. “One day the BoJ may get a call from the finance ministry saying please think about us – it is a life or death question – and keep rates at zero for a bit longer,” he said. 

The European Central Bank is also in a debt trap. It continued to buy buckets of Club Med bonds even when inflation was over 10pc. This was patently a fiscal rescue for semi-solvent states. The ECB has backed off for now but will be forced to shield Italy again with fiscal transfers disguised as QE in the next downturn.

The Fed has largely monetised the Trump-Biden jumbo deficits. It now faces an invidious choice: either it stays the course against inflation, at the risk of a US funding crisis, a commercial property/banking crisis, and recession, all ending in a return to QE and fiscal dominance; or it cuts rates hard and fast before inflation is under control, also ending in fiscal dominance. Is gold sniffing this out?

Of course, the gold spike may be nothing more than wolf pack speculation by funds orchestrating a squeeze on bullion shorts through the options market, knowing that this sets off a self-fueling feedback loop. If so, the rally will short-circuit soon enough.

My bet is that a big animal with a Chinese accent is bracing for geopolitical or monetary disorder on a traumatic scale.

This is what happens when greed and wealth transfer are the goal by the elites. Eventually it catches up with them. 

Another option the Central Banks can toy with is gold repricing/revaluation up and therefore as a way to pay off some of that debt. We could see that fabled unicorn arrive sooner rather than later as governments globally suddenly are turned upon and are about to get routed/outed/ousted (use whatever terminology you want) 
Think Weimar Republic, Zimbabwe 2.0 etc... it's coming, it's all a matter of how long they can kick the can down the road so it's "Not on my watch"

The closer the collapse of an Empire, the crazier it's laws - Marcus Tullius Cicero

We had the warning in 2006-9 but central banks ignored it and just added new worthless debt to existing worthless debt to create worthless debt squared – an obvious recipe for disaster. - Egon von Greyerz

https://www.thesilverforum.com/topic/83864-uk-bank-regulations/

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Taken from the telegraph today

A powerful force is stalking the world’s gold market. It is operating in the shadows. 

None of the normal footprints are visible on the London bullion market or the Chicago Mercantile. Retail goldbugs have not been buyers: ETF gold funds have been shrinking since December. The crowd is piling into the Bitcoin scam instead.

Yet gold has smashed through a four-year barrier around $2,000 an ounce, rising in parabolic fashion since mid-February, and hitting an all-time high of $2,431 on April 11. Is somebody preparing for an escalation of the shadow Third World War?

“It is not a Western institution behind this. It is a massive player with very deep pockets. I have never seen this kind of buying before,” said Ross Norman, a veteran gold trader and now chief executive of Metals Daily.

Gold has been ratcheting up fresh records against the headwinds of a strong dollar, a 70 point jump in 10-year US Treasury yields, and hawkish talk from the Federal Reserve. This mix would normally spell trouble for gold.

Whoever it is – or they are – seems insensitive to cost. Central banks do not behave like this. “They buy on the London benchmark and they don’t chase the price,” said Mr Norman. This rally is happening off books in the OTC market. 

Yes, China’s central bank has been adding to its declared gold reserves for 17 consecutive months, part of the gradual portfolio shift away from US Treasuries and European bonds by the Global South. 

Dollar weaponisation since the war in Ukraine has unnerved every country aligned with the authoritarian axis of China and Russia. None can feel safe parking money in Western securities after Russia’s foreign reserves were frozen.

Yet the scale is modest. The World Gold Council said central banks bought a net 18 tonnes in February: 12 in China, six in Kazakhstan and India, four in Turkey, partly offset by Russian sales. This hardly moves the needle.

The Chinese people certainly have been buying gold, creating traffic jams at the Shuibei jewellery hub. Precious metal is the only refuge from the property crash and the slump on the Shanghai bourse. Tightening capital controls make it hard to smuggle serious sums abroad. 

But this alone cannot account for the price surge, either. Mr Norman says the gold flow to Asia has been within normal bounds.

So let me take two stabs at this mystery, one geopolitical and one financial. It has been clear for three years that Russia, China and Iran are operating in collusion, each feeding opportunistically on each other. All three have fostered belligerent hyper-nationalism as a means of regime survival, and all aim to press their advantage against a fatally complacent West before the window of opportunity closes.

This menace on three fronts has reached a dangerous juncture. None of the major democracies have put their economies on a war-time footing despite the obvious threat.

The West has dropped the ball on Ukraine – or worse, it is preventing Ukraine from hitting Russian oil facilities – and has therefore left the door wide open for a knock-out blow by the Kremlin this summer. 

Iran has been emboldened by Putin’s military comeback. It is also flush with money. Joe Biden is so worried about rising petrol prices that he has turned a blind eye to sanctions busting, letting Iran sell as much crude as it wants. This has enabled Tehran to advance its pawns in the Middle East, and now to risk a direct missile strike against Israel. 

The third shoe has yet to drop but China knows that the West has run down its stock of military kit trying to contain these other two crises. Xi Jinping may never have a better moment to tighten the noose on Taiwan with a naval and air blockade, gaining a stranglehold over the West’s supply of advanced semiconductors that can then be used as a bargaining chip. How would the democracies respond to this?

There is a strong suspicion among gold experts that China is behind the surge in buying, building up a war-fighting bullion chest through state-controlled banks and proxies. But others, too, can see that we are living through a fundamental convulsion of the global order, and that the dollarised financial system will not be the same at the end of it. Gold is the hedge against dystopia.

However, there is a parallel explanation. Covid finally broke our spendthrift governments. The talk in hedge fund land is that some big beasts are taking bets against “fiscal dominance” across the West.

It is a collective judgment that too many countries have pushed public debt beyond 100pc of GDP and beyond the point of no return under prevailing economic ideologies and political regimes. Budget deficits have broken out of historical ranges and are running at structurally untenable levels for this stage of the cycle. 

Central banks will bottle it – under this scenario – in order to mop up issuance of treasury bonds. They will let inflation run hot to help states whittle down debts by stealth default. You might argue that this is what they already did by letting rip with extreme money creation during the pandemic.

The Bank of Japan is refusing to raise rates above zero or halt bond purchases even though core inflation is 2.8pc and the Rengo wage round is running at 5.2pc. This is what a debt trap looks like. With a debt-to-GDP ratio above 260pc, Japan cannot return to sound money without risking a fiscal crisis.

Olivier Blanchard, global debt guru and former IMF chief economist, once told me how this would unfold by the mid-2020s. “One day the BoJ may get a call from the finance ministry saying please think about us – it is a life or death question – and keep rates at zero for a bit longer,” he said. 

The European Central Bank is also in a debt trap. It continued to buy buckets of Club Med bonds even when inflation was over 10pc. This was patently a fiscal rescue for semi-solvent states. The ECB has backed off for now but will be forced to shield Italy again with fiscal transfers disguised as QE in the next downturn.

The Fed has largely monetised the Trump-Biden jumbo deficits. It now faces an invidious choice: either it stays the course against inflation, at the risk of a US funding crisis, a commercial property/banking crisis, and recession, all ending in a return to QE and fiscal dominance; or it cuts rates hard and fast before inflation is under control, also ending in fiscal dominance. Is gold sniffing this out?

Of course, the gold spike may be nothing more than wolf pack speculation by funds orchestrating a squeeze on bullion shorts through the options market, knowing that this sets off a self-fueling feedback loop. If so, the rally will short-circuit soon enough.

My bet is that a big animal with a Chinese accent is bracing for geopolitical or monetary disorder on a traumatic scale.

There are several possible candidates. Anyone who can create recognised currency (China, EU, UK, USA, Japan) would be a fool not to create that currency and use it to buy gold

As a left-field candidate - how about the CIA and various black budget organisations in North American and western Europe? We've known for a while they have been creating their own currency, funding their own budgets, by using grey offshore banking facilities. Seems like a nice idea for the black budget/shadow government to covertly use their money creation license to purchase assets, then create the war themselves or the geopolitical event that sends metals to the moon

Mind is primary and mass-energy is derivative

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, DisplayName said:

I'm terrified of buying saving up for  a 1oz gold Kruger now. I'll stick to 1/10th's and some silver twice a month. Might be nice to collect a 1/10th of all types for aesthetics.

It's just getting too expensive. With eastern fingers prying the market away from western hands it's too unpredictable now for larger purchases.

Maybe I'm just a peasant 1st class. Don't even have a boat to lose my stack in 😢

All the same difference at the end of the day. Just buy little and often. 

I like to buy the pre-dip dip

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Gruff said:

This is what happens when greed and wealth transfer are the goal by the elites. Eventually it catches up with them. 

Another option the Central Banks can toy with is gold repricing/revaluation up and therefore as a way to pay off some of that debt. We could see that fabled unicorn arrive sooner rather than later as governments globally suddenly are turned upon and are about to get routed/outed/ousted (use whatever terminology you want) 
Think Weimar Republic, Zimbabwe 2.0 etc... it's coming, it's all a matter of how long they can kick the can down the road so it's "Not on my watch"

Are there any parallels you'd see with South Africa that might be relevant to the larger gold price discussion? Im asking only because my mind tricks me into thinking you mentioning that you had lived there for a while. Disregard and sue me for defamation if I'm making things up pls.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, KRO said:

it would have been but since he's been to specsavers its tenths only😀

Finally worked that joke out yesterday. I'm a bit slow. 

I like to buy the pre-dip dip

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...

Cookies & terms of service

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. By continuing to use this site you consent to the use of cookies and to our Privacy Policy & Terms of Use