Gold high spot price

[HawkHybrid]

1 hour ago, vand said:

What are the chances that you are always going to be able to get it right every time?

 

it's not how it works.

you calculate the odds. if they favour a trade, then

you take that trade. it's ok to lose out on trades, as

long as you work to a strategy and on average you

gain more than you lose. no one is saying you need

to get it perfectly spot on each and every time.

 

HH

[HighlandTiger]

On 21/06/2019 at 16:51, Abyss said:

.................... when I start hearing about Gold in everyday life (hairdressers/people at work), I know it will be time to get out of Gold precious metal asset class.

Can you give us a heads up, (pardon the pun), when your hairdresser next mentions gold. I'm never in my barbers long enough, (grade 1 all over clippers), to get past the going on holiday conversation  before I'm done.

[HighlandTiger]

One thing I've noticed is that no-one is factoring in the pounds historic lows against the dollar. If / when Brexit becomes a success, and the pound starts to get back to around $1.60 or above, that's a 20% swing, and would act as a 20% pull back on gold prices for us in the UK. 

[vand]

8 hours ago, sovereignsteve said:

I wouldn't suggest anyone trade their whole holding on wiggles but it makes sense to take profits on part of it with a substantial increase such as this. If it does turn out to be the big move then not much has been lost.

 

You should sell as much as fits with your overall asset allocation plan. And such a plan should not be rebalanced  more than once a quarter.

[Abyss]

@HighlandTiger I was not involved last Gold bull run up to $1900 but to this day I still remember on a number of occasions my wife coming back from work (biscuit factory with Eastern European/Indian/English workers) and the topic of discussion for the day was the Gold price. A week before saw top in Gold in last bull run. When everyone talking about it the move is over.

[HighlandTiger]

1 minute ago, Abyss said:

@HighlandTiger I was not involved last Gold bull run up to $1900 but to this day I still remember on a number of occasions my wife coming back from work (biscuit factory with Eastern European/Indian/English workers) and the topic of discussion for the day was the Gold price. A week before saw top in Gold in last bull run. When everyone talking about it the move is over.

Ah, I notice the mention of Indian workers. Now the talk of gold prices within the Indian community I can well imagine. I think everyone needs to frequent their local Indian restaurant or corner shop more, and when the owner starts looking depressed, then we know gold has gone too high and its time to get out.

Seriously though, with gold being a massive part of the Indian sub-continent culture it's worth listening when gold enters the conversation, and to what they are saying. 

[vand]

7 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

it's not how it works.

you calculate the odds. if they favour a trade, then

you take that trade. it's ok to lose out on trades, as

long as you work to a strategy and on average you

gain more than you lose. no one is saying you need

to get it perfectly spot on each and every time.

 

HH

Except the statistics show that 95% of people who attempt to take short term trades end up losing overall. 

I don't fancy those chances, no matter how well you think the odds are in your favour, the probability is that you are wrong and the market knows better than you.

[HawkHybrid]

3 hours ago, vand said:

Except the statistics show that 95% of people who attempt to take short term trades end up losing overall. 

I don't fancy those chances, no matter how well you think the odds are in your favour, the probability is that you are wrong and the market knows better than you.

 

how much of that 95% is spread bet gamblers?

(75%+ of new spread betting accounts lose 90%+

of their principle within 3 months)

 

do not think the odds are in your favour.

you calculate the odds. work on and continuously

improve on a strategy that averages a gain. it's all

about collecting data, doing the maths and coming

up with a suitable plan.

 

are you not holding pm's because the odds favour

a move up over the longer term?

you are using a similar strategy that only differ in

time frame. you work on years, I work on months.

 

HH

[vand]

38 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

how much of that 95% is spread bet gamblers?

(75%+ of new spread betting accounts lose 90%+

of their principle within 3 months)

 

do not think the odds are in your favour.

you calculate the odds. work on and continuously

improve on a strategy that averages a gain. it's all

about collecting data, doing the maths and coming

up with a suitable plan.

 

are you not holding pm's because the odds favour

a move up over the longer term?

you are using a similar strategy that only differ in

time frame. you work on years, I work on months.

 

HH

 

Most aspiring traders do not fail because of lack of knowledge, they fail because of a lack of discipline. They don't know when to exit a trade that goes against their expectation.

Extrapolate this to trading in and out of your PM position. What will you do if the price moves higher after you have sold out a chunk? When do you admit that you were wrong on the trade and take your "losses" (ie buy back)? The undisciplined trader usually makes the mistake of arguing with the market and doubling down on their position, ie they sell more of their position as the market goes higher still. Eventually they have completely sold out, can't bring themselves to buying in higher and admitting they were wrong, and miss the rest of the bull market.

 

 

[HawkHybrid]

1 hour ago, vand said:

What will you do if the price moves higher after you have sold out a chunk?

will I regret taking profits on a whopping 10% of my

original investment if the price continues to rise?

(90% of my original investment have risen more,

or alternatively I'll be 90% correct, 10% wrong)

 

1 hour ago, vand said:

The undisciplined trader usually makes the mistake of arguing with the market and doubling down on their position, ie they sell more of their position as the market goes higher still.

inexperienced traders do this.

traders take the personal bias out of trading.

you re-evaluate the market on what it's likely

to do next regardless of your previous

positions. you then decide how best to position

yourself for what is likely to come.

 

1 hour ago, vand said:

When do you admit that you were wrong on the trade and take your "losses" (ie buy back)?

the world is bigger than pm's. there are other

opportunities to invest other than pm's. I

wouldn't be too upset in buying pm's and

then turning a profit. it's not exactly the worse

that could have happened. I would only buy

back in if the analysis favours price rises.

take every trade on it's own merits.

 

(I do get the feeling that your stocks must crash

pm's must rocket bias is influencing your analysis

of the current situation)

 

the great thing about taking profits is if it goes up

I'm better on 90% of my investment. if it goes down

I get to lock in profits on 10%, waiting for another

opportunity.(a bird in hand is worth 10 in the wild)

 

HH

[AuricGoldfinger]

@HawkHybrid Im inclined to agree that there is nothing wrong with taking a 10% gain on any investment - especially in this short space of time.

Personally I won’t be selling right now simply because there is nothing better for me to put my money in at this moment in time and i don’t need any more cash. I’m happy in the knowledge that SO FAR gold has done well for me if i were to cash out. Sure the price may go up more and it may go down - the reality is no one knows.

It’s very easy to over analyse things but its simple enough, a gain is a gain and a loss is a loss. Selling at any gain is a much better move than selling at a loss. So your spot on with your analysis IMO 👍 

[Wonger]

Posted May 2

Removing downside hedges on Gold and Silver, looks like a bottom is forming here, buying more of both. 😀

[sixgun]

1 hour ago, Wonger said:

Posted May 2

Removing downside hedges on Gold and Silver, looks like a bottom is forming here, buying more of both. 😀

We know this is a sock account - a fake post - the real Wonge jumped. i saw you.

 

[DarkChameleon]

9 hours ago, Abyss said:

@HighlandTiger I was not involved last Gold bull run up to $1900 but to this day I still remember on a number of occasions my wife coming back from work (biscuit factory with Eastern European/Indian/English workers) and the topic of discussion for the day was the Gold price. A week before saw top in Gold in last bull run. When everyone talking about it the move is over.

When everyone was talking about gold over here it was just about to break the $1000/oz....there were stadiums hosting gold buyers and people travelling to them by the coach load to sell their broken, unwanted jewelry...I didn't sell, I bought, not fast and not loose but kept my buying going on...talk can be the beginning of the ferocious rise or fall, but over here when it's not just fox news trying to flog off gold but everyone talking about and trading in their stuff it's time to keep buying...fear equals buy, greed equals sell, when people come in and want to sell but don't think the offer is enough...then start thinking about selling...because greed has crossed reality..and that's weeks before the bubble bursts.

[sovereignsteve]

4 hours ago, AuricGoldfinger said:

 Im inclined to agree that there is nothing wrong with taking a 10% gain on any investment - especially in this short space of time.

Especially in the gold market of the last few years; we have seen plenty of sharp rises and then it's gone back down again. The odds are that this is another of those occasions, where it would be prudent to cash in some gains on a small part of your holding.

There will come a time when this will be the wrong move because the price will just continue up and up but as @HawkHybridsays, this is not an issue as we still have 90% left to ride the rise and the thought of all the profit we have made selling the peaks and buying the dips over the last 5 years.

[vand]

21 minutes ago, sovereignsteve said:

Especially in the gold market of the last few years; we have seen plenty of sharp rises and then it's gone back down again. The odds are that this is another of those occasions, where it would be prudent to cash in some gains on a small part of your holding.

There will come a time when this will be the wrong move because the price will just continue up and up but as @HawkHybridsays, this is not an issue as we still have 90% left to ride the rise and the thought of all the profit we have made selling the peaks and buying the dips over the last 5 years.

 

Again, this is false thinking. It's not just the once you will be wrong and leave 10% behind. If you try trading at each range you are guaranteeing that you reduce your position by at least 10% each time the price goes to a new range.  Gold went from $230 to $1900 in the last bull market, a move of some 700%. Your goal should be to capture as much of that as you can by sitting tight and letting the market do the work, not try trade your way to an extra 2% at each price range. THAT is being penny wise and pound foolish.

[Xander]

4 minutes ago, vand said:

sitting tight and letting the market do the work

I suppose that would depend on how much time you have left, spring chickens most of us ain't.😋

[AuricGoldfinger]

I still stand by the sentiment a gain is a gain and a loss is loss. If i bet £100 on Tiger Roll winning the Grand National, I don’t kick myself when it wins wishing i bet £1000, or £10,000. A win is a win

[sovereignsteve]

1 hour ago, vand said:

 

Again, this is false thinking. It's not just the once you will be wrong and leave 10% behind. If you try trading at each range you are guaranteeing that you reduce your position by at least 10% each time the price goes to a new range.  Gold went from $230 to $1900 in the last bull market, a move of some 700%. Your goal should be to capture as much of that as you can by sitting tight and letting the market do the work, not try trade your way to an extra 2% at each price range. THAT is being penny wise and pound foolish.

Your way of investing long term will always work IF you are in the market long enough to capture it all, but sometimes these things take a very long time. Also, I would agree it is the best way if the market ever went up or down in a straight line; but it doesn't.

Professional traders in anything don't just buy a huge wad and then sit on their butts waiting for a big move. They are constantly buying, taking profits, selling etc with all the wiggles that happen all the time.

I possibly have been giving you a false picture of my method. I don't actually trade as such. I have been increasing my gold holding steadily since the last bull market had run it's course and we could start looking forward to the next big increase as most of us here will invariably believe will happen at some point.
I'm not a pure stacker as you will have guessed by now but I have been buying bullion when I deem it to be the right time and at the right price.

It became apparent to me a good while ago now that the time wasn't right for a major re-valuation of PMs; there was too much vested interest in the system and too much manipulation. So it has proved with gold never being allowed to rise too much before it has been knocked back down again.
I still don't think we are there yet, ready for a big move. Once the geo-political eg Gulf/Iran etc issues die down, gold will be knocked down again and thus I think it is prudent to carry on taking profits on the highs. I will be ready to buy again when it goes down. If it doesn't then I will be happy with the 90 - 95% of my PMs that I didn't sell and take advantage of the rise.
When it does become apparent a major bull run is in progress, then I will continue buying the dips and top up my holding again.

I don't pretend to be a major trader but my mixture of stacking, trading and collecting keeps me interested and adds enjoyment to my hobby.
I am luckier than many here in that I don't need to build up a huge holding for the long term as I am now retired and essentially I don't need it to live from nor do I need to grow rich.

[fehk2001]

1 hour ago, sovereignsteve said:

I don't need to build up a huge holding for the long term as I am now retired and essentially

u are lucky because u are only 45 years old ………….

[sovereignsteve]

33 minutes ago, fehk2001 said:

u are lucky because u are only 45 years old ………….

ha ha I wish

[DarkChameleon]

3 hours ago, Xander said:

I suppose that would depend on how much time you have left, spring chickens most of us ain't.😋

My kids are relying on that stat.

[Zhorro]

An interesting Bloomberg report on the possible future direction of gold: "Why gold prices might be poised for a big move higher"

 

[HawkHybrid]

2 minutes ago, Zhorro said:

An interesting Bloomberg report on the possible future direction of gold: "Why gold prices might be poised for a big move higher"

 

do you see the upper green line that represents

resistance until broken. it's still a case of 'if' we

break resistance then gold is likely to rise more.

it's far from a given until it's broken.

 

HH

[vand]

4 hours ago, sovereignsteve said:

Your way of investing long term will always work IF you are in the market long enough to capture it all, but sometimes these things take a very long time. Also, I would agree it is the best way if the market ever went up or down in a straight line; but it doesn't.

Professional traders in anything don't just buy a huge wad and then sit on their butts waiting for a big move. They are constantly buying, taking profits, selling etc with all the wiggles that happen all the time.

I possibly have been giving you a false picture of my method. I don't actually trade as such. I have been increasing my gold holding steadily since the last bull market had run it's course and we could start looking forward to the next big increase as most of us here will invariably believe will happen at some point.
I'm not a pure stacker as you will have guessed by now but I have been buying bullion when I deem it to be the right time and at the right price.

It became apparent to me a good while ago now that the time wasn't right for a major re-valuation of PMs; there was too much vested interest in the system and too much manipulation. So it has proved with gold never being allowed to rise too much before it has been knocked back down again.
I still don't think we are there yet, ready for a big move. Once the geo-political eg Gulf/Iran etc issues die down, gold will be knocked down again and thus I think it is prudent to carry on taking profits on the highs. I will be ready to buy again when it goes down. If it doesn't then I will be happy with the 90 - 95% of my PMs that I didn't sell and take advantage of the rise.
When it does become apparent a major bull run is in progress, then I will continue buying the dips and top up my holding again.

I don't pretend to be a major trader but my mixture of stacking, trading and collecting keeps me interested and adds enjoyment to my hobby.
I am luckier than many here in that I don't need to build up a huge holding for the long term as I am now retired and essentially I don't need it to live from nor do I need to grow rich.

 

You are right... it doesn't go up in a straight line. That is precisely WHY you should buy and hold for the BIG move. Nobody can get all the wriggles correct, and if you try to play them you end up with worse results than if you had just sat tight - 100% guaranteed.

Here is a little exercise for you or anybody who thinks that trading in and out of a position is the way to enhance returns.

- Load up Excel and draw up a schedule for £1000 invested, and pick an annualised rate of return for a length of time, say 10 years. Note your total value at the end of the year.

- Now draw up the same schedule and add subtract a 10% withdrawal from the total portfolio value at the end of each year. This is what you are effectively doing each time you get it wrong and giving up a chunk of your position. Note you total value at the end of 10 years. Shocking, isn't it?

- Now play with the annual rate of return and note how much higher it needs to be for your total end value with the withdrawals to match the total end value without withdrawals. this will vary depending on the rate of return but at the rate of the last bull market (roughly 17%pa) it almost halves your total return.

In other words, if you are trading 10% of your portfolio and accept that each time you get it wrong and the market goes to a new trading range and you leave 10% on the table at the lower price, you need to get it right enough times that you double the internal rate of return to the match the buy and hold strategy.

Does that sounds plausible to you?

Do you really think that you are a good enough trader that you can double the rate of return of by trading around a 10% position? Get real!