Gold high spot price

[sovereignsteve]

20 minutes ago, vand said:

Do you really think that you are a good enough trader that you can double the rate of return of by trading around a 10% position? Get real!

 

I don't need to faff around doing a theoretical execise as you suggest. I only have to keep looking at my gold holding spreadsheet and keying in the current spot price and see what the total is, under various conditions. I only know that doing it my way; buying mainly when it has been cheap and selling a bit when it goes up has beaten the theoretical buy and hold scenario.

[vand]

11 hours ago, AuricGoldfinger said:

@HawkHybrid Im inclined to agree that there is nothing wrong with taking a 10% gain on any investment - especially in this short space of time.

Personally I won’t be selling right now simply because there is nothing better for me to put my money in at this moment in time and i don’t need any more cash. I’m happy in the knowledge that SO FAR gold has done well for me if i were to cash out. Sure the price may go up more and it may go down - the reality is no one knows.

It’s very easy to over analyse things but its simple enough, a gain is a gain and a loss is a loss. Selling at any gain is a much better move than selling at a loss. So your spot on with your analysis IMO 👍 

I'm pretty firmly of the opinion that if a 10% overnight movement of anything is your reason to lock in the gain and sell then your asset allocation is very wrong. People who crystalize such small movements are invariably holding far too much of it in comparison to cash and other liquid assets.

[sixgun]

Listen to the woman in the Bloomberg video - can you imagine her as a nagging wife? - she can't half rattle - my head is already spinning. 

[sixgun]

10 minutes ago, vand said:

I'm pretty firmly of the opinion that if a 10% overnight movement of anything is your reason to lock in the gain and sell then your asset allocation is very wrong. People who crystalize such small movements are invariably holding far too much of it in comparison to cash and other liquid assets.

If i were trading paper assets i would take profits in a heart beat. i can re-enter the market, go long or short. My coins and bars are something else. They have taken me years to collect them. If i get wind the market is going to climb, i can get back into the paper market in a mouse click. i can't replace my coins. The market has been going sideways for the best part of 6 years. Going in and out was the right thing to do - you have had years to buy and sell for 10% profit. We have been around these levels and price has always dropped. One day it won't. i remember the bull run so i will hold onto my coins. 

[HawkHybrid]

29 minutes ago, vand said:

Now draw up the same schedule and add subtract a 10% withdrawal from the total portfolio value at the end of each year.

 

this is a the most unrealistic scenario.

effectively you are saying that profit takers

get it wrong all the time, they do absolutely

nothing with their released funds. and in short

they make a complete pigs ear of it. if you are

going to pre judge the situation, why bother

with the analysis?

 

in the real world profit taking increases your

flexibility and reduces your risk by reducing

your exposure at strategic points.

pm's is not the be all and end all. funds released

can be used in other investments.

 

7 hours ago, vand said:

Gold went from $230 to $1900 in the last bull market, a move of some 700%.

true, then it went form 700% back to about 500%

for those who did not take profits near the top.

 

HH

[DarkChameleon]

3 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

do you see the upper green line that represents

resistance until broken. it's still a case of 'if' we

break resistance then gold is likely to rise more.

it's far from a given until it's broken.

 

HH

Gold is trading right now over $1400...it's not being held just under but its just over...I think the upward preasure is beating the downward presume and tomorrow's walstreet is going to push it hard upwards.

[DarkChameleon]

1 hour ago, sixgun said:

If i were trading paper assets i would take profits in a heart beat. i can re-enter the market, go long or short. My coins and bars are something else. They have taken me years to collect them. If i get wind the market is going to climb, i can get back into the paper market in a mouse click. i can't replace my coins. The market has been going sideways for the best part of 6 years. Going in and out was the right thing to do - you have had years to buy and sell for 10% profit. We have been around these levels and price has always dropped. One day it won't. i remember the bull run so i will hold onto my coins. 

Time to select your favorite child then...lol..offload the ugly red headed one and keep the blue eyed blondes...lol...feed the wheat, not the chafe

[sixgun]

There is short selling coming in at $1410 spot - it gets knocked back pretty sharpish if you look at the 5 minute chart - this is getting dangerous for the usual suspects - the physical market is tightening like a noose around their necks. A rising tide raises all boats - other than those with holes in i suppose so i will keep all of my babies, i feel they are due for a growth spurt. 

[DarkChameleon]

40 minutes ago, sixgun said:

There is short selling coming in at $1410 spot - it gets knocked back pretty sharpish if you look at the 5 minute chart - this is getting dangerous for the usual suspects - the physical market is tightening like a noose around their necks. A rising tide raises all boats - other than those with holes in i suppose so i will keep all of my babies, i feel they are due for a growth spurt. 

I'm thinking they cant be selling, whe would not sell at 1399 on a Friday then sell at 1406 on a Sunday night?....iveseen more people this weekend on the junk goldmarket, they are dealers willing to pay the new levels, last week they weren't even wiling to pay the present rates,  one reason I got such good deals, now I'm being squeezed today...words getting out,they are private sellers, not bulk junk sellers I'm seeing..5 - 10g, not so many 200-500 gwhich screams to me that the holders think it's going up and the owners think it's gone high enough.

[vand]

7 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

this is a the most unrealistic scenario.

effectively you are saying that profit takers

get it wrong all the time, they do absolutely

nothing with their released funds. and in short

they make a complete pigs ear of it. if you are

going to pre judge the situation, why bother

with the analysis?

 

 

 

And if you can't sit on your hands with your profits in the gold market, what makes you think you can sit on your hands in these other ventures when they show a profit?

[HawkHybrid]

9 hours ago, DarkChameleon said:

Gold is trading right now over $1400...it's not being held just under but its just over...I think the upward preasure is beating the downward presume and tomorrow's walstreet is going to push it hard upwards.

 

it's a zone of resistance. not exactly $1400.00.

until there is clear movement breaking away

towards the next zone of resistance buyers and

sellers should be assumed to be still battling it

out.

 

HH

[goldmember44]

vand, you are absolutely right. I have learnt the hard way through trading in the past, and lost out big time by not sitting and holding my long positions to get the full benefit of market moves. No, I wanted to scalp the short-term movements... and I got hammered and lost the whole pot in the end. It's painful, but I've learned my lesson.

[HawkHybrid]

4 hours ago, vand said:

 

And if you can't sit on your hands with your profits in the gold market, what makes you think you can sit on your hands in these other ventures when they show a profit?

 

I like to be happy when luck shows it's face and

I turn a profit. I take it one step at a time. I might

be able to make more money but that time

probably hasn't come yet. I can only do the best

with what I know, maybe experience and more

learning could improve this.

I'm trying to look towards the future and improve

my positioning at strategic points. what

improvements are you working on with your buy

and hold strategy?

phrased another way. buy and hold have been great

for the entire 9 years of the last bull market. since

then what has it done for people in the following 8

years? (we don't even know yet if we are in the next

bull market. so far silver doesn't seem to be able to

keep up with gold, seen by the rising gsr.)

what use is sticking to a buy and hold strategy that

only works well during a bull market and that we

are unconfirmed to be in a bull market yet?

 

I can't believe you're turning your nose up at a decent

profit in order to follow a strategy that hasn't worked

for the last 8 years.

 

HH

[sovereignsteve]

54 minutes ago, goldmember44 said:

vand, you are absolutely right. I have learnt the hard way through trading in the past, and lost out big time by not sitting and holding my long positions to get the full benefit of market moves. No, I wanted to scalp the short-term movements... and I got hammered and lost the whole pot in the end. It's painful, but I've learned my lesson.

was that trading the gold market? because gold is different to every other market, even other commodities. or are we taking Fx here?😉

i would agree that in general investment (stock market) and thinking long term, buy and hold is usually the correct way forward, as long as you buy at the bottom or close to.

the thing is, the professionals don't buy and hold, unless they have special buying arrangements like the sage of omaha himself; they trade in and out of the market.

retail investors/traders always lose out, they get slaughtered by the pros

[goldmember44]

1 minute ago, sovereignsteve said:

was that trading the gold market? because gold is different to every other market, even other commodities. or are we taking Fx here?😉

i would agree that in general investment (stock market) and thinking long term, buy and hold is usually the correct way forward, as long as you buy at the bottom or close to.

the thing is, the professionals don't buy and hold, unless they have special buying arrangements like the sage of omaha himself; they trade in and out of the market.

retail investors/traders always lose out, they get slaughtered by the pros

No, it was the stock market. If I had at that time invested in gold, I might have had a stack like Shadow Stack today

[DarkChameleon]

47 minutes ago, goldmember44 said:

No, it was the stock market. If I had at that time invested in gold, I might have had a stack like Shadow Stack today

Shadowstack is holding a mountain of silver as well as gold...he has as have most of us held silver while it's ratio has gone bananas, even newer horder shave seen 70-1 go to 91-1 .... holding isn't a,ways the greatest option, that ratio is unlikely to swing the same as golds rise or indeed silvers future rise ... is gold out performing silver or are investors selling silver to buy gold?.

[goldmember44]

14 minutes ago, DarkChameleon said:

... is gold out performing silver or are investors selling silver to buy gold?.

Probably both. Also, there are people who have made $$$ from crypto, who then use such funds to buy a lot of gold it seems. Which is a good move, in order to diversify a bit and put some  of that money in gold safety. 

[DarkChameleon]

Our lass wanted me to buy her a bitcoin so she could hang it around her neck, that's not how it works..but if you want to hang a 256bit encrypted thumbdrive around your neck then by all means have at it.

[vand]

15 hours ago, sixgun said:

If i were trading paper assets i would take profits in a heart beat. i can re-enter the market, go long or short. My coins and bars are something else. They have taken me years to collect them. If i get wind the market is going to climb, i can get back into the paper market in a mouse click. i can't replace my coins. The market has been going sideways for the best part of 6 years. Going in and out was the right thing to do - you have had years to buy and sell for 10% profit. We have been around these levels and price has always dropped. One day it won't. i remember the bull run so i will hold onto my coins. 

Correct, that "worked" in the last 6 years because we have been rangebound. But what worked in a rangebound market will ensure that you end up missing the bull market if you continue to do it in a trending market.

And despite what you may be thinking, the market has changed. We have broken out to a higher price. That is not a subjective argument. That is there for everyone to see in the current spot price. Time will tell if it proves a false breakout on this attempt (that is always possible), but you trade what you see, not what you think. There will be plenty of people who tried to pick a top in the last month at $1350, $1360, $1370, $1380, $1390 etc now wondering if they will have to buy back in higher. 

 

[sixgun]

20 minutes ago, vand said:

Correct, that "worked" in the last 6 years because we have been rangebound. But what worked in a rangebound market will ensure that you end up missing the bull market if you continue to do it in a trending market.

And despite what you may be thinking, the market has changed. We have broken out to a higher price. That is not a subjective argument. That is there for everyone to see in the current spot price. Time will tell if it proves a false breakout on this attempt (that is always possible), but you trade what you see, not what you think. There will be plenty of people who tried to pick a top in the last month at $1350, $1360, $1370, $1380, $1390 etc now wondering if they will have to buy back in higher. 

 

i have been preaching the market has changed - there are forces in the physical markets that will overwhelm the increasingly leverage paper scheme. 

[HawkHybrid]

4 hours ago, vand said:

Correct, that "worked" in the last 6 years because we have been rangebound. But what worked in a rangebound market will ensure that you end up missing the bull market if you continue to do it in a trending market.

And despite what you may be thinking, the market has changed. We have broken out to a higher price. That is not a subjective argument. That is there for everyone to see in the current spot price. Time will tell if it proves a false breakout on this attempt (that is always possible), but you trade what you see, not what you think. There will be plenty of people who tried to pick a top in the last month at $1350, $1360, $1370, $1380, $1390 etc now wondering if they will have to buy back in higher. 

 

 

how is 2016 high ~$1400 versus 2018 high ~$1410

considered range bound and a move in 2019 to

~$1420(so far) considered an up trend?

the market has yet to change. you think the market

has changed. the reality is that nothing is confirmed

yet. so far it's $1420 versus $1410 versus $1400.

 

those who have taken profits recently are still

playing neutral. why would they consider buying

back in when nothing has changed for the

outlook. are they so desperate to not lose out on

the 10% that they've just taken profits on?

 

what is there to wonder about? if it goes up you're

still 90% in. if it goes down then you have 10% to

buy in cheaper. you've made your move, now let the

market tell you what your next move should be.

 

HH

[vand]

2 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

how is 2016 high ~$1400 versus 2018 high ~$1410

considered range bound and a move in 2019 to

~$1420(so far) considered an up trend?

the market has yet to change. you think the market

has changed. the reality is that nothing is confirmed

yet. so far it's $1420 versus $1410 versus $1400.

 

those who have taken profits recently are still

playing neutral. why would they consider buying

back in when nothing has changed for the

outlook. are they so desperate to not lose out on

the 10% that they've just taken profits on?

 

what is there to wonder about? if it goes up you're

still 90% in. if it goes down then you have 10% to

buy in cheaper. you've made your move, now let the

market tell you what should be your next move.

  

 HH

 

And yet we are up another $16 today and you keep spewing the same bad that those who took took short term profits did the right thing. 

Remember you are not correct if you sell and the price falls.

You are only correct if you sell, the price falls, and you manage to buy back in at that lower price.

That is why I say you have to be right twice to pull it off each time. It's a losing proposition, as people who took profits are increasingly finding out to their cost each day. Not only has the price moved against them, they are far from certain to pull the trigger if price does manage to go back to their target range. That's a lot of IFs to overcome.

[vand]

Do you think this guy took my advice to just buy for the long term, or do you think that he is now regretting the mental energy he expended worrying about the last squiggle?

 

[DarkChameleon]

9 minutes ago, vand said:

 

And yet we are up another $16 today and you keep spewing the same bad that those who took took short term profits did the right thing. 

Remember you are not correct if you sell and the price falls.

You are only correct if you sell, the price falls, and you manage to buy back in at that lower price.

That is why I say you have to be right twice to pull it off each time. It's a losing proposition, as people who took profits are increasingly finding out to their cost each day. Not only has the price moved against them, they are far from certain to pull the trigger if price does manage to go back to their target range. That's a lot of IFs to overcome.

Some,people held because they are convinced the price is going to rise, others because they never got en exit strategy set...they 3ill hold as it goes to the heavens and then falls back again.

[Nick1368]

I agree with @HawkHybrid 

I just couldn’t sit back  and watch this high spot price and do nothing about it, I sold nearly 17oz of gold in the last 10 days and made a very good profit, but I am done selling now and keeping the rest of my stack, now I am going to relax and see what happens to spot price in the coming weeks.

In my opinion this is a win win situation for me because if spot goes lower, I will feel good about myself that i sold almost half of my stack and made a good profit and can again buy back whatever I sold at a much lower price in a few months time.

if spot goes higher I will be happy that the remaining half of my stack has gone up even more in value and I also made some good profit out of my other half of stack which I sold earlier.

 

you see I am from a business family and been brought up in a business environment all my life.

i have learnt the simple rule that if you buy something and someone offers you more money for that thing you should  sell it and take the profit without any doubt which Is why I sold half of my stack and am happy with the profit I made.

But people are different and different people have different ways of thinking and seeing things, for example my fiance, she has nearly 3oz of fractional Austrian gold coins, I also suggested her to sell all or some of her gold and explained to her that the price of gold is very high right now and if she sells she will make a good profit, she just gave me the simple answer that she doesn’t need the money therefore she doesn’t need to sell regardless of the price of gold at the moment.