Lowest Gold Price

[SidS]

Okay so we have the Gold Price thread where we can discuss the goings on and current spot, maybe even with a little speculation as to where it's heading.

What do you think though will be the new absolute bottom price we are ever likely to see again in normal times? (So ruling out new total world wars or currency devaluations).

Happy to accept figures in USD or GBP.

 

Wonger thinks £400

I think £1100

[refero]

i m afraid there wont be "normal times" anytime soon

[Timberwolf]

I'd recommend trying to think of gold only in oz terms. Tying it to a £ value will become increasingly irrelevant as the currency continues it's inevitable collapse. The closer we get to the collapse, gold will quickly gain frightening amounts. Whilst a 1oz gold coin being worth £10k may sound amazing, in reality it's still 1oz gold, it's just a sign the currency is about to fall over.

The big question is what value gold gets assigned in the new monetary systems that will be setup with the coming collapse of the £, $ etc. 

[Stuntman]

I'd be surprised if the spot price of gold went back below £1200 and would probably look to buy at all prices below £1350.

[Silverr]

Golds staying up imo

[Ignorant]

An exercise in futility. Que sera sera. Anyone’s guess is as good as anyone else’s.

Edited October 22, 2023 by Ignorant

[BLOOMMAN101]

1 hour ago, Stuntman said:

I'd be surprised if the spot price of gold went back below £1200 and would probably look to buy at all prices below £1350.

that's my dollar price🙂  £1100 ish

Edited October 22, 2023 by BLOOMMAN101

[27carrots]

I think after the israel conflict ends it will quickly drop back to £1500 temporarily and then keep going back up steadily. There’s still too much inflation.

[Coverte]

I don't consider buying Gold (or any PM) spending money; 

more converting 'spare' paper money into another (hopefully better) form of money.

[Bigmarc]

3 hours ago, SidS said:

What do you think though will be the new absolute bottom price we are ever likely to see again in normal times?

Currently £1226. But will start buying again once it reaches 25% below it's all time high so may change, just want to see that drop. Silver, under £15 mark, similar reasons. 

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

The answer is a conservative margin above the AISC

Below that price it's no longer economically viable to dig it out of the ground and sell it ((AISC (All-in Sustainability Cost))

The graph below shows the picture clearly but remember this chart is 18 months out of date, with inflation, cost of finance, etc, going bananas since then. The Average and 90th percentile AISCs have risen proportional to inflation, with inflation being well into double-digits for many of the world's largest producers, some are +20%, 30% or more since Q1 2022 (Turkey, Mexico, etc)

If gold were to dip below $1700 then the bottom 10-20% of mining operations would be unprofitable. Note the correlation (Pearson's Coefficients) between precious and base metals - it's not possible for one to have compound peaks and troughs without influencing the others. If gold price cratered so would a number of other related commodities, further compounding losses for producers. On the retail side if there was a cull on prices it would put most of the smaller operations out of business

The net result would be a reduction in production and a narrowing of sales corridors, which, if demand remained constant, would necessitate a large spike in the price of gold. What of this demand? Well, the countries that have a close affinity with gold happen to be the largest by population and their economies are also growing - i.e. India and China. Global population in general is rising. The cost of labour, energy and finance is rising. Demand for gold is rising and the cost of producing gold is rising. This is why gold is at or close to nominal ATHs and why the longer timescale charts show gold is going to the moon, it's only a question of when

The absolute bottom of the market on silver is $20 and rising with several major producers already having AISCs above $20, the others are catching up. Silver is chronically undervalued

[James32]

£1 a sovereign, any day now...

[MonkeysUncle]

On 22/10/2023 at 17:37, James32 said:

£1 a sovereign, any day now...

I'll have as many as you're selling James,  thanks! 😘

[srh2023]

On 22/10/2023 at 17:37, James32 said:

£1 a sovereign, any day now...

I am not greedy. Put me down for a hundred sovereigns at that price and I will leave the rest to other TSF members 😛