2022 Sovereign proof values

[Algo]

Hey guys!

Just wanted to ask why some people think the 2022 proof sovs will see a significant price appreciation in year's to come?

Here are my counter arguments and why I partly disagree. 

There are more NGC PF 70 graded than PF 69, with close to 400 and God knows how many sitting at NGC waiting to be graded, so like any modern era coin they are commemorative but not exactly scarce. 

It's not the first time there's been an exclusive year design change, for instance just using the 2002 golden Jubilee as an example--Yes, people pay a slight premium but it's really nothing to write home about. 

If some investors/speculators are banking on the "death effect", then i can see the market becoming saturated with everyone and their half cousin putting their 2022 sov proofs up on eBay at the same time when QE passes. 

Just interested to know other people's thoughts 🤔

 

Thanks 

[JohnV66]

I've graded both of my 2022 full & half proof sovereigns. NGC graded PF70 and I can tell you first hand that I'm not letting them go for many years till after retirement. I keep the slabbed coins packed with their original boxes, capsules and CoA's as that's what I consider a complete set. What you'll see in the first year or two is a great rush, coins changing hands and being flipped for a quick pop but long term is anyone's guess when the majority fall into to strong hands. Impossible to predict what'll happen in the next 10 - 20 years.

Bear in mind that 1989 is not scare either but prices are nose-bleed territory 33 years later. I saw one sell for £1,575 a couple days ago. People have forgotten that it wasn't a popular proof back in '89 with less sold than the initial planned mintage such was the "revulsion" amongst collectors of the day whom preferred standard St. George.

I'd argue that 2002 proof sovereign prices have been very strong as seen with this latest example on June 3rd and way beyond a "slight premium" and not even graded.

Regular proof sov's have been realising prices between of around £400 (e.g. 2007, 2008, etc) according to the latest Martyn Rowe live auction in which I was participating a couple days ago and a little more on Ebay at around £440-ish. 1990's proofs have been the exception and are achieving really good prices due to low mintages. Spot's just under £360/sov as of 10/06/22.

 

Edited June 14, 2022 by JohnV66
date fix

[modofantasma]

19 minutes ago, JohnV66 said:

I'd argue that 2002 proof sovereign prices have been very strong as seen with this latest example on June 3rd and way beyond a "slight premium" and not even graded.

I'd agree the special reverse proofs seem to do pretty well compared to usual years from what I've seen. 

Perhaps so many people are 'on the ball' and getting this special year that there will be a plentiful supply though and the price won't be as strong. We'll see

[Algo]

Thanks for the indepth and insightful posts guys

The 1989 does have relative scarcity atleast at highest grade (in my opinion), with NGC PF 70 pop at 175. 
I anticipate it to be 3x rarer than the 2022 proof over the next 3-5 years but often demand > supply so popularity can trump limited supply  (assuming the demand is as high once the buzz around the Pt Jubilee has tempered years from now). 

You're also right about the 2002 proof considering there are approx 10x more in circulation than the 2022 proof.

Although they're selling slightly less than 2022 proofs are now, so 20 years later, I am not overwhelmed by these prices.

Obviously I must factor in the higher mintage, and the current buzz of the Platinum Jubilee literally being here and now. 

 

Edited June 11, 2022 by Algo

[modofantasma]

Another interesting angle... The 1989 I believe was only available in proof so anyone who wants it needs to buy proof. The 2022 however is available in bullion down to quarter so size 

 

[TeaTime]

Issue limits + number of collectors will dictate the potential for profit. The 2022 proof sovereign was a very generous issue probably greatly surpassing the number of genuine collectors.

Speculators will dictate if this turns into a money maker or not. All it takes is for public perception to be manipulated into believing 7.3g of gold formed into a disc in 2022 is the next best thing... 

Very long term - who knows ? Maybe when coinage has become obsolete then another generation of collectors will be crying out for shiny metal discs. Alternatively they may view all coins a bit like we now view shells 😁

[SilverJacks]

Here are the mintage figures for the special reverse sovereigns + 2016 special obverse:

1989 proof sovereign 23,471 / half 8,888

2002 proof sovereign 20,500 / half 10,000

2005 proof sovereign 15,458 / half 5,011

2012 proof sovereign 8,158 / half 2,303

2016 proof sovereign 7,500 / half 3,675

2017 proof sovereign 10,500 / half 5,150

2022 proof sovereign 13,040 / half 4,310

Source - https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/info/sovereign-mintages - https://www.royalmint.com/sovereign/2022-three-coin-gold-proof-set/

Ordinarily it would be safe to say that the 2022 will do well, just like all the others. With or without the Queen passing, these will all stand out as special design sovereigns regardless of the commemoration.

That said, if RM were to churn out special designs more frequently, it may take the gloss off the existing ones. At a guess, the next design could be 2026 for the Queens (potentially would-be) 100th birthday. Hopefully there isn't one any sooner than that. Although there's bound to be more SOTD and privy mark versions.

No one has a crystal ball though. Looking at the future plans from the WEF, combined with the state of affairs across the world, who knows what the future market will look like. Maybe we will all be proudly discussing ownership of NFTs instead, sadly.

 

[Oddjob]

11 hours ago, SilverJacks said:

 

That said, if RM were to churn out special designs more frequently, it may take the gloss off the existing ones. At a guess, the next design could be 2026 for the Queens (potentially would-be) 100th birthday. Hopefully there isn't one any sooner than that. Although there's bound to be more SOTD and privy mark versions.

 

 

i wouldn't put it past RM to do a SOTD come 2 June 2023 to commemorate the 70th anniversary of QEII's coronation. 

[terakris]

8 hours ago, Oddjob said:

i wouldn't put it past RM to do a SOTD come 2 June 2023 to commemorate the 70th anniversary of QEII's coronation. 

They will do that as they did it previously. There is a 2018 sotd for this.

[westminstrel]

2 hours ago, terakris said:

They will do that as they did it previously. There is a 2018 sotd for this.

A crown with a 70 privy most likely.

I’m sure the proof sovereigns will also have the same privy. 

Edited June 12, 2022 by westminstrel

[Britannia47]

A  quick picci ... 33 years later I think! and for no reason at all, to remind those who remember, today 14th June is 'Liberation Day' ( 40 years since the end of the Falklands War)