Will we see a boom in precious metals with the potential future roll out of UBI?

[Coverte]

1 hour ago, GoldDiggerDave said:

Who’d thought we’d get to a stage where cash is no longer king.  

 

Both the banks and government, the latter not being satisfied with having the ridiculous % number of surveillance cameras per head of population.

[ady]

You are the currency of the elites. From birth you are a corporation your name capitalized and on every official document, until your death when on your headstone your name is still capitalized. You are born into bondage/ slavery ie the financial bonds that are raised in the bond market are basically you. This is why suicide was illegal, it was viewed as destruction of state property. Tax is the theft of your labour. Government does not produce anything, it basically breaks your leg, and thinks it is doing you a favour by giving you a crutch. UBI just enables government further control, as with this currency they purport to give you comes with further conditions. Do you think they would let you vote if it really made a difference, all the parties are paid for. Be careful what you wish for.

[Bigmarc]

6 hours ago, Millicent said:

Oooh, lots to unpack here.

Yeah, I'm concerned about cash being discouraged. "Just use a card" is all well and good, but our kids don't have cards for pocket money to spend at the shop on the way home from school, and the card payments system restricts trade to people who are big enough businesses to be worth getting a card payment thing, or transactions big enough to wait for bank transfers - putting burdens on the little guy, as usual.

As for UBI - well, there's two different things to think about here.

Firstly, is some kind of welfare payment a good or bad thing?

The argument against is that people should be responsible for their own upkeep, and that welfare systems reward people for slobbing around at home rather than bothering to work, encouraging selfishness. I'm sure SOME people are like that, but most people on benefits I see are either disabled and can't work, or can't work enough hours, or struggling with caring responsibilities or something along those lines, and are generally (a) really stressed because they're barely covering the rent and bills and food and (b) ashamed about being on benefits. I'm sure there IS some piss-taking, but taking away the benefit system because of that just makes life a lot harder for the people who really need it. When we (this account is shared between a married couple, husband is writing this) had just had our first child, my wife was recovering from a bad labour and couldn't walk without crutches, I was self employed and working from home as an IT contractor - and our home was made uninhabitable for a year by a flood. We had insurance, but not for business interruption, and while it paid for repairs to the house and new furniture, it didn't cover the many extra costs of suddenly looking after a sick wife and a small baby without a house - and it was a year before the works were done and we could move back in. Our savings were gone pretty quickly, and we came out of it with massive credit card debts as the banks wouldn't give us a loan under those circumstances, and if we'd applied for benefits we'd have had to somehow make ends meet for months before we got anything - I didn't realise how long the trouble we got into would last for and thought it wasn't worth applying because I hoped we'd be back on our feet before it started to pay out, especially given the paltry amounts we'd have gotten, so never bothered, although in hindsight I should have...

So, the welfare system we have is still pretty miserly, and really didn't support us when we really could have done with it. I am happy that my taxes go towards supporting people who have had bad luck, both because I want people to be happy, and because I think that if you don't provide for poor people, they will be driven to rob you out of desperation, they won't have money to spend in shops to drive the economy, they won't be able to afford to look after themselves so diseases will spread through their population and then infect the rest of us, we'll just end up with ghettos/slums etc etc - it is not only *nice* but in our *selfish best interests* to look out for each other! Trials of UBI around the world have resulted in more people working in the long run, which seems to suggest that the "It encourages laziness" effect is outweighed by factors like making it practical for people to get more training and then go for jobs that were previously out of their reach, etc.

Secondly, is UBI a better kind of welfare payment than the current means-tested system?

Well, if we'd had a UBI when our house had flooded and I couldn't work for months, then we would have still had some income, without needing to argue that we're eligible or wait for it to come through or anything, which would certainly have been nice. A UBI funded from increased income tax is a net positive for people below some income threshold where the tax increase matches the UBI they get, and a tax increase for people above that, so it would do something to close the rich/poor divide, which I'd say is a good thing. The current welfare system is quite expensive to administer, with all the paperwork involved, and a UBI would cut that out, thereby being more "efficient" in the cost of the system turning into actual cash in recipient's hands.

As to whether it would just cause rents and food prices and so on to rise - I am not enough of an economist to predict that. Apparently that's not been seen in trials, but the trials are limited. I think it's worth doing larger trials to find ou!

Brilliant, well written. 

Many people seem to get all their info from watching channel 5 of a evening. 

The benefits system is flawed and out of hand but people do generally need it. Ubi couldn't replace everything but if it is a move towards reform then surely it is a positive thing all round.

[Bigmarc]

12 hours ago, Bigmarc said:

Many people seem to get all their info from watching channel 5 of a evening. 

Good morning all.

My quote was unfair and derogatory. Apologies for that.

I have come to the realization that I have to many personal conflicts of interest and am going to take a step back from the chat on this forum. I came here to take time out and to share the enjoyment of precious metals. Full disclosure here that us, as a family are receivers of benefits, ironically we probably do not need them. My wife starts work at 8 and finishes at 5, I had to take a night roll from 10pm to 6am. We had to do this to cover the constant hospital visits for my son. We are both professionals, we can read, write, have skills and we have a medium size TV but no ps5 (would love one but not enough time). Because of the situation I am now in, I find myself feeling like a protector of the vulnerable. Unfortunately this doesn't bode well on the majority of the forum chat and I probably need to work on my delivery. Ironically in a previous life I was the man sitting there laughing at the undatables and I did have hard line political views but I had to learn very quickly to not find my only enjoyment being critical of others. This is a personal journey and do not wish to be in constant conflict with the general consensus. 

Cheers 

Bm

[AppleZippoandMetronome]

The idea behind UBI is one that I don't have an issue with however its been proven many times not to work because there are factors that limit success outside of just giving people money. One of the biggest issues is the more money you have circulating in the public the more cost of goods will go up. Eventually you'll reach a point where it doesn't matter how much cash is being handed out because the cost of goods have gone up so much no one is any further ahead.

I've seen this play out in areas where minimum wage was suddenly massively increased. In Canada a number of the provinces decided to massively incease minimum wage over a relatively short period of time. The end result seems to be much higher cost of goods - food and energy costs in particular have sky rocketed - but so have rents, house costs, etc, etc. It doesn't take much maths to work out those people who were earning the minimum wage really are no better off. Whats worse is that those who were on a higher wage but didn't get any bump up now also have to pay more for everything so are effectively worse off. I have friends and family there who were living comfortably in 2008 but struggle these days.

So yes while I love the the idea of things like UBI I really wish people would realise there are complications beyond just the happy, smiley good intentions.

EDIT: And to actually answer the original question that was posed...   no I don't think there will be a rush into PM's because unlike a one off payment a regular payment and that regular extra boost of cash being fed into the economy will cause inflation which is likely where most of the money will go.

Edited May 18, 2021 by AppleZippoandMetronome

[SidS]

29 minutes ago, AppleZippoandMetronome said:

In Canada a number of the provinces decided to massively incease minimum wage over a relatively short period of time. The end result seems to be much higher cost of goods - food and energy costs in particular have sky rocketed - but so have rents, house costs, etc, etc.

Out of interest, since you've seen it first hand, I have some thoughts that you've already kind of clarified but wondered if my surmising would be true.

My thoughts are: if you increase the minimum wage (or introduce a basic income), then as you have indicated, the prices/costs move up in response, like a set of goal posts moving in tandem.

So my thoughts from this then are that the purchasing power of the currency is diminished (inflation), which then leads to lower value coins being more cost to mint than their face, hence the withdrawal of lower denomination coins, e.g.the penny in Canada.

This then means lower value coins either fall out or circulation or are removed, which then means the inflationary push on the currency increases. (I know on credit cards you can still pay to the penny). But if the currency itself only allows payment to the nearest 5c or 10c then the prices get pushed up further.

So UBI could simply be a catalyst for speeding up inflation, hitting savers even harder?

Just a thought...

[Millicent]

42 minutes ago, AppleZippoandMetronome said:

I've seen this play out in areas where minimum wage was suddenly massively increased. In Canada a number of the provinces decided to massively incease minimum wage over a relatively short period of time. The end result seems to be much higher cost of goods - food and energy costs in particular have sky rocketed - but so have rents, house costs, etc, etc. It doesn't take much maths to work out those people who were earning the minimum wage really are no better off. Whats worse is that those who were on a higher wage but didn't get any bump up now also have to pay more for everything so are effectively worse off. I have friends and family there who were living comfortably in 2008 but struggle these days.

I'm not so keen on minimum wages either, because they make it hard for companies to hire low-skilled people - if you don't have the skills/health to do enough work to make yourself "worth" the minimum wage, nobody will hire you. And a rising minimum wage just makes it worse.

Also, a minimum wage is a cost to companies, which will definitely push prices up! UBI could be better because it's given to everyone equally (so doesn't harm people earning above minimum wage already, as you describe) and it's paid from taxation rather than as a penalty to companies that need a lot of low-skilled labour.

However, I definitely agree with you that people need to carefully consider the consequences of things. Society and the economy are tremendously complex systems, and anything we do to them will have negative side-effects for *somebody*, and it's really hard to work out what that will be. It's important to think "How will people abuse this new system?" - landlords just increasing rents because they know their tenants can now afford more, for instance. A UBI scheme will need to have considered all of these things and taken steps to mitigate them.

But there's a bunch of UBI trials that have happened, and more in progress - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_pilots - hopefully we will be able to learn from them and see if a way can be found to improve on the current situation!

8 minutes ago, SidS said:

So UBI could simply be a catalyst for speeding up inflation, hitting savers even harder?

Just a thought...

GOOD NEWS FOR STACKERS THEN *rubs hands greedily* 😉

[SidS]

6 minutes ago, Millicent said:

GOOD NEWS FOR STACKERS THEN *rubs hands greedily* 

To be fair that's where I was heading...

[KDave]

The replies to this thread have been interesting and as predicted. Most want charity to exist and for the state to provide it, which means for the tax payer to provide it. 

This has solidified my view that ubi is the preferred move forward, regardless of the dangers. Ubi will replace state benefits eventually and roll into the state pension. Give it a couple of years, higher interest rates will force government to make cuts and ubi will be the last to go for politicians, but benefits will be far easier to cut them, followed by pensions. Reap what you sow chaps. 

[CaptCaveMan]

Universal Basic Income to be tested in Wales:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-57120354

Edit: Bother, same story as OP 🙄

Edited May 18, 2021 by CaptCaveMan

[HerefordBullyun]

2 minutes ago, CaptCaveMan said:

Universal Basic Income to be tested in Wales:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-57120354

Leeks and coal! Thats why coal was up 80% yesterday on the LSE!

Edited May 18, 2021 by HerefordBullyun

[Stuntman]

The sheep in Wales will also be even more nervous, now that Welsh people have more money to spend on 'leisure activities'... 😉

[HerefordBullyun]

9 minutes ago, Stuntman said:

The sheep in Wales will also be even more nervous, now that Welsh people have more money to spend on 'leisure activities'... 😉

I like the welsh, nice countryside - good singers nice lamb and one of the funniest jokes I heard.

What do you call a welshman with a stick up his jacksey?

Taffy Apple!

Edited May 18, 2021 by HerefordBullyun

[Stuntman]

I like Wales and the Welsh too 🙂

Particularly their accents.  Ask a Welsh person to say 'fabulously pessimistic European document' and you'll see (hear) what I mean!

[HerefordBullyun]

3 minutes ago, Stuntman said:

I like Wales and the Welsh too 🙂

Particularly their accents.  Ask a Welsh person to say 'fabulously pessimistic European document' and you'll see (hear) what I mean!

Yes I do like it when they do speak welsh as you can tell when they are speaking it normally becuase all the walls are covered in flob!

[Stuntman]

There's a shortage of vowels and a surfeit of flob 😉

Anyway:

Fabooooooooolously pesseeeeeeeeeeemistic Ooooooooooooooropean Docoooooooooooooooooment 😄

[Arganto]

On 18/05/2021 at 10:33, Bigmarc said:

This is a personal journey and do not wish to be in constant conflict with the general consensus. 

Cheers 

Bm

Please don't apologise for having an opinion, and I also wouldn't worry about any kind of consensus. One of the things I like about TSF is the broad range of subjects that are discussed, and the discourse therein. It is good to have personal ideals and viewpoints challenged, it's the way forward for personal growth. I have enjoyed reading your posts here and elsewhere, regardless of whether you are for or against my own personal opinion. Stick around bud.

[HerefordBullyun]

1 hour ago, Liam84 said:

Please don't apologise for having an opinion, and I also wouldn't worry about any kind of consensus. One of the things I like about TSF is the broad range of subjects that are discussed, and the discourse therein. It is good to have personal ideals and viewpoints challenged, it's the way forward for personal growth. I have enjoyed reading your posts here and elsewhere, regardless of whether you are for or against my own personal opinion. Stick around bud.

Agreed we all cant have the same view points - as James Blunt said everyone opinions just like arssseholes - everybody has one! Although I am not infffering anyone is said bottom hole!

[ady]

UBI, BECAREFUL, The mouse does not realise why the cheese is free, if we get UBI and CBDC you will be drawn right into the control matrix. Save in precious metals and use all the cash you can when you can.