Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.

[BLOOMMAN101]

Right that's me finished watching for today what an afternoon     feet up +cup of tea

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

How are markets going to treat us in a few hours' time? 

Looking at the TA and listening to other analysts, they are predicting a blood bath with another 10% potentially being wiped out. For silver a 10% drop would be below the AISC of several major mining operations. I don't know how that's possible unless we ignore physical reality and only use technical analysis but that's what markets like to do

[BLOOMMAN101]

1 minute ago, HonestMoneyGoldSilver said:

How are markets going to treat us in a few hours' time? 

Looking at the TA and listening to other analysts, they are predicting a blood bath with another 10% potentially being wiped out. For silver a 10% drop would be below the AISC of several major mining operations. I don't know how that's possible unless we ignore physical reality and only use technical analysis but that's what markets like to do

I Was wondering if Fridays drop was some sort of housekeeping excercise for somebody balancing books I think it was the last day of the 3rd quarter.  just a thought

[theman73]

15 minutes ago, BLOOMMAN101 said:

somebody balancing books

JP Morgan most likely 

[Gruff]

46 minutes ago, theman73 said:

JP Morgan most likely 

Ja cos they've rolled off the suspension they had from the Rico charges when they got that $920 million fine a couple years ago. So now back to f*cking the market

[theman73]

18 minutes ago, Gruff said:

Ja cos they've rolled off the suspension they had from the Rico charges when they got that $920 million fine a couple years ago. So now back to f*cking the market

Three times convicted, they still making money on the silver market, I love the ''free market'' in the USA

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

1 hour ago, BLOOMMAN101 said:

I Was wondering if Fridays drop was some sort of housekeeping excercise for somebody balancing books I think it was the last day of the 3rd quarter.  just a thought

You're right. When the technical analysts are broadly saying the same thing it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The housekeeping and book balancing is due to revised expectations of Fed, BoE, ECB policies. If you go back a few months people were saying rates would briefly peak around 5.5-6% and then begin to drop back in Q4 2023 or Q1 2024. The CBs have pushed that timescale in their estimation back to late 2024 or 2025. Interest rates were unchanged but the market's view of that rate shifted a lot. Much of it is irrational IMHO but the reasons analysts are giving for the sharp drops are people collectively housekeeping between gold, bills, notes and bonds.

Much of that housekeeping may have already taken place and it could be buying the dip when we open or it might have taken time for the housekeeping memo to filter through and there could be further sell-offs. More than 50% of analysts are saying further sell-offs

[theman73]

Just now, HonestMoneyGoldSilver said:

More than 50% of analysts are saying further sell-offs

We have no inflation at all

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

PeTrOl AnD gRoCeRiEs ArE cHeAp

I'm LoOkInG fOrWaRd To ReAdInG mY iNsUrAnCe ReNeWaL qUoTe

[BLOOMMAN101]

more downside atm

 

 

 

Let's see what happens when the Yanks open

 

Edited October 2, 2023 by BLOOMMAN101

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

Brutal but expected by some people

We're pretty much done now IMHO for the downside. If we're not done and threaten to break $20 there are bigger systemic issues with markets and the global economy than just what's happening with silver. $21.15 (£17.50) for me is a strong buy, anything close to $20 (£16.75) is back up the truck. It's easy to say silver "shouldn't be this price" but if you really believe that, if you believe your own analyses then you should be out there buying the dip (in physical and even paper if you're so inclined)

I got into silver in the $18-20 range and that was the bottom of the market at the time. I think of everything that's happened since then, especially with inflation, and for the price to be the same or similar to those levels just doesn't make sense on any level, we're being messed with!

Listen to the analyses today. Apparently we're back to "risk on", which, EXCUSE ME? Risk ON? Yea good luck with that, go shove your money into real estate and FAANG+, if you've got a death wish. A lot of money is being taken from gold, silver, stocks, real estate and being put into MMFs or directly buying government bonds, which is a risk-OFF activity

Brothers in metals, it's time to step up. If someone offered you a tube of nice silver for £21/coin two weeks/months ago you would think that's a good deal and buy it. If someone offered you a sovereign for £365 two weeks/months ago you would think you're getting a bargain

You can now buy at those prices or close to it. I don't have thousands this month to spend on gold and silver but I'll try to aim for 50 ounces of silver and a couple of sovs

[SiCole]

16 minutes ago, HonestMoneyGoldSilver said:

Brutal but expected by some people

We're pretty much done now IMHO for the downside. If we're not done and threaten to break $20 there are bigger systemic issues with markets and the global economy than just what's happening with silver. $21.15 (£17.50) for me is a strong buy, anything close to $20 (£16.75) is back up the truck. It's easy to say silver "shouldn't be this price" but if you really believe that, if you believe your own analyses then you should be out there buying the dip (in physical and even paper if you're so inclined)

I got into silver in the $18-20 range and that was the bottom of the market at the time. I think of everything that's happened since then, especially with inflation, and for the price to be the same or similar to those levels just doesn't make sense on any level, we're being messed with!

Listen to the analyses today. Apparently we're back to "risk on", which, EXCUSE ME? Risk ON? Yea good luck with that, go shove your money into real estate and FAANG+, if you've got a death wish. A lot of money is being taken from gold, silver, stocks, real estate and being put into MMFs or directly buying government bonds, which is a risk-OFF activity

Brothers in metals, it's time to step up. If someone offered you a tube of nice silver for £21/coin two weeks/months ago you would think that's a good deal and buy it. If someone offered you a sovereign for £365 two weeks/months ago you would think you're getting a bargain

You can now buy at those prices or close to it. I don't have thousands this month to spend on gold and silver but I'll try to aim for 50 ounces of silver and a couple of sovs

I have a better explanation:

 

[BLOOMMAN101]

 

 

 

Edited October 2, 2023 by BLOOMMAN101

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

1 minute ago, BLOOMMAN101 said:

 

 

 

I like this guy or some aspects of what he says anyway - "the point is not to be correct, it's to make money"

Having said that, there are more fundamental analyses than technical analysis, which some people take as gospel but in reality TA is just a biased coin toss. Sure, the TA might give you 60-65% in a 50/50 flip but there's still a 35-40% chance the TA is misleading. Of course time frames make a huge difference but if the AISC of several major mining operations was already well above $20/oz several quarters ago, has there been a deflationary event that I've missed? Has the price of finance gone back to historically low 0% levels? Nouriel Roubini, a guy I like but others hate, has stated that going back to 2% inflation is "Mission Impossible". Cost of finance is sticky. Wage increases are sticky - inflation can go down but good luck trying to lower the wages of workers with existing contracts. Oil is doing its own thing and has counterintuitively spiked quite a lot if we're headed for global recession, but then again there is precedent for a big spike in oil actually causing a deflationary event

When all is said and done, if the price of silver on the open "free" market is less than what it costs to mine, refine and transport, it's impossible for silver to stay below $20/oz without causing major operations to curtail or cease production, which would dramatically squeeze supply relative to demand and force the price of silver back up to "acceptable" levels

[BLOOMMAN101]

@HonestMoneyGoldSilver  with you on that .Its just a  Buying opportunity for physical for me

[silversky]

From the top on Friday, to the current bottom today it's a full 10% drop in $$

That's absolutely savage, and I'm not even sure what the excuse event for the actual trigger was.  It just happened suddenly and gained momentum.  It currently looks like a falling knife to me.  Pack up and wait a week or two would be my instinct if I were buying at the moment.

[HerefordBullyun]

Gold has gone down a $1000 in the space of weeks, the Dollar will be strong and continue to be strong, for the forseeable until summer. Its not going to look good for Gold and even worse for silver, but the only saving grace could be a credit event. I reckon the fed will start cutting rates in the summer next year.

 

[James32]

6 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Gold has gone down a $1000 in the space of weeks, the Dollar will be strong and continue to be strong, for the forseeable until summer. Its not going to look good for Gold and even worse for silver, but the only saving grace could be a credit event. I reckon the fed will start cutting rates in the summer next year.

 

Down a thousand... jeezus 

[NGMD]

9 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Gold has gone down a $1000 in the space of weeks, the Dollar will be strong and continue to be strong, for the forseeable until summer. Its not going to look good for Gold and even worse for silver, but the only saving grace could be a credit event. I reckon the fed will start cutting rates in the summer next year.

 

$1000 you say. Ok. Sounds legit.

[Darr3nG]

6 minutes ago, NGMD said:

$1000 you say. Ok. Sounds legit.

Bully is Wonger?

[Sovhead]

18 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Gold has gone down a $1000 in the space of weeks, the Dollar will be strong and continue to be strong, for the forseeable until summer. Its not going to look good for Gold and even worse for silver, but the only saving grace could be a credit event. I reckon the fed will start cutting rates in the summer next year.

 

No it hasn’t where you get that from???

[HerefordBullyun]

4 minutes ago, Sovhead said:

No it hasn’t where you get that from???

Theres some rubbish maths right there on that website!

[Sovhead]

6 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Theres some rubbish maths right there on that website!

Got the 3 month chart as well…

[NGMD]

We good now?

[HerefordBullyun]

Alright I got my 100s and thousand mixed up!