£3000 in stock market?

[Kman]

I'm a bit annoyed with myself today

From the charts, trends, support, $16 looked like the bottom for Carnival so I bought at the start of Friday $250

I thought as long as it stays connected to $16 keep it, can go down a few % as long as it doesn't open/close without touching $16 in  day

My expectation was I'd make an easy 15-20% in a few days

With the markets starting off down today, carnival itself down 5.6%, news they've taken out more debt

I thought ok there's no way they're going to touch $16 again just take my 5% loss and leave it (changing from original plan of only selling if it didn't touch $16 in the day) 

Well where has the price gone since.. up 11% from where I sold it earlier lol to $16.70

I'm not sure what the lesson here for me is.. stick to the original plan, don't get spooked by a few % down or if I was right with the ugly start + bad news of new loans (god knows when they're ever going to be in profit will all these loans) to sell

I guess I was right to sell, have to respect news in the real world over technical analysis, even if it turned out to be the wrong move 

 

 

[stackspot]

5 minutes ago, Kman said:

I'm a bit annoyed with myself today

From the charts, trends, support, $16 looked like the bottom for Carnival so I bought at the start of Friday $250

I thought as long as it stays connected to $16 keep it, can go down a few % as long as it doesn't open/close without touching $16 in  day

My expectation was I'd make an easy 15-20% in a few days

With the markets starting off down today, carnival itself down 5.6%, news they've taken out more debt

I thought ok there's no way they're going to touch $16 again just take my 5% loss and leave it (changing from original plan of only selling if it didn't touch $16 in the day) 

Well where has the price gone since.. up 11% from where I sold it earlier lol to $16.70

I'm not sure what the lesson here for me is.. stick to the original plan, don't get spooked by a few % down or if I was right with the ugly start + bad news of new loans (god knows when they're ever going to be in profit will all these loans) to sell

 

 

It's a bit like me playing chess...  "fools rush in" 🤪

No offence intended. I've ****ed up shares so many times🙂

[Kman]

6 minutes ago, stackspot said:

It's a bit like me playing chess...  "fools rush in" 🤪

No offence intended. I've ****ed up shares so many times🙂

I probably need to make more concrete rules

Also cruises are too speculative to begin with, maybe not intraday but holding over the course of a few days any bit of bad news and travel are the first ones to drop off

I saw facebook down 3% at the start of the day too and thought that was a much better play after it broke above 210.70, get in on the swing up, but I was too annoyed after losing money on carnival so didn't want to get involved

Still early days, I will say the loss is a paid towards a learning experience 

[stackspot]

2 minutes ago, Kman said:

I probably need to make more concrete rules

Also cruises are too speculative to begin with, maybe not intraday but holding over the course of a few days any bit of bad news and travel are the first ones to drop off

I saw facebook down 3% at the start of the day too and thought that was a much better play after it broke above 210.70, get in on the swing up, but I was too annoyed after losing money on carnival so didn't want to get involved

Still early days, I will say the loss is a paid towards a learning experience 

If you're getting annoyed you're getting emotional and the stock market is no place for emotion 🙂

 

[Kman]

4 minutes ago, stackspot said:

If you're getting annoyed you're getting emotional and the stock market is no place for emotion 🙂

 

Well that's all about having a clear plan you stick to beforehand isn't it, takes emotion out of it 

But my plan didn't involve bad news about an expensive loan 🤕

 

 

 

[stackspot]

3 minutes ago, Kman said:

Well that's all about having a clear plan you stick to beforehand isn't it, takes emotion out of it 

But my plan didn't involve bad news about an expensive loan 🤕

 

 

 

Yeah but how are the market makers going to interpret that

Thats why long term the fundamentals are likely to come through

but short term it can be a bit of a casino

[HerefordBullyun]

18 minutes ago, stackspot said:

Yeah but how are the market makers going to interpret that

Thats why long term the fundamentals are likely to come through

but short term it can be a bit of a casino

Here sounds like a man speaking with experience @Kman this is sound advice 

[ZigZag]

33 minutes ago, Kman said:

Well that's all about having a clear plan you stick to beforehand isn't it, takes emotion out of it 

But my plan didn't involve bad news about an expensive loan 🤕

 

 

 

Nobody is right all of the time, anyone who proclaims to be is a liar.

Maybe a set of investing rules for for yourself would help take any frustration away, when things don’t quite go to plan. Then at least you know you made the right decisions (by your rules) and shouldn’t worry if it doesn’t go the way you expect.

[AuricGoldfinger]

20 minutes ago, stackspot said:short term it can be a bit of a casino

This is why i try not to gamble and speculate. Slow and steady wins the race. No idea if are in a bull trap at the moment or not. SMT has done nicely for me with Amazon and Tesla leading the way. It’s up 35%, I have Vanguard Equity which is up 12%, Witan which is up 5%, and L&G Gilts which is up 1%. 
 

Overall a very healthy 13% up at the moment which is a nice return in 3 months. Looking to hold long term and i think it’s reasonably diverse, they are well managed funds and although I could have gone all in on SMT I don’t regret spreading it about even though i have always liked that fund.

[HawkHybrid]

1 hour ago, Kman said:

Still early days, I will say the loss is a paid towards a learning experience

you took a loss but what did you learn?

 

consider making a plan:

I will close my position if it does this...

I will continue to hold if it does this... etc.

then you can tally your losses versus your gains and work out if the overall plan

is in profit or not(ie collect data from losses and wins and learn from it)

try to be consistent because you don't want to be gambling.

 

HH

[Kman]

1 minute ago, HawkHybrid said:

you took a loss but what did you learn?

 

consider making a plan:

I will close my position if it does this...

I will continue to hold if it does this... etc.

then you can tally your losses versus your gains and work out if the overall plan

is in profit or not(ie collect data from losses and wins and learn from it)

try to be consistent because you don't want to be gambling

I did have a plan, as long as the candle doesn't open/close under $16 in a day, stay in 

But I was already psyched out a bit by the link to fed spending going down - maybe we had entered a new downtrend in the market 

 

That was in my mind, then the expensive loan news and the quick 5% dip, abort 

Maybe I should have had a firm support price along side the candle close, which would have been 15.35p, which it went under 

[Kman]

Any idea what companies are likely to benefit from these type schemes? 

Or is it a case of waiting for announcements of firms being given deals

"Boris Johnson is promising to “build, build, build” by injecting billions of pounds into public projects to ease the UK through the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic."

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-new-deal-rebuild-investment-after-coronavirus-pandemic-a4483826.html

[ZigZag]

2 hours ago, Kman said:

Any idea what companies are likely to benefit from these type schemes? 

Or is it a case of waiting for announcements of firms being given deals

"Boris Johnson is promising to “build, build, build” by injecting billions of pounds into public projects to ease the UK through the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic."

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-new-deal-rebuild-investment-after-coronavirus-pandemic-a4483826.html

Well as he was photographed wearing a Bowmer & Kirkland I’d say those construction companies involved in infrastructure projects, trouble is you can always get companies like Carrilion in that group 🙄

[FTYBR]

Still plenty of value in the oilies at the moment. JKX and Rockrose energy (RRE) look like incredible plays given cash position/earnings. Took a stake in JKX last month, now looking to buy RRE on this recent dip

[SilvergunSuperman]

9 hours ago, Kman said:

Any idea what companies are likely to benefit from these type schemes? 

Or is it a case of waiting for announcements of firms being given deals

"Boris Johnson is promising to “build, build, build” by injecting billions of pounds into public projects to ease the UK through the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic."

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-new-deal-rebuild-investment-after-coronavirus-pandemic-a4483826.html

Just google some current cabinet members' university friends and see if any of them own construction companies

[Cornishfarmer]

What do roper think of aston Martin? Price dropped away a lot. It’s a great brand in a history of bony cars  Anyone think that it’s worth a punt then hoping the Middle Easterns come in and buy it out for the name and history..... too prestigious to fail or just another victim of carona virus???

[Martlet]

Aston Martin (AML) definitely one to watch. Had a poor listing and got kicked down as punishment for overvaluing, now oversold with potential for significant upswing.

[ZigZag]

13 minutes ago, Cornishfarmer said:

What do roper think of aston Martin? Price dropped away a lot. It’s a great brand in a history of bony cars  Anyone think that it’s worth a punt then hoping the Middle Easterns come in and buy it out for the name and history..... too prestigious to fail or just another victim of carona virus???

It’s already got a man with huge pockets behind it, google Lawrence Stroll. Trouble is he saw it as a vanity project i.m.o when he threw his £540 odd million at it, only to need another £152 odd million a few months later to tied them over Coronavirus. The DBX is a popular niche car and for all the brand reasons will have still some appeal/demand.

Getting Tobias Moers the ex Mercedes chief in, is a smart move and the DBX SUV should make waves. The biggest problem they have is despite niche appeal and shrinking market to compete in, they have debts of £883 million and its going to take further losses this quarter/ year; so the big gamble as to how much more refinancing they will need is still unknown and I’d guess why it’s shares are still trending down.

[Kman]

12 hours ago, Cornishfarmer said:

What do roper think of aston Martin? Price dropped away a lot. It’s a great brand in a history of bony cars  Anyone think that it’s worth a punt then hoping the Middle Easterns come in and buy it out for the name and history..... too prestigious to fail or just another victim of carona virus???

Seems like the poster boy for stocks to avoid atm, very risky

If you could get in very early on some good news though I can imagine a very nice profit

I would want that good news before any money went in, seems just as likely to half as double if the news is bad 

Wednesday 29 July 2020 is their Q2 results I'd be quite scared to be holding their stock then

 

[MancunianStacker]

13 hours ago, Martlet said:

Aston Martin (AML) definitely one to watch. Had a poor listing and got kicked down as punishment for overvaluing, now oversold with potential for significant upswing.

When it goes below 30p it might be a good buy. 

[KDave]

Boris has added further weight to investing for reflation. Build build build = borrow borrow borrow and spend spend spend. Direct injections of liquidity into the economy.

We need to look at inflation. Trying to second guess the companies that will benefit from the liquidity first is the hard way to play this. Think about how inflation works, who will pay for it and who can avoid it, and invest accordingly. The companies that will benefit the most/lose the least from inflation will be those who supply at the first part of the chain. The further down the chain you get to the end consumer, the less inflation is a benefit/the more they will lose out. For example, the farmer has to buy fertiliser to grow a profitable amount of produce. The company selling the fertiliser can pass on almost all of inflation associated costs (oil). The farmer has to eat those costs and try to recoup some when selling his produce to the processing company. The food processing company will in turn attempt to pass on some of those inherited costs plus their own increasing costs, to the supermarket, who in turn will price in accordance to the consumer. It is a cumulative effect of which the consumer will lose the most. The supplier of the fertiliser will be fine.

Companies with large amount of fixed debt will benefit. Telecoms for example, huge amounts of debt, but fixed for the long term, with the borrowed currency used to build assets which will not depreciate to the same extent as the debt used to build them (5G). They will also pass on inflation associated costs to the consumer and potentially, increase real returns over the cycle utilising infrastructure which in hindsight and thanks to cheap debt, was built at a huge discount in the previous economic environment.

This is also why oil is so attractive. Oil is the leverage on almost every human endeavour, despite the narratives around climate change there is nothing that can supply the same compact portable leverage on production for the cost. Not only does it have first place in the inflation chain, it has governments worldwide injecting liquidity into projects that will require enormous amount of leverage. Infrastructure, roads, rail. I have said it all before so that will do. 

[AuricGoldfinger]

@kdave and what’s the best way to “buy oil” at the moment would you say?

[KDave]

2 hours ago, AuricGoldfinger said:

@kdave and what’s the best way to “buy oil” at the moment would you say?

I don't know the best way yet, personally I am making small monthly buys to average into the big oil companies that I think have a good chance to survive these conditions, though the majority were bought back in March (more luck than judgement I think). The recommendation above for RRE looks like a good one, although a small company it was formed during $50 a barrel oil conditions and looks good, there are likely others like this outside the majors. 

I have not looked into managed funds but likely there will be some well priced, oil heavy funds about at the moment.

Or more broadly, given the many industrial constituents of the FTSE 100, an appropriately weighted tracker in favour of the oil companies would also be a decent way to invest along these lines of thinking cheaply and remain diversified, the issue is weighting within the tracker. Weighting towards the oil and gas and mining sectors is what I would want but its all opinion and theory at this point. Give it a few years we will know what the best way is (was).  

[HerefordBullyun]

Bought some Wetherspoons shares today hoping the price will go up when they start trading again 

[AuricGoldfinger]

@HerefordBullyun that’s one of the ones i was thinking will do very well. 

Sticking to my boring strategy though of well managed funds.

Good luck, hope you make a few quid I’m sure you will 👍