£3000 in stock market?

[HerefordBullyun]

Qualcom could be a good investment due to their chips being used in the roll out of 5G - they could be a long term buy and hold.

 

[TheApe]

Im up 60 percent on my oil investments from Fridays madness!.

Could have some way to run too.

[Kman]

US stocks up a lot premarket

Notably Carnival 18%

 

[TheApe]

Lads my oil stock is through the roof today. 

If I cash it out now Im a much more wealthy man.

[Kman]

I knew it, market trying to entice me in yesterday then I would have been met with a 5% drop in a day psh lol

Did sobering news about Germany actually effect the market?

"German trade data for April this morning were grim, with a 24% monthly slump in exports in April, at the height of the coronavirus crisis. Germany’s trade surplus shrank much more than expected, to €3.2bn from €12.8bn in March, as imports dropped less than exports, by 16.5%."

[AuricGoldfinger]

I’m up 10% over all and I’m very happy with that -but i must admit my approach is much more cautious and with a long term view. These wild swings would give me a heart attack, I’d rather just sit back with the slow and steady approach

[Kman]

Will be a Fed news conference today where they're going to talk about things like outlook on economic growth, inflation and unemployment

I think it's 2pm in the US, not sure what timezone though so maybe 7pm here

Depending what they say might cause moves one way or the other 

 

[TheApe]

Just now, Kman said:

Will be a Fed news conference today where they're going to talk about things like outlook on economic growth, inflation and unemployment

I think it's 2pm in the US, not sure what timezone though so maybe 7pm here

Depending what they say might cause moves one way or the other 

 

OOOOOOOH, come on big crash. And flood into Gold. 

[Kman]

4 hours ago, TheApe said:

OOOOOOOH, come on big crash. And flood into Gold. 

I'd guess they would be more inclined to put a positive spin on things and lie as best they can but we shall see

starts at 7:30

 

[stackspot]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-portfolio-of-stocks-being-bought-by-mom-and-pop-investors-is-trouncing-wall-st-pros-heres-what-theyre-buying-2020-06-15?mod=home-page

[Zolee]

Check out Equinix (EQIX), more and more companies move their infrastructure to the cloud, and Equinix provides connection to public cloud providers (Google, AWS, MS Azure), also provides unique NFV solutions to connect them to their private cloud infrastructure.

 

[Kman]

Enphase (solar company) are down 13% today

https://www.marketscreener.com/ENPHASE-ENERGY-INC-10335237/news/Prescience-Point-Capital-Management-Issues-Negative-Research-Report-on-Enphase-Energy-Inc-NASDAQ-30784396/

A pretty damning report has come out

"Our research suggests that at least 39%, or $205 million, of US revenue reported by the company is potentially fabricated, as is a significant portion of the company's international revenue. Multiple former employees in India independently told our private investigators that Enphase was fabricating figures it reports publicly, and that the company is using overseas operations to help executives perpetrate potential accounting violations.

"The explosive growth that Enphase has reported to investors over the last two years is nothing but a sham which has lined the pockets of those at the top of the company," said Eiad Asbahi, Founder and Portfolio Manager of Prescience Point. "We believe the evidence presented in our report will result in multiple government investigations, a major accounting restatement, shareholder lawsuits and a delisting of ENPH shares from the NASDAQ."

I'm not sure if it's too late or safe to short them since they're already down 13% but that's a sensationally bad report 

 

[Kman]

Even the directors are selling https://seekingalpha.com/news/3583680-enphase-energy-director-sells-common-shares

I've taken up a $500 sell position, seems certain to go down more

Either this will pay off or I will learn a lesson

Edit > Ok well this was short lived, sold $10 down, went from trending down to trending up since 3:45pm, around when I bought in of course lol missed the move down, will watch and wait and see if there's any way to play it 

[ZigZag]

On 01/05/2020 at 16:37, ZigZag said:

This week I bought Orph at 8.2 and EVG at 9.4 today. Expect to keep the trades for a week or two. You can ridicule me next week if I’m wrong.

Just flagging EVG up again, I’ve traded the spike since then but there are definitely things happening behind the scenes as someone’s been taking a big stake, mopping up shares for sometime. 

Yesterday Dundee university website announced their latest partnership ahead of today’s RNS, which allowed some of us to get a lucky break on the cheap. Day traders have exited with their profits but more significantly the volume has been huge today; once again it smacks of some entity accumulating everything they can. One to keep an eye on.

[Kman]

I bought back my sell position when Enphase started trending down again

as long as it stays in this channel or below I will keep it, if it breaks out above I will sell

Currently 8% up on $500, but I lost 2% earlier when I bought at the end of the down move when I sold, so 6%

[Kman]

Could someone explain why when the stock market goes down, commodities get pulled down too? like gold, silver, oil

 Crypto seems to get sucked back as well (I say crypto but I only really watch Bitcoin/Ethereum) 

I heard someone say in a video that this happened in March because of a liquidity problem

Is that what's going on every time things seem to pull back at once?

 

[Martlet]

Commodity prices are driven by demand in the economy. Stock prices are driven demand in the economy. They should be correlated.  Gold is supposed to be a hedge to this, apparently the text books are wrong, its manipulated or there's something more than simple demand such as sentiment.  Everyone just gets nervous, sells assets regardless of fundamentals.  There is also the debt factor, people need $ to payback debt so want cash over assets.  

[Kman]

The market is at a very interesting point

A lot of stocks are about to fall out of, or have fallen out of strong trends up since March/April

I wonder if we're going to enter a new sideways trend now for a while 

Look at Carnival finishing at $16 exactly today to cling by its finger tips to its trend up 

[vand]

On 24/06/2020 at 15:00, Martlet said:

Commodity prices are driven by demand in the economy. Stock prices are driven demand in the economy. They should be correlated.  Gold is supposed to be a hedge to this, apparently the text books are wrong, its manipulated or there's something more than simple demand such as sentiment.  Everyone just gets nervous, sells assets regardless of fundamentals.  There is also the debt factor, people need $ to payback debt so want cash over assets.  

Yes, and  there is the "Accelerator effect" that says that due to the chain of production, the manufacturing sector (as opposed to eg services) is indicative of the rate of change in the overall economy. That is why you still often get manufacturing numbers which some people like to follow closely

Macufacturing is likened to the 2nd derivative of the current rate of growth. Therefore:

if overall growth is increasing at an increasing pace, manufacturing is in a boom

if overall growth is still increasing but at a slowing rate then manufacturing is already in recession

if overall growth is negative at an increasing pace then manufacturing is in a complete bust

if overall growth is negative but at a slowing pace then manufacturing is already in recovery

 

[ZigZag]

On 24/06/2020 at 14:16, Kman said:

Could someone explain why when the stock market goes down, commodities get pulled down too? like gold, silver, oil

 Crypto seems to get sucked back as well (I say crypto but I only really watch Bitcoin/Ethereum) 

I heard someone say in a video that this happened in March because of a liquidity problem

Is that what's going on every time things seem to pull back at once?

 

If you look at all market crashes, everything goes down in a bear phase. Funds do need to liquidate positions, so immaterial to specific commodity or stock prospects, and yes it is linked to liquidity 

Eventually though, if you look at commodity prospects, hedges such as gold and cash generative miners have bounced back the strongest, as in real purchasing terms, they will outperform traditional stocks. It’s happened this way before, no reason for it not to do so again.

Don’t get too blinded by the science in my opinion.

[Kman]

12 minutes ago, ZigZag said:

If you look at all market crashes, everything goes down in a bear phase. Funds do need to liquidate positions, so immaterial to specific commodity or stock prospects, and yes it is linked to liquidity 

Eventually though, if you look at commodity prospects, hedges such as gold and cash generative miners have bounced back the strongest, as in real purchasing terms, they will outperform traditional stocks. It’s happened this way before, no reason for it not to do so again.

Don’t get to blinded by the science in my opinion.

It's an interesting one, I've never took much notice of gold/silver etfs but in a market crash if they get sucked down too they may not be the biggest % winner but they have to be one of the safest, especially silver

I read an article against ETFs saying that physical is better because you can actually sell it at a premium above spot and with an etf you miss out on that

But it works both ways; if there was another crash this year no way would you be able to buy physical silver at $12 anywhere - you get the benefit of buying the etf without the premium and that makes up for the loss of the selling one

I wish I was more on the ball in March and loaded up on silver etfs and bitcoin when they got sucked down, but you only know what you know

 

[AuricGoldfinger]

@Kman trouble is knowing when the bottom is, i also wish i had piled into stocks & gold a bit heavier in mid March but then there is a lot to be said about holding a chunk of cash in these turbulent times. 
 

 

[Kman]

21 minutes ago, AuricGoldfinger said:

@Kman trouble is knowing when the bottom is, i also wish i had piled into stocks & gold a bit heavier in mid March but then there is a lot to be said about holding a chunk of cash in these turbulent times. 
 

 

That's where the charts come in very handy

You can see silver has been in a channel since at least 2014, unable to break out of go below

The only time a candle has closed below $14 is in March

 

And where did it rally back to, to consolidate and get over the shock of what just happened, $14

 

 

 

Assuming it's a crash as severe as the one in March, you could look at the charts for any stock and look to where they quickly recovered to 

Looking at Amazon it was 1775 it settled back to

Apple was 275

If it's a big safe company with a long future ahead of it then looking at where they recovered to after the initial shock of the crash, should there be another crash again in the near future, in my novice brain it makes sense these are safe numbers to buy around/under 

Lots more factors to consider too but just as a initial starting point to work off it makes sense to me

At the moment until I know better though I'd just stick with a safe $14 silver if it should happen again 

I'd be willing to put all my savings into $14 or under silver etf by the result of a crash

[ZigZag]

1 hour ago, Kman said:

It's an interesting one, I've never took much notice of gold/silver etfs but in a market crash if they get sucked down too they may not be the biggest % winner but they have to be one of the safest, especially silver

I read an article against ETFs saying that physical is better because you can actually sell it at a premium above spot and with an etf you miss out on that

But it works both ways; if there was another crash this year no way would you be able to buy physical silver at $12 anywhere - you get the benefit of buying the etf without the premium and that makes up for the loss of the selling one

I wish I was more on the ball in March and loaded up on silver etfs and bitcoin when they got sucked down, but you only know what you know

 

Personally I keep a very close watch on etfs if I trade them, usually I go for the leveraged ones like LSIL, however it often trades with an element of contango; so should only be relatively short term in my view. Plus they are paper and paper assets can be a risky thing to liquidate in a crash or “unforeseen event”.

Look at MF Global and realise what happens when funds run out of money, harping back to my previous post about market sell offs, you would painfully realise if one of their clients, that paper becomes instantly worthless. Funds like that can cause all stocks to crash as they liquidate.

[Kman]

I'd bet my life carnival will close up at the line 16.25

Edit> whoops forgot the candle opened inside the line so it wouldn't have been a full candle outside wherever it finished