£3000 in stock market?

[vand]

I'm starting to hedge off some of my positions here. Stocks have had a good bounce, and I think the risk/reward with the S&P @ 2950 is much worse than it was a month ago.

[Kman]

2 minutes ago, vand said:

I'm starting to hedge off some of my positions here. Stocks have had a good bounce, and I think the risk/reward with the S&P @ 2950 is much worse than it was a month ago.

That's what I said two days ago, sold Carnival and Delta, yesterday Carnival went up 15% and Delta 10% lol very rude

I don't know anything but it feels like we're slowly climbing a rollercoaster, higher it goes will just make the drop all the more spectacular 

I did just buy 6 more Shellb shares to take me to 37 total since they're 9% down today 

Every reaction seems to be an over reaction I wouldn't be surprised if Shell end the day only 1-2% down 

[MancunianStacker]

Now is a better time to buy. Looking at a 1 month chart it will probably bounce back up closer to £1,451 In a week or two. 

[KDave]

FTSE 6000 is having a hard time, some big selling today not just in Shell.

[KDave]

Have a watch of igold advisors video comparison between the 1929 crash and initial recovery V against todays market. Looks very convincing on the technical side that we are at the start of a huge historic market crash 

[ZigZag]

On 29/04/2020 at 09:01, KDave said:

Are we somewhere between 'bull trap' and 'return to normal'?

If you look around stock markets long enough, anything that mentions Covid in a positive light, eg pharma solutions, testing, cleaning, remote working abilities is somewhere around first sell off to media attention - you only have to look at stock market message boards to see that.

[KDave]

48 minutes ago, zhoutonged said:

The market will be in a down trend, selling off wave after wave until we reach despair and capitulation. Best guess this will take a couple of years.

The main difference between now and the 30s is the amount of money thats being "printed" this will make matters worse people don't seem to realise printing money destroys wealth, only a productive economy can create wealth. This economy has to be the least productive in living memory,  all the extra regulations/practices that will follow "due to COVID" will simply compound the problems.

On a brighter note, we are all in it together 😂

 

Yes and the differences between now and the 1930's is everything was paper then, it took a long time for anything to play out in the market. Now everyone has instant access via a smart phone app. Hardly anyone was invested in 1930 in terms of general population, now most people are involved in or aware of stocks and keeping an eye on it. Everything will play out much faster on the way down.

In the 30's the FED tightened from 1928, we had a similar attempt by central banks over the past few years up until last December. The deflationary pressures building up to that point before the FED reversed, and now exacerbated by the lockdowns, are having the same effect as in the past. Unless central banks print enough we are heading into deflation, I understand that enough has been printed to avoid systemic collapse, but deflation is still the primary concern (meanwhile everyone is calling for hyper inflation). Like you I think this will play out over a couple of years before CB's have deflation under control, then inflation will start to kick in as CB's over do it. Government will have to step in to provide the necessary direction for restructuring the economy following a generation of a consumer led economy, and that in turn will see inflation head into the non monetary commodities (including silver). 

[Kman]

I pulled back even further today, down to 1/3 of what I put in originally

I sold Chevron and Exxon as the market opened for 15% profit which was around $50 each

Put that profit into more shell shares

Sold Boeing at a £9 loss 

Left with just Shell and Roche now

None of this has gone to my original plan but I've had a good 3 weeks watching the market and learning and I'm £150 up  with most of my money pulled out safe ready to do whatever with depending if opportunities should develop, or at least what my naive mind perceives as opportunities 😛 

 

 

[ZigZag]

This week I bought Orph at 8.2 and EVG at 9.4 today. Expect to keep the trades for a week or two. You can ridicule me next week if I’m wrong.

[cravethatcoin]

I have had a lot of fun with the stock market the last 2 months.

I am currently up 28% and have been buying only the most effected industries for the long term.

Shell, BP, OXY, Boeing and small to mid oil companies, 1 Russian and Brazilian due to the risk of US based companies requiring a high oil price for profit.

Saw a oil company that filled for bankruptcy (WLL). Took a small $50 gamble on it as a either it's going to 0 or it is going to see a good return in the long term if it survives. I wanted to hold for the long term as with all my stocks but when it reached over 300% profit in a few days I set a stop loss which was later hit for a 275%. I know that kind of return is not the norm and it was a pump. But was happy to put that $130 profit into companies such as BP and Shell.

 

[Kman]

Listening to  Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting

 

[Kman]

He is talking about the Louisiana purchase.. well rambling really, idk what I expected but lol

Now been listening to an hour of rambling 🙈

[Kman]

The Buffet Q&A was interesting, the actual meeting wasn't worth listening to

I did learn you can just buy an index 🙈

https://www.etoro.com/discover/markets/indices

If there is at some point a crash, putting money into an index seems like a safe bet for the long term? 

All though between 2000-2010 would have been a bad decade to watch

[Kman]

I'm a bit disappointed in Roche today, they've had some very positive news, would have thought that boost shares more, but at the time of writing they're only up 1.7%

"'100 per cent accurate' antibody tests to tell millions of Britons if they have ALREADY had coronavirus 'will be available in TWO WEEKS'"

 "Roche Diagnostics has created a kit that they claim is accurate enough to be used by millions of Britons"

"Roche's antibody test for Covid-19 has been given the CE mark and has been issued Emergency Use Authorisation from the US Food and Drug Administration

"Roche expects to make more than 100 million antibody tests monthly by end of 2020"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8282929/Antibody-tests-tell-millions-coronavirus-rolled-two-weeks.html

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fda-oks-roche-coronavirus-antibody-test-2020-05-04

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/03/coronavirus-latest-updates-asia-europe.html

[ZigZag]

On 01/05/2020 at 16:37, ZigZag said:

This week I bought Orph at 8.2 and EVG at 9.4 today. Expect to keep the trades for a week or two. You can ridicule me next week if I’m wrong.

Orph using its unique USP to push RSV trials.

https://www.valuethemarkets.com/2020/05/04/open-orphan-races-ahead-with-3-5m-us-human-challenge-study-contract-orph/

Shares spiked just past 10p early a.m but it’s being traded, including by myself. They will be a long term winner in all the Covid hype as their revenue streams are not just on CV-19.

[vand]

On 30/04/2020 at 12:54, vand said:

I'm starting to hedge off some of my positions here. Stocks have had a good bounce, and I think the risk/reward with the S&P @ 2950 is much worse than it was a month ago.

I've closed my short positions. Captured a nice bit of downside, and now long-only again.

Interesting interview from this guy who expects a melt-up taking the S&P above 4000: 

 

[vand]

On 02/05/2020 at 21:58, Kman said:

Listening to  Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting

 

 

I was and still am a fan of Buffett's wisdom, but his record has been become increasingly abysmal over the years. It's ironic that as his stature has grown his ability to outperform the market has evapourated.

The original contrarian investor has now become a vehicle of the mainstream. At this point, given Berkshire's sheer size, it is almost impossible for him to outperform the market, so you have to wonder what all these people who make the annual pilgrimage to Omaha are expecting? Future outperformance, or are they just like most other investors and looking at past performance?

[Bullionaire]

3 hours ago, Kman said:

I'm a bit disappointed in Roche today, they've had some very positive news, would have thought that boost shares more, but at the time of writing they're only up 1.7%

"'100 per cent accurate' antibody tests to tell millions of Britons if they have ALREADY had coronavirus 'will be available in TWO WEEKS'"

 "Roche Diagnostics has created a kit that they claim is accurate enough to be used by millions of Britons"

"Roche's antibody test for Covid-19 has been given the CE mark and has been issued Emergency Use Authorisation from the US Food and Drug Administration

"Roche expects to make more than 100 million antibody tests monthly by end of 2020"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8282929/Antibody-tests-tell-millions-coronavirus-rolled-two-weeks.html

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fda-oks-roche-coronavirus-antibody-test-2020-05-04

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/03/coronavirus-latest-updates-asia-europe.html

Good news like that is often priced in to the share price anyway. The market doesn't wait for news to be announced before it makes it's mind up on something. 

The market will have known they were working on these tests and will have assumed that they would get them working. If news was released that the tests were rubbish, I would expect the share price to fall, rather than stay the same. 

[Kman]

3 minutes ago, Bullionaire said:

Good news like that is often priced in to the share price anyway. The market doesn't wait for news to be announced before it makes it's mind up on something. 

The market will have known they were working on these tests and will have assumed that they would get them working. If news was released that the tests were rubbish, I would expect the share price to fall, rather than stay the same. 

Yeah I guess it depends on the company, Roche seem pretty stable in general

Good news in airlines, cruises, cineworld etc seems to see them shooting up and falling back but they're very volatile in general currently

[silvernewbie]

Oil prices up!!  Cant decide what to invest in at the moment, mining doesn't seem much value, oil/utilities I am looking at such as national grid or shell

Have been burnt with AIM miners in the past so the above small caps are too risky for me.

[Cornishfarmer]

@Keithoil what is your take in what’s happening in the oil industry? Are you still doing the same as before or retired?

[RichmondStacker]

10 hours ago, silvernewbie said:

Oil prices up!!  Cant decide what to invest in at the moment, mining doesn't seem much value, oil/utilities I am looking at such as national grid or shell

Have been burnt with AIM miners in the past so the above small caps are too risky for me.

Things are looking very good for Greatland Gold, the results coming out of havieron have been great.  Newcrest may buy them out or at least their share of the mine and they still have other sites near by.

[freefall]

With the rise in the price of gold over the last year I felt I had no option but to rebalance. Not wanting to part with any physical, I sold my gold mining shares (iShares Gold Producers ETF) for a tidy profit. I bought a broad basket commodity ETF in their place with some cash to spare. 

After rebalancing here's where I'm at: 44% Gold, 35% Cash, 6% Stock index funds, 5% commodities, 4% Bitcoin, 3% Silver, 3% Platinum.

I lost a fair bit buying and shorting various stocks and indexes over the last 6-8 weeks. Some winners, more losers unfortunately. Nothing at all appeals to me right now. I'm loathed to hold such a high proportion of cash during a period of monetary inflation but it feels like the right thing to do so I'm going with my gut, taking a back seat and Ill have a look in the new year.

 

[Kman]

Nasdaq back above 9 climbing like everything is smooth sailing in the world 👀

[freefall]

Maybe that's cheap. What's anything worth when money is being conjured at this pace.