£3000 in stock market?

[KDave]

3 hours ago, lubi29 said:

Do you buying only oil shares or there is something like ETF oil to invest? Read that news $15 for barrel of texas crude as well and it looking as good opportunity.

I am buying shares in the majors, BP, Shell, Total, etc just google oil majors it gives you the list of 7. I am not trying to time the bottom I am buying now to take position in anticipation of much higher oil prices late 2020's.

They may go down further but for example shell was £23 a share 4 months ago now its £13, they have been over 50% down (sub £10 a share), now we see record low WTI and records on the ratio's (gold to oil, silver to oil, etc) the downside is limited in the majors with the exception of the usual caveats. Hopefully on shell we will see another sub £10 maybe £9 on the next dip.

USO is not a good idea apparently though I had the thought;

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4338311-betting-on-higher-oil-prices-uso-is-not-right-vehicle?ifp=0&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=if-you-re-betting-on-higher-oil-prices-uso-is-not-the-right-vehicle&utm_campaign=nl-etf-daily&utm_content=link-0

There will soon be blood in the streets, the smaller companies will provide better returns if they survive, but they are much higher risk right now compared to the majors that have assets worth more than some countries, I think many of the US fracking companies will be going bust unless bailed out and there will be unrest in the middle east and other places that rely on the oil price.

[OneBlueSummer]

Just now, KDave said:

I am buying shares in the majors, BP, Shell, Total, etc just google oil majors it gives you the list of 7. I am not trying to time the bottom I am buying now to take position in anticipation of much higher oil prices late 2020's.

They may go down further but for example shell was £23 a share 4 months ago now its £13, they have been over 50% down (sub £10 a share), now we see record low WTI and records on the ratio's (gold to oil, silver to oil, etc) the downside is limited in the majors with the exception of the usual caveats. Hopefully on shell we will see another sub £10 maybe £9 on the next dip.

USO is not a good idea apparently though I had the thought;

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4338311-betting-on-higher-oil-prices-uso-is-not-right-vehicle?ifp=0&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=if-you-re-betting-on-higher-oil-prices-uso-is-not-the-right-vehicle&utm_campaign=nl-etf-daily&utm_content=link-0

There will soon be blood in the streets, the smaller companies will provide better returns if they survive, but they are much higher risk right now compared to the majors that have assets worth more than some countries, I think many of the US fracking companies will be going bust unless bailed out and there will be unrest in the middle east and other places that rely on the oil price.

Why aren't you buying tankers?

[vand]

Oil majors are a classic contrarian buy right now.

World Oil usage is still growing and and downturn right now is going to be a blip.

However it is one of those markets where the prices are set at the edges. When the economy finally recovers the current destruction of productive capacity will eventually lead to much higher oil prices.

 

[KDave]

18 hours ago, OneBlueSummer said:

Why aren't you buying tankers?

I don't know much about shipping, or what effect the low oil prices will have on shipping longer term, I would imagine with lower supply that will result from zero new wells being opened for the first time in a long time, will result in less demand for tankers for now, perhaps they will follow oil higher but with a lag? They might be a good investment, for picking a company to invest in it would depend for me on company size and exposure to leverage primarily concerns and whether they will be able to weather the short term to be around to make gains in the long.

Some of the tanking shares do look extraordinarily cheap, I will have a look into it over the weekend thank you.   

[Kman]

20 hours ago, KDave said:

USO is not a good idea apparently though I had the thought;

I was looking into USO but I couldn't workout what the fees would be for an ETF, apparently high? couldn't seem to find a definitive answer 

[Cornishfarmer]

Just an update..... after putting in £2k and it dropping everyday for 10 days then hit the current bottom. Then the bounce and made it up to £2100 before pulling back again to £1900.      Now thinking of opening a s and s isa.     Any tips for gold mining on ftse?    Think they should do ok because of the fuel price and should be a commodity that will the helped rather that effected by the downturn 

advice please

[vand]

re: USO and other oil ETFs.. very difficult to make a long term profit on these because the contango (ie storage cost) has to be unwound in every new oil contract. 

Better to stick with buying oil companies if you want to play for long term oil exposure.

[Kman]

3 hours ago, vand said:

re: USO and other oil ETFs.. very difficult to make a long term profit on these because the contango (ie storage cost) has to be unwound in every new oil contract. 

Better to stick with buying oil companies if you want to play for long term oil exposure.

Or maybe some of the pipeline companies, they're all down 50%

Enterprise Products Partners L.P. has a dividend of 11%

No idea if they're worth looking into let alone buying shares 

 

[Kman]

So what do we think will happen with share prices when Q1 results are announced?

[KDave]

My initial thought is to say it depends which sector, but honestly its all guess work over the short term, nothing seems to correlate. I think the market is disconnected from the short term economic realities (whatever those turn out to be) and is focusing on monetary policy. Supermarkets should have done well I bet their Q1 numbers are really good, but will they do well in a few years time if the price inflation the market is predicting comes to pass - no they won't unless wages keep up (which they won't). Supermarket shares might fall then. Who knows 

I mean look at oil - WTI went negative and the market bought oil majors pushing the price up. They are looking long term, perhaps an unfair comparison due to the long cycle nature of oil majors, but still. They are not looking at Q1 or even 2020 numbers they are looking further out. 

Long term for stocks I think ultimately it depends on where monetary policy to inflate ends up, that is the markets main focus - monetary inflation. I think that is wrong, that the deflationary pressures are larger than people realise, I don't think even the central banks can see it or they would be printing more. I am clearly out numbered 

[Martlet]

3 hours ago, Kman said:

So what do we think will happen with share prices when Q1 results are announced?

In theory its priced in.  In practice, maybe markets think its worse than expected and dump further, or perhaps think they over discounted and have a big rise. 

Sorry thats not so helpful, thats irrational markets for you. 

[KDave]

This is a very well researched article, well worth a read. The great bull trap of 2020.

https://www.tradersmagazine.com/departments/equities/the-great-bull-trap-of-2020/

[Kman]

@KDavegood article

I'm starting to feel like this is the time for trading not investing

Cineworld just jumped 20% today.. crazy how much that's been up and down, if you took the right buy/sell positions with them as they yoyo you would be doing very well 

I just sold the last of my Cruise shares, made 27.5% on them total which only = £80 because I didn't put much money in them to begin with

I did that because I'm going to pull back now,  I was expecting to buy some shares, watch them drop, buy more to average it out rather than try and time the bottom but things aren't dropping.. just doesn't correlate with what's going on in the world

I will leave what I have in Shell and I will leave what I have in Roche (ended up buying that the day I posted here) because I want to gamble with them over the next few months

Otherwise I think I'm just going to put a little bit of money in here and there and trade and gamble until prices drop and long term investing actually looked attractive 

 

 

[vand]

 

17 hours ago, KDave said:

This is a very well researched article, well worth a read. The great bull trap of 2020.

https://www.tradersmagazine.com/departments/equities/the-great-bull-trap-of-2020/

 

Whenever the market takes a beating you have people trying to compare it to 1929 instead of the 20-30 other times it didn't turn out like 1929. This time will prove no different.

The biggest counter-argument to the uber-bear case is that this crash was not precipitated by reaching the end of the natural business cycle, therefore we don't know how much higher the stock market might have gone, and all that's happening is that we're clawing back to where the market wanted to go to.

Better to compare current market action to 1907 or 1987 as just a couple of examples.

[KDave]

1 hour ago, Kman said:

@KDavegood article

I'm starting to feel like this is the time for trading not investing

Cineworld just jumped 20% today.. crazy how much that's been up and down, if you took the right buy/sell positions with them as they yoyo you would be doing very well 

I just sold the last of my Cruise shares, made 27.5% on them total which only = £80 because I didn't put much money in them to begin with

I did that because I'm going to pull back now,  I was expecting to buy some shares, watch them drop, buy more to average it out rather than try and time the bottom but things aren't dropping.. just doesn't correlate with what's going on in the world

I will leave what I have in Shell and I will leave what I have in Roche (ended up buying that the day I posted here) because I want to gamble with them over the next few months

Otherwise I think I'm just going to put a little bit of money in here and there and trade and gamble until prices drop and long term investing actually looked attractive 

 

 

If you want to trade the market go for it, just be careful it doesn't become an expensive hobby  a lot of talk about trading and gambling money in this post mate! I am buying with the view over the next decade in Oil and commodities I am not buying certain sectors that I don't think will do well - but that doesn't mean I will do well of course, I could be wrong and due to the nature of the market these days many people buy trackers which means everything could go down together regardless. 

Your gut might be right, if we are at the start of a multi-year bear market then now is not the time to buy and hold. Personally I think we are looking at a cycle change and inflation from printing will find its way into industrial commodities and the conditions will be anathema to consumer related sectors. We will see what happens. 

[Kman]

29 minutes ago, KDave said:

 I am buying with the view over the next decade in Oil and commodities 

I don't know if this is an intelligent thought or not but I do like big oil because they're down 50% still, well Shell is anyway, upon checking Chevron and Exxon have rebounded more 

That seems like the sort of crash you would expect with whats going though 50%+, not the general down 10%

How can a company like Starbucks be at the same price now as they were last year

Oh don't worry about the gambling aspect, I'm a cry and take my ball home type of person, as soon as I lose £50 I will be sour and not want to do it anymore 😛  

I used to love playing online poker, I did it very successfully for years on Ladbrokes, I won a lot of $10 rebuy tournaments but as soon as ladbrokes merged with another poker site and the tournaments went from taking 5 hours to win to 10 hours and the standard of players dropped and it became more luck than anything I just walked away from it completely, I hate losing too much 

 

 

 

[Xander]

46 minutes ago, Kman said:

I don't know if this is an intelligent thought or not but I do like big oil because they're down 50% still, well Shell is anyway, upon checking Chevron and Exxon have rebounded more 

That seems like the sort of crash you would expect with whats going though 50%+, not the general down 10%

How can a company like Starbucks be at the same price now as they were last year

Oh don't worry about the gambling aspect, I'm a cry and take my ball home type of person, as soon as I lose £50 I will be sour and not want to do it anymore 😛  

I used to love playing online poker, I did it very successfully for years on Ladbrokes, I won a lot of $10 rebuy tournaments but as soon as ladbrokes merged with another poker site and the tournaments went from taking 5 hours to win to 10 hours and the standard of players dropped and it became more luck than anything I just walked away from it completely, I hate losing too much 

 

 

 

OilWorldWide. eToro is recommending $2,000 minimum investment. 

[KDave]

I have been convinced by some macro work I have seen, but while I am bullish oil for the next decade someone I follow and respect is extremely bearish on the macro and thinks this is the turn for oil as we move towards green energy (all that stuff about electric by 2040 or whatever, it is part of the bigger plan that has started now he thinks - signals like the Rothchilds moving out of Exxon signal to him that Oil is done). Basically the opposite of what I think, and this kind of thinking was around in 2015 when we were "drowning in oil". The problem is I can't work out which one of us is the contrarian, is buying oils at the lows contrarian (given how obvious it seems) or is selling and calling for its end? (given how daft that seems). I am also not used to being bullish on something usually I am permabear on everything 

I think inflation will move into the commodities this cycle as oppose to financial assets like last time, due to the nature of where the government will spend. Where government spends in turn will increase demand for oil. If I am wrong I am hoping to near enough make my money back over the decade in dividends but we will see.  

[Xander]

11 minutes ago, KDave said:

I have been convinced by some macro work I have seen, but while I am bullish oil for the next decade someone I follow and respect is extremely bearish on the macro and thinks this is the turn for oil as we move towards green energy (all that stuff about electric by 2040 or whatever, it is part of the bigger plan that has started now he thinks - signals like the Rothchilds moving out of Exxon signal to him that Oil is done). Basically the opposite of what I think, and this kind of thinking was around in 2015 when we were "drowning in oil". The problem is I can't work out which one of us is the contrarian, is buying oils at the lows contrarian (given how obvious it seems) or is selling and calling for its end? (given how daft that seems). I am also not used to being bullish on something usually I am permabear on everything 

I think inflation will move into the commodities this cycle as oppose to financial assets like last time, due to the nature of where the government will spend. Where government spends in turn will increase demand for oil. If I am wrong I am hoping to near enough make my money back over the decade in dividends but we will see.  

From $113 a barrel in 2014 to were it is now surely it can only go up.

[Martlet]

1 hour ago, KDave said:

I have been convinced by some macro work I have seen, but while I am bullish oil for the next decade someone I follow and respect is extremely bearish on the macro and thinks this is the turn for oil as we move towards green energy (all that stuff about electric by 2040 or whatever, it is part of the bigger plan that has started now he thinks - signals like the Rothchilds moving out of Exxon signal to him that Oil is done). Basically the opposite of what I think, and this kind of thinking was around in 2015 when we were "drowning in oil". The problem is I can't work out which one of us is the contrarian, is buying oils at the lows contrarian (given how obvious it seems) or is selling and calling for its end? (given how daft that seems). I am also not used to being bullish on something usually I am permabear on everything 

If we did indeed move to all electric vehicles by there's still 20 years of oil consumption. We wont move to all electric by then, thats a target for electric only sales (subject to change).  And then there air and sea transport where electric is more problematic.  Short version, oil has a long future ahead of it yet. 

[Kman]

@KDave Inspired me to make a green energy watchlist

Jesus if you put some money into green energy companies a month ago you would be doing ok 

[Cornishfarmer]

I think shell/bp are in a great place when it comes to renewables.    They have the money and power so when they decide to go all in they will have the money to do so. Batteries at the moment don’t have the reserve to take the world forward but I’m darn sure then they do the big oils will have bought the companies or produced themselves 

[AuricGoldfinger]

@Cornishfarmer i agree!

[KDave]

1 hour ago, Cornishfarmer said:

I think shell/bp are in a great place when it comes to renewables.    They have the money and power so when they decide to go all in they will have the money to do so. Batteries at the moment don’t have the reserve to take the world forward but I’m darn sure then they do the big oils will have bought the companies or produced themselves 

Yes you are correct on the first point, I am not sure regarding batteries. I listened to BP's first quarter webcast earlier and the CEO was using some rather ambitious language around this renewable push.

"On the 12th of February we talked about our new purpose to reimagine energy for people and our planet. We shared our new ambition to be net zero by 2050 or sooner, and to help the world get to net zero, and we set out plans for reinventing BP, to be more focused and to be more integrated. We talked about being leaner, faster moving, lower carbon. These are all qualities we need in the crisis today, as well as the qualities we need when we come out the other side of it. I would like to think we will be helping society build back to be more resilient and sustainable. And to do that we have to be a strong company financially, and one that brings value over the long term for our investors...." 

I am more interested in the oil to be honest. Trying to be net zero lower carbon when your primary commodity is a hydro carbon who do they think they are kidding. 

[KDave]

Are we somewhere between 'bull trap' and 'return to normal'?