Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only

[bobski]

Check Matt Gaetz get the truth out of Lloyd Austin, in the video clip

[Gruff]

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/south-koreas-central-bank-says-may-buy-gold-mid-long-term

[Chronos]

FOMC Preview And How To Trade It: All Eyes On Powell's Presser For A Dovish Sighting:

https://archive.is/SUA2F

America’s Dollar Power Is Shrinking:

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2024/05/no_author/americas-dollar-power-is-shrinking/

 

Edited May 1 by Chronos

[Gruff]

5 minutes ago, Chronos said:

FOMC Preview And How To Trade It: All Eyes On Powell's Presser For A Dovish Sighting:

https://archive.is/SUA2F

This weeks FOMC is going to be big. I fear more of the same BS though, try to kick the can down the road until after the elections in November

[Petra]

£1835.44 .ll if you can find a deal, get it bought🤔🔥

[Bars]

9 hours ago, MrStacker said:

Calm before the storm then back to the yoyo effect. It is what it is but I think sometimes it is human nature for some stackers to feel reluctant during the high periods. Buy now or cry later! 💯

I like that Buy Now Cry Later - sounds more ethical than Buy Now Pay Later

[Gruff]

[Chronos]

Meanwhile, a competitor of gold and "safe asset" Bitcoin is crashing: -9%

[Dom]

2 minutes ago, Chronos said:

Meanwhile, a competitor of gold and "safe asset" Bitcoin is crashing: -9%

Unicorn farts tend to dissipate into nothing eventually 

[FriedrichVonHayek]

1 hour ago, Gruff said:

If that's anything like our vending machines at work I wouldn't be taking a risk putting cash into that thing.

Its bad enough when a bag of 95p crisps won't drop.

[Gruff]

14 minutes ago, FriedrichVonHayek said:

If that's anything like our vending machines at work I wouldn't be taking a risk putting cash into that thing.

Its bad enough when a bag of 95p crisps won't drop.

100% agree, I'm not keen on lining up to buy gold from a vending machine, especially in this current climate. I think it is more an advert for gold as a hedge against the current and coming turmoil

[BLOOMMAN101]

[silversky]

4 hours ago, bobski said:

Check Matt Gaetz get the truth out of Lloyd Austin, in the video clip

I'm more interested in how a floating metal platform could cost 320,000,000 USD?  If you look at the pictures it boggles the mind.  Will it have cranes and boats and special vehicles for all that money?  Even with a whole bunch of vehicles, it must surely be a false accounting scheme to lose a vast black hole debt-bomb.

If the congress were anything other than a uniparty, they would expose this as a false accounting scheme.  But the fact is that they all want to lose the debt bombs no matter who's turn it is.  Clearing them out keeps the system going, justifying new rounds of economic stimulus in the form of government procurement.  What better way than to pretend that you gave something valuable away?  All the old gear currently being shipped to Ukraine is another example.  Much of it would end up in landfill at some point in the not too distant future, so best written down as a loss to the taxpayer, and new borrowing initiated to replace it.  Bonus is that should Ukraine survive, they will pay the loan back for 250 years.  Win win for the GAE.

War is such a scam.  Third parties use them to clear up their accounts and write off debt secrets in plain sight.  And no one ever bothers to notice....

[BLOOMMAN101]

triple bottom   lol

[Bratnia]

US debt has expanded at around a 6% yearly rate since the end of the Civil War (1865). Will likely have risen to 40 trillion by 2030, 75 trillion by 2040. If that costs 4%/year to service (Treasury interest rates) then so also does the cost in $ terms of servicing that debt rise. But similarly the Dow stock index has risen at a similar rate. 6% price appreciation, 4% dividends type historic total returns (10%/year total return). Inflation has lagged that increase rate as its slowed by productivity/technology, cheaper food when one man and a machine can quickly harvest a entire field etc. All perfectly normal and to be expected. As a backstop the US aligns the price of gold to the dollar, has massive amounts of leverage, 50x leverage by the $42.222/ounce price the Treasury lends gold to the Fed, 120x leverage via paper-gold (Futures/Options) - that is can use to buy/sell gold into alignment with the dollar. Some may think that will blow up/fail or be replaced however the realities are that it can and likely will persist as-is for many decades to come. As will the tendency for the price of gold (and Dow/stocks) in dollars tend to continue to broadly rise.

Edited May 1 by Bratnia

[KRO]

Another update from Ross Norman, I'm going right off Ross😀

 

ROSS NORMAN : Can this gold bull run be trusted ? Spoiler alert : No

Cast your mind back to 2009 and you might recollect the cash-for-gold craze where people where hunting out their old jewellery to sell it to pawnbrokers as gold hit successive all time highs. 

Perhaps you also remember the Cash4Gold advert at the Super Bowl just a couple of years before the then all time high of $1920 in 2011? This had followed a decade where gold prices had risen by double digits year-on-year from $260/ounce – a gain of 640% over the period. Was the advert an act of hubris or uhh- ohh moment ? Maybe, but gold bugs are still dining out on that epic run. 

And it has relevance today.

The rally that actually started back in 1999 and it had deep roots. There was a collection of bullish drivers that changed the whole dynamic of the gold market and it was sufficient in size to tip the market out of being price elastic – its default mode. Typically price strength was met by significant declines in jewellery and coin sales, while scrap came into the market and miners sold forward into price strength … so prices reverted to the mean. Equally when gold prices were cheap, bargain hunters filled their boots and the market corrected higher. Importantly, the thinking was so entrenched in peoples expectations that it fed group-think or a self-fuelling feedback loop.  

And then things changed.

The central bank gold sales under the Washington Accord started to slow (before they turned buyers), across Europe tax at 20% was removed from investment gold in Jan 2000, the Chinese market was liberated in 2003 with individuals allowed at last buy gold, in 2004 the gold ETF was born, forging a powerful conduit between institutional investors and the gold market that had not otherwise existed … and so on. You get the picture. So gold went “inelastic” for a decade with price strength begetting price strength … the feedback loop was going the other way. And then it all arguably ended with the cash for gold blow-out before the market fell, exhausted, into another decade slump. 

 

And this is the key point – for gold to sustain a run of this sort, buyers need total belief. Its one mode or the other. And around the globe we certainly do not have consensus just now. European and US bullion dealers are awash with coins and bars that investors are selling back, jewellery sales in the Middle East and India are lacklustre … it is only really in China that they see things differently. Meanwhile mints around the world are reporting declines of between 80% and 95% year on year. This slump in physical offtake is deeply damaging for the bullion infrastructure that we all rely on. 

Of course you could also add to Chinese demand the strong central bank buying with purchases running at double the run rate of the last ten years at over 1000 tonnes per annum. As an aside – you will see some interesting stories on MetalsDaily.com today about several central banks repatriating their gold from the US – so for sure the de-dollarisation story is gripping them. 

I am just not persuaded that these 2 drivers are sufficient to maintain this run in gold alone – and I am quite aware that I am an outlier in that almost every bank analyst is now forecasting massive gains for gold from here. 

Central banks are more nuanced these days and they will reduce their acquisitions in the face of price strength as we have already seen. Further, much of the Chinese buying from early March 2024 when gold was at $2050 is speculative in nature on SHFE – it is vulnerable and as we are seeing just now, its in reverse. 

Currently gold is ignoring many short term bearish signals – higher-for-longer, dollar strength, US treasuries near 17 year highs and relative calm on the geopolitical front. It needs a reset. 

Gold lacks global conviction and consensus. Maybe this is its second cash-for-gold moment ?

By rights gold needs to re-engage with its core physical buyers, who by my estimation are about $100 to $150 south of the current levels. At those prices investors in the West, and jewellery demand in the East will reawaken and the market will be better balanced. 

 

[modofantasma]

[katyc]

Just rocketed up to £1859?

What's occurin'?

[katyc]

(And down again)

[Chronos]

10 minutes ago, katyc said:

Just rocketed up to £1859?

What's occurin'?

Gold testing the engines on the rocket, that will take it to the Moon.

[James32]

12 minutes ago, katyc said:

Just rocketed up to £1859?

What's occurin'?

Something to do with @HerefordBullyun

£1848

[Upsidedown]

13 minutes ago, katyc said:

(And down again)

 

[HerefordBullyun]

5 minutes ago, James32 said:

Something to do with @HerefordBullyun

£1848

Oho l! Irony coming from the largest hoover in the forum... 

Have you told @katyc your forum wife youve run off into the sunset with your new wife aldibranflakes?

Anyway when moon and wen divorce papers?

Edited May 1 by HerefordBullyun

[9x883]

Creeping up again🥳

£1848

[Chronos]

If Treasury Bonds Hit 5%, You're Gonna See Some Serious Sh*t:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/if-treasury-bonds-hit-5-youre-gonna-see-some-serious-sht