Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only

[ant1882]

31 minutes ago, Petra said:

Today in one of the local pawn shops 1g gold bar … £85, full sovereign… £500🤔😮at least there’s no postage 😮😮🤔

Yeah £545 now for a full sovereign at Ramsdens.

[SidS]

3 minutes ago, ant1882 said:

Yeah £545 now for a full sovereign at Ramsdens.

Shield sov yeah, St. George ... nah. Pass.

[ant1882]

1 minute ago, SidS said:

Shield sov yeah, St. George ... nah. Pass.

Indeed, got a proof sov for said price today as they didn't value it any different!

[Bratnia]

10 hours ago, Agaupl said:

Who knew 🤷‍♂️

Same for house, art ...etc. Even used to be the same for stocks in days of postal trades the broker often charged £100 (in back-then money) per trade, and the market maker would often widen bid/ask spreads to 10% or more levels. Internet/faster trading has facilitated tighter spreads/lower costs, but where more often you don't actually own the shares, the broker has them registered in their name.

The indicated 10% round trip trade was 'one dealer' i.e. the more extreme case. Here's another example snapped during market trading hours

 

A 3.3% instant round trip spread (buy and immediately sell back again)
1.47% above spot purchase spread
-1.77% below spot sell-back spread

and that's for a single coin, trade 10+ at a time and you'll often get a even better/tighter spread. Even with tighter stock trading costs to buy and immediately sell back £2000 of shares might cost two lots of £10 in brokers fees and perhaps a 0.5% market makers spread, £30 in total, 1.5%. And if held for a year when total returns are 5%, inflation is 5%, 0% real gain, you might be charged 20% tax on the £100 'gain' you made, whilst the stock fund manager might also take another 0.25% in fees.

[Bratnia]

19 hours ago, Gruff said:

Was is this thread talking about smuggling gold earlier? 

All or nothing risk play. Better not to try conveying physical gold across international borders, its fungible. So OK you might have to bear a 10% hit to sell, electronic transfer the sale proceeds and re-purchase gold at the desired destination, but at least that's more certain than a maybe 100%, maybe 0%.

If for whatever reason selling domestically isn't a option, perhaps becomes prohibited, then posting multiple small amounts separately is less inclined to potentially hit a 100% loss.

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

4 hours ago, 9x883 said:

@silversky where's gold heading over the next month?

There's a fair bit of resistance above the current level and towards $2480 but every new nominal ATH is a new resistance point and gold has been smashing resistance for fun lately

The race is between a retrace to the low $2300s and $2500, with $2500 being base camp towards $2800

I like being fearful of $2800 rather than wishing for it. As is usually the case the thing I don't want to happen appears the most likely so $2800 it is

I keep saying if we hit those levels over the summer months then gold is going to airmail peasants like me. It's terrible for the ordinary man but that seems to be the way of things this century. Those who bought fractional at lowish spot and low premiums could be laughing this time next year

 

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

2 hours ago, katyc said:

No apocalypse. It'll just be a viral Tik Tok that does it. Gold and Silver will become the new Pokemon with spoilt kids wanting every coin.

(A girl can dream, right?)

Small sample but I see this happening. I show my silver to folks and they want the random movie and cultural tat rather than the high quality germania or Perth mint stuff

They basically force me to sell it to them, Donald Trump, Star Wars, Buffalos, cowboy rounds, Komsco stuff Una and her retarded lion who really should have eaten her by now. I get the feeling if i didnt allow them to buy Ganesha stackers they would have just nicked them instead 🤣

Crickets on britannias, kooks, germania, ASEs, the uneducated in metals want high premium Pokemons 

@treetop1280 is going to make us look like fools with his Star Wars collection, the ones from decent mints anyway not so much RM stuff 😟

[Bratnia]

5 minutes ago, HonestMoneyGoldSilver said:

There's a fair bit of resistance above the current level and towards $2480 but every new nominal ATH is a new resistance point and gold has been smashing resistance for fun lately

The race is between a retrace to the low $2300s and $2500, with $2500 being base camp towards $2800

I like being fearful of $2800 rather than wishing for it. As is usually the case the thing I don't want to happen appears the most likely so $2800 it is

I keep saying if we hit those levels over the summer months then gold is going to airmail peasants like me. It's terrible for the ordinary man but that seems to be the way of things this century. Those who bought fractional at lowish spot and low premiums could be laughing this time next year

Just accept/take what's given. US data and 2021 stocks up +25%, gold down -4%, rebalancing to 50/50 had you selling some stocks to buy more ounces of gold. 2022 stocks down -20%, gold down -1% ... selling some gold to buy more stocks. 2023 stocks +26%, gold +13% ... selling some stocks to buy more ounces of gold. Helps average-out both stocks and gold, and with averaging in and out in general over many years ... you're more inclined to achieve the broad overall average outcome that is good-enough.

[Go65]

GBPUSD high in 2021 was $1.42

GBPUSD high in 2022 was $1.35

GBPUSD high in 2023 was $1.31

If spot is  $2400

UK gold price today would be 

2021 exchange rate £1690

2022 exchange rate £1777

2023 exchange rate £1832

Besides all the geo stuff for us it’s all about the exchange rate!

In normal times the strength of the dollar reduced dollar cost of gold.

Where do we think the exchange rate is going from here?

A weaker sterling seems possible if we reduce rates.

 

 

[Bratnia]

Some retired (drawdown) investors use a 'safe withdrawal rate' (SWR) method of drawing a income from the total return of their portfolio. With SWR you draw a percentage amount of the total portfolio at the start, say 1.5% SWR, and thereafter each year you increase that £££ amount by inflation as the amount drawn as income in subsequent years, so a nice inflation adjusted yearly income. Other investors just hold stocks and spend the dividends, but where the dividend value is volatile, might in some years halve down, later double up .. etc. is more inconsistent. In the chart below I compare the final portfolio value after 30 years for all years since 1950, where one just spends the dividends, so FT All Share price only stock index with 0% SWR, and compare that to 50/50 stock/gold with a 1.5% SWR, so as though the gold half had provided a 3% net dividend via (usually tax efficient) capital gains. Dividends tend to be treated as income and taxed accordingly, so a 4% historic average dividend might have provided a 3% net dividend after a average 25% taxation rate.

For the statistically minded 50/50 stock/gold provided the better risk-adjusted reward, had a lower standard deviation/better Sharpe Ratio. Also the income was more diversified, sourced from both stock dividends and SWR, was inclined to be less variable. Broadly the rewards were similar, better for stocks if you use a 'average' measure, better for stock/gold if you use a 'median' measure. In a small number of cases stocks were much better, had a maximum of 5.635 i.e. you ended with over five times more inflation adjusted portfolio value than at the start after 30 years, but is more a case of a lucky-few, who started at a time when stocks were very low/cheap.

If you own your own home, and also retire with a state pension that might be considered as a form of 'bonds', and alongside those hold a 50/50 stock/gold asset allocation where around half of the income that provides is sourced from stock dividends, and half from SWR, then you have considerably broad overall exposure to multiple assets, currencies and sources of income. Where the average outcome is generally good-enough. To better align with that average you might average-in and average-out rather than lumping all-in/all-out at single points in time. As does rebalancing 50/50 stock/gold serve as a form of averaging-out of both stocks and gold.

Fundamentally with the right style/asset allocation you can spend many years in a "don't worry, be happy" lifestyle/mindset. So what if gold or stocks rise or fall a lot. Just keep plugging away with averaging in/out and there's a good chance you'll be OK/do-well.

[Bratnia]

Just to add that I am a private/amateur investor with no affiliations. Just outlining basically my own investment approach, and where personally I prefer US stocks over UK FT All share stocks, as that has a third in UK £ home value, a third in US$ stocks, a third in global currency/commodity (gold). Income sourced via imputed rent, dividends, SWR (that in a number of years will be further supplemented with pension income).

[katyc]

With all this intelligent technical and fundamental talk going on, I thought I should contribute: 

D'yah like my new mug? 😬

Edited April 20 by katyc

[Earthmetal]

3 hours ago, Darr3nG said:

Silver?

I'm not postitive, but I am about 92.5% sure I mean currency.

3 hours ago, ant1882 said:

Yeah £545 now for a full sovereign at Ramsdens.

I'm not surprised, his fish & chips have always been over-priced.

[Petra]

3 hours ago, ant1882 said:

Yeah £545 now for a full sovereign at Ramsdens.

Try selling one to em!🤔😕🌧️

1 hour ago, katyc said:

With all this intelligent technical and fundamental talk going on, I thought I should contribute: 

D'yah like my new mug? 😬

Looks great! Well done😮🧐

[Bratnia]

1 hour ago, katyc said:

D'yah like my new mug? 😬

To me that's too anonymity cropped/blurred to be able to comment. Do they have blue hair? !!

[Roy]

28 minutes ago, Earthmetal said:

I'm not surprised, his fish & chips have always been over-priced.

I took the family to Harry Ramsden's on Bournemouth seafront. s****. Never again.

Gold price unchanged 😉

[Chronos]

Why Is Gold Rising Now, Where Is It Headed Tomorrow?:

https://vongreyerz.gold/why-is-gold-rising-now-where-is-it-headed-tomorrow

[kimchi]

25 minutes ago, Roy said:

I took the family to Harry Ramsden's on Bournemouth seafront. s****. Never again.

Gold price unchanged 😉

They were bought out years ago, even closed the original one near Leeds (Ilkley - ?)

[Earthmetal]

41 minutes ago, Roy said:

I took the family to Harry Ramsden's on Bournemouth seafront. s****. Never again.

Yes, it is a bit. What about Ramsden's though?

[Bratnia]

1 hour ago, Chronos said:

Why Is Gold Rising Now, Where Is It Headed Tomorrow?:

https://vongreyerz.gold/why-is-gold-rising-now-where-is-it-headed-tomorrow

What's inflation? If you keep around equal value measures of stocks and gold as the 'currency' in your (e)wallet then  buying stuff (consumption goods/products/services) have historically declined at over a -4% rate

Yes you have the bother that you have to convert that 'currency' (stock and/or gold) into Pounds in order to make a transaction, but a credit card can in-fill those days before the T+2 typical stock/gold sale time completes.

Oh, I see 'inflation' is the rate at which keeping Pound currency in your wallet is inclined to lose purchase power over time. Surely you'd have to be a masochist to do that, Pounds are only for money you intend to spend very soon. Cash deposits/savings accounts aren't much better, they might pay a interest that compares to 'inflation', but then the state wants to tax those 'gains' !!!

Be a wise shopper, spend using your credit card and then at the end of the month when that bill is due compare to see whether converting gold or stocks is the better choice for paying off that bill.

[Thelonerangershorse]

3 hours ago, katyc said:

With all this intelligent technical and fundamental talk going on, I thought I should contribute: 

D'yah like my new mug? 😬

FTFY

[Brit2023]

2 hours ago, Roy said:

I took the family to Harry Ramsden's on Bournemouth seafront. s****. Never again.

 😉

Why are they still there?

[Chronos]

If this is correct, we just by chance dodged the WWIII (I hope it is not):

 

Edited April 20 by Chronos

[9x883]

Nonsense. If I didn't hear about it on YouTube, it's not real😅

Gold currently £1935

Buy the dip before Sunday night📈

[Petra]

21 minutes ago, Chronos said:

If this is correct, we just by chance dodged the WWIII (I hope it is not):

 

🤔ooooh …. a very high source😮🤣🤣