Gold high spot price

[KDave]

There will be counter trend action to this rise, £200 in two months will not go unanswered - for every up squiggle there is a down squiggle and this down squiggle should be pretty good. 

We make $1500 first though so I am told, but who knows! 

[sovereignsteve]

57 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

this is exactly why I choose to take @vand 's

'you must hold this' with a pinch of salt. it's

great that vand still has over 50 years left.

 

HH

i see people selling quite a bit of gold now, they have been waiting for a good opportunity to sell at a reasonable profit. some people do not have the time to wait for even a few more years, let alone 50. everyones situation is different.

[AuricGoldfinger]

£1222 now. This is getting interesting!

[vand]

I deliberately used "50yrs" to make the point that you should have patience to wait for the assets you buy to bear fruit. It doesn't happen overnight.. macro cycles take years to play out, sometimes decades. But let me flip the argument around: Why not hold for 50 years? After all, Warren Buffett's famously favourite holding period is "forever". Gold has climbed £200 in the last 2 months, but the fundamentals have not changed in that time at all. 

[Goldmick]

Go gold go 

[vand]

Some timeless wisdom from Old Turkey:

 

Old Turkey would **** his head to one side, contemplate his fellow customer with a
fatherly smile, and finally he would say very impressively, “You know, it’s a bull
market!”

Time and again I heard him say, “Well, this is a bull market, you know!” as though he
were giving to you a priceless talisman wrapped up in a million-dollar accident insurance
policy. And of course I did not get his meaning.

One day a fellow named Elmer Harwood rushed into the office, wrote out an order and
gave it to the clerk. Then he rushed over to where Mr. Partridge was listening politely to
John Fanning’s story of the time he overheard Keene give an order to one of his brokers
and all that John made was a measly three points on a hundred shares and of course the
stock had to go up twenty-four points in three days right after John sold out. It was at
least the fourth time that John had told him that tale of woe, but old Turkey was smiling
as sympathetically as if it was the first time he heard it.

Well, Elmer made for the old man and, without a word of apology to John Fanning, told
Turkey, “Mr. Partridge, I have just sold my Climax Motors. My people say the market is
entitled to a reaction and that I’ll be able to buy it back cheaper. So you’d better do
likewise. That is, if you’ve still got yours.”

Elmer looked suspiciously at the man to whom he had given the original tip to buy. The
amateur, or gratuitous, tipster always thinks he owns the receiver of his tip body and
soul, even before he knows how the tip is going to turn out.

“Yes, Mr. Harwood, I still have it. Of course!” said Turkey gratefully. It was nice of
Elmer to think of the old chap. “Well, now is the time to take your profit and get in again
on the next dip,” said Elmer, as if he had just made out the deposit slip for the old man.
Failing to perceive enthusiastic gratitude in the beneficiary’s face Elmer went on: “I have
just sold every share I owned!”

From his voice and manner you would have conservatively estimated it at ten thousand
shares. But Mr. Partridge shook his head regretfully and whined, “No! No! I can’t do
that!”

“What?” yelled Elmer.
 

“I simply can’t!” said Mr. Partridge. He was in great trouble.

“Didn’t I give you the tip to buy it?”

“You did, Mr. Harwood, and I am very grateful to you. Indeed, I am, sir. But ”

“Hold on! Let me talk! And didn’t that stock go op seven points in ten days? Didn’t it?”
“It did, and I am much obliged to you, my dear boy. But I couldn’t think of selling that
stock.”

“You couldn’t?” asked Elmer, beginning to look doubtful himself. It is a habit with most
tip givers to be tip takers.

“No, I couldn’t.”

“Why not?” And Elmer drew nearer.

“Why, this is a bull market!” The old fellow said it as though he had given a long and
detailed explanation.

“That’s all right,” said Elmer, looking angry because of his disappointment. “I know this
is a bull market as well as you do. But you’d better slip them that stock of yours and buy
it back on the reaction. You might as well reduce the cost to yourself.”

“My dear boy,” said old Partridge, in great distress “my dear boy, if I sold that stock now
I’d lose my position; and then where would I be?”

 

 

And right here let me say one thing: After spending many
years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of
dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that
made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that?
My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the
market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and
early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right
at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks
when prices were at the very level, which should show the
greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine --
that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be
right and sit tight are uncommon.

 

[Abyss]

1 hour ago, vand said:

 Why not hold for 50 years?

You should always have proportion of your total net worth in physical gold that holding onto forever and all things being equal (no SHTF) passed down the line as inheritance/used in retirement. The percentage should increase/decrease depending on the global economic circumstances and where in the world you reside and what currency using for trade. People live in Argentina / Turkey / Venezuela that had physical Gold retained their purchasing power when turmoil engulfed their countries. Spot Gold were to trade at  $1540 and GBP/USD 1.18 then personally looking to sell majority my physical Gold risen in premium value and buyback when spot Gold lower or pound stronger (or ideally both) 1 oz Britannias. Being in the United when buying gold also have exposure to GBP/USD exchange rate. Individuals increase their net worth consistently have the ability to move into different asset classes. I understand @vand once sold hard to get back in and time the market but this risk sum up and weight the option if it is worthwhile taking.

Jesse Livermore

[Elements]

37 minutes ago, vand said:

Men who can both be

right and sit tight are uncommon.

 

One reason I really like physical over paper is the added inertia I find myself in when considering making a trade. Selling isn’t quite as easy as a click of a mouse. Takes more consideration.

Funnily enough I actually treat fiat cash similarly, physical notes I find harder to spend £ than with those pesky contactless  cards!

[richatthecroft]

9 minutes ago, Elements said:

One reason I really like physical over paper is the added inertia I find myself in when considering making a trade. Selling isn’t quite as easy as a click of a mouse. Takes more consideration.

Totally agree with this. 

 

10 minutes ago, Elements said:

Funnily enough I actually treat fiat cash similarly, physical notes I find harder to spend £ than with those pesky contactless  cards!

I find cash runs through my fingers like sand and much prefer using a card for payment. 

[Zhorro]

1 hour ago, vand said:

Gold has climbed £200 in the last 2 months, but the fundamentals have not changed in that time at all. 

How can you say that nothing fundamental has changed over the past two months?

In terms of UK factors, since the installation of the new Prime Minster, the chances of a “No Deal” Brexit have increased and consequently the Pound has fallen (pushing up the price of gold in Pounds).  It could fall more, but equally, if there was a successful Brexit or no Brexit it could substantially rise.

In international terms, it has become very clear that Central Banks are buying substantial amounts of gold.  Part of this is due to countries like Russia and China wanting to move away from their dependence on Dollars for international trade (in particular the Petrodollar).  Other Central Banks seem to be buying gold to strengthen their reserves.  Add to this:

·         the reclassification in April by Basel III of gold as a Tier I asset for banks’ balance sheets, and

·         the possibility of gold backed crypto-currencies,

and so it would seem that gold is getting a new lease of life as a medium of exchange – thus contributing to the increase in the Dollar price of gold.

We then also have increasing trade tensions and geopolitical tensions, falling/negative interest rates, ballooning debt bubbles and house price bubbles and fears of a recession, all contributing to the flight to the “safe haven” of gold – but from what I’ve stated above, it can be seen that gold is now becoming much more than just a safe haven, it looks to be on the verge of regaining its status in international trade and banking.

And because there is so much talk about gold, it seems that even the wiz kids in the City have started to appreciate it!

[vand]

1 hour ago, Elements said:

One reason I really like physical over paper is the added inertia I find myself in when considering making a trade. Selling isn’t quite as easy as a click of a mouse. Takes more consideration.

Funnily enough I actually treat fiat cash similarly, physical notes I find harder to spend £ than with those pesky contactless  cards!

It is one reason why I still prefer cash as a medium of exchange.

Creditors aren't stupid. They know the long term behavioural impact of frictionless payments.

[vand]

57 minutes ago, Zhorro said:

How can you say that nothing fundamental has changed over the past two months?

In terms of UK factors, since the installation of the new Prime Minster, the chances of a “No Deal” Brexit have increased and consequently the Pound has fallen (pushing up the price of gold in Pounds).  It could fall more, but equally, if there was a successful Brexit or no Brexit it could substantially rise.

In international terms, it has become very clear that Central Banks are buying substantial amounts of gold.  Part of this is due to countries like Russia and China wanting to move away from their dependence on Dollars for international trade (in particular the Petrodollar).  Other Central Banks seem to be buying gold to strengthen their reserves.  Add to this:

·         the reclassification in April by Basel III of gold as a Tier I asset for banks’ balance sheets, and

·         the possibility of gold backed crypto-currencies,

and so it would seem that gold is getting a new lease of life as a medium of exchange – thus contributing to the increase in the Dollar price of gold.

We then also have increasing trade tensions and geopolitical tensions, falling/negative interest rates, ballooning debt bubbles and house price bubbles and fears of a recession, all contributing to the flight to the “safe haven” of gold – but from what I’ve stated above, it can be seen that gold is now becoming much more than just a safe haven, it looks to be on the verge of regaining its status in international trade and banking.

And because there is so much talk about gold, it seems that even the wiz kids in the City have started to appreciate it!

In a sense you are right that there has been plenty of political upheaval, but  politics is temporal and nothing new... the real economic drivers of gold are negative real interest rates and unsustainable debt. The trajectory of the current monetary system is locked into the same course as it was 2 months or 2 years ago. 

Fundamentals do change, but only very slowly. The reasons to own gold are no different than a few months ago, whilst the supply is always fairly constant. It is perceptions, ie sentiment, that can and do change much faster than fundamentals. 

[HawkHybrid]

 

3 hours ago, vand said:

Why not hold for 50 years? After all, Warren Buffett's famously favourite holding period is "forever".

 

I would hate to continually hold a losing trade for

50 years to 'find out' whether I was right or not.

I don't need 50 years to recognise that a trade was

not making me money.

I recognised after luckily buying some silver in dec

2015 that even with the rally in the first half of

2016 that silver likes to not retain it's gains. that's

when I realised that silver is completely different

to gold in it's pricing behaviour. recognising the

mistake I made early allowed me to try to make

improvements to what I bought.

since then I've always voted sovereigns for

newer members interested in precious metals.

 

you are quoting those out of context. they are

saying to not sell a winning trade. what they are

not saying is to wait for up to 50 years as a get

out clause to not have to admit that what they

have is a losing trade.

 

let your winning trades run, and cut the losses

on your losing trades.

 

losing trades needs to make progress in order

to warrant to continue to hold. (ie a mining

company needs to make progress towards

turning a profit for it's shareholders, it can't

stay in the red indefinitely and expect

shareholders to continue holding)

 

HH

[richatthecroft]

[DarkChameleon]

1 hour ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

 

I would hate to continually hold a losing trade for

50 years to 'find out' whether I was right or not.

I don't need 50 years to recognise that a trade was

not making me money.

I recognised after luckily buying some silver in dec

2015 that even with the rally in the first half of

2016 that silver likes to not retain it's gains. that's

when I realised that silver is completely different

to gold in it's pricing behaviour. recognising the

mistake I made early allowed me to try to make

improvements to what I bought.

since then I've always voted sovereigns for

newer members interested in precious metals.

 

you are quoting those out of context. they are

saying to not sell a winning trade. what they are

not saying is to wait for up to 50 years as a get

out clause to not have to admit that what they

have is a losing trade.

 

let your winning trades run, and cut the losses

on your losing trades.

 

losing trades needs to make progress in order

to warrant to continue to hold. (ie a mining

company needs to make progress towards

turning a profit for it's shareholders, it can't

stay in the red indefinitely and expect

shareholders to continue holding)

 

HH

I recall a certain company losing money every u after and people said it would only take a litt,e time and it would go under, that  ompany was amazon.

[KDave]

Near the big $1500. 1500 first then down we go. (I hope )

[HawkHybrid]

1 minute ago, DarkChameleon said:

I recall a certain company losing money every u after and people said it would only take a litt,e time and it would go under, that  ompany was amazon.

 

losing money does not mean not making

progress. all ventures lose money when

starting up.

 

HH

[DarkChameleon]

5 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

losing money does not mean not making

progress. all ventures lose money when

starting up.

 

HH

The market was talk after talk about pulling the,plug on amazon, they were losing billions every quarter, the same is now being said about tesla.

[HawkHybrid]

13 minutes ago, DarkChameleon said:

The market was talk after talk about pulling the,plug on amazon, they were losing billions every quarter, the same is now being said about tesla.

 

are these companies making progress?

are they doing exactly the same thing each

and every year and expecting different

results or are they testing important parts

of the market and coming up with better

ways to try and move forward. there are

two parts to success, ability and timing.

you can't say that if timing is against them

that they are not capable.

(this is in general and not specific to the

companies mentioned)

 

there are two types of employees during a

brown out. those that sit there waiting for the

power to come back online, and those that go

and find something to do while they wait.

 

HH

[DarkChameleon]

They are venture capitalists dreams, to start something new like when they had the dot com boom but also the bust took almost all of them out...thy had good ideas or a way to latch on to others who were making money, for a long time people thought AOL was the amazon of the future, same with yahoo...what makes em can kill em.

[Abyss]

2 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

I would hate to continually hold a losing trade for

50 years to 'find out' whether I was right or not.

Gold very different asset class compared to anything else. Owning physical Gold in your possession not a trade but hedge/insurance and the ability to indefinitely lock away purchasing power without any third party risk.

Trading Gold via Futures/CFDs/Options is a trade. Nothing wrong with doing either or both but because of leverage and the majority of retail traders lose money trading Gold carries significantly higher risks than owning the physical. Also nothing wrong to owning physical asset for more than 50 years and some of physical gold I have comes from late grandmother passed down the generation.

Gold hit high in the following six currencies (image is a couple days old). Maybe parabolic move in the Gold price yet to come maybe blow off top......

[Goldmick]

Update

[HawkHybrid]

36 minutes ago, Abyss said:

Gold very different asset class compared to anything else. Owning physical Gold in your possession not a trade but hedge/insurance and the ability to indefinitely lock away purchasing power without any third party risk.

Trading Gold via Futures/CFDs/Options is a trade. Nothing wrong with doing either or both but because of leverage and the majority of retail traders lose money trading Gold carries significantly higher risks than owning the physical. Also nothing wrong to owning physical asset for more than 50 years and some of physical gold I have comes from late grandmother passed down the generation.

Gold hit high in the following six currencies (image is a couple days old). Maybe parabolic move in the Gold price yet to come maybe below off top......

 

the thing is we're not talking about owning/holding

gold. vand tries to pick the top in the gsr. it was

never about holding gold for 50 years. it's about

picking a possible top(ie trading gold for silver)

then saying that I'm not wrong as I have 50 years

for my trade to play out.

those who understands that there is a big

difference between holding gold for 50 years

and holding silver for 50 years will recognise why

I won't have anything negative to say about those

who continue to hold gold.

holding gold is not a losing trade(it turned a profit).

 

HH

[vand]

Anyone still trading those wiggles?

[HawkHybrid]

8 minutes ago, vand said:

Anyone still trading those wiggles?

 

yes, if a queen turns up I'll call lower every

time.

(banking a profit is still turning a profit)

 

HH