High Gold price predictions in the future

[Dan12345]

So I've read a few times that gold could reach prices of up to £5k in the future. I take that with a pinch of salt but if this was to happen would it be hard to sell the gold you have. Surely no one would want to buy it at those prices or do you think dealers would still buy it. Everyone would want to cash in which also could make it hard to sell. 

Just wondered what peoples opinions on this was if by some miracle it did happen

[motorbikez]

I predict the world will end in the future.

[KevinFlynn]

We shouldn't forget that when Gold reaches 5000 the buying power of 5000 will correlate to the buying power of the price of gold today.

The rise of Gold price should mostly reflect inflation. Maybe a little on top of that. Maybe peaking in case of a worst case scenario. But I believe that when Gold reaches those heights 5.000 will be quite a normal sum. When I grew up in the 80s I believed that I could live well on 2000 (DM) monthly. That would be 1000 Euro theoretically, but even 2000 Euro is not living well these days...

Having said that, institutional buyers will always buy, as they will always sell at those prices.

[modofantasma]

There are often plenty of buyers at the top of a market, when the smart money is getting out. 

Buying low and selling high whilst it seems obvious most people don't want to be that person buying silver/property/stock when it has fallen a lot and there's a lot of negativity about the asset. But when everyone seems to be making money for something the fomo kicks in and finally they get invested when the price has already moved so far because "it just keeps going up" 

[modofantasma]

[Gordy]

The world is full of reports stating 'could' or 'may' or 'possibly' .... my take on these reports is take it with a pinch of salt, it is only what one or two (or more) 'experts' are saying and all i know for sure is the sun rises in the east and sets in the west, every day i wake i'm a day closer to death 🤪 and check the price charts daily for market movement... as you will have probably sold your gold off well before it hits the dizzy heights of £5000 an oz if it rises that far... 

[HawkHybrid]

1 hour ago, Dan12345 said:

So I've read a few times that gold could reach prices of up to £5k in the future. I take that with a pinch of salt but if this was to happen would it be hard to sell the gold you have. Surely no one would want to buy it at those prices or do you think dealers would still buy it. Everyone would want to cash in which also could make it hard to sell. 

Just wondered what peoples opinions on this was if by some miracle it did happen

 

a price prediction without a time frame lacks context and hence lacks insight.

imagine a best before end that reads 'unsuitable for consumption some time in the future' 

with context you can work out how realistic a prediction is.

 

(just so that it's clear. actual experts always give a time frame as they have a track record of how

many times they've been correct in the past. they don't have 'I'm never wrong because there's

unlimited amount of time for my prediction to be correct'. needless to say that those that do not

give a time frame all lack expertise in the field.)

 

HH

Edited September 11, 2021 by HawkHybrid

[coinz123]

Nothing ever really gets cheaper in the long run. 

[dicker]

If gold were to hit 5000 tomorrow people would still buy, just much smaller quantities.

Look at Bitcoin as an example (or tulips…..)

[Midasfrog]

Yes gold will reach 5k at some point in the future might be a few hundred years from now 😃

In the year 1257 Great Britain set an ounce of gold at 0.89 pounds 

The price was raised by about 1 pound each Century 

1351   1.34pounds

1465   2.01 pounds

1546   3.02 pounds

1664   4.05 pounds 

1717   4.25 pounds and kept at 4.25 until 1944

[CollectForFun]

Price of gold (or anything else for that matter in the world of free markets) does not reach price of X just because someone says so (manipulations aside). The price it will reach will be exactly the price the buyers will be willing to buy and sellers willing to sell at at that very moment.

So there will always be buyers at whatever price gold will reach, otherwise the market forces bring it to that level quickly. Your only risk is that the categories of buyers will be different at that time and you in your capacity as a small private investor into physical gold will not be able to reach those buyers without incurring additional costs or effort.

[Dan12345]

The world is definitely changing and over the next 10 years could change more than it has for a very long time. The economy won't be the same and the dollar could crash especially with the amount of money America are printing. All this could drive the prices of PM right up. No one really knows what will happen even mystic meg but we can all live in hope for the highest prices ever. 

[Bigmarc]

I think I worked it out once that gold should be 4800 now if it followed the same inflation path as a first class stamp. It was something like 12p in the 1980s and 85p now, around the 600% mark. I think you can loose sleep over this and the best answer is to stop reading predictions.

[HawkHybrid]

21 minutes ago, Dan12345 said:

The world is definitely changing and over the next 10 years could change more than it has for a very long time. The economy won't be the same and the dollar could crash especially with the amount of money America are printing. All this could drive the prices of PM right up. No one really knows what will happen even mystic meg but we can all live in hope for the highest prices ever. 

 

the £ has been 'crashing' since the height of the british empire(decades ago).

historically the roman debasement of money happened over centuries.

it's only been 50 years since bretton woods. if history rhymes then dollar debasement

could happen for a lot longer. timescale is everything.

doomsday high gold prices is not what I would be hoping for.

 

HH

Edited September 11, 2021 by HawkHybrid

[Bigmarc]

1 hour ago, Midasfrog said:

Yes gold will reach 5k at some point in the future might be a few hundred years from now 😃

In the year 1257 Great Britain set an ounce of gold at 0.89 pounds 

The price was raised by about 1 pound each Century 

1351   1.34pounds

1465   2.01 pounds

1546   3.02 pounds

1664   4.05 pounds 

1717   4.25 pounds and kept at 4.25 until 1944

I like the info, where can I read more please. I read a little while back about isac Newton's unofficial gold standard, that must have started in 1717. I pretty much follow his 4.25 lbs to one ounce ratio now.

[HawkHybrid]

6 minutes ago, Bigmarc said:

I think I worked it out once that gold should be 4800 now if it followed the same inflation path as a first class stamp. It was something like 12p in the 1980s and 85p now, around the 600% mark.

gold was overpriced near the price peak in 1980.

what if you took the price in 1990?

 

HH

[CollectForFun]

40 minutes ago, Bigmarc said:

I think I worked it out once that gold should be 4800 now if it followed the same inflation path as a first class stamp. It was something like 12p in the 1980s and 85p now, around the 600% mark. I think you can loose sleep over this and the best answer is to stop reading predictions.

I am not sure this is the best comparison - I would assume that postal service used to be heavily subsidised and treated more as a public service so the price of a stamp did not necessarily reflect actual cost of providing the service. This has meanwhile changed so the change in the price does not simply reflect actual inflation but rather the entire changing landscape from a regulated business to market economy.

[Bigmarc]

38 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

gold was overpriced near the price peak in 1980.

what if you took the price in 1990?

 

HH

Gold has had a increase of 370% from 1990

A first class stamp had a increase of 286% from 1990 

Gold would be valued at 1450 today.

So we are quids in from 1990 according to the royal mail. I think I only work it out from that date to see what matey was saying about buying corvettes. If you want to compare metal prices with goods and inflation it's best to try and pick something neutral ish. Someone delivering letters to your door has been the same for may years. Maybe a a little automation behind the scenes.

[Bigmarc]

39 minutes ago, CollectForFun said:

I am not sure this is the best comparison - I would assume that postal service used to be heavily subsidised and treated more as a public service so the price of a stamp did not necessarily reflect actual cost of providing the service. This has meanwhile changed so the change in the price does not simply reflect actual inflation but rather the entire changing landscape from a regulated business to market economy.

The problem I had with comparison was gold and silver seemed to be underperforming when looking at other metals (zinc,copper and tin). Gold is money and not really a industrial metal so needed to compare with something neutral to get a idea of what rate it has risen. I tried coffee (that market all over the place). I get the hump when I read random facts about Corvettes, a gallon of gas (liter of fuel). So I figured to pick something where industry hadn't changed too much. A stamp isn't affected by politics, countries going to war or the desire to own more of it financially. 

[SidS]

Anyone see the news today?

GB News discussing UK inflation at 3.2%, comments made that it's higher than expected again. This is the third time it's been reported as higher than expected, and of course as you know, the reported inflation figures aren't actually erm... accurate.