The REAL rate of Inflation?

[Minimalist]

What is absolutely clear is that Western Nations and Central Banks are doing everything to hide the real rate of inflation whilst claiming they are struggling to meet their target of 2%. This deception has enabled the Banks to prevaricate credit/currency expansion. What do you believe is the real yielding rate against our standard of living?

[Roy]

Anyone who thinks inflation is less than 2% must be living in their mother's basement.

If you own/rent a house, pay the utilities, run a car (or two) and put enough food on the table for a family of four, then you know inflation is hovering around 10%.

[Minimalist]

16 hours ago, Roy said:

If you own/rent a house, pay the utilities, run a car (or two) and put enough food on the table for a family of four, then you know inflation is hovering around 10%.

Correct.

To be honest I calculated the same food, consumables and fuel prices from 2018 to now (mostly Asda shopping) and its up 27%. Thats 9%, give or take, on average.

Thats not taken into account of getting the house new laminate flooring. Electrical consumer goods. AA batteries, you name it.

Its over 10% if you really calculate the entire lot.

[Spark268]

its over 10%, what a silly question 🤨

[sixgun]

Well inflation arrived some time ago but they don't like to admit it.

Edited April 12, 2021 by sixgun

[Minimalist]

2 hours ago, sixgun said:

Well inflation arrived some time ago but they don't like to admit it.

It wouldnt surprise me if they eventually take out food prices in the measurements and just leave energy prices, or vice-versa.

[KDave]

I have noticed some inflation feeding through to the consumer, took its time but its here now. At the supermarket last week some of the tinned stuff is up, one item was 33% higher for the same, some of the dairy products are up 10%, those are the ones that stood out. Not much you can do about it other than try front load and buy if things are still cheap and will last.

I bought some stone for building a patio last year, 1 ton pallet was £350, March this year was £430 for the same stone, this is to do with shipping container cost going up 5 fold from last year, not sure why the huge increase. Anything large and bulky being imported will see significant price increases added on if this continues. Small stuff probably won't notice much.

Begs the question as to what to do next regarding the big stuff, I am half tempted to buy a 3 year old used car now but part of me says wait a bit longer for secondary market to flood with cars being returned from unviable PCP contracts. I thought this would have happened already but furlough keeps being extended. Sods law says if I wait inflation will push out any gain and if I buy now I could have gotten one cheaper 6 months down the line.

[Spark268]

2 hours ago, KDave said:

Begs the question as to what to do next regarding the big stuff, I am half tempted to buy a 3 year old used car now but part of me says wait a bit longer for secondary market to flood with cars being returned from unviable PCP contracts. I thought this would have happened already but furlough keeps being extended. Sods law says if I wait inflation will push out any gain and if I buy now I could have gotten one cheaper 6 months down the line.

I've been waiting for this effect but it looks like the trend is for used car prices is to rise; their up about 30% since the nadir last year.

[KDave]

53 minutes ago, Spark268 said:

I've been waiting for this effect but it looks like the trend is for used car prices is to rise; their up about 30% since the nadir last year.

Up 30% already. 

The question is then will things keep ticking along with inflation ticking up, or will we get a Harry Dent style deflationary event that includes ex PCR cars. 

[sixgun]

On 03/03/2021 at 10:39, Roy said:

Anyone who thinks inflation is less than 2% must be living in their mother's basement.

i am living in my mother's basement - have you seen the inflation down here? i think i'll have to move .... into a cardboard box in a lake.

[Roy]

Cardboard box? 

That's it right there, the classic 'depreciating asset', the Motorcar is going up in price?

What a topsy turvy world!

The second hand car dealers are making a fortune, and they're putting it all into RM releases.

 

[KDave]

Good point on the depreciating asset that is a car. Now you say it I have remembered that car finance is part of the bank balance sheets now, another financialisation of the economy. Furlough scheme is doing a good job keeping things ticking along in that regard, no issues for the banks for as long as it continues.

[Spark268]

on the other side of the coin, its wise to take out a new lease if one anticipates further price rises

[Cornishfarmer]

I heard from someone the other day that shipping containers have gone from £5k to £7k,    5 fold increase could be exasperating it a little.    What I can see is people taking the p?!/s at the moment they are charging more because they can.         The price of food is going up because farm gate price is going up at last. Got a few mates who are butchers and they said since Easter lamb sales fallen off a cliff because of the price

[KDave]

I had heard $3 to $15k which sounded mad, but I could believe given what I paid for the sandstone flags this year compared with last. 

I have also heard/read somewhere that there are shortages of materials and goods. British steel have stopped taking orders due to a backlog, apparently huge demand for steel. Some white goods/appliances are impossible to get hold of. Supply chain is a mess and demand is high, perhaps as you say, people taking liberties or the supply/demand side appearing as price increases and it isn't all about inflation. 

[Cornishfarmer]

From the farming point of view I had a quote for a shed last summer and was £37k same shed now £45k. The wood perlings gone from £28 to £35. It’s madness.      Hard to get hold ofsteel made products due to to the companies taking advantage of furlough even tho demand was there last summer, now 3/4 month wait for simple troughs and feeders.     While furlough was a good thing for a lot of companies last year now it’s going to far and some business are still in hibernation when then should be full steam ahead

[KDave]

Price of lumber is one of the big ones running higher, last I discussed it the price had doubled, looks like it hasn't stopped since. 

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/948056/soaring-timber-prices-are-just-one-more-sign-that-inflation-is-on-the-way-948056.html

All related stuff will keep going up as manufacturers try to pass their increasing costs on, consumer will eat most of that. The winner will be the one supplying the lumber. 

[KDave]

The QE of 2020 was not the same as QE 2008;

 

[Cornishfarmer]

Phone call this morning, steel up another £130/t putting another £3k on the shed, this is getting out of hand now.    Building Prices are rocketing and concrete getting hard to come by.      Can’t see that this can continue unless it’s government infrastructure spending.    The boom is getting bigger and when the bong comes that will make it even greater

[Minimalist]

On 12/05/2021 at 15:07, KDave said:

another financialisation of the economy

Everything is. You cannot separate it from anything in life. Our work ours are priced/financialised which is predicated on a credit line/double entry system used from either a corporation or government. Mortgages; double entry system. Car Loan; double entry system. The entire system has us coerced into debt-based-system.

[Minimalist]

HYPERINFLATION INCOMING

[kimchi]

They need to raise interest rates now (well starting a few years ago really, but too late there). Anything else and along with Covid things are going to spiral very, very quickly, and I'll accept that those who said it's a planned destruction of the system as we know it were/are right.

[Minimalist]

17 minutes ago, kimchi said:

They need to raise interest rates now (well starting a few years ago really, but too late there). Anything else and along with Covid things are going to spiral very, very quickly, and I'll accept that those who said it's a planned destruction of the system as we know it were/are right.

They wont raise rates because they cant afford it. This is to transfer more power and wealth into the bankers/elite hands; digital currency and greater globalist powers. The pandemic "system" is masked for civil unrest protocalls. Even the 0 zone that is considered "normal" has civil rights openly violated by the state.

[Uksilverstackers]

Family member got email from Vodafone this week stating they were no longer offering their current plan and are changing it as below....

Please note: your current plan is subject to an annual price increase using the Retail Price Index (RPI) published in March each year. This new plan will increase each April by the Consumer Price Index rate of inflation published in January that year, plus an additional 3.9%. 

[Spark268]

 

17 minutes ago, Uksilverstackers said:

Family member got email from Vodafone this week stating they were no longer offering their current plan and are changing it as below....

Please note: your current plan is subject to an annual price increase using the Retail Price Index (RPI) published in March each year. This new plan will increase each April by the Consumer Price Index rate of inflation published in January that year, plus an additional 3.9%. 

I've had the same with my Plusnet broadband. Most telecoms implemented RPI linkage to their prices, which makes them an under-appreciated inflation hedge compared to inflation linked government bonds.