The REAL rate of Inflation?

[Spark268]

46 minutes ago, kimchi said:

They need to raise interest rates now (well starting a few years ago really, but too late there). Anything else and along with Covid things are going to spiral very, very quickly, and I'll accept that those who said it's a planned destruction of the system as we know it were/are right.

I'm not sure how effective this would be, there's far too much capital out there, and whilst paying interest on it might sponge it, paying increasing amounts of interest on an ever ballooning amount of capital might end badly.  Back in my day, capital was used for productive purposes, but that's a foreign concept these days.

it would choke the housing markets and cause widespread devastation. Remember that the global economy was put on hold for a good year, something that has not happened before. Remove the effects of the government stimulus and the 'money illusion' and it would be clear that the post March 2020 economic recovery would barely register on the chart, after a fall that likely equals or surpasses that of the Great Depression.

In that depression, at least the rich got poorer, and the poorer got better off. That crisis, however, wasn't resolved until WW2.

having a bonfire might be more suitable !

 

[Uksilverstackers]

On 16/06/2021 at 22:29, Spark268 said:

 

I've had the same with my Plusnet broadband. Most telecoms implemented RPI linkage to their prices, which makes them an under-appreciated inflation hedge compared to inflation linked government bonds.

 

 

 

i dont take issue with them linking to an Index, its the +3.9% on top of the Index...

[modofantasma]

I was trying to discuss the real inflation with a couple of friends and their replies were basically 'yeh prices going up lol' 😔

Broadband went up 10% and electricity bill annually up 11% concil tax 4.5% fuel looking pricy, some of my rental properties changed tenants last year and people were bidding the rent up. They went up 10 to 12.5% ... Food I haven't measured exactly, used cars appear to have gone up though again not specifically measured that.. 

Put it this way I can't think of anything I've bought recently that has gone down from recent years 

Can you? Maybe some tech items? I don't really buy new phones or computers or these things to know.. 

[Minimalist]

On 19/06/2021 at 09:48, modofantasma said:

Can you? Maybe some tech items? I don't really buy new phones or computers or these things to know

Technology is and will still inflate; new iPhones are around £1k - new car model is around 10%-20% higher price - laptops and pcs are still trending higher price (mainly due to new technological advancements in graphics card).

As for the basics, my food bill has went up around 12% in most products (mainly meat), electricity bill has been going up again and fiber optic.

[Roy]

I feel inflation when I go to market, but it is the imported fish (salmon and tuna) that has rocketed in price. Native fish remains low.

Chicken and pork prices remain stable, which is good for local families (staples) and vegetables remain low.

It's rice that hurts the pocket. The Philippines has to import rice (long story) and it's expensive to buy a good grade.

Overall, I budget p2500 a week (£35) for a family of 4.

[HawkHybrid]

what is inflation and what is price premium?

it's claimed that america has printed 40% of us dollars since covid. (+66% printed).

yet cardboard is claimed to have risen by four times(+300%).

how much of what people are experiencing are price premium hikes(due to supply problems)?

 

HH

[Spark268]

dining out pre-covid may be ancient history, but i do recall receiving some change from a tenner for a full english breakfast / main meal with a drink at any middling establishment. Now its for a twenty

A cafe nearby that still hasn't re-opened has a full breakie advertised for 6.75, but it's 8.95 everywhere else that's reopened.

...

Edited July 12, 2021 by Spark268

[Minimalist]

8 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

what is inflation and what is price premium?

Inflation; increase of money supply

price premium; supply scarcity

[Minimalist]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha. The Weather.

[HerefordBullyun]

If its on CNN it must be true - noooooooot

[Zhorro]

So, inflation in th UK is running at 3.2%!

In the supermarket this week, I noticed that a small tin of baked beans had gone up from 50p to 55p, i.e a 10% increase.

Earlier this year, when I had my first haircut in 18 months, the price had gone up from £9.50 to £12, i.e. a 26% increase.

Last month Ofgem agreed something like a 12% increase for duel electricity and gas prices.

What is your personal inflation rate running at?

[Bars]

On 15/09/2021 at 08:50, Zhorro said:

So, inflation in th UK is running at 3.2%!

In the supermarket this week, I noticed that a small tin of baked beans had gone up from 50p to 55p, i.e a 10% increase.

Earlier this year, when I had my first haircut in 18 months, the price had gone up from £9.50 to £12, i.e. a 26% increase.

Last month Ofgem agreed something like a 12% increase for duel electricity and gas prices.

What is your personal inflation rate running at?

9.50 for a haircut! lucky sod lol

[HerefordBullyun]

On 15/09/2021 at 08:50, Zhorro said:

 

Earlier this year, when I had my first haircut in 18 months, the price had gone up from £9.50 to £12, i.e. a 26% increase.

 

Id of done it for half price using my garden shears, mind you I can cut hair about as well as stevie wonder sweating in a hotdog factory.

Edited September 17, 2021 by HerefordBullyun

[Spark268]

30 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Id of done it for half price using my garden shears, mind you I can cut hair about as well stevie wonder sweating in a hotdog factory.

Well, that makes us all feel better Bully! Thanks for offering your services into the hairdressing market at half price.

Because of this option, the official inflation rate has fallen by 30% - despite the potential of everyone sporting dodgy haircuts

Edited September 17, 2021 by Spark268

[Minimalist]

On 15/09/2021 at 08:50, Zhorro said:

In the supermarket this week, I noticed that a small tin of baked beans had gone up from 50p to 55p, i.e a 10% increase.

Earlier this year, when I had my first haircut in 18 months, the price had gone up from £9.50 to £12, i.e. a 26% increase.

Last month Ofgem agreed something like a 12% increase for duel electricity and gas prices.

The Organic Steak I purchase was £5.15, now its over £6. That is a 16% increase. That also doesnt apply to other organic goods that is found in my weekly basket.

I am surprised you arent getting certain members on here challenging your buying experience/reality, some on here have a troubling time admitting these prices into their consciousness from a central banking data standpoint. Acknowledging this violates central banking measurements.

Edited September 21, 2021 by Minimalist

[modofantasma]

Top of my head maths that's about 40% increase in electricity prices? 

Is that Eon trying it on? 

Gas standing charge reduced by 1% but unit rate increase from 3.493 to 4.259p so plus 20% ish

[Zhorro]

UK inflation is going down (from 3.2% in August to 3.1% in September) - phew!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58977720

[HerefordBullyun]

1 hour ago, Zhorro said:

UK inflation is going down (from 3.2% in August to 3.1% in September) - phew!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58977720

Must be transitory right?

[Zhorro]

2 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Must be transitory right?

What?  Inflation or the dip?

[HerefordBullyun]

9 minutes ago, Zhorro said:

What?  Inflation or the dip?

Inflation. But twas a tongue in cheek remark. It's only on a macro scale. Global inflation is growing and that certainly ain't transitory. 

[Minimalist]

[Bumble]

There is too much debt, whether government, corporate, municipal or personal. There is no realistic prospect of a sharp increase in economic growth that would allow us to afford it, so the debt must be reduced. It can be reduced in nominal terms, i.e. by defaulting on it, or in real terms, i.e. by inflating it away. The latter is the soft option and is what governments will do. To bring debt under control will require negative real interest rates of probably -4% to -6% for years to come. So, we may reasonably expect inflation to stay at the 4% to 8% level, while interest rates remain very low at about 0% to 2%.

High levels of inflation cost governments money, because they have outgoings, such as benefits and pensions, that are index-linked. So, governments are always motivated to understate inflation. Also, economic performance is often measured as real GDP growth, so the inflation rate acts as a negative factor. Understating inflation makes the real GDP performance look better than it actually is.

Invest accordingly. The worst thing to hold in an inflationary environment is cash. Commodities that will retain their value, such as precious metals, are better. Better still are productive assets, such as farmland or rental properties. Better again are businesses with pricing power that can benefit from higher prices. Best of all is to invest in your own skills and knowledge so that you can always earn a living.

[James32]

29 minutes ago, Bumble said:

There is too much debt, whether government, corporate, municipal or personal. There is no realistic prospect of a sharp increase in economic growth that would allow us to afford it, so the debt must be reduced. It can be reduced in nominal terms, i.e. by defaulting on it, or in real terms, i.e. by inflating it away. The latter is the soft option and is what governments will do. To bring debt under control will require negative real interest rates of probably -4% to -6% for years to come. So, we may reasonably expect inflation to stay at the 4% to 8% level, while interest rates remain very low at about 0% to 2%.

High levels of inflation cost governments money, because they have outgoings, such as benefits and pensions, that are index-linked. So, governments are always motivated to understate inflation. Also, economic performance is often measured as real GDP growth, so the inflation rate acts as a negative factor. Understating inflation makes the real GDP performance look better than it actually is.

Invest accordingly. The worst thing to hold in an inflationary environment is cash. Commodities that will retain their value, such as precious metals, are better. Better still are productive assets, such as farmland or rental properties. Better again are businesses with pricing power that can benefit from higher prices. Best of all is to invest in your own skills and knowledge so that you can always earn a living.

I'm voting you for president 😁 extremely well said.

[Minimalist]

12 hours ago, Bumble said:

There is too much debt, whether government, corporate, municipal or personal. There is no realistic prospect of a sharp increase in economic growth that would allow us to afford it, so the debt must be reduced. It can be reduced in nominal terms, i.e. by defaulting on it, or in real terms, i.e. by inflating it away. The latter is the soft option and is what governments will do. To bring debt under control will require negative real interest rates of probably -4% to -6% for years to come. So, we may reasonably expect inflation to stay at the 4% to 8% level, while interest rates remain very low at about 0% to 2%.

High levels of inflation cost governments money, because they have outgoings, such as benefits and pensions, that are index-linked. So, governments are always motivated to understate inflation. Also, economic performance is often measured as real GDP growth, so the inflation rate acts as a negative factor. Understating inflation makes the real GDP performance look better than it actually is.

Invest accordingly. The worst thing to hold in an inflationary environment is cash. Commodities that will retain their value, such as precious metals, are better. Better still are productive assets, such as farmland or rental properties. Better again are businesses with pricing power that can benefit from higher prices. Best of all is to invest in your own skills and knowledge so that you can always earn a living.

The Fed/BoE will run near or on 0% for the foreseeable until further notice. I am not convinced the system (Banks and Government) will contemplate deflation, at all. Inflation reports (from journalists - not the Fed/BoE) have blamed weather conditions, Russia and China, Trump and small business owners for too much debt (on purpose - out of desperation). Such revisionism and propaganda has rippled through to day to day life where people are blaming Putin for energy prices because the BBC told them (not an ounce of independent thought).

If you observe the Fed/BoE they are attempting at all costs to deny the extent of the inflation figures. When they can conceal energy prices they will attempt to conceal other areas. The finance sector doesnt even mark in energy prices and it has became dogmatic which further risks the extent of the next crash. Everything the Fed/BoE tells the populace the whole financial system marks in their narrative regardless if its true or not. We are living in the largest asset bubble in the history of humanity and people just keep running to banks for more credit while real wage growth is flat. This is insane.

I am sick of the dishonest intent from people in the finance world denying they pay for energy bills and inflated mortgages because the Fed/BoE told them. The entire stockmarket runs on central bank stimulus and half of the people refuse to accept it, or, attempt to deny the overwhelming dependency on cartel injections.

The whole system doesnt even benefit the average person yet they deny their own position for the cartel, its bizarre and frightening. The amount of sheep in the finance world is astonishing.

If you attempt to bring up a "debt jubilee" on consumption based debt or "deflationary" measures with mortgages there is an automatic resentment or outright refusal to consider it.

And ill be honest here, I am convinced half the people at hedge funds have some sort of inveiglement desire for Powell and Andrew Bailey, to the point where they need to address it with their wife or missus (and im being serious here).

[silversky]

Despite the inflation, there isn't going to be a crash any time soon.

And in this clown world (where the media see it as their duty to protect the Brandon administration), it's all going to be sold to the masses as the market finally booming again!  It'll be, "a good thing bro!"  First they laugh, then they deny, and then they tell you it's a good thing.

For the next few years, everything is going to continue going up.  Breath-taking levels of finance are going to be injected and spent in all sorts of boondoggles to keep things chugging along.  The 6uild 6ack 6etter program will juice the system beyond all reality and it'll be party time for all those with real assets.

But it'll all come a cropper in the mid-decade.  Those who're salivating now over "more juice", are already planning how to leave all the hot potatoes for the little people when the time comes.  Until the inevitable arrives, betting against them is like betting against the tide.  It's better to swim with the flow with a branch in sight a couple of years away.

Painful to watch and be gaslighted, but there's absolutely nothing that any of us can do to stop it.  Nothing.

Half the battle is recognising the situation and ignoring the lies.  The other half is to remember in 3-4 years time, that you recognised it was on a collision course, and be disciplined enough to sell everything just as people are telling you that you should be all in.  It's precisely then and not before, that the rug gets pulled.