Silver price about to plummet

[Michal]

Technical analysis has proven to be right all the time except all the times it was wrong. We are not playing numbers game here but peoples game. Numbers are fair and have no favorites until they come form people wanted to prove something, it is called "magic of statistics". But going back to peoples game, let me tell you 2 stories which will become one. What conclusion will you get out of it afterwards depends on you...

 There was a country, country which was beloved and hated by its citizens at the same time. They loved it for its culture, tradition and bond connecting them with soil which was soaked with blood of those which were fighting of its freedom. And they hated it because of government put above them by violence and oppression which told them what to do, when to do and what they have to think, lack of obeyance was punished with full severity and cruelty. After decades of such circumstances people become scared, meek and did obey to their masters. Masters said "you have to save for your future, here is toilet paper save in it it will make your future bright, that what is what i say and demand". So they did, they were spending they time, effort and hard labor in exchange for toilet paper and have to store it in masters house of toilet paper. Oh and there is one more little thing if you don't agree you will be killed or imprisoned, if you try to run away you will be killed or imprisoned. Possession of Precious Metals was forbidden, land and private  proprietary highly restricted and controlled but people worked hard and gathered a lot of toilet paper, like really a lot lets say almost everybody could buy 3 bed flat when they turn up 18 years old  and if masters allowed them to. Then something unbelievable happened, true miracle, masters went away and left those citizens alone to live their life as they want. There was euphoria among the people breath of the freedom fill up their lungs, but there was another miracle going on in the background in house of toilet paper not so optimistic although. When people went to toilet paper house to get their saved toiled paper they were announced that their toilet paper has hanged and now 1000 of toilet papers are worth the same as 1 was worth day before. That was 1000% over night inflation but people were unaware what is inflation and why it hit them, why did it happened to them at all, they were told that one toilet paper is so valuable as one toilet paper and it will stay like that forever. Thing is that they were not told that masters were printing loads of toilet paper and giving only fraction to their slaves rest was just spend by masters for their whims and personal deviations. People were crying and raging but just for short while, anyway they were free at last, so what that they lost wealth produced by couple generations. At this point some neighbor nation pretending to be a friend said " hey come and join our club, you will get soooo much from it, everything for free*, just join "

End of part 1

There will be part 2 about "friendly neighbor nation" and part 3 joining part 1 and 2.

It will be all relate to silver/PM price down eventually but will show bigger and more full picture. But need to see feedback, if it is positive and you want to see other parts I will continue, if not then why should I bother         

[Zhorro]

1 hour ago, Michal said:

Technical analysis has proven to be right all the time except all the times it was wrong.   

Surely the expert well-paid analysts are always right... it is reality that is wrong.

[Shaunbarry]

We in UK can't get that 

[Wonger]

13 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

I don't get this.

if you believe silver(this could be gold, stocks or anything else that's

traded) is going down, and would make you a profit, then short it.

(how you do it and how much risk you taken on is a personal choice).

how many people hedge their physical silver positions? alternatively,

if silver dropped in price in a years time, what does it matter? (many

forum members have seen this before)

physical silver is difficult to trade short term. that's why people trade

electronic/paper positions.

 

why would your physical silver holdings affect your paper trading?

should each trade not be made on their individual merits of risk

and reward?

 

HH

Its quite simple, I think Pm's are going down, I own physical Silver, I do not wish to sell it, so I hedge the entire value by going short $16, if Silver goes down to $13, Ive not lost the $3 value, in fact Ive made a profit in two ways, first the short pays 2% interest while held, second Ive saved $3 in value and can buy $3 plus interest earned value of Silver, so I end up with more Silver.     

[flim]

17 hours ago, sixgun said:

To hedge is to reduce RISK of financial loss.

A (full) SI futures contract is exposure to price movement in 5000oz of silver. This is way more silver than most members here have. i suspect there is only a handful of us have silver holdings this large. A futures contract therefore increases exposure not reduces it. I write.

Members can read what is written. Keep going you'll reach Australia soon enough.

there are mini futures contracts or even CFDs on such contracts

but there are fees involved to hedge, never perfect but

when the stack is small.. it is much better for a stacker to browse around searching for bargains and buy when bargains are a plenty ... rather than spending their time managing their hedge

for a stacker, just buy and chuck them one side then forget about them, and enjoy their life, that is one of their insurance policy

[Wonger]

18 minutes ago, flim said:

there are mini futures contracts or even CFDs on such contracts

but there are fees involved to hedge, never perfect but

when the stack is small.. it is much better for a stacker to browse around searching for bargains and buy when bargains are a plenty ... rather than spending their time managing their hedge

for a stacker, just buy and chuck them one side then forget about them, and enjoy their life, that is one of their insurance policy

Maybe there is some stackers who see their stack value losing money month after month and would prefer it didnt happen and didnt realise they can hedge £1580 of Silver for an outlay to cover margin of only £158 and receive interest. 

[flim]

it is very hard to admit that one is overpaying for something, then realized other people are selling the same thing for so much cheaper

there are people who must not see a lower price for the thing they bought

but what if the price go higher, and new losing money ensure, need to top up again for a few times of margin calls, then forced to cut loss at much higher price....then the price then plunged... that would be double whammy  

[Wonger]

What if they understood the implications of a rising price causing margin calls and had the available liquid capital to meet them knowing their stack value is offsetting all the while earning interest.

What if they buy them and chuck them to one side and forget where they chucked them. 😀

[flim]

the manipulator get paid to keep the price down, and keep putting the gain into them

by the time they remember, that is RIP

 

[HawkHybrid]

3 hours ago, Wonger said:

Its quite simple, I think Pm's are going down, I own physical Silver, I do not wish to sell it, so I hedge the entire value by going short $16,

 

would this not be simpler?

 

HH

[HawkHybrid]

5 hours ago, Michal said:

Technical analysis has proven to be right all the time except all the times it was wrong.

 

technical analysis doesn't work like that. it's like counting

cards, you learn how to do it to increase your odds of

winning. you will win, you will lose. done correctly you

should end up winning more on average than you lose.

(this can take time as there can be possible a huge

losing streak just as is possible a huge winning streak)

it's a 'get better odds' game, not a crystal ball.

 

HH

[Wonger]

55 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

would this not be simpler?

 

HH

No as the purpose of this thread is to explain that anyone holding physical can hedge downside risk if they so wish and will even earn an income while doing it, if I wanted it to be about naked shorting it would of been.   

 

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Added 0 minutes later...

 

[sixgun]

There are very few members here with a 5000oz+ silver stack. A full SI contract is for 5000oz of silver. So dealing in one of these contracts for the vast majority of members cannot be anything but speculation as they increase their exposure.

There is the E-mini silver futures contract. The volume of this is very small and so this is not really a suitable product.

On page 7 we saw spread betting mentioned - now this is practical as you can bet £1 per cent moved in the price of silver and could hedge a stack of a little as 130oz.

Re-reading the first post, it has been altered, it has been edited. i remember there was mention of hedging the stack + there was be a speculative element involved - that there was an element of naked shorting.

Hedging is useful in some circumstances for some people. It locks in price. If you have 5000oz of silver and sell a full SI contract you forgo upside and have no downside risk. You exchange upside profit to guarantee no downside loss. When short you have the small bonus of a yield.

Personally i would not recommend futures to members and certainly not for 'hedging'. The typical SF member does not intend to sell their stack, so in reality it becomes speculation and not hedging. The silver is not actually available for sale. If price goes down you make a profit and if it goes up you make a loss. If price goes up your trading account balance will go down and typical SF members wouldn't be selling their silver to recoup that loss. They have their silver and (more or) less cash, the silver isn't for sale.

This is an interesting topic and Wonger is making some profit having sold contract(s) at a price higher than the current price.

i picked Wonger up on his ideas about the world power structure and his analysis of the information - eg Aaron Russo/Nick Rockefeller, but also the view the 'Rothschilds' control Russia and China. Virtually everything we are told by the mainstream media (controlled propaganda) outlets is a lie, so unless you are prepared to spend a lot of time, make a lot of contacts, do a lot of work and even more thinking time, you aren't going to come close to what is happening.

[HawkHybrid]

people don't hedge their physical silver holdings because they

can. they hedge their physical silver holdings because it makes

sense to do so. there are criteria for this to make sense.

maybe you can explain more with actual data about size of

stack required etc that may benefit from hedging. and also

risks involved.

 

21 minutes ago, sixgun said:

typical SF members wouldn't be selling your silver to recoup that loss.

there's the issue of numi/semi numi, spread on trade etc. how

many people actually hold lots of bullion only physical silver?

 

HH

[Wonger]

This is someone's credibility after accusing me of altering the original post by deleting content, they are out their league and know it and are now resorting to untruth, how sad! 😀

 

 

[sixgun]

@Wonger you haven't posted enough or been here long enough to have credibility.

[Shaunbarry]

£11.69 an oz  wow

[Tn21]

its what happens in a market, prices fluctuate up and down

[Shaunbarry]

Didn't think it would go this low

[bored]

buy buy buy mortimer

[Shaunbarry]

Ok Bob

[Peacemaker]

2 minutes ago, Shaunbarry said:

Ok Bob

how long have been at this? you will learn it fluctuates all year round, It was at £15.50 when I got into it, then went as low as £9, unless a major spike or dip like them makes silver news, I never even check the price before buying or selling, I check now and again but it will drive you crazy following it religiously

[BackyardBullion]

An oz of silver is still worth an oz of silver.

The lovely gains in the value of the pound has helped a lot this week, but it is still good to see prices going down a little.

But just remember to stick to budgets and plans, all a reduction bin silver price means is that your budget gets you a little more silver for the same money next time you buy

[Bullionbilly]

10 minutes ago, BackyardBullion said:

An oz of silver is still worth an oz of silver.

The lovely gains in the value of the pound has helped a lot this week, but it is still good to see prices going down a little.

But just remember to stick to budgets and plans, all a reduction bin silver price means is that your budget gets you a little more silver for the same money next time you buy

Wise words BYB.

[Wonger]

1 hour ago, Shaunbarry said:

Didn't think it would go this low

Be very very careful, just one large trading house has clients 90% long paper Silver!