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Robb

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  1. Like
    Robb got a reaction from HonestMoneyGoldSilver in Pep talk: don't sell your PM now   
    On the other hand, Silver has been averaging 0.8% over the last 10 years... 😉 
    Gold was $1155.51 on July 14, 2015
    Gold is $1817 on July 14, 2020
    I think that is more like a tick under 9.5% per year in what is arguably a great bull run.  Paying off debt guarantees the return. Hoping the great bull run continues doesn't 😉 
    I agree that for some, the time value of money should be in their calculus but for the majority with debt, it is the opportunity cost of their PM investments that might be more critical.  Paying six, seven hundred dollars in interest  month after month after month for a decade or longer can erode any "potential" PM profits.  Quickly.
    Again, it all depends on one's goals and their view of the future.  Holding PMs now might be a good move for some.  For others, selling will be wiser.  In the case of silver, who knows?   They can probably buy it back in a decade for the same price with those less valuable Fiat dollars 😉
  2. Like
    Robb got a reaction from HonestMoneyGoldSilver in Pep talk: don't sell your PM now   
    If you are carrying debt selling your Gold to pay it off will give you a guaranteed return.  For example, if you owe $150K USD on a mortgage with a 5% rate, selling the Gold to pay off the loan guarantees you an annual return of 5% equal to the term of the mortgage (5, 10, 20 or more years).
    Or, another way to think about it is that your gold is costing you 5% per year to hold so the first 5% of appreciate (per year) that it "might" rise just keeps you even.
    Deciding to sell is complicated and one size does not fit all.
     
     
  3. Like
    Robb got a reaction from albi1 in Can you profit BIG with silver without apocalyptic hyperinflation, US dollar crash and all those things   
    Not sure if one is worried about inflation or profiting "BIG" PMs are the place to be.  Historically they don't do much.  A decade ago (May 28, 2011) silver was $38 usd per Troy oz...
    Without even calculation the opportunity costs, those  stacking monster boxes back then have lost money ;-(
    During the same period millions of dollars were made stacking crypto/real estate/equities/etc.
    In inflationary times using the principle of the lever is awesome:  You pay back your leveraged debt with dollars worth less and less each month while the asset securing the debt increases in value...It is a beautiful thing....PMs don't really do that 😞
    Leveraged Real Estate investments I made a decade ago (instead of buying PMs) have made literally 100's of thousands of dollars.  Ten years ago today at $800/ roll for ASEs a monster box would have cost at least $20,000 cash, with zero return a decade later.
    The $8,000 usd I put down on my investment property made me $200k usd over the same 10 year period....
    Sooo, to answer the OP's question "can you profit BIG" the answer is sure...but that isn't the important question 😉
    The important question is: "what is the probability of profiting BIG buying Silver" ?  
    The answer to that question is:  "Practically zero".  There are MUCH better investment vehicles out there if your goal is to profit big.  
    As someone already posted:  Diversification is Key
     
     
     
     
     
     
  4. Like
    Robb reacted to Stuntman in Priced in gold   
    ^^^ I don't think so.  The lines being in lockstep between 1952 and 1967 is because the value of gold was 100% linked to the value of fiat.  So regardless of the item in question (whether houses or computers in your example), the two lines would stay in step.  The lines diverge when the value of gold differs from the value of fiat (in this particular instance, the price of gold in GBP).
    The slope of either of the two lines clearly also then depends on their relative value versus house prices.  So the fiat line generally keeps rising (because housing usually costs more to buy, due to inflation - whether wages or house prices, or both) whereas the gold line goes up and down depending on whether the gold price rises faster than house prices.
    You can also see in the chart that the fiat line actually slopes downwards in the early 1990s (post-recession in the UK) and in the late 2000s (post-global financial crisis).  This accords with the reality of the UK housing market.   The gold line decreased sharply in the late 2000s (in fact between 2005 and 2012) because the gold price was increasing rapidly, while for some of that time the housing market was decreasing.  So in 2012 you would have needed far fewer ounces of gold to buy the same sort of house than you would have done in 2005.
    Note also that the chart appears to have a logarithmic scale on the Y-axis so the slope of the lines is not directly linear.  In other words, the slopes would be a lot steeper if the Y-axis had a linear scale.
    That's my analysis, anyway 🙂 
  5. Like
    Robb got a reaction from Foster88 in Priced in gold   
    The chart indicates that (generally) gold is hedge against the rising prices of homes in the UK between the early 1950's and today.  To wit:
    The chart begins in the early part of the 1950's.  At that time, gold was given an index of 100 as was the price of a house in the UK (which is problematic, as you will see).
    Soooo....in 1953ish  both the real estate home price and the gold price were indexed the same:  100 (since that is the starting date)
    From the early 1950's up until about 1968 or so, the price of gold and the price of UK houses remained similar:  If you look at the slope of the lines between 1953ish and 1968ish they are identical.  
    What does that mean?  (this is why you should have paid attention in math class).  It means that the value of both gold and real estate were rising at the same rate (hence the same slope or rise/run).  As the price of homes went up, the cost you pay in fiat or gold followed in lock-step.  Gold or fiat...made no difference they were the same (relative to house prices, per this chart).
    But, take a look at 1973:  Gold and home price in fiat now diverge dramatically.  The gold slope becomes negative, while the slope of the house bought with fiat goes positive.
    Now, the house will cost you more in Fiat, but less in Gold.   Why is that news?
    Because if you had 50 oz of gold (arbitrary number for demonstration) in 1973 and did NOT buy a house for whatever reason you could buy the same exact house 10 years later for the same amount of gold  In other words, your gold has not lost value (relative to housing in UK).
    If, on the other hand, I had 50k in fiat and waited the same 10 years, I would now need about 210k in fiat to buy the same exact home that I looked at 10 years previously.
    Of course there are many, many other factors that need to be included in a calculus of this level but the idea is to show you how awesome gold is why you need to buy it from the seller 😉
    The reality is much more complex, but one that sticks out to me is what data was used to generate the UK home values ?  Median?  Mean?  Was the general increase in home sizes/amenities taken into consideration? In New England where I live, homes from the late 1960's and 1970's can't be compared to homes build in the 2000's due to size increases and other factors.  They are naturally going to be more expensive since they are so much better.   You could make your own chart using  info from you local area and get more accurate info.  Where I live I use median home value per zip code and try to normalize for location and type/size of house. 
    The price of gold in the 1950's up to 1974 is also a bit problematic to me since well, many of us couldn't legally own it 😉
     Remember:   People can cherry pick data to infer any conclusion they want.  You need to understand the biases of those creating the chart and really think about what they are trying to prove and why 😉 
     
     
  6. Super Like
    Robb got a reaction from MetalsMan in Gold Detector   
    Pretty sure most burglars worth their salt carry a metal detector to find hidden goodies.   A hand held wand that will detect PMs would cost about $300 usd .  The hand held wands are OK, but better would be full-blown prospector detector with a larger head that can be used to sweep the outside grounds, the floors, closets, and even ceilings pretty quickly.
    Most can detect as little as half a grain of gold (!).   Yes, they will not discriminate very well (metal is metal to most of them) but an experienced user will know when he is sweeping over a nail head or a gold sovereign ;-)
    I have no idea if a metal detector was used in this case, but it is certainly possible.
  7. Like
    Robb got a reaction from SilverStorm in Can you profit BIG with silver without apocalyptic hyperinflation, US dollar crash and all those things   
    Not sure if one is worried about inflation or profiting "BIG" PMs are the place to be.  Historically they don't do much.  A decade ago (May 28, 2011) silver was $38 usd per Troy oz...
    Without even calculation the opportunity costs, those  stacking monster boxes back then have lost money ;-(
    During the same period millions of dollars were made stacking crypto/real estate/equities/etc.
    In inflationary times using the principle of the lever is awesome:  You pay back your leveraged debt with dollars worth less and less each month while the asset securing the debt increases in value...It is a beautiful thing....PMs don't really do that 😞
    Leveraged Real Estate investments I made a decade ago (instead of buying PMs) have made literally 100's of thousands of dollars.  Ten years ago today at $800/ roll for ASEs a monster box would have cost at least $20,000 cash, with zero return a decade later.
    The $8,000 usd I put down on my investment property made me $200k usd over the same 10 year period....
    Sooo, to answer the OP's question "can you profit BIG" the answer is sure...but that isn't the important question 😉
    The important question is: "what is the probability of profiting BIG buying Silver" ?  
    The answer to that question is:  "Practically zero".  There are MUCH better investment vehicles out there if your goal is to profit big.  
    As someone already posted:  Diversification is Key
     
     
     
     
     
     
  8. Like
    Robb got a reaction from Nowhereman in Can you profit BIG with silver without apocalyptic hyperinflation, US dollar crash and all those things   
    Not sure if one is worried about inflation or profiting "BIG" PMs are the place to be.  Historically they don't do much.  A decade ago (May 28, 2011) silver was $38 usd per Troy oz...
    Without even calculation the opportunity costs, those  stacking monster boxes back then have lost money ;-(
    During the same period millions of dollars were made stacking crypto/real estate/equities/etc.
    In inflationary times using the principle of the lever is awesome:  You pay back your leveraged debt with dollars worth less and less each month while the asset securing the debt increases in value...It is a beautiful thing....PMs don't really do that 😞
    Leveraged Real Estate investments I made a decade ago (instead of buying PMs) have made literally 100's of thousands of dollars.  Ten years ago today at $800/ roll for ASEs a monster box would have cost at least $20,000 cash, with zero return a decade later.
    The $8,000 usd I put down on my investment property made me $200k usd over the same 10 year period....
    Sooo, to answer the OP's question "can you profit BIG" the answer is sure...but that isn't the important question 😉
    The important question is: "what is the probability of profiting BIG buying Silver" ?  
    The answer to that question is:  "Practically zero".  There are MUCH better investment vehicles out there if your goal is to profit big.  
    As someone already posted:  Diversification is Key
     
     
     
     
     
     
  9. Like
    Robb got a reaction from Bigmarc in Can you profit BIG with silver without apocalyptic hyperinflation, US dollar crash and all those things   
    Not sure if one is worried about inflation or profiting "BIG" PMs are the place to be.  Historically they don't do much.  A decade ago (May 28, 2011) silver was $38 usd per Troy oz...
    Without even calculation the opportunity costs, those  stacking monster boxes back then have lost money ;-(
    During the same period millions of dollars were made stacking crypto/real estate/equities/etc.
    In inflationary times using the principle of the lever is awesome:  You pay back your leveraged debt with dollars worth less and less each month while the asset securing the debt increases in value...It is a beautiful thing....PMs don't really do that 😞
    Leveraged Real Estate investments I made a decade ago (instead of buying PMs) have made literally 100's of thousands of dollars.  Ten years ago today at $800/ roll for ASEs a monster box would have cost at least $20,000 cash, with zero return a decade later.
    The $8,000 usd I put down on my investment property made me $200k usd over the same 10 year period....
    Sooo, to answer the OP's question "can you profit BIG" the answer is sure...but that isn't the important question 😉
    The important question is: "what is the probability of profiting BIG buying Silver" ?  
    The answer to that question is:  "Practically zero".  There are MUCH better investment vehicles out there if your goal is to profit big.  
    As someone already posted:  Diversification is Key
     
     
     
     
     
     
  10. Like
    Robb got a reaction from SilverStorm in All! Beware of fake gold graded coins in fake holders   
    That is why I purchased a Sigma Metalytics Verifier, which can read most coins through the slab using one of the accessory wands.   Why people slab common bullion coins is beyond my understanding but I guess there is a market for them.
  11. Like
    Robb got a reaction from Shep in All! Beware of fake gold graded coins in fake holders   
    That is why I purchased a Sigma Metalytics Verifier, which can read most coins through the slab using one of the accessory wands.   Why people slab common bullion coins is beyond my understanding but I guess there is a market for them.
  12. Like
    Robb got a reaction from Spark268 in Why is gold so precious?   
    Yes, gold has better corrosion resistance and is used in mission critical applications.  Most people mistakenly believe gold is used in those applications due to superior electrical conductivity.  Silver and copper are both better conductors...
    The 'fingers' of the various PCB in a PC (memory, adapter cards, even CPUs  etc) are plated, about 30 micoinches or about a 0.000762 millimeter coating (!).
    Each generation of PCBs require less and less gold to manufacture.  The result is the  industrial use of gold as each decade passes remains relatively flat, despite an increase in the quantity of electrical devices require the superior corrosion resistance that gold offers.   25 years ago an Intel Pentium Pro CPU using a Pin Grid Array connector had enough gold for 100s of modern Flip Chip CPUs with Land Grid Array connections.  BTW, that old Intel Pentium Pro cpu that most people just threw away,  contained about 0.33 grams of 24k gold (!).
  13. Like
    Robb got a reaction from GoldenGriffin in Why is gold so precious?   
    Silver has better electrical conductivity than gold.
  14. Like
    Robb got a reaction from GoldenGriffin in Why is gold so precious?   
    Yes, gold has better corrosion resistance and is used in mission critical applications.  Most people mistakenly believe gold is used in those applications due to superior electrical conductivity.  Silver and copper are both better conductors...
    The 'fingers' of the various PCB in a PC (memory, adapter cards, even CPUs  etc) are plated, about 30 micoinches or about a 0.000762 millimeter coating (!).
    Each generation of PCBs require less and less gold to manufacture.  The result is the  industrial use of gold as each decade passes remains relatively flat, despite an increase in the quantity of electrical devices require the superior corrosion resistance that gold offers.   25 years ago an Intel Pentium Pro CPU using a Pin Grid Array connector had enough gold for 100s of modern Flip Chip CPUs with Land Grid Array connections.  BTW, that old Intel Pentium Pro cpu that most people just threw away,  contained about 0.33 grams of 24k gold (!).
  15. Like
    Robb got a reaction from LiquidMetalsUK in All! Beware of fake gold graded coins in fake holders   
    That is why I purchased a Sigma Metalytics Verifier, which can read most coins through the slab using one of the accessory wands.   Why people slab common bullion coins is beyond my understanding but I guess there is a market for them.
  16. Like
    Robb got a reaction from dicker in All! Beware of fake gold graded coins in fake holders   
    That is why I purchased a Sigma Metalytics Verifier, which can read most coins through the slab using one of the accessory wands.   Why people slab common bullion coins is beyond my understanding but I guess there is a market for them.
  17. Like
    Robb reacted to vand in Pep talk: don't sell your PM now   
    Another friendly bump, just in case anyone is tempted.
    Yes, gold has just taken out its old USD highs. So what? The inflation adjusted equivilent would be about $2300 compared to its 2011 price. The Dow/gold adjusted price would be $4400.
    If we are truly in a secular bull market then gold will easily take out both those targets.
     
     
  18. Super Like
    Robb got a reaction from 5huggy in Pep talk: don't sell your PM now   
    If you are carrying debt selling your Gold to pay it off will give you a guaranteed return.  For example, if you owe $150K USD on a mortgage with a 5% rate, selling the Gold to pay off the loan guarantees you an annual return of 5% equal to the term of the mortgage (5, 10, 20 or more years).
    Or, another way to think about it is that your gold is costing you 5% per year to hold so the first 5% of appreciate (per year) that it "might" rise just keeps you even.
    Deciding to sell is complicated and one size does not fit all.
     
     
  19. Like
    Robb got a reaction from Chorlton in Pep talk: don't sell your PM now   
    If you are carrying debt selling your Gold to pay it off will give you a guaranteed return.  For example, if you owe $150K USD on a mortgage with a 5% rate, selling the Gold to pay off the loan guarantees you an annual return of 5% equal to the term of the mortgage (5, 10, 20 or more years).
    Or, another way to think about it is that your gold is costing you 5% per year to hold so the first 5% of appreciate (per year) that it "might" rise just keeps you even.
    Deciding to sell is complicated and one size does not fit all.
     
     
  20. Like
    Robb got a reaction from Prophecy in List of useful equipment to test gold bullion/coins   
    Nice thing about the Sigma as that it can also help you when selling.  Buyers seem a bit more at ease and I think appreciate it when I put a coin or bar on it.  It isn't inexpensive but if you are going to be investing substantial money into PMs it is another tool you can use to check what you are buying.  I also like that it can read through plastic mint sealed coins and bars without damage to the packaging.
  21. Like
    Robb got a reaction from LiquidMetalsUK in List of useful equipment to test gold bullion/coins   
    Nice thing about the Sigma as that it can also help you when selling.  Buyers seem a bit more at ease and I think appreciate it when I put a coin or bar on it.  It isn't inexpensive but if you are going to be investing substantial money into PMs it is another tool you can use to check what you are buying.  I also like that it can read through plastic mint sealed coins and bars without damage to the packaging.
  22. Like
    Robb reacted to daca in List of useful equipment to test gold bullion/coins   
    Just discovering one fake 1/2oz gold/ PGM  item  will make worth buying a Sigma.
  23. Like
    Robb reacted to Prophecy in List of useful equipment to test gold bullion/coins   
    I have a Sigma on the way. If you are buying regular physical gold/silver for a long time to come, no matter the quantity, it is a wise investment. Remember, you can sell the Sigma just as quickly as you bought it should you need to release the funds (for almost the same amount).
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