Martlet

24 minutes ago, Rll1288 said:

Not so much charts as ... actual physical experience... taken out deals etc.. we have seen weekly shopping increase on products.. now this could be related to supplies but over the next few months I would be surprised in goods and service cost do not increase..... the package of items that are used in determining inflation is flawed.... Oil included when more people working from home etc. just my personal view. Its a bit like premiums on silver they go up quicker then they come down

So to summarise, inflation isnt happening yet, you expect it to.   Also point out BoE governor ruled out negative rates a couple of days ago, doesnt seem to have filtered through as much as story it was being looked at.  

Sitting around support line, next stop down ~1880.  

1 hour ago, CryptoSpiridiumZ said:

I have been checking coinvest out but i am a little suspicious on how they do business. They want to send me their bank details from the UK to avoid any charges apparently otherwise they offer an express option with visa but charge 2% of the order total or something like that. Is it safe to pay their bank in the UK and have you had experience with them?.

It is quite normal in bullion world to pay direct to bank accounts, its cheapest way to transfer (free).  

1 hour ago, Russell said:

I am watching an update to my last post and the shadowstats are also seeing anomalies.  The market is being rigged to raid gold and Silver to get stock for the contracts because people are taking delivery and they have not got it in my humble opinion.

 

The premise seems to be contracts roll over to later months as there isnt any supply for delivery. There is another simple reason, the contracts are bought by speculators that dont want delivery, so next month, next quarter or end of year is fine for them. The fact they ignore this possibility, means you should probably ignore their conclusions as they are flawed. 

If current level doesnt hold, next stop around 1895.

I'd pass those messages onto Perth Mint, other mints you ordered products of, UPS, and start legal proceedings. Nothing will come of this until a lawyer's letter arrives.  

Given them slack in the past, its incredible how they are hostile to customer problems.

15 hours ago, HerculeHolmes said:

I put a small amount of money on Shell and BP using Trading 212. I was tempted to add more but Ramin over at PensionCraft rates the Trading 212 app as "gambling". Maybe I should stick with index funds.

I would say Ramin at Pensioncraft is being a bit of an arse.  There's nothing gambling about using a particular app for investment and trading.  Trading 212 is just a tool, strategy of how we chose to invest is upto us, and you can buy index funds on Trading 212 too. 

Sadly last comment permitted on this subject as another sub-forum goes off limits to non-paying members of community.  Enjoy your investment. 

1 hour ago, KDave said:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4370008-coming-inflation-boom-is-going-to-catch-lot-of-people-off-guard

If you want some encouragement instead read this one 

Low prices are the cure to low prices

MMT certainly wont save us.  Its proponents are socialists that dont see a problem controlling inflation through tax, as they love to tax everything anyway. 

20 minutes ago, Stacktastic said:

I tend to think that Shell could survive a recession better. 

Why?

1 hour ago, Stacktastic said:

I would have thought that about Shell & BP this time last year, if this carries on for any amount of time, they will have to keep drilling & have no one to buy the product. 

Already past the bottom of economic demand. The effects will be felt, rippling out for a while yet, demand wont go lower than it was and large number of wells even fields have ceased production. Some wont come back on line, so price should stabilise to somewhere $50-60bbl.

Bank minutes are a curious thing, they spook/spike markets yet are old news of policy decisions taken and enacted a few weeks before. 

7 minutes ago, Stacktastic said:

What do yaaal make of this? I am being agist here, cant take him seriously - he looks about 15!! 😛

I dont think his age comes into it, just poorly informed views. Doesnt understand PE or real investor sentiment, completely disregarded value of dividends. 

41 minutes ago, Stacktastic said:

You were not wrong there, still dropping. I am considering buying more, but might cost average it? 
I cant see Shell ever going under & they will start selling more fuel at some point wont they? 

What would happen if the makets completely bottom out & reset out of interest? Would I be on a loss, would I have to wait 10-20 years for it to go back up?
Im not toughing any other stocks, even ETF's until I know that this wont happen. Mining stocks are OK I hope, although my portfolio is -£30 atm!.

That would depend on what you mean by bottom out & reset. The markets bottomed out back in March and oil has not recovered largely due to oversupply, lower demand for oil. This we expect to return in the coming quarters.  A reset is less defined, one version is complete economic collapse in which all stock holdings go to nothing as the money they are valued in goes to nothing.  Tangible assets would still have some value but with full collapse of the economy there would be no cash flow, no productivity, no earnings for companies, so stocks become next to worthless. 

If reverse holds, see $1920 this week. 

6 minutes ago, Kman said:

I have a trend line draw in that I expect to hold

It slides from ~$1700 today to ~$1830 being the bottom at the start of 2021

Whether I'm right and whether we touch down and test that in the next 6 months who knows

It's 15% drop though from where we are now, that's very big for gold, what would be the catalyst? 

Changing news on scale and impact of recession.  It has been observed that gold is not a hedge for inflation, its a hedge for bad news.  ~$1700 would remain high for long term trends and still be within bull market, healthy even for long term. 

50 minutes ago, Zhorro said:

But why would they sell half of their interest in silver all at once?

Unconventional view I know, maybe its not their silver and its held for client(s), who wanted to take profit?

9 minutes ago, Kookaburracollector said:

Word on the street is that JP Morgan placed an Open Order (to sell at any price) on the COMEX yesterday, for half of their interest...and that’s why Silver bombed! (See Gregory Mannarino YouTube from yesterday https://youtu.be/0UhSjGgFTkk

Looking like a quick recovery this morning..so far!

And took gold with it?  The sell off started in the morning European time, so this would be more likely reaction than cause. 

18 minutes ago, Kman said:

...Would be silly to react off of it anyway.

Welcome to the irrational behaviour of markets.

10 minutes ago, MancunianStacker said:

Is the price drop due to Putin’s miracle vaccine 💉 being declared today? 

Could be, its a signal there is a solution and return to normal.  I'd wait for a properly tested, approved one before getting out the bunting, its certainly a reminder this will be a time limited issue. 

(removed, not the right thread for this. )

24 minutes ago, Oldun said:

Every single time silver has rocketed, it nose dives back most of the way.....until the next time with long timeframes to sit and wait out (or accumulate). They dont call it the widowmaker in the pits for nothing !

This is what i was getting at earlier, without the clarity the graph brings. 

@OldunWould you say a target of 4% inflation is reflected in current price increases, or expecting far higher?  Right now we dont have anywhere near 4%, and large risk of deflation.  The concern would be PM prices are in a commodity bubble, ready to burst on a minor policy change, not a steady increase that encourages medium-long term investment. 

6 minutes ago, Oldun said:

Semantics, mirror, reflect, front run...either way this time silver is sniffing inflation due to the decline in the usd (which creates inflation in commodities).

Not really semantics, mirror means copying, front running is ahead of and implies speculation here as events have not happened.  There is presently no significant inflation. Asset price increases are not inflation, commodities go up and down all the time independent of inflation. 

45 minutes ago, Oldun said:

Silver mirrors inflation/deflation. Now real unpaid for “free” money is awash in the real economy (whilst companies go deep into the red) via furlough payments etc, silver smells real inflation. Up until now, banks etc have gotten their mitts on the “free” money and has been leveraged out to create the stockmarket rise through buybacks etc. so the real economy hasn’t seen any real inflation....until now....silver isn’t known as “the widow mkaer” for nothing. It will do nothing for decades and the become a beast in both directions before lying dormant for ages again once inflation is under control again. Silver and gold smell real world inflation in the pipeline.

So what you say is silver front runs, not mirrors, inflation.  This will be important if inflation doesnt materialise, does that lead to a sharp fall?  And what if we do see inflation at modest levels, managed by low interest rates?  I dont believe the old ideas necessarily work anymore, if they ever did. 

2 minutes ago, Robjw said:

Ive been looking into it and it seems like I have very little options open to me on this one. My bank put me through to a specialist on these things and they explained that being a international purchase done via direct bank transfer makes it extremely difficult to take court action against them unless I plan on spending a huge amount of money. The other issues are the seller has proof of dispatch so in legal terms did what they promised in our contract, I paid they dispatched via courier. Then the last issue is UPS are at fault and while the seller should raise a dispute they dont legally need to.

Then on fraud, the police said the tracking says received by Robert and there is no signature so does not count as fraud, if there was a signature they might of been able to raise it but they suggested I contact UPS tell them to investigate.

So basically its an expensive lesson.

I think a letter from a solicitor, requesting their full cooperation in assisting a claim against UPS would be cheap and put a rocket up them.  On the UPS side, the matter would be theft of the goods, not fraud.