Martlet

38 minutes ago, Bigmarc said:

Had a quick look around and so far all I can gather is the LBMA has a exemption. So currently not going to happen. But you know how these things are, different interpretations all over the place.

LMBA is a group, so they are not exempt.  Their members, banks and traders, may have to concern themselves with Basel III.  The banks holding on account for others shouldnt be affected as it's not their asset.  The banks holding for ETFs wouldnt be affected as they're allocated (officially at least), and not on their balance sheet. The banks holding on own account for their balance sheet will be affected. 

54 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

.. Enjoy your margret thatcher flag waving keynesian baby boomer banking cartel delusion....  

Couldnt let that pass, Thatcher a Keynesian? 

9 hours ago, HerefordBullyun said:

BTW @Martlet Me @Minimalist and @sixgun are giving you the solution to the morality of money.

Yes we know lifes not fair, but people like yourself who blindly support it - are the cancer not the cure. Another punchbowl sir, for an already drunk ecomony?

Japan 20 Years 0% intrest rates ECB 10 years 0% interest rates UK 5 years near 0% intrest rates, The FED 3 years near 0% interest rates. Can you see what the junk bond market and Deraritives have done. Killed prosperity! You want that for you and the future of your family?

 

There's a difference between supporting and accepting.  I do the latter and treat metals as a hedge against a reaction to the excess.  As part of that acceptance, I dont buy into the thesis that, with a playground of trillions of $ in hundreds of different markets, there is a group out to suppress two markets long term.  It is difficult and expensive to push down prices over long periods, I'm yet to hear where the unmet demand is that's being suppressed all this time. 

4 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Thats the point - derivatives caused the last financial crash and junk bonds. Why have belief in a system thats made on piece of paper that actually doesnt deliver on whats written in the contract. Its absolute lunacy and propping up a ponzi scheme.....

I can see the problem here. Theres a difference between how one would like things to be, and how the world actual works. We adapt to it or howl at the moon about how wrong it all is. That is lunacy. 

17 minutes ago, Minimalist said:

Show me where 45% of annual supply Short was yesterday. You cant, because it doesnt exist - the action was to suppress the price.

I'm confused as you are the one making the claim.  Presumably volume for a lot silver was traded, good job it wasnt physical as that would really suppress the price. 

16 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Where can market demand something that doesnt exist - its illogical and illegal.

Trillions of derivatives in so many different markets, say a market can do this, quite legally. 

The question is where can market demand not be met without price impact over time.  Why are there not buyers in secondary, bidding up physical at ever increasing prices above the market rate?  Isn't that what you'd expect if there were so much unmet demand? 

13 minutes ago, Minimalist said:

So the ratio 188:1 is nonsense? These ratios can be met?

There's a rational explaination, that market only want the derivative, not the physical product. 

You can continue to believe demand that is unmet with price unaffected, with no spill over into secondary markets.  I cant. 

Bottom line is price reflects wider supply/demand of the market.  Whatever shenanigans in the daily price action, if buyers cant acquire the product they require they will raise the price until their demand is met.  So the silver price approximates to supply/demand.  If as claimed its suppressed, there's either huge unmet demand that just accept not obtaining their product, or supply that continues to under sell their product.  Its irrational and nonsense this state would be stustained. 

I see AG:£ has ticked up today, despite AG:$ falling.  This is on the back of £:$ falling, in turn because $ is stronger today.  I cant tell you why that is (DXY hit new yearly high, steadily increasing - so much for the weak dollar story). 

So much to say, marco economic outlook has a lot of twists and turns, whatever you think inflation is, either in UK or US. 

8 minutes ago, sixgun said:

A national crypto is simply a blockchain currency. It is the medium of exchange. This could be backed by the full faith and credit of Timbuctoo or wherever - there again each unit of the blockchain could be backed by allocated or unallocated assets such as gold. When the fiat system blows up, is another fiat system going to be accepted? Currencies are about confidence. Today currencies are a confidence trick.

There is no way to back a currency with any asset without trust.  Applies with a blockchain backed by assets, you must trust the authority giving new issuance has recieved and secured the asset, and there is no rehypotecation.  You do not know, absolutly, 100% certainty, there isnt any manipulation or false information, you rely on trust.  The entire premise of blockchain based crypto currency is to be trustless, that the algorithm and cryptography ensures there is only the stated issuance.  So a national digital currency and a national crypto currency would be two very different beasts. 

double.

1 hour ago, Kman said:

...

I think where you and others get it wrong is you think money = has to be a store of value, but what about its role as a tool? that is more important to the global ecomony, growth and trade; its aspect as a tool that is its value

If you have a gold standard then you gain a store of value but lose its value as a tool

That's it exactly.  Our current money is a poor store of value over long term, no would dispute that except how to define the term.  However we have many other assets to serve that purpose better, so we shift our store of value to those for long term.  History shows repeatedly that hard money depreciates due to inflation over longer term too, so its not a solution to that problem anyway. 

12 hours ago, HerefordBullyun said:

There is lot of articles speculating they have, I dont doubt that havent considered it, and some saying its coming next year. They already have a petro yuan, 

https://goldalliance.com/blog/is-china-planning-to-attack-the-dollar-with-a-gold-backed-yuan/

https://kingworldnews.com/china-will-launch-a-digital-gold-backed-currency-at-the-start-of-2022/

It would seem logical they do as the greenifying of the oil sector continues.

What you have to understand and your talking to is an IT guy, and a bloke who knows a thing or two from serving in the forces,

Tech is a double edged sword, it can be used for the good or used as weapon, But also nothing in tech is foolproof including crypto. Its exploitable.

So if you had something thats exploitable why wouldnt you give it a secondary layer of being backed by a hard trackable asset like gold.

The chinise are one of the cleverest harding working race on the planet, but the downside they rule by fist.

If you want to say by 2025 that china  will have a gold backed CDBC Im happy to take the bet if you have the khunas - say 10oz of silver?

It's not about the tech (also in IT), its about the thesis of backing currency in anything other than fiat.  If a country wants to back their currency, chose one otherwise it  undermines the the backing.  Using both gold and crypto says you dont trust the other method, so which one isnt to be trusted?  Not really a sound foundation for a national currency.  More likely "digital" currency is just another form of fiat, no backing of either, because that gives the nation monetary and fiscal flexibility that a hard  currency denies them. 

6 hours ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Correct china is already looking at a digital gold backed yuan.

Is there evidence of this?  And i dont mean from goldbug youtube speculation, actual commentry from general economic or news sources.  I have no doubt Chinese move to a digital currency, just not gold backed.  If we mean a crypto based digital currency, it would be a contradiction as the crypto algo secures and gives confidence to the currency, gold or silver arent necessary. 

1 hour ago, Kman said:

So many reasons this is fantasy

China are known to manipulate their own currency to be favourable to them

Why would any government want to tie their hands with a gold standard?

The world runs on the repo market and eurodollar system, liquidity being king; how liquid is a gold standard? wouldnt  it be devastatingly deflationary 

How much global debt is there that needs to be paid in dollars? not gold yuan, dollars

If no more eurodollar system no more needs for treasuries as collateral, governments would be totally f**cked no? its impossible to pay off the debt you need to issue more, how would that work on a gold standard, who is going to forgive these debts?

Its like saying we could all switch to green energy tomorrow and leave fossil fuels behind, you need to ignore all the realities of the world to think thats possible

It's about people who want their personal ideals on economics to be real, even if the world has moved to a different place with different rules.  The debt that the world lives on wont disappear, its how economies function now.  No country would return to hard money, except out of desperation - their control and currency is in such a poor state that they need to secure it with something.  

1 hour ago, sixgun said:

Maguire said yesterday that he is trying to source 100 tonnes of silver for immediate delivery. He is coming back to the UK after filming the silver delivery in the Kinesis vault in Liechtenstein. 
Says that the refinery they have been dealing with in Russia only has 70 tonnes available for the rest of the year and that is for everyone.

If he want's more than available in the market, Maguire needs to offer a higher price.  That's the nature of markets, bid more to make more supply become available. What he is saying is he doesn't want to pay more than the current price.  I know a man in kitchen trade, they have dealt with recent "supply shortages" by overbidding for all their materials, suddenly they have no supply problem and fitting as fast as they can.  I dont see why silver would be any different. 

40 minutes ago, Minimalist said:

I can assure you that my experience recently when purchasing goods account to that rate of inflation, particularly organic items, especially beef.

So you don't have a source and use one single, anecdotal data point. 

Well i'm convinced, i shall re-evaluate my entire macro-economic thesis on the basis of the price of organic beef. 

31 minutes ago, Minimalist said:

Really, mis-read? PCE allows the substitution OUT of items that rise “too much” in price. I beg you to insinuate there is little to no inflation out there.

I simply asked where Burry made the revelation. I follow the twitter account and there was no such claim.  There was something about the PCE number cutting the top 31% of expenditure, from a WSJ article.  The account has been nuked again so we'll never know, unless you provide some source to the claim of 32% inflation?

28 minutes ago, Kman said:

To what extent do you think rising prices could be due to supply/demand issue rather than a currency issue?

Inflation you would think is too much currency chasing too few good/services

But if theres too few goods/services because of a supply issue (lockdowns) then it should be transitory (assuming supply returns) because it has nothing to do with the currency supply

You can look at lumber which really shot up to ridiculous levels but has cooled off a lot now 

Also oil went up ~70% since last summer, doesnt look like repeating that.  Feeds into so much manufacturing, industry, produce prices, when increases don't repeat, that inflationary pressure subsides. 

55 minutes ago, Minimalist said:

The Fed says CPI is 5.9% so far. Yes, they are correct in the sense that it excludes consumer basic needs. However, the real stats show its around 32% on the PCE (personal consumption expenditure). Add that to the artificial stats, its clearly, at least 35%.

These are figures being exposed by Michael Burry on Twitter. The Fed is actively lying to Americans and suppressing the Silver and Gold price by pricing in CPI and other artifical measurments to present to the financial markets that the strength of the Fed dollar is strong, when it clearly isnt.

 

Where did he expose this?  Did you mis-read a highlight from WSJ about the make up of the PCE number? 

As its unusual size, makes sense they might outsource production rather than create a new production line. 

16 minutes ago, LawrenceChard said:

Which are the quirky sites you are thinking of?, and if any are mine / ours, I would be interested in knowing what makes you think of them as quirky.

The main one on Chards is forgetting filters when you go back.  There's been a few others over the years, but either fixed or i dont notice anymore.  Its a good one really.  

Other sites have some issues with mouse over, while others cant align text or assume you will have full/wide window. 

42 minutes ago, LawrenceChard said:

That is interesting. On Vice.com, and elsewhere the founder of BbP is quoted as saying:

"Halliday-Stein is a British billionaire and entrepreneur who fell into the gold trading business back in 2008 when he was looking to buy a "modest amount" of the shiny stuff himself. It was at the height of the financial crisis, and Halliday-Stein—who was keeping an eye on emerging business models—was on the lookout for a new opportunity. While surfing the net for gold and silver, he soon became disillusioned by the subpar websites and customer services he encountered."

... and similar.

We don't seem to have come a long way!

🙂

To be fair the BBP website is one of the best out there in my opinion.  Many are quirky in some way.  (sorry). 

I've watched CNBC off and on over the years.  Good source of general market sentiment, analysts, fund manager and CEO views, piped into the corner of the room.  

30 minutes ago, Minimalist said:

Word Bank former Afgan President brother (below)
https://swn.af/en/2021/04/29/president-ghanis-brother-owns-significant-stakes-in-mineral-processing/

'The Pentagon task force has already started trying to help the Afghans set up a system to deal with mineral development. International accounting firms that have expertise in mining contracts have been hired to consult with the Afghan Ministry of Mines, and technical data is being prepared to turn over to multinational mining companies and other potential foreign investors. The Pentagon is helping Afghan officials arrange to start seeking bids on mineral rights by next fall, officials said.'
https://www.mining.com/1-trillion-motherlode-of-lithium-and-gold-discovered-in-afghanistan/

The link from 2010 illustrates my point, it begins "A recently unearthed 2007 United States Geological Service survey appears to have discovered nearly $1 trillion in mineral deposits in Afghanistan...".  So many articles on the subject are from that time, it always $1tn from a survey in the mid 00's.  10 years on, where are the more recent surveys, updated estimates, and where are the mines?  Nothing but piecemeal, low level operations to raise pocket money for local warlords.