Martlet

8 minutes ago, dicker said:

Getting back onto Gold in GBP - what will gold hit if Russia annexes Ukraine?

Russian gunships have been deployed in the Black Sea as well as the troops and heavy armour at the border....

 

It'll spike up. It always goes up in response to geopolitical shocks. Then in following weeks it will level off to trend. 

1 hour ago, GoldenGriffin said:

When money is created, does it sometimes sit unallocated by default against gold and this is reflected in gold going up and then, when it's allocated to something else, gold then goes down and that something else goes up?

And sometimes the money creation is allocated straight away and doesn't impact on gold?

Money creation has zero direct effect on gold.  It springs forth into accounts for institutions to give liquidity and hopefully lend.  The amount might have an indirect effect on gold, depending on how much money and a dozen or more other economic or geopolitical factors. And speculation, never forget the daily (even weekly) prices are much about traders speculating what will happen next. 

I say hopefully lend, because having all that money sitting on bank balance sheets means its not doing much useful. Part of the reason we haven't seen much inflation the past decade is a lot of the liquidity is sloshing around bank balance sheets, not flowing out to the wider economy.

1 hour ago, OldCoin said:

yep I gathered that's what you meant, and likewise. Thanks for making the point though.

As for the markets and to bring this back to topic, to give an idea of how they don't correlate to reality when in regards to silver. Based on a inflation adjusted equivalent to it's all time high in USD silver's. That ATH to quote David Morgan is $400 when you factor inflation. I think I'm starting to see whats going on, but it's no guarantee the world will ever reflect true reality.

Yet the market price of silver has consistently and persistently stayed around the levels it has for years.  That is reality.  

Consider a basic TV would have cost around £250 in 1980, today a superior basic model would be £150.  Adjusted for inflation it should be £800-£1000.  Are prices of TV not reflecting reality or are they fair market price?  Not everything goes up in line with inflation.  

So apply Occam's razor, has the entire silver market been suppressed, year after year, in an open market with thousands of participants looking for advantage, or is it fair market value? 

45 minutes ago, Wileyfox said:

Thanks @sixgun. I'm on the telegram group and find it useful though it is easy for information to get lost.

 

I have a bit of time off this week and wanted to post a train of thought that came to me in thinking about Kinesis from an investment point of view. I am more used to investing in mining stocks and so I came up with an analogy to describe Kinesis in terms of a mine.

Would be better to think of it as a private bank.  People invest in the bank providing service (KVT), while them and other hold some assets on deposit (KAU, KAG).  People who've deposited spend some of their money incurring fees, that goes back to the depositors and investors.  Its recycling the depositors own money, with 0.45% inefficiency.  Its competing in a tough market, where so many card services offer discounts rather than fees to the card holder. 

11 minutes ago, Derv said:

Which law , civil or criminal !?   😉

Criminal. 

Just complete the census, its no big deal, the authorities know all about you in a day if you ever become a person of interest.

Because the ancient aliens that created us through genetic experimentation, put in our genes the desire for gold, to collect and horde it for their return.  Or something like that. 

Looking at the tea leafs, noted the 0.768 fib at ~$1757 seemed to offer last resistance during the past week was a hard ceiling today.  That cant be good. 

4 hours ago, sovereignsteve said:

Yes, I'm curious why EU sellers aren't doing this already. It's been standard practice for UK sellers to sell goods VAT-free for overseas shipment, as long as we've been in the EU. So it must be possible.

Its most likely they simply weren't ready for the change, haven't adjusted their software to remove VAT when location equals UK.  In the case of "VAT-free" silver, technically there isn't any VAT to remove, they are still liable for the margin VAT locally so will have to add that. 

On 18/02/2021 at 14:17, Spark268 said:

iShares has been caught issuing shares without buying the underlying metal before, and got fined by the SEC for it. I think it was for their gold ETF.

its glaring how these prospectii, written by GBP 1000 a day lawyers do not define, in Materialised Form exactly what the silver price is - it is deliberately left vague yet seems to track the paper price.

Over the past few weeks, the premium on physical silver price has been up to 70% higher,  yet these have not been incorporated into the ETF price - meaning that ETF holders have lost out since end Jan.

 

Retail 1oz coin price is not same as prices in the wholesale market.  Bairds will sell you a kilo for ~5% in volume. 

4 hours ago, HelpingHands said:

What about if negative interest rates arrive though?  

I don't believe negative rates are going to happen in UK, and neither would it appear does the market. Haven't work elsewhere and cause more problems.  And if they where to go down that route, we know its 6 month away. 

£ will creep upwards as we come out of recession and economy restarts.  Gold:$ been in a downward trend since August and probably continue as risks subside.   $1750 / £1230 by end of Q1.

38 minutes ago, LawrenceChard said:

Duncan Chard's theory is that the hedge funds who have been / are under pressure may have started this rumour to take pressure off themselves, also possibly as their next play / market manipulation.

My theory is the silverbugs jumped on the anti-short bandwagon, using the WSB hype to pump the metal.  Could see all the same old arguments.  Either way both silver and GME have failed to launch today, along with a XRP pump attempt in crypto. So the same outcome in the end, hedge funds off the hook?

1 hour ago, sovereignsteve said:

why would it? if the US buyers were going to get in big time they could easily have done so this morning before US markets opened.

Stocks may trade out of hours, not commodities or futures so much.  As SLV and ETFs track the underlying asset they'd be waiting until the main market open, or risk being wildly out. This is one reason this pump is likely to fail, because it has to affect multiple assets, its not as simple as buying one stock. 

The WSB pumpers dont want physical, that'll be snapped up by existing silver stackers.  WSB's will buy the wide range of ETF and derivatives they can get their hands on, which will pump everything but also spread their firepower too thin.  I'm eyeing up the 3x ETF, enjoy the rollercoster, just remember to get off. 

9 minutes ago, Robda1986 said:

I'm confused so if no dealers are selling till tomorrow and there is a hault on slv's being traded how is the price moving surely it would have reached its level and just flat lined or am I being stupid and missing something? 

Asian markets are open. 

27 minutes ago, silversky said:

A pound an ounce open indicates a nervous market.  I suspect there will be a concerted effort to smash it down before it gets to the London fix.

They dont need to, let it pump and dump when the retail buyers run out of puff.  Higher the top the bigger the gains on shorting. 

2 hours ago, RoughDog said:

So German eBay has always worked different from UK eBay?

Because prior to this brexit, VAT was included in the eBay price.  Never known eBay to show prices excluding VAT.

Seems like a double VAT rip-off to me.

No more Euro purchases from eBay from me.

Yes, would seem suppliers dont want to adjust prices to ex-VAT for UK market.  It's early days, we'll see if this is losing them substantial sales and they adjust or they just write it off.  

33 minutes ago, Connor said:

And you would think silver casting grain would be vat free but just a bit more controlled in where it is sold, to allow manufacturers a chance to make sales at a reasonable price. The government makes 20% when someone buys grain then another 20% when that same product is sold after finishing? That's just criminal. 

That is not how it works.  The manufacturer can claim back the VAT for goods and services they buy.  Only the end consumer pays the VAT. 

1 hour ago, Kman said:

Apparently storming the capital is only worth a 1% move up in gold and 1% down in spx500

Weird market 

 

Nothing's happened, the pictures tell a different story to the breathless tales of rioting written.  I've honestly seen more dangerous New Years Eve parties.

25 minutes ago, LoveThemCoins said:

I assume you are basically saying tax evasion is rife.

Avoid dear chap. And yes it is.

8 hours ago, silversky said:

Edit: ask your Tory MP to pass your letter on to Rishy for his consideration.  He has a close relationship with the mint and may view their continued good business as valuable.  Point out that almost all silver in the EU is traded at greatly reduced or zero VAT for European citizens and that until the 1st almost all Royal Mint Silver bought by British Citizens has been bought under this scheme.  It is simply wrong for British Citizens to pay the most for their own legal tender.

Suggest that highlighting a tax avoidance loophole is not the best argument. Nor is making claims without evidence - do you know how much Royal Mint sells through Europe?  The case to make is the simple one on legal tender and secondly that silver bullion should be treated same as gold or other investments, and made exempt from VAT.

19 minutes ago, BackyardBullion said:

Its optional though unlike the UK VAT rules

 

The option in the first section is to use the IOSS one stop shop instead of registration in each country importing to (may be favourable VAT in some countries...).  The option in the second section is to use the IOSS the customer will incur the custom agent fee, which we know is not a commercially sustainable for <€150. 

End of day this rule was coming anyway and Brexit means HMRC has implemented earlier. The only difference is stated customs fee, which I expect will be in place for those that dont register in practice.  

2 hours ago, BackyardBullion said:

The important distinction is that in the new EU rules there is a €10,000 threshold for registration within the EU and no compulsory registration for non-EU organisations with the member state collecting any tax due upon import from outside the EU to the EU.

It's a much more robust and fair system (as fair as tax can be anyway).

Check section 2, its the same protocol as HMRC.  With the additional point this is deliberate to protect EU sellers.  It also notes failure to use the prescribed service will mean customer paying the customs agent, not expressed by HMRC, though I cant see how else they'd handle these packages. 

Now I'm wondering what the rules are for goods worth over £135... I've re-read the VAT guidance and the support documents and seems completely overlooked.  So a company sending goods of £136 dont have to register with HMRC and VAT will be handled at point of import?

37 minutes ago, KeithSilver said:

...

Or are people worried about making money on buying low, importing and selling at UK prices?

Yes, in a nutshell.