Martlet

33 minutes ago, AndrewSL76 said:

I've been reading this thread with interest. Nothing to add to it which would be helpful (sorry) - just a thanks to you all for the research and sharing of wisdom.

My overriding question in all of this is 'if you voted to leave the EU, did you expect this sort of change?' This is not me poking the Brexit nest with a stick - just a genuine question. In the balance of ending free movement and 'taking back control', is the ending of VAT/free trade a weight too much, or is it actually bearable and you are happy to be in this position now? 

Have to point out there is no ending of VAT.  It may have originated with EEC membership but no way £130bn revenue is about to be given up.  The argument has been made that we can control the rates, what is or isnt VAT rated, not that we could see VAT go.  At most we'll see some tinkering in the margins (like silver bullion treated same as gold).  

Also I think we need to remember that VAT is only low for silver due to a loophole.  The vast majority of local silver market is VAT applied through the main dealers.  Its not really something that affects many consumers, they dont see VAT so wont see the difference. 

3 minutes ago, Rll1288 said:

oooh... isn't that smuggling? :-)..... I am sure they will let it go for a while then retrospectively charge VAT on it... they have on other things

Under the terms of the agreement its possible its a legal outcome.  Its a bit of a mess really.  But we get to keep some more fish, so thats good. 

2 hours ago, Pete said:

What is the catch ?
Suppose there is a forum member living in Ireland, say Dublin.
This member can still purchase silver from the EU at low / zero VAT as nothing has changed w.r.t. Brexit.
Once the silver has been received, if the member wants to sell it, can it legally be classified as secondhand ?
Shipping to the UK there is a tariff for secondhand silver which is 0% VAT.
Most likely our authorities would automatically charge 20% but if it is correctly described as secondhand and the correct harmonised code is declared, they haven't got any excuse for not refunding the VAT.

An Irish dealer may be able to simply sell ex-VAT as there are no import checks into rest of UK.  

3 minutes ago, ChrisF said:

Good luck, I think you should be fine by the looks of it though.  I'm awaiting an Assault Exercise bike from Rogue.eu that cost me best part of £1000.  Its not shipped yet but preparing to ship.  I just hope they will ship before the 1st or Im looking at £200 VAT charge which will be most unwelcome.  I decided to roll the dice though and if I get charged so be it.  I'll just cry on the inside. 😭

You should be able to have the price reduced by 20%, it will now be ex-VAT export good for the seller.  

10 minutes ago, BackyardBullion said:

Bottom line, it makes small businesses that were underneath the VAT threshold a minimum of 20% less competitive with their prices at a time when we should be doing everything possible to keep our British businesses and entrepreneurs competitive. 

Well advice there is to look again at registering for VAT, taking advantages small/sole trader businesses can, for a small paperwork overhead. 

35 minutes ago, pablitto83 said:

And also, is anyone aware when those new regulations will be expected to be  officially released? So it will be clear? At some point it needs to be sorted. Maybe dealers known more, as they import bullion from rest of the world in bulk

The new regulations have been released.  Many have been under the impression VAT would be included (myself included), that there is a last minute changes in free trade agreement, but this isnt the case as this was not part of the FTA.  We leave the single market and custom union on 31st Dec, becoming an independent trading nation with all the import regulations that apply.  Rules will be the same as if importing from US or elsewhere, except the tariffs applied (zero, because of FTA).   Because of some of the new rules smaller European business may simple not want trade at all.

56 minutes ago, AppleZippoandMetronome said:

All any of us can do is speculate at the moment because you are right - it is going to take a while before we actually know.

Well a week at most.  I've noted there has been nothing mentioned about VAT harmonisation, so i'm assuming there will be none.  I think we've been waiting for the deal to give new information, i'm coming to realisation its not going to and the current guidance was always going to be in place whatever the outcome.  Goods will be sold "ex"VAT and VAT applied on import. The best course of action will be to gently nudge MPs that removing VAT from investment silver would be a good idea.

I've not read anything about VAT harmonisation which indicates the same model as used for US imports (pay VAT at import).  VAT registered business will be able to claim that back. 

10 hours ago, very452001 said:

Anywhere know where I can order Silver or Platinum VAT free and get delivery before Brexit or is it too late?

Coininvest are doing last orders for UK.  

Wouldn't touch goldsilver.be anymore, if you have a problem they dont care.  Coininvest were very responsive and helpful when i has a courier mix up. 

5 hours ago, Hunter87 said:

So all he has to do is serve 5 years then he is off the hook? 

All he has to do is give up the gold or what happened to it and he's out. He's not in jail on a conviction but contempt of court.

2 hours ago, kamik0zi said:

Something to do with the $900bn stimulus package just approved, perhaps?

https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/world/americas/2020-12-21-us-legislators-reach-deal-on-900bn-stimulus-package/

Shouldn't pin too much hope on the stimulus.  Its less than half what was dished out earlier in year and is more targeted (cash goes to poor income households).  

16 hours ago, Minimalist said:

Against the company… Right?

The articles do not make that clear either way.  I fail to see the importance, Tommy Thompson was held in contempt of court for failing to produce the gold or its whereabouts.  Bottom line is, this case has nothing to do with the state, its private individuals in contract dispute.

26 minutes ago, Minimalist said:

You can go down that legal terminology route all you want. Its his Gold whether you like it or not.

That manifestly isnt the case, there is litigation from investors on how much was recovered and who owns what.  

Reading further, it seems he was paid $12m to do the salvage work, found lots of gold but the investors were never paid back. So they sued to recover the gold or proceeds of their sale. They got some back but some gold is unaccounted for, so case against Thompson continues. He refuses to cooperate, putting him in contempt of court and in jail. 

2 hours ago, Minimalist said:

Im not convinced the wait game will pay off. Hes a caged slave until he hands over his property to the state and no other paper pushing or political correctness can cover up that fact.

According to article, he was paid to recover gold and kept some for himself.  He's in a private contract with an individual and the courts are enforcing that. 

Flirting with weekly 50MA, this week will set a new tone if it goes below.  Nothing in the charts indicates support, only macro news wishing for stimulus.

2 hours ago, Kman said:

I've been looking at the gold chart and I've drawn in something I really like

I've always had the blue lines but I zoomed out and looked at the bigger picture

 

Break of the support gives a target of ~1650.

Any agreement will see a positive response to sterling, probably to around the pre-referedum level around 1.45. That's about 10% up, anything more is unrealistic.  A failure to agree a practical trade arrangement will see 10% drop to 1.20.  The market has been rising, indicating optimism of a sensible agreement being reached. 

30 minutes ago, Stacktastic said:

I cant see why or how Jewellery as an investment would be down this year, but you may be right as people don't have the cash to be buying it or getting engaged or married, or as a gift (esp. in lockdown countries). I thought a lot of asians traded in jewlerry rather than bullion? With a weak worldwide Fiat system would that not increase, especially if they rely on the dollar?

Few factors, first in the face of downturn people sold gold earlier in the year, not in position to buy.  Thats why they hold it in the first place, to sell in bad times. Second, if you earn less you can afford to buy less, and if prices rise the volume sales drops for the same value, which impacts demand. Third cultural effects, noted in video 10g bar is popular, it may not be a case of buying smaller, you simply have to save longer to afford the conventional size (this would be applicable for gifting). 

JP Morgan spoofing is evidence of short term price front running, where the target is scalping small moves in either direction. It's not evidence for wholesale, long period price manipulation. 

24 minutes ago, Stacktastic said:

And look who miraculously appears on Kitco yesterday HSBC analyst talking about jewellery sales affecting prices in middle east, China & emerging countries. Cant say I know a lot about how prices are manipulated, but I smell BS. I would like to see a serious JP Morgan type case against a lot of these banks, Now that would send prices to the moon! 
 

Interviewee states jewellery is down 50%, and thats half of physical demand, so about 25% drop. Verifiable data must be available for that, so check rather than write off because it doesn't match up to expectation.  If you dont know how prices are manipulated, how can you know they are?

6 hours ago, HerefordBullyun said:

It's not just that. It's being manipulated absolute fact. Oil cooper up all commodities are up less PMs. There is massive shorting going on in the paper markets. These criminals are a disgrace and don't expect anything to get better when the US market opens. The cartel are in cahoots.

Gold is a hedge against risk.  Vaccine news means economic risks are likely to reduce.  There's likely reduced stimulus next year as economy recovery takes effect.  Also that recovery will increase demand for commodities that are consumed, so prices rise.   

2 hours ago, dicker said:

USD strength has hit gold price in GBP as well as a drop in the price of gold.  I thought Gold would be higher now - given the stimulus packages printing more money.  
 

Pethaps post the US election it might rise or may even take till Q1

The stimulus is exhausted now, waiting on politics in US to determine what next package will be.  If Democrat get their way, its likely to be more but targeting business, states, unemployment, with less direct cash to people. This is not as inflationary or giving cash for people to drop on assets.  Markets seem to be expecting this, hence $ strengthening. Though strengthen is a stretch, more like no longer weakening. 

1 hour ago, MancunianStacker said:

BOE wrote to all the retail banks on Monday I believe to see if they’d be “able to cope” if negative interest rates were applied. If that’s not a sign for cash soon to be exiting savings plans and possibly into gold, I don’t know what is. Also to avoid means testing to claim other benefits!! 

I read it as due diligence.  The banks systems may not be ready for neg rates, nor their balance sheets.  They haven't done much in Japan, EU or Switzerland, no reason to expect a change in UK, except to reduce value of £ (which is probably main reason for EU persisting with the policy).  I recall the deputy governor speaking against them last month.

40 minutes ago, 272 said:

I suppose a lot unknowns around the scale of the impacts of Brexit, economic consequences of 2nd /3rd waves of Covid and the US elections? I'm guessing November will provide a clearer picture 🤔. I don't know about anyone else but I'm being sent bullish circulars from some dealers predicting how gold is only going to go up! 

Brexit is a far bigger factor to £:Au price.  A deal will see rise in £, no deal a drop.  Covid and US factors will not have a complex impact.  If gold is going up because $ is weak, £ will be going up against the $ too, so £:Au probably track sideways. 

2 hours ago, Zaurett said:

Called CPM and they very haughtily told me that the credit report indicated a score lower than what they would “deem acceptable for these kinds of goods”. I asked if they could give me any further information as to what criteria they base this on and was told that all they could tell me was that they use a company called Graydon to carry out their credit checks and that they (CPM) “wouldn’t share credit check information with a customer”. Honestly couldn’t get me off the phone fast enough, even to the point of interrupting me to tell me that they couldn’t deal with me as I had failed their credit check. Again, not even sure what’s going on here but needless to say I won’t be contacting them further other than to issue a right to erasure request. If I can’t buy things from them, I don’t see why they should continue to hold my contact and payment information.

Too bad, they may have to under GDPR articles 13-15, provide you with information about the data they have on you and access to it.  Then invoke article 17 to be erased. 

2 hours ago, dicker said:

I think with a strengthening dollars money managers are rebalancing from Gold to USD as a safe haven.  My guess is that they can see more upside in being in USD than Gold.  
 

Best

Dicker

And just being liquid in this period.  Everyone likes to talk up as yet non-existent inflation, over looking thats a medium-long term risk.  Sensible money might want to sit out a month or so and see what opportunities arise as we go into election and winter.