Kman

1 minute ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Your missing the point. Profit margins I work in the oil industry.

You said "Oil is used mainly for plastics and pharmaceutical industry"  that isn't true as per the US government data 

Profit margins may be better but does a company like Shell or BP make more from the plastics and pharmaceutical industry than transport? you would need to show me a breakdown of profits because that doesn't seem right 

25 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Oil has a misconception also. People think it's profit margin is from cars and petroleum. It's not. Oil is used mainly for plastics and pharmaceutical industry and that's where the profits lie.

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php#:~:text=We use petroleum products to,intermediate and end-user goods.

1. Transportation 68%
2. Industrial 26%
3. Residential 3%
4. Commercial 2%
5. Electric power < 1%

3 hours ago, Pete said:

I am still struggling with this chart.
Why did silver rise so dramatically ( up 60% ) over the summer only to loose half these gains relatively quickly ?
I assume the big players that drive prices maybe realised their "ill gotten gains" using an "algorithm" but others who bought nearer the peak, believing silver is destined once again for loftier heights, will be sitting on close to 30% paper losses today.
 

If you overlay DXY(green) on silver(pink) and flip it vertical

They've only really decoupled as opposites and fallen together in November

People pulling out of fear assets to go into recovery possibly (incredibly optimistic) 

You can see price spiked 50% in a short space of time in 2008 then had a down period, I think we're in history repeating and the highlighted area, short term down but long term up. 

12 minutes ago, Derv said:

Bank helicopter money in three weeks then ?

Commercial banks are the ones that can create money and inflation through loose lending

They're going to force deflation/yields lower by not lending and then profit from it through the bonds they're buying and scooping up cheat assets

55 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Biden will have to start spending as them Dems will be squealing for money wall and main Street

Biden can spend money but not create it, that's the big problem

Ultimately Biden and the Fed are powerless because they can't force banks to lend, not domestically/commercially and not in the repo market; remember it was problems in the repo market that caused what happened in March

This is the best video I've found so far talking about how the repo market works, I would suggest everyone watch it 

Latest H8 data - https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/current/default.htm

They aren't loaning but they are buying 90 billion worth of bonds in 3 weeks

I've been looking at the gold chart and I've drawn in something I really like

I've always had the blue lines but I zoomed out and looked at the bigger picture

48 minutes ago, Midasfrog said:

It took gold from 40,000 BC until the year 2020 to reach a peak value of £1579 , Bitcoin has only been around for 12 months but managed to increase by that amount in a week somethings not adding up 😲

I like gold because it looks and feels the same when you hold it even when its value drops .

Millions of bitcoin, billions of oz of gold 

Patience and not being reactionary are good but I think they're better put to use on entries

Better to miss the boat than get on and sink

Record money going into stocks - https://www.ft.com/content/91cb3990-7ace-41f0-9939-d7fe8d0cab02

"it was the largest weekly haul by equity funds since EPFR has been collecting the data, as well as the second-biggest intake by US stock funds since 2000."

When the S&P is already at record highs during a pandemic on the verge of a mass insolvency crisis.. unless these are all traders this is truly the dumbest of the dumb money

I've heard big financial intuitions like to swap out of positions March, June, September and December to make their quarter books look less risky and that it can cause a bottle neck in the repo market inducing sell offs, I looked at charts and there appears to be a lot of merit to it 

I could post dozens of charts but you can look for yourselves, here's just a few - we know what happened in March but you can see the S&P500 just before June and September pump up a couple weeks before selling off

The Japanese yen which is sensitive to US bond weakens then spikes

It's less clear on the dollar DXY but where did it stop falling and strengthen: June and September 

The difference being after September it firmed up too, so when it strengthens in December will that be the start of a new trend up, could be 

My prediction is stocks, bitcoin, oil up for the next week before it getting very ugly for them in December - dollar and bonds up

20 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-testing-patience-toeing-line-now

One for you @Kmanmore charts to get your teeth into

I have a very clear vision of what's going to happen

There isn't money printing there's a dollar shortage, banks aren't lending, it's going to cause markets to crash, the dollar to spike, gold to be fire saled as collateral 

Look at the relationship between treasury inflation yields gold. When there's liquidity issues and the dollar spikes what happens: 2008 and the start of 2020 - sends gold down

We're going to get that sooner than later, that will be the opportunity to buy an etf or miners 

And just like in March when they've squeezed out all the weak hands they will scoop up the rewards like gold which was bought back up to $1620 quicker than it sold off 

You talked about gold cartel earlier because the price moved 1%, they're going to move gold down 10% +

Just now, stackspot said:

It's all gobbledygook to me

Either way it's a stitch-up  🙂

Basically when the federal reserve "money print" instead of giving actual dollars all they do is credit an account held with themselves that can't be spent aka bank reserves

It's like someone saying there's no shortage of gold because there's asteroids with tons of the stuff, yes there are but as long as it's totally segregated from real world supplies then makes no difference

Being stuck at sea desperately thirsty, yes you're surrounded by water but it makes no difference

Bank reserves make no difference to the money supply and aren't really money

9 hours ago, Stu said:

https://www.brookings.edu/research/fed-respo
 

The FED is lending to ever entity in its sphere. It may not be physically printing it is buying  bonds, assets and securities at a tremendous rate.

Most notably to me, they are additionally making dollars available to foreign banks to ease liquidity. These are troubling signs. 

 

If they need to provide help to foreign central banks because of illiquidity that suggests there aren't enough dollars rather than they've been money printing

https://www.federalreservde.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_liquidityswaps.htm they can't print money so I'm 99.99% sure the liquidity process is just swapping dollars held from one account at the Fed to another 

"The dollars that the Federal Reserve provides are deposited in an account that the foreign central bank maintains at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York

When the foreign central bank loans the dollars it obtains by drawing on its swap line to institutions in its jurisdiction, the dollars are transferred from the foreign central bank's account at the Federal Reserve to the account of the bank that the borrowing institution uses to clear its dollar transactions"

The Fed currently purchase 80 billion in treasuries every month doing QE from primary dealers but they do so by crediting collateral accounts held at the Fed with dollars that can't be spent

They did purchase corporate bonds but they did so with dollars provided by the government, I can't find the chart but I think they stopped doing that in July or August, https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm1190 the government recently asked for that money back

If they just printed dollars why would the government need to provide them with actual dollars

There isn't money printing, that's the pied piper song of the Federal Reserve to trick people into spending because they think the inflation boogeyman is coming

Nothing definitive but interesting to take note of

Looking at simple moving averages the 100 day has crossed over the 50, not a positive sign

Price has been stuck under the 50 other than the break above around the election

The chart for silver is looking very much the same

On 19/11/2020 at 18:51, HerefordBullyun said:

Not to quote the Genghis khan quote. But the money printing will continue until morale improves....🤣🤣🤣

Who is money printing? 

57 minutes ago, KDave said:

Having just read up on it quickly yes I think so.

Assuming there is enough excess oil speculation via futures for Jan 2021 (from ETF's for example) - that increases demand for oil in the future, producers meet that demand at the agreed price, then when time comes for the ETF's to sell the contracts no one in the markets want the physical oil at that price, spot prices fall due to increased supply and some of the excess oil goes into storage. Is this basically what happened to USO in April? But in a major catastrophic way.

Yeah I think it works that when you have a contract you have to take physical delivery, if you're a speculator you're hoping you sell your contract before that date but in April either because there was no demand with the lockdown or because they would have lost too much selling, instead they had to pay for it to go into storage

If price has gone up because of vaccine news that seems overly speculative and could push barrels into storage down the line or sold at a loss

Not sure if that will have much negative impact on oil or just the people speculating

3 hours ago, Stacktastic said:

BP is doing well now, its finally going up, but that has a lot to do with oil prices. 
 

@KDave can oil prices rise purely from speculation? 

If so and that pushes oil futures higher but the positive speculation turns out to be misguided, would that cause contango and more oil going into storage instead of being sold at a loss?

2 minutes ago, Auricsstash said:

I have covered this with you before K you want me to show you the little picture of how central banks actually work again??

I don't remember sorry

What I said is factual and correct

If you think you have any interesting information pertaining to central banks of course I'd be interested to see it 

6 hours ago, Auricsstash said:

the fed will print money to make risk assets go up that’s the whole game now and the big money knows this...

They haven't, can't and do not print money

They create bank reserves in collateral accounts, it increases the monetary base but not the monetary supply, banks aren't lending so money is tight

The big money knows nothing good is happening that's why bond yields are staying low and will go lower and banks bought 50*+ billion of treasuries in a week in the latest h8 data

The big money wants gold that's why gold fell the smallest amount In March and easily had the most rapid rebound - it went up faster that it fell

27 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

I think your niave to think the slides in the market prices today are just sell offs. The cartel are in on it. I find it too odd just to see PM's take a kicking.

What's the cartel theory? they can't be very good if they can only get it 1% down for couple hours 🤭

I agree with @Martlet 

Gold is for fear, copper and oil are for hopes of an economic recovery - makes total sense the original vaccine news had some people sell gold positions to move into more optimistic trades

More interestingly bond yields didn't seem interested and that's the opinion that matters, they aren't buying a recovery

Compared to the first vaccine news it barely moved and has gone right back anyway

Robust 

2 hours ago, KDave said:

It has everything to do with shell and BP, and everything else you can invest in. But you have proven that no one is reading our exchange and the thread is otherwise dead 

I'd guess it's more that people haven't taken this level of interest in the monetary system previously, I wouldn't have been able to contribute anything a few weeks ago

But yes if we're hindering Roy going into detail about Shell and BP with his thoughts and research I'd rather shush and learn something 

7 hours ago, KDave said:

all imo. 

I'm going to lay it out again clear as day

From the latest h8 US bank data they bought 52 billion worth of US treasuries in the past week

If yields go up they're worth less, is yields go down they're worth more, so what are they betting on?

Of all the world who is the smartest money? commercial banks, the ones that lend, the ones that can cause inflation, they're betting on deflation by saying inflation you're saying you know better than them

The latest 30 year bond auction had $61b worth of bids but the winning accepted offers totalled $26b, high demand; Is that 61 billion worth of dumb money? bidding on things that will go down soon because of inflation

If government stimulus meant anything for inflation what has it done since March?

If the government start building a bridge of solar farms so what? that doesn't fill in for all the unemployment, all the missing consumer spending and loans, all the business taking out loans to take advantage of that consumer spending, all that healthy currency that should be created 

All that consumer spending that ends up going to imports and circulating the globe, a global dollar shortage ****s the Repo Market and they don't lend to each other and they start liquidating assets and everything crashes

Government spending can't create prosperity and take US GDP levels back to 2019 and 3.5% unemployment and things were deflationary then

Government spending doesn't create new dollars it takes dollars out of the system, there's still a shortage  

The mzm, m2 whatever you want to look at doubled in a decade and oil halved that tells you the money base doubling means nothing for inflation

Inflation is the Feds boogeyman "oo quick go out and spend your money now because it will be worth less tomorrow "  they're trying to trick everyone into spending because spending is what helps the economy

It shouldn't be "don't fight the Fed" it should be "don't fight the commercial banks"

20 minutes ago, KDave said:

A few people are talking about it now, macro voices did a podcast around inflation today as well. 

The only scenario he gives  for inflation is "if the Federal Reserve start to monetise the assets on their balance sheet"

I think that means if the Fed start buying US treasuries directly from the government? correct me if I'm wrong

To do what he describes there would need to be a bill passed by the US government to change what the Fed can and can't do, if that happens we will know about it and yes it's money printing and yes it's time to worry

Until that happens it's deflation which he admits

So it's what will happen vs what will happen if something is done which can't be done.. deflation it is then 

7 hours ago, RichmondStacker said:

We have all these graphs and wall of text but how can we make money from this going forward?

Expect 2007/8 covid vaccine or no

Expect a dollar rally and massive sell off of assets: you wont need to prepare for it particularly as long as you have cash the opportunities will present themselves 

For now carry on as normal and don't worry about it, could be wrong, just don't leave yourself overexposed to anything you think could drop like a stone and not rebound

Personally I'm very interested in profiting from a dollar rally and maybe TLT (us long bonds) or leverage selling the S&P500,  but I will probably wait for the last two to actually start to play out before  putting any money in

Then after the sell off put the money into precious metal related etf/stocks