Kman

One big piece of the puzzle not discussed so far is the repo market ~ mainly because I'm not sure I understand it fully myself

It's a place where banks and financial institutions short term lend to each other (usually 24-48 hours) using collateral. One party swaps US treasuries for the value of the dollar loan + they need to pay back a small amount of interest 

I get the feeling it's like one big game of musical chairs -  as long as the music keeps playing and they're all happy to lend it works but if there's any disruption there's people left standing stranded without cash so they have to liquidate their assets like stocks to get the dollars

This is what happened in March, they stopped lending or they wanted really high interest and it broke down so assets got sold off

I could be wrong but the problem was people wanted to use corporate bonds as collateral which are usually accepted but because of the pandemic and economic uncertainty they were undesirable, I think that's why the Fed started buying corporate bonds because that  underpinned demand for them because at worst you could swap them for bank reserves, you wouldn't be left holding a dud 

If you look at what's happened since economically and the lack of dollar velocity there has to be huge shortage occurring globally

A country like China pre pandemic built up 3 trillion in US treasuries because over the years they put their excess dollars into them, now they need dollars to conduct trade and would probably like to start liquidating some but if they do that then it's obvious there's a massive dollar shortage and everyone will tighten up and not want to trade and the problem gets bigger so they're a bit stuck

People talk about China and selling US debt as a threat or because they want a different reserve currency, they just need dollars

More US QE would suck another x trillion dollars of liquidity out so I don't how careful of that they need to be of that

Hopefully this also illustrates that the Fed aren't all powerful "don't fight the fed", they like to portray that they decide how things go when really they bend to the commercial banks wants and are just trying to placate need so they lend to each other and provide liquidity 

2 hours ago, KDave said:

Looking backwards these past quarters looks deflationary to me, the numbers say the past was deflationary, government have done enough to stop collapse but nothing more. The conditions were deflationary, lockdown, unemployment. People are hoarding and not spending - past deflationary. 

Record levels of liquidity, savings and lower debt load - tomorrow that is inflationary potential. Vaccines and lockdown's ending inflationary. Government investing in infra and windmills - inflationary.

Are we going back in time or forward. Perspective.

Kick the can yes that is all they will do, but with a product at the end. Industrial base (private sector growth) and Infrastructure that can be leveraged. Debt loads borrowed at inconsequential interest rates that will be eroded by inflation.

Eventually inflation will mean rates must rise to offset and the government will no longer be able to borrow and will reign back. Not sure what happens then, end of the welfare state probably and a reset.

Inflation is a tax. "All this borrowing, taxes will have to go up" - Yes

We have to look back to put things perspective and see where  we are

How do we reconcile a graph like this?

If the monetary base rising causes inflation how can inflation go down as it rises? & we aren't talking rising a little it says 1 trillion in 1983 to 21 trillion today

Off the top of my head it's a choice of

1. The graph and figures are wrong
2. The currency created is largely hoarded somewhere
3. The growth of the monetary supply isn't fast enough to fulfil demand/need + pay back previous debt

2 is true with the introduction of bank reserves but than doesn't explain everything pre 2008, 3 makes the most sense but maybe there's an obvious 4th answer I'm missing

Regardless pre 2020 all the signs were already there of deflation, oil, yields, federal funds rate, consumer price indexes, low low low

And how were things in in 2019..

Very good, so If the US had that 2019 and there so no sign of inflation then how in 2021 when we will get nowhere close to that level of economic prosperity no matter if there's a vaccine can there be inflation? you know it doesn't make sense 

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Record levels of liquidity, savings and lower debt load - tomorrow that is inflationary potential. Vaccines and lockdown's ending inflationary. Government investing in infra and windmills - inflationary.

There's no liquidity things are tight, banks would rather hoard treasuries instead of lending

Savings and lower debt? a lot of industries have had to take out large new debt and fire a % of their staff to survive. If you're talking about individuals then savings and  lower debt is super deflationary? You want people working and taking out new debt to the eyeballs spending freely; you're very optimistic if you think consumers are  just waiting to get back at it next year 

As said above nothing can put the economy back to where it was in 2019 with 3.5% unemployment and consumer spending habits and we didn't have inflation then, vaccine tomorrow wont fix the economy

I detailed in my previous post how government spending is not and can't be inflationary

1 hour ago, KDave said:

Wrong QE. Look at government spending now vs then and look at relative increase in monetary supply. Not the same at all. Apples and Oranges. 2009 and 2020. 

Most of the people alive today have never experienced inflation; the FED is not really poaching 'inflation expectations' imo. The FED is increasing liquidity and setting up conditions that will be inflationary via the government. In 12 months time we will see if it worked or not, with or without a big crash in between.

Not really. I get what you are saying, velocity is tanked therefore no inflation so I must be wrong. Yes the velocity of MZM is quote "a relatively accurate predictor of inflation" so the opposite of what you have said. Agreed though in 2020 it has screamed deflation. Very few people are spending, people expecting unemployment, repossession, bankruptcy, business failure - because covid19/lockdown - no velocity. They are hoarding cash and reducing debt. Is this it going to be like that forever then? Is this it for all time? More lockdowns and further falls in velocity? Or in 2021 will we see some of that vastly increased MZM enter the system to chase the same/a much reduced selection of goods and services. 2021 perhaps we see a little more debt take up at historically low rates? Perhaps some more government spending, how about those windmills and HS2?  How large is the monetary base already that will be chasing goods and services and how much larger will it become.  

For the context of inflation MZM is money;

Money of zero maturity (MZM) is a measure of the liquid money supply within an economy. It represents all money that is readily available or in a liquid state. It includes money as cash in hand or money in a checking account, for example. Money in a bank CD would not be counted, however, because it isn't in a state ready to spend or otherwise use immediately.

MZM: Money with zero maturity. It measures the supply of financial assets redeemable at par on demand. Velocity of MZM is historically a relatively accurate predictor of Inflation

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply#Empirical_measures_in_the_United_States_Federal_Reserve_System

Increase of the money base, not the dollar supply

I don't know exactly what the MZM is and how to take it into account because it's more than the M2 but the M2 is supposed to include everything?; Historically it might be a good indication but if it includes bank reserves then after QE started it would skew the velocity 

If you trust it as a measure of inflation it does match up with bond yields as falling since the 80s

I tell you the real problem 

They talk about V shape recovery but they never got that after 2007, not a full one otherwise GDP would have been closer to the red line

If you think about how much extra debt was created since 2007 for a recovery, then you think about it being impossible to recover back to even the post 2007 green line and how much new debts been taken out in 2020

Rising debt needs rising economic growth to spawn new productive loans to pay back the old debt. How can there be inflation without growth? new debts and restructuring it just kicking the can down the road at some point you wont get a new loan. Maybe the government will continue to help failing unproductive businesses but they will just be zombie companies

The US government spending 2 trillion is mostly dead money to plug gaps, billions to airlines like Delta that lost 5.4 billion in Q3, blackhole

Lets pretend covid didn't happen, carrying on normal growth then numbers might have looked like Q2: 19.3  and Q3: 19.4 trillion, real numbers Q2: 17.3 and 18.6 = -2.8 trillion

So at best they plugged that gap with 800 billion less or at worst government spending goes into GDP and it's actually really -4.8 trillion for two quarters 

So next year how much do they need to give just to plug holes to keep companies ticking over and afloat? they could do 2 trillion again start of 2021 and it probably wont be enough

Looking and talking about things like this puts it in perspective for me

22 minutes ago, KDave said:

They printed the money;

 

(MZM - https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/moneyzeromaturity.asp)

"Change from year ago in billions of dollars" scale. That is the first part of the equation.

Second part of the equation and the problem with my position - velocity of money is 'FRED record' low (M2 here), it doesn't matter what scale you pick its setting new lows;

The problem with stimulus so far I think is as you have identified, no one is spending. Perhaps because they are under house arrest, how long will it continue. Deflationary pressure is enormous because money is not circulating, but its not for a lack of supply. 

This is where we - unlike 2009 we have huge amounts of liquidity with inflationary potential already in place. Unlike 2009 we have government ready to fire hose the economy (the threat and likely outcome of additional liquidity/inflationary potential). All we need is velocity, then we get inflation. Then short time later interest rates go up.  

We need inflation. Bond holders will pay in real terms, just like the last time we got to these levels;

The other option is some kind of reset, I don't think they are going there just yet.

What did your man say in the video, he worked out QE 2009 on a ramble without consciously realising;

 "we keep coming back to this point, were missing something - its suppose to be a very simple thing - you print money and you get inflation. That part has not changed - its absolutely true. So if you don't get inflation, then, you didn't print money its really that simple.... we didn't print the money we didn't get the inflation"

QE 2020, it looks like they printed the money to me. I could be wrong, all imo, etc.

No money printing

https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/pageone-economics/uploads/newsletter/2011/201104.pdf

"Critics of QE warn that because QE increases the monetary base significantly, dramatic inflation could
result. Currently, banks hold a large amount of reserves, which constitutes the largest component of the
monetary base. If banks were to loan these reserves, they would effectively increase the money supply. "

The dollars already existed, "For those familiar with money supply measurements, MZM includes the M2 measure less the time deposits" if it includes m2 does it include bank reserves? it seems like it must

You say velocity is awful even though they created and spent it all, doesn't make sense it would be this bad? it makes sense if it contains bank reserves which are innate 

You're proving yourself the monetary base isn't any indication of inflation because most of it isn't money 

We do need inflation, the Federal Reserve wants inflation but they're powerless all they can do is talk it up and hope people spend expecting inflation "we will tolerate higher inflation" you wish Jerome 😛 they can't even get the 2% 

I've learned a bit more, well I have a bit more clarity about what I already did half know

The bond market is the smart money, it's the commercial banks and big financial institutions etc 

There's strong demand at treasury auctions (way beyond what is mandated) bonds are worth less if yields rise, yields rise with inflation, if banks expected inflation they would be putting their money into riskier assets not purchasing safe low risk bonds 

Commercial banks are the ones that would cause inflation with lending, they know  what they're  going to do, buying bonds would be betting against themselves if they planned to loosen up

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10568619/2-17092020-AP-EN.pdf/2eef0072-7156-7bd6-69f2-a8326ea63b82

The EU released a report, -0.2% inflation in the euro area in August and 0.4% in the EU, they aim for 2% and did a large stimulus package, not particular stimulating

7 minutes ago, KDave said:

What do I keep saying, the consumer is dead, they are not going to be involved in this recovery.

You spend £5 in a shop who is making money from that?

It goes right down the supply chain from shop, employees, shipping, factory in China to the farming of the raw products and many more 

The world runs on consumerism and exports

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Lets add up the quarters Q1, Q2, Q3 2020 and see how the balance falls. 

I'm a bit confused are you doing it from that image? the numbers are percent changes

Quote

The Government will be borrowing money at record lows from the market, enabled by the FED/central banks and will print it

I've shown you a few charts for the past decade to show QE hasn't been inflationary

You're a great believer in oil showing inflation and I pointed out 2019 is half of 2011 and the trend has been down and even that you're just able brush off 😛 

Ok I understand more of the money might hit the public or be spent on projects but unless it genuinely stimulates the economy it's just pouring some water into a bucket with a big hole 

Facts, figures, charts, regulations etc is what I would like to see to back up beliefs, hard evidence - if there's no evidence there's no anything

4 minutes ago, KDave said:

Dollars are lent to government from the market sure. How did the dollars get into existence in the the first place, borrowed into existence by the market from banks against their reserves. Debt based system.

Banks will lend so long as the market is willing to borrow, which will be true for as long as rates are kept low. If the FED does not get on with some more QE that isn't going to be for much longer look at the 10 year. 

What is government doing with all that money they are raising from bond sales? Inflation is what they are doing. It doesn't appear overnight. Like I say this is only just getting going;

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-boe/bank-of-england-poised-to-take-bond-buying-plan-above-1-trillion-idUKKBN27L001

 

Spot on yes with the first part

But banks aren't lending, just go on google news tab and search "banks not lending" or "banks tighten loans"

Or look h8 fed data https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/current/default.htm

They aren't creating enough money 

"Can I have a credit card   " Bank: of course you can't

2 minutes ago, KDave said:

To me that chart screams massive crash followed by QE, government borrowing, spending and inflation, not necessarily in that order. That's all there is left unless we get reset. 

It just depends on what the FED does - will it wait for a crash and panic into it, or will it try to head it off. To me it looks like they were trying to head it off, but we will have to see there is a still a good chance of the big crash. 

The full chart again for context

It's squashed to the ground after 2007, they tried to raise it a little bit because they hit an unemployment target of 5%, by late 2019 they realise they were wrong and dropped it again

"Inflation erodes the purchasing power of a bond's future cash flows. Put simply, the higher the current rate of inflation and the higher the (expected) future rates of inflation, the higher the yields will rise across the yield curve, as investors will demand this higher yield to compensate for inflation risk"

Bond yields..

Would no evidence dissuade you? are you certain only because of belief? 

I saw this very interesting data in a youtube series I'm watching, sorry blurry screenshot but not sure where to find the actual thing 

Primary dealers since 2009 have been hoarding collateral, why? what are they scared of

https://www.ccn.com/collateral-why-banks-are-afraid-of-repo-market/ There's not enough to go around

The problem is deflation  

5 minutes ago, KDave said:

I disagree, the federal reserve can and are printing money via government spending, they fear unemployment and that is why they will print and keep dishing out the cash. They have already shown their hand over the last few months look at what has happened - massive amounts of printing and stimulus being given out for nothing, that liquidity is now sitting there ready to move. The FED will eventually turn the risk from deflation to inflation because it is the only way out, its just a matter of when - before or after a big crash. 

The dollars the government got for the bonds already existed

The money the fed use to then buy those bonds from banks and financial institutions is locked in a collateral account and exists as bank reserves, it can't be spent

Fractional reserve lending by commercial banks is money printing but we're in a debt based system, the more money created the more that needs to be created to pay it back 

If the economy isn't going well and banks aren't lending then how is enough new debt going to be created to pay back the debt from when the economy was going well?

How was there a dollar liquidity crisis in March with double the m2 and 3.6% employment, there should have been floods of cash

This screams deflation

3 hours ago, KDave said:

Like I keep saying the next ten years will not be the last ten, inflation is coming as they have told everyone and it's not just talk. 12 months from now we will know one way or the other. 

What about the effective federal funds rate - https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp

"The target for the federal funds rate has varied widely over the years in response to the prevailing economic conditions. It was set as high as 20% in the early 1980s in response to inflation. With the coming of the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009, the rate was slashed to a record low target of 0% to 0.25% in an attempt to encourage growth."

They tried to raise it then realised it was damaging and started QE again and lowered it by January 2020, pre corona impact, pre March liquidity crisis 

They thought when unemployment reached 5-4.8% that would be inflationary so they started raising rates butJanuary 2020 unemployment was down to 3.6% and there was still no inflation, the opposite,  so the federal funds rate needed to be dropped 

The federal reserve cannot cause inflation, they can't print money, the m2 rising is bank reserves, they can't get inflation with the economy looking good at 3.6% unemployment so how are they going to do it with the economy down the toilet

37 minutes ago, KDave said:

Not sure what to make of your graph overlay. My brain is saying "1999 - 2015? increasing M2 is not inflationary really Kman?"  then 2015 happens and suddenly its not inflationary and I agree again.

What happened in 2015? Oil oversupply thanks to shale first thing that comes to mind, but there might be more to it. Its a bit find the narrative that fits though - we have two charts there, one half shows M2 as inflationary the other doesn't.

We need more data, something else to overlay to confirm, its too late for me to work out what it is though. I will get back to you.

2011-2019 m2 double, oil halved 

I'd guess oil (black) came down because of dollar (green) strength 

If the m2 mattered to inflation shouldn't it doubling have meant the other way around, dollar down oil up

It's because a lot of the m2 isn't money it's bank reserves

Commercial banks money print, Federal reserve creates collateral accounts aka commercial bank reserves

"Commerce Department data released Friday showed the personal consumption expenditures price index—the Fed’s preferred measure for inflation—rose 0.2% in September when volatile food and energy prices are excluded, after rising 0.3% in August. The year-on-year rise was 1.5% after 1.4% in August, still far short of the Fed’s 2% target." Nov 02, 2020

They can't even get 2% inflation, the talk of "we will tolerate higher inflation" was just talk 

4 hours ago, KDave said:

If the market is forward looking reflected in share prices then people/the market are expecting oil to remain at the $40 level for the foreseeable. Does that sound right to you? I can't see it staying low if demand last year was 10m barrels a day higher, given current rig count. You can turn off supply relatively quickly, remaining supply output is used up, low oil prices ensure new investment in supply is vastly reduced or turn off completely. Lockdowns and large inventories from the shock at the start of the year have kept the price low for longer, exacerbating those supply factors mentioned. 

That does sound right, I'm sure they access to expensive data to see demand, production, inventories etc - they must not be liking what they've seen (up until now at least)

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The other part is inflation. If this vaccine is legitimate, then soon people will be back out there circulating a vastly increased money supply (when looking at M2), this will lead to inflation. Its speculation as to when people will want/be allowed to get back to normal, but when it happens, inflation will kick off - we printed the money this time. Oil is right at the start of the production chain and inflation will start to show its head there first.

M2 is misleading and comes down to what is money

Are bank reserves money? that's what QE creates, it shows up on m2 pretending to be money but it can't be spent so it's not money

M2 overlaid on oil shows it's not inflationary 

1 hour ago, Stacktastic said:

So you did not read my nostradamus like thread on it then LOL. 

The only thing i have got right this year!! 

I hadn't but was a good shout, came totally out of the blue for me 

1 hour ago, Madstacks said:

 has there been a lot of dilution or anything else? 

I will try and explain succinctly, some of the details might be slightly off as are the figures but the general theme of it will be about right

In 2019 the world consumed 100 million barrels of oil a day and the price was generally about $55 per barrel 

A big oil company like shell might generate 350 billion revenue in a year but the net income is only 15 billion, they operate under quite tight margins

Earlier in the year the world went into lockdown so demand plummeted,  the production feeding the 100m per day was suddenly far too much and oil had to go into storage, the price per barrel sunk down to negative for a period

Obviously for companies operating under tight margins that is a disaster, Shell lost 18 billion in Q2

Demand now has averaged out to ~90m barrels per day and ~$40 per barrel so still quite a drop from 2019 but big oil companies have taken the past few months to restructure and cut fat to adjust and Shell had a very good Q3 all things considered back in profit

With uncertainty over lockdowns and just how long the pandemic will go on for it makes sense to me oil stock would stay fairly low but now the vaccine news has given some hope

27 minutes ago, KDave said:

It is still bargain basement levels in oil and even though I like seeing green as much as the next man, I absolutely hate averaging up. As a contrarian it feels like betrayal but its now average up across the board or go back to buying gold. 

Hopefully the market goes back to buying tech for a bit longer over winter and we can go back to averaging down like true contrarian investors. 

It's annoying for me I was planning to buy shell at lower 10 at worst, ten seemed to be what had developed as a top for the bottom

Thought I had winter with lockdowns to observe price and time it - I didn't factor in vaccine news at all, wasn't even in the back of my mind 

Still the initial spike seems to have calmed down already it should retrace back some, I will wait for price to stabilise again regardless 

6 hours ago, HighlandTiger said:

@Kman

It seems I'm getting the hang of the charts and drawing lines. The lines I had already drawn on my silver chart last week, "predicted", the bottom of yesterdays silver  rollercoaster ride.

I think I'll be using this to try and time some purchases in future, although only with small amounts at the start 

That looks good to me,  pretty much what I have drawn in

it's quite satisfying isn't it when you see price interact with lines you've already drawn in

The fact it finished back above that blue line is quite positive for the short term, more positive than I would have expected - below the thicker pink line is negative though 

27 minutes ago, HGr said:

Eh, didn't see this coming, was waiting until the end of the month. Damn. BP hasn't gone up much. Do you guys think prices will settle down or do you think the trajectory is basically up from here? 

Also does anyone know how I can get some bitcoin action without the faff of actually buying/owning it? 212 has it on CFD, but I just want to track it without the leverage. 

Grayscale bitcoin trust? GBTC

I have bitcoin on Etoro, very easy to buy and sell instantly but the spread is quite large, ~$100 between buy and sell

Me today thinking it's an overreaction

28 minutes ago, Stacktastic said:

Sell order at the line, i will kick myself if it tanks back down again. 

I can always reinvest WHEN it goes back down.

It's hard to guess atm if this is an initial spike that will fall off or if this is a complete shift and people are now restructuring for recovery

"The data presented is not the final analysis. It is based on the first 94 volunteers to test positive for Covid - the precise effectiveness of the vaccine may change when the full results are analysed"

It's a trial done on 94 people and yet so much money is moving around right now  

Edit> sorry it says "Their vaccine has been tested on 43,500 people in six countries and no safety concerns have been raised." but then later "The data presented is not the final analysis. It is based on the first 94 volunteers to test positive for Covid - the precise effectiveness of the vaccine may change when the full results are analysed."

10 minutes ago, Stacktastic said:

Yay!!!

Here we go boys, no idea how long this will last but the oil is rocketing today as is everything else FTSE. 

Madness is happening right now lol

I looked at things thinking wtf is going on for couple minutes, couldn't work it out then guessed vaccine

it's news of a vaccine - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54873105

This is a massive overreaction surely with so many questions as yet left unanswered about it 

5 hours ago, KDave said:

Biden will ban fracking and generally try to give the US oil industry a hard time. This will result in the US losing energy independence as their imports will increase from a resultingly smaller world market - and the oil price will rise. If anyone sees it going a different way please say, but from where I am sitting Biden looks positive for oil prices for all the wrong reasons. 

Wont it depend on the senate? Biden might want to do certain things but have his hands tide

The number of rigs is already down to 1/4 in the US anyway because most can't be profitable at $40 

Will fighting an industry already only 1/4 of what it was a year ago and providing vital jobs in tough economic times really be that popular or deemed necessary of a move right now?

If people believe Biden will be good for oil prices we should have seen speculation on that already like green stocks shot up

If he wants a friendlier relationship with Iran he might remove sanctions and that would add a lot of extra oil to the market whereas Trump seemed unlikely to soften 

"Exports have shrunk from more than 2.5 million barrels per day since the US withdrew from the nuclear deal. Still, Iran has been working to get around the measures and keep exports flowing."

Lots of ifs buts and maybes

8 hours ago, KDave said:

I enjoyed this from minutes 25 but I disagree with both of them, bonds are a terrible idea at this point and QE is not deflationary;

"The more QE there is the more deflationary it is" - Looking backwards yes, 2008-14 QE was deflationary - bank reserves went up, not much else happened. What was the reason for QE in 2008 and where did it go. It sat on bank reserves assets and encouraged them to lend. QE itself was just added to total deposits at commercial banks.

You might be able to fact check me on some of this because I'm not 100% on the details

For QE you need to buy bonds so money has to be going to the government not just bank reserves

I assumed they would have done some stimulus googled and they did https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Recovery_and_Reinvestment_Act_of_2009 I don't think it was anywhere to the scale of 2020 but neither was the QE

Fundamentally the federal reserve cannot print money, QE is not increasing the money supply, only commercial bank lending can increase the money supply and as I've posted from the FRED site and they aren't lending (not yet anyway)  so there can't be inflation. I don't know if this is part of the reason but what's the point in a bank lending atm if governments keep deferring loans anyway 

Unless the government money goes towards building something that is going to generate economic growth it's a flash in the pan at best

RE: bond prices - I think Stevens main argument is there's strong demand at treasury auctions

There's record short positions  from hedge funds against 30 year bonds and bond prices are still holding strong, they're getting in very wrong right now

In there's any fear or a stock market crash and money rushes to bonds for safety all those positions are going to have to flip, that will be a lot of dollars rushing into bonds, it could spike them up maybe 30-40% 

TLT the 20+ year treasury bond etf is up 35% since the start of 2019 and was as much as 50% in March; not as incredible compared to some other things this year like tech stocks but not bad at all

Steven is a financial planner with clients I'm sure if he tells them he turned their investment into +35% in couple years doing something he deems as safe they're very pleased. In comparison If you timed it perfect and bought an S&P500 etf at the bottom of the crash late 2018 you're only 50% up now but there was a rollercoaster along the way

Personally I'm happy to wait and try and trade in and out of TLT at the right time, but I do think there will be a right time sooner than later

2 hours ago, Stacktastic said:

Thanks for sharing this is great. 

This guy is the quintessential geek isnt he? 

Someone I am ever becoming. My wife is so fed up with my economic updates now!

Love his honesty. My privileged life was built on my dad trading guilts!! I know the truth now. 

Clearly he is a stud 😛

RealVision put out some really good videos, Steven Van Metre too

I think I'm going to watch a few more Jeff Snider videos and see if he has anything else interesting to say, I just found one with Brent Johnson I'm going to check out next

This is a good video about deflation

They talk about QE @ 25:45

Stimulus @ 35:10

I mean they talk about banking QE, stimulus, central banks etc all the way through those are just some specific interesting points 

4 hours ago, sixgun said:

Silver really ripping higher - BIS options settled at the end of last week and as predicted price in the metals has taken off.
The market is pricing in a Biden win - MASSIVE money printing and as a result the USD getting DESTROYED.
So what do you do? - swap out confetti for real money.

It's not money printing in the US, the government sells bonds to the private market - commercial banks etc

Fed purchase those bonds from the private market but they don't exchange it for straight dollars they credit an account held at the fed that can't be withdrawn from, it does go towards a banks reserves but they can't spend it

If Biden wins doesn't it also depend who has control of the senate? - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-54804080

Is the USD getting destroyed? the DXY is still well above where it was in 2018