Silver in a time of crisis, or for retirement.

[GoldDiggerDave]

1 hour ago, Darr3nG said:

A lot of assumptions there, @GoldDiggerDave...

 

According to [The Royal Mint], a large monster box (20 tubes) has the following dimensions: L:265 x W:218 x D:86 mm

54 is a nice round (literally rectangular) 6 x 9 configuration, so would cover a floor area comprised of approx. 1.59 x 1.96m

Moving over to [Wikipedia], we can see that this would fit comfortably under a standard King-size bed (in most countries, except the UK where there will be a bit poking out)

And only requiring approx. 90mm of floor clearance would leave some space for other storage. This, or just place the mattress directly on top of the monster boxes for a "solid" night's sleep.

Moving said bed to the ground floor would mitigate against any ceiling damage.

 

Check mate!

A bed made of silver and my cheap nylon sheets……..I’d generate 1.21 gigawatts of static electricity every time I got lucky! I’d end up back in 1955. 

[Agaupl]

Just now, GoldDiggerDave said:

A bed made of silver and my cheap nylon sheets……..I’d generate 1.21 gigawatts of static electricity every time I got lucky! I’d end up back in 1955. 

Dave that’s 1.21 gw a decade 🤣once you’re back in 1955 it’s even less 🤣

[Darr3nG]

1 minute ago, GoldDiggerDave said:

I’d generate 1.21 gigawatts of static electricity every time I got lucky!

At least you'd save on Libyan plutonium... Great Scott!

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

3 hours ago, Agaupl said:

Now do SNP and QQQ. The last shows these are the better option.. but I’m not sure the next 50 years will follow the last 50. 
Compound interest is the key to these ‘long term’ metrics. I’d argue 1971 isn’t long term when looking at PMs (precious metals, Perth mint, private message) but it was obviously a turning point. 
 

As a non yielding asset over the long term pms aren’t a great investment (collectable premium excused). But as a shorter term hedge there’s growth and imvho I see potential in it at the moment. I’ve seen the real estate vs PMs and other collectables before and it works atm on thr trend but obviously not for the majority of the charts and not for real people. Who wanted an inner suburb terrace in londres in 1971? Who wants one now. Same for multiple examples.  For me it’s important to move capital based on circumstances and not stay stuck in one form for ever. 
 

with BTC or ETH there’s not enough history to establish trends imho. For good or bad. 
 

Gold and silver (bullion) are savings not investment 

I did a thing for the S&P, gold, real estate, stocks, bonds, silver. The stats show silver performing similar to a 10-year Treasury and better than a 3-month Treasury, with silver having a real terms annual return (accounting for inflation) of +3.16% from 1971-2022. Silver would look better if we excluded the boom and crash of late 2010-early2013. There was a high point in 2011 ($48) with several other peaks in that period > $40. So if we consider the period 2013-2022 (the last 10 complete years), silver looks bad, dropping from $30 to $24. Gold is also negative (-0.53%) during that period. 

Stocks are the best investment, followed by gold, then corporate bonds, silver, LT gov bonds, real estate and ST gov bonds:

 

 

 

[Upsidedown]

52 minutes ago, HonestMoneyGoldSilver said:

I did a thing for the S&P, gold, real estate, stocks, bonds, silver. The stats show silver performing similar to a 10-year Treasury and better than a 3-month Treasury, with silver having a real terms annual return (accounting for inflation) of +3.16% from 1971-2022. Silver would look better if we excluded the boom and crash of late 2010-early2013. There was a high point in 2011 ($48) with several other peaks in that period > $40. So if we consider the period 2013-2022 (the last 10 complete years), silver looks bad, dropping from $30 to $24. Gold is also negative (-0.53%) during that period. 

Stocks are the best investment, followed by gold, then corporate bonds, silver, LT gov bonds, real estate and ST gov bonds:

 

 

 

3/10

Too much thinking required.

Got distracted and now my knobs stuck in the neighbours letter box.

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

1 minute ago, Upsidedown said:

3/10

Too much thinking required.

Got distracted and now my knobs stuck in the neighbours letter box.

You'll have plenty of time to think after the neighbour submits their security cam footage

[Roy]

6 hours ago, sixgun said:

$4000 a month - that's £3139 at the moment. That's a lot in my book.

I chose that figure considering the formula that your rent should be a third of your salary. I believe most folk are paying rents of £1000 pcm, if not more.

Rents are crazy in the US, you guys over the pond don't realize that we are just not able to do the things we want to do!

C'mon, the queues in Starbucks are huge! My boss doesn't understand why I'm late everyday...

Uber and Doordash both expect a 20% tip and God knows how I'm going to finance the iPhone 15

It's not fair!

😭

Edited August 16, 2023 by Roy

[sixgun]

1 minute ago, Roy said:

I chose that figure considering the formula that your rent should be a third of you salary. I believe most are paying rents of £1000 pcm, if not more.

Rents are crazy in the US, you guys over the pond don't realize that we are just not able to do the things we want to do!

C'mon, the queues in Starbucks are huge! My boss doesn't understand why I'm late everyday...

Uber and Doordash both expect a 20% tip and God knows how I'm going to finance the iPhone 15

It's not fair!

😭

Thought about going back to Thailand Roy?

Fortunately i am a paid off home owner - no rent or mortgage.

Late everyday? i didn't think you were working Roy. i thought you were a dosser like me.

[Roy]

Philippines actually, but Thailand will do! Yes.

Me too 😎

100% dosser, me 😇

Ooh, the irony 😊

[Coverte]

2 hours ago, HonestMoneyGoldSilver said:

I did a thing for the S&P, gold, real estate, stocks, bonds, silver. The stats show silver performing similar to a 10-year Treasury and better than a 3-month Treasury, with silver having a real terms annual return (accounting for inflation) of +3.16% from 1971-2022. Silver would look better if we excluded the boom and crash of late 2010-early2013. There was a high point in 2011 ($48) with several other peaks in that period > $40. So if we consider the period 2013-2022 (the last 10 complete years), silver looks bad, dropping from $30 to $24. Gold is also negative (-0.53%) during that period. 

Stocks are the best investment, followed by gold, then corporate bonds, silver, LT gov bonds, real estate and ST gov bonds:

 

 

 

Excellent as the above submission is and we usually look to the past history for future guidance, I feel, right now, all bets are off regarding the S&P etc, as it maybe about to fall off a cliff IMHO.

With that said, well chosen stocks, in specific sectors in which a seller understands and knows, and has also fully and adequately researched any such given stock/s, some of those have potential for some truly massive gains.

I would not select a tracker any longer (never have actually), this is a time for selective stock buying only, if you are trying to make serious gains (or not lose your shirt!).

[Roy]

16 hours ago, Darr3nG said:

Monthly Expenses		Duration of Crisis
GBP £	Gold Ozt*	6 months	1 Year	18 Months	2 Years	3 Years
£500.00	0.33	2.0	3.9	5.9	7.8	11.7
£1,000.00	0.65	3.9	7.8	11.7	15.6	23.5
£2,000.00	1.30	7.8	15.6	23.5	31.3	46.9
£3,000.00	1.95	11.7	23.5	35.2	46.9	70.4
£4,000.00	2.61	15.6	31.3	46.9	62.5	93.8
£5,000.00	3.26	19.5	39.1	58.6	78.2	117.3
£6,000.00	3.91	23.5	46.9	70.4	93.8	140.7
£10,000.00	6.51	39.1	78.2	117.3	156.4	234.5
£15,000.00	9.77	58.6	117.3	175.9	234.5	351.8
£20,000.00	13.03	78.2	156.4	234.5	312.7	469.1
*based on 1ozt gold round from TSF:			£1,535.00
Monthly Expenses		Duration of Crisis
GBP £	Sovereign*	6 months	1 Year	18 Months	2 Years	3 Years
£500.00	1.35	8.1	16.2	24.3	32.4	48.6
£1,000.00	2.70	16.2	32.4	48.6	64.9	97.3
£2,000.00	5.41	32.4	64.9	97.3	129.7	194.6
£3,000.00	8.11	48.6	97.3	145.9	194.6	291.9
£4,000.00	10.81	64.9	129.7	194.6	259.5	389.2
£5,000.00	13.51	81.1	162.2	243.2	324.3	486.5
£6,000.00	16.22	97.3	194.6	291.9	389.2	583.8
£10,000.00	27.03	162.2	324.3	486.5	648.6	973.0
£15,000.00	40.54	243.2	486.5	729.7	973.0	1,459.5
£20,000.00	54.05	324.3	648.6	973.0	1,297.3	1,945.9
*based on 1 full sovereign from TSF:			£370.00

Back to reality, no-one here expects to survive solely on their gold stack 🙂 ( hope!)

If we consider gold as a savings vehicle and a tool to combat inflation, we can use @Darr3nG's super chart above to guide us how much gold we need to supplement our pension/retirement.

Let's assume that you own your property and have at least some income coming in, whether that be from a state pension, a private pension, investments or have income producing assets such as BTL.

The state pension in the UK is £203 p/w, perhaps £812 pcm? I'd call that 'worst-case scenario', although some may not even receive that! I noted mums that took time off etc. https://www.gov.uk/new-state-pension/what-youll-get

You may never need to touch your gold because you've been canny with your savings and investments but, for those who *haven't, it's comforting to know that just 1.35 sovs or 0.33 ozt gold can supplement your pension by £500 every month.

 

* this is not meant to be sarcastic- many people have missed the opportunity to save and invest because of either a lack of financial education, family commitments, lack of family planning, controlling spouses, disability and various addictions.

Edited August 17, 2023 by Roy

[Bigmarc]

4 hours ago, Roy said:

many people have missed the opportunity to save and invest because of either a lack of financial education, family commitments, lack of family planning, controlling spouses, disability and various addictions.

Ha, I think I qualify for all of these at some point. 

All I am looking for in metals is to supplement part of my pension if and when I need it. My biggest thought lately is if I depart before my time that I need to write some kind of instruction manual as to what to do with all my bits. 

[GoldDiggerDave]

10 hours ago, Roy said:

I chose that figure considering the formula that your rent should be a third of your salary. I believe most folk are paying rents of £1000 pcm, if not more.

Rents are crazy in the US, you guys over the pond don't realize that we are just not able to do the things we want to do!

C'mon, the queues in Starbucks are huge! My boss doesn't understand why I'm late everyday...

Uber and Doordash both expect a 20% tip and God knows how I'm going to finance the iPhone 15

It's not fair!

😭

I don't think you were far off Roy with around $4k-£3.1k outgoings per month.  Anyone paying rent or still servicing a mortgage will be easily paying £1k in rent or mortgage the odds are anyone paying rent or a mortgage are likely to have other debt they need to service like personal loans and credit cards.  

I'd say most families or those with dependants  today in the UK will need 2.5k income as an absolute minimum to get by if they are still servicing debt by they retire.    Whats really scary is for those who just rent  ok in your 40-50's while you are still working, what happens to rent 15-20 after you have retired?   in your late 50's early 60's the rent could be come so expensive the pension is not paying the rent.   I know America has already got a handle on this and they have solved it with cardboard box cities under freeway bridges.    

£800 per month to rent an ex council house near me, £1,200 for a small new build house.  

 

 

[Bigmarc]

£1500 for a flat, £2500 for a ex council house where I am. All 3 bed and no new builds available. 

Cheapest 2 bed flat to rent is £1250 and there is one of them added yesterday. 

Edited August 17, 2023 by Bigmarc

[GoldDiggerDave]

7 minutes ago, Bigmarc said:

£1500 for a flat, £2500 for a ex council house where I am. All 3 bed and no new builds available. 

Cheapest 2 bed flat to rent is £1250 and there is one of them added yesterday. 

Gees mate thats bloody scary.   There's a good strategy to rent your place out down there and move Tup North when it comes to retirement.   Spoke with the Mrs about this and we've always fancied living somewhere out in the sticks either North Wales or Scotland,  will just buy a small place and rent the current house out.

[Aldebaran]

2 hours ago, Bigmarc said:

Ha, I think I qualify for all of these at some point. 

All I am looking for in metals is to supplement part of my pension if and when I need it. My biggest thought lately is if I depart before my time that I need to write some kind of instruction manual as to what to do with all my bits. 

I have been having the same thoughts re: instructions. Maybe it will be a winter chore, unfortunately that seems to be coming rather quickly🌞

[Darr3nG]

2 hours ago, GoldDiggerDave said:

£800 per month to rent an ex council house near me, £1,200 for a small new build house.  

1 hour ago, Bigmarc said:

£1500 for a flat, £2500 for a ex council house where I am. All 3 bed and no new builds available. 

Cheapest 2 bed flat to rent is £1250 and there is one of them added yesterday. 

You'd need to bank a lot of monster boxes just to cover this bill alone! 

[GoldDiggerDave]

The retirement goal is a very hard one ideally it would help knowing how long you are going to live and how long of that time are you gong to be healthy and abled bodied.  I was calling in on one of my neighbours daily as she wasn't; good,  for the last 5-6 years of her life it really was poor  for her.    Very little mobility and losing her mind slowly, all I can say about old age its horrific and not many people talk about it.  She was very wealthy, had multiple pensions,  windows, MOD , her own personal civil servant one with private health cars and a state pension........didn't do her any good, and as pessimistic as this sound it gets to a point in all our lives where wealth becomes meaningless.

For me it not about life span but more health span the time you are fit, healthy pain free and have some kind of financial independence in your life, without answering to your boss on a Monday morning can PM's help this?   Yes but its not the one answer fits all, its more about what finical decisions you make in your 20's that have the biggest impact on your life going forward you can make dramatic corrective changes in your 30's and this will still give you some time once you get into your 40's and 50's this become far more difficult if your goal is to enjoy a bit of freedom while you are still fit and healthy. 

Most people don't have a clue never mind a goal in  life they are happy just to wake up, go to work, wish the day away so they are one day closer to the pay cheque and they do it all over again  for the next 45-50years.  I live in an area with a lot of elderly neighbours and once they get into their late 60's especially early 70's  their health and mobility is nowhere what it was only a year or two before, for me I'd liquidated all my PM's in my late 50's early 60's to enjoy life making sure theres a pension or passive income to cover my daily outgoings as I age.

 

 

 

 

[SidS]

On 16/08/2023 at 19:28, Upsidedown said:

3/10

Too much thinking required.

Got distracted and now my knobs stuck in the neighbours letter box.

I hope your neighbour isn't Ramsey Bolton.

[HillWalkerDundee]

When I look at the content of this thread I despair. I despair for the kids future. I despair for the should have beens, could have beens had schools and parents were knowledgeable enough to have prepared us for the financial aspects of life.

[JackKlugman]

On 16/08/2023 at 08:47, GoldDiggerDave said:

£1000 in the bank in 1971 with an average of 7.1% interest over time. Turns into  £39,690.85.

£1000 of silver in 1971 would have bought you around 1200oz (being generous)   allowing for vat and dealer premium  £21,348.00 todays price 

£1000 of gold in 1971 would have bought around 60oz gold allowing for dealer premium  today this is worth £89,700. today price 

Not positive nor negative just fact. 

Cash in the bank has gone up 39X in 52 years  from £1000 to £39,690.85  (with interest) 

Silver has gone up 25.5X in price in 52 years, from £0.70p to £17.85  at spot 

Gold has gone up 94.3x in price in 52 years, from £15.84 to £1,495 at spot 

In real terms how much has the pound lost in 52 years?   I would argue around 95% of its real purchasing  power.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is an outstanding post - the better bet would have to have bought a house with you £1000 in 1971 - that's gone up in value dramatically more than gold !

[GoldDiggerDave]

26 minutes ago, JackKlugman said:

This is an outstanding post - the better bet would have to have bought a house with you £1000 in 1971 - that's gone up in value dramatically more than gold !

I did look at this and an average house was just under 5k in 1971.  I like to look at investments in relative terms.  Take 5k in gold in 1971 average house money that would be 445k  (average house today 267k ish) so gold in relative terms has out performed house prices by circa 62% 

some think I’m anti silver I’m not, I just can’t stand the bad advice out there and the facts speak for themselves.   
 

what’s scary is the halving of fiat it loses around 50% of its purchasing power, every 10 years it’s lost over 50% in the last 3 so the next 3 years will be very telling if we continue on this inflationary trajectory. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Cogload]

Covered by Melbourne's finest:

 

 

 

Edited September 1, 2023 by Cogload

[Petra]

48 minutes ago, GoldDiggerDave said:

I did look at this and an average house was just under 5k in 1971.  I like to look at investments in relative terms.  Take 5k in gold in 1971 average house money that would be 445k  (average house today 267k ish) so gold in relative terms has out performed house prices by circa 62% 

some think I’m anti silver I’m not, I just can’t stand the bad advice out there and the facts speak for themselves.   
 

what’s scary is the halving of fiat it loses around 50% of its purchasing power, every 10 years it’s lost over 50% in the last 3 so the next 3 years will be very telling if we continue on this inflationary trajectory. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A family member has recently moved house. The home they were in cost £30,000. They were in this house for 25 years, sold it for £200,000

[JackKlugman]

1 hour ago, GoldDiggerDave said:

I did look at this and an average house was just under 5k in 1971.  I like to look at investments in relative terms.  Take 5k in gold in 1971 average house money that would be 445k  (average house today 267k ish) so gold in relative terms has out performed house prices by circa 62% 

some think I’m anti silver I’m not, I just can’t stand the bad advice out there and the facts speak for themselves.   
 

what’s scary is the halving of fiat it loses around 50% of its purchasing power, every 10 years it’s lost over 50% in the last 3 so the next 3 years will be very telling if we continue on this inflationary trajectory. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I don’t think you’re anti silver, I think you are realistic. Your posts are very informative