true price of gold?

[Martlet]

2 hours ago, MancunianStacker said:

Over the last 50 years the price of Gold in £’s has increased 9,400%, that’s 188% per annum (basic). In $’s it has increased 4,800%, that’s 96% per annum (basic).

So, if we extrapolate this forward 10 years, at £1,400 in 2020, we are looking at 1,880% and we come out at £26,320 per oz in 2030.

If I go back 10 yrs, the price hasn't risen 188% in total, let along average to now, so why expect the longer term average to play out going forward?  There's an awful lot of economic, geopolitical change in that 50 span that had a bearing and wont repeat. 

[MancunianStacker]

1 hour ago, Abyss said:

Recency bias and Extrapolation where the majority of people get caught out. Recency bias thinking well I have also been paid X amount and will continue to be paid and consume goods and services indefinitely into the future as the status quo always stays the same. Extrapolation thinking lead down to well the markets have always gone up and every time I have bought the dip I have always been rewarded hence I should extrapolate this and continue indefinitely. Staying neutral will allow you the ability to see both side of the arguments and try and plan accordingly. I have heard strong evidence all this money printing will lead to hyperinflation in the decades to come and also heard Fed can print to infinity and beyond and will not cause hyperinflation. Compelling arguments and evidence on both sides of the fence. I have come to the realisation that neutrality the best position for myself and have stopped watching certain YouTube channels that have a very pro bias towards the metals.

Happy to listen to any ideas, thoughts and other YouTube channels discussing the opposite.

[MancunianStacker]

1 hour ago, Martlet said:

If I go back 10 yrs, the price hasn't risen 188% in total, let along average to now, so why expect the longer term average to play out going forward?  There's an awful lot of economic, geopolitical change in that 50 span that had a bearing and wont repeat. 

Post 🍺 virus, I now think a lot of new things are about to happen that we haven’t seen before. Hepatitis E being transmitted from Rat to human being just one of them, which in itself reminds me of the plague. Plus a lot of things we have seen before will repeat and keep repeating as history tends to do when people don’t heed their warnings.

The countries to the East like India and China who have seen their paper “money” fail time and time again over hundreds of years, value gold long term to pass on wealth.

When I’m 90 (hoping to make it that long) I believe my gold stack will have performed rather well compared to their cash equivalents and will seamlessly pass to my future dynasty.

I think the Keynesian economists in charge of the central banks have done a lot of monetary alchemy that will hit them on their butts soon.

[MancunianStacker]

Great video!!!! Not too long at 7 mins:

 

[MancunianStacker]

And this 2 minute video:

 

[RacerCool]

12 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

so far, how far has the dollar collapsed in this global pandemic?

 

HH

Don't know, not far yet, I'm guessing. But many businesses were completely shut down, and jobs were lost, instantly. Now the gov't has literally printed trillions, and are likely to do even more.

The full consequences have yet to be seen or understood, but they were set in motion instantly. 

[MancunianStacker]

Here is what happened to gold in 1971:

 

[OriginalS]

2 hours ago, MancunianStacker said:

Here is what happened to gold in 1971:

 

That video was great yesterday

 

https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

[MancunianStacker]

Watch this and then answer the question below:

When they really have one shot of revaluing the price of gold )and wait for the big score), what figure in $ would you pick?

a) $44 per oz (as it is now)

b) $1,740 per oz (since that is the paper price today)

c) $23,274 per oz (as per the US debt clock, to cancel out the debt).

d) $50,000 per oz (as they have $25Trillion of debt to pay off first, so why not increase it by another 100% or so).

Would any other country care / be against them doing this?

China has been encouraging its citizens to buy gold for a long time. Maybe they know what’s coming?

[HerefordBullyun]

10 minutes ago, MancunianStacker said:

Watch this and then answer the question below:

When they really have one shot of revaluing the price of gold )and wait for the big score), what figure in $ would you pick?

a) $44 per oz (as it is now)

b) $1,740 per oz (since that is the paper price today)

c) $23,274 per oz (as per the US debt clock, to cancel out the debt).

d) $50,000 per oz (as they have $25Trillion of debt to pay off first, so why not increase it by another 100% or so).

Would any other country care / be against them doing this?

China has been encouraging its citizens to buy gold for a long time. Maybe they know what’s coming?

The problem Is the fed doesnt own any gold this was admitted years ago....

 

[MancunianStacker]

13 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

The problem Is the fed doesnt own any gold this was admitted years ago....

 

I know mate, that’s mentioned in the video I linked to.

[DarkChameleon]

Gold will not be allowed to go up by such margins whilie the likes if china, india and russia hold so much of it, youd be handing the keys to your house to the very people the west doesnt want to be our landlord...the west puts value in the things it has or can control, if it cant it promotes and trades it to stay low or managable

Edited May 15, 2020 by DarkChameleon

[HerefordBullyun]

This is exactly why ETF's paper market was created so the price of gold could be controlled and supressed. Also I will bet anyone to try and swap thier ETF cert for physical - wont happen!

Edited May 15, 2020 by HerefordBullyun

[Prophecy]

13 hours ago, DarkChameleon said:

Gold will not be allowed to go up by such margins whilie the likes if china, india and russia hold so much of it, youd be handing the keys to your house to the very people the west doesnt want to be our landlord...the west puts value in the things it has or can control, if it cant it promotes and trades it to stay low or managable

Expect a MASSIVE gold price movement in either direction orchestrated in some manner before then to get those countries to sell so the US can buy. Maybe the US will try to accept payments in gold only from these countries (by proxy in an indirect way). So much will have to be done to manipulate the market before the Fed revalues their gold holdings without, as you say, making the most gold rich countries on earth the most financially powerful. Either that, or they'll do it anyway and deal with the consequences after.

Edited May 16, 2020 by Prophecy

[GoldenPhil]

Who has the most gold? US, UK, Swiss, China, Russia, India? 

[Prophecy]

2 minutes ago, GoldenPhil said:

Who has the most gold? US, UK, Swiss, China, Russia, India? 

There are rumours that China is lying about their reserve holdings....... some say they have over 20,000 tons instead of the stated 2,000 because they have the most productive gold mines in the world, state owned, and none of that gold leaves their country. All part of their plan to make their currency replace the dollar internationally. Considering the CCP lies about everything, it really wouldn't surprise me.

Edited May 16, 2020 by Prophecy

[GoldenPhil]

I remember sometime ago hearing about Brazil Russia India and China switching to a gold backed currency called the BRIC 

[DarkChameleon]

4 hours ago, GoldenPhil said:

I remember sometime ago hearing about Brazil Russia India and China switching to a gold backed currency called the BRIC 

If they juzt made their own currency in gold it would force the point, none of this £2 1 oz silver but £15 1 oz silver, $20 ase then it would just be acceptable...othed. ou tries could b***h and moan but it would be a standard.

[HerefordBullyun]

5 hours ago, Prophecy said:

There are rumours that China is lying about their reserve holdings.......

They are lying as they will come clean when the crash happens - as it will have a detrimental effect to all those countries that dont.

That aside an intresting article here..

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/von-greyerz-you-cant-avoid-final-collapse

 

[Abyss]

For 99 years since 1921 US Dollar held the position of the world reserve currency. Despite trillions dollars Fed printing (it does not equate to the trillions lost in asset prices). How long will the US dollar remain the world's reserve currency it could be another 5 to 30 years and if it is the later part of the estimate at that time I would be more worried about my health and mobility rather than currency/Gold.

The question ask yourself in May 2019 Gold $1275 run up currently to $1750 in single year 37%. Is this price movement sustainable? It is said the cure for high prices is, high prices. I want to accumulate Gold over a lifetime because proven ultimate store of value but I understand Gold treated more like a commodity than money and will go through cycles like other commodities and will have periods of positive and negative sentiment. You can read comments from old forum members where the individual swept away with emotions during the last cycle in PMs and purchased Silver over £30 and still waiting to break even 9 years later.

As I already have an established position in Gold at much lower prices I am siting on the fence.

Edited May 16, 2020 by Abyss

[Prophecy]

Thankfully, with the CCP in control of China, the world won't accept the Yuan as main reserve currency. The country is too dishonest and closed to scrutiny to form any sense of reassurance from any country worth its salt. We were happy to trade with it but no one will stand for anything more.

[GoldenPhil]

Brazil Russia India China,  if they back something the rest of the world must follow 

[Prophecy]

Just now, GoldenPhil said:

Brazil Russia India China,  if they back something the rest of the world must follow 

In all seriousness, you will not see India getting into bed with China any time soon.

[HerefordBullyun]

12 minutes ago, Prophecy said:

Thankfully, with the CCP in control of China, the world won't accept the Yuan as main reserve currency. The country is too dishonest and closed to scrutiny to form any sense of reassurance from any country worth its salt. We were happy to trade with it but no one will stand for anything more.

Yes 100% if you have never seen this its well worth a watch if you have netflix

 

https://www.netflix.com/gb/title/80221646

[Prophecy]

5 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Yes 100% if you have never seen this its well worth a watch if you have netflix

 

https://www.netflix.com/gb/title/80221646

I have, there are so so many documentaries about the West's finances though. Everyone's looking for the new bogey man, the tangible image of something that is, frustratingly, so esoteric and abstract as to be impossible to explain. Yet so simple once/if it actually happens. Thar be dragons over thar.