true price of gold?

[MancunianStacker]

2 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

£1450/toz was never classed as crazy, being a mere ~25% above the

all time high of ~£1200.

$50k/toz is a crazy 2400% above the all time high of ~$1930. we are

likely to hit $50/toz, but it's going to take a lot longer than 5 years to

get there. by comparison moving from $35 to $1930 (took 40 years to

rise 5400%).

(dropping the gold standard in 1971 was a reset for gold)

 

HH

As a comparison, Bitcoin is also mined but central banks don’t hold it. It went to the moon but it had no past performance to speak of, isn’t widely accepted and isn’t exactly easy to deal with. If central banks were buying bitcoin or buttons over gold I’d probably be buying that too.

Why is $50k per oz crazy??? Are you saying it couldn’t happen in say 5-10 years?

[HawkHybrid]

12 minutes ago, MancunianStacker said:

As a comparison, Bitcoin is also mined but central banks don’t hold it. It went to the moon but it had no past performance to speak of, isn’t widely accepted and isn’t exactly easy to deal with. If central banks were buying bitcoin or buttons over gold I’d probably be buying that too.

Why is $50k per oz crazy??? Are you saying it couldn’t happen in say 5-10 years?

 

bitcoin is not mined. it is fiat, it's just that crypto fanatics don't accept the

fact that it's fiat. bitcoin is gambling.

increasing 25 times it's historic highs in 5 years is crazy. gambling like the

national lottery, bitcoin can do it. gold is not gambling. when gold in

zimbabwe dollars went up crazy it was not gold that went up crazy, but the

zimbabwe dollar that collapsed(everything in zimbabwe dollars went up

crazy). so it comes down to will the us dollar collapse from reserve currency

status to being worth very little in 5-10 year? the american economy is still

the largest economy in the world. even if the chinese economy overtakes it

within 10 years, so it is then the second largest economy in the world.

the currency of the second largest economy in the world is hardly going to

fall to 4% (1/25) of what it can purchase today. of course it is possible, but

how probable is it? it's gambling odds and that's what makes it crazy.

 

it takes time for global events to happen, lots of time.

 

HH

[MancunianStacker]

BitCoin is mined, just not in the traditional sense, out of the ground. I was going to buy a coin-miner recently but unless your electricity is cheap and your computer system is super fast and kept super cold, it will cost more fiat to mine a coin. It takes electrical energy, expensive computing power and time to mine a bitcoin otherwise we’d all have them for free.

I agree BitCoin is fiat because it is a man-made currency. Unlimited numbers of crypto currencies can be created by anyone. What’s crazy is that crypto’s are going the percentages you are talking about. So why can’t Gold do it again? Yes again.

If it’s happened in the past it can happen again. Gold at $35 in 1970 and went to $700 in 1980. That’s a 20x increase or 2,000% in your terms, you say 2,400% is crazy! Had I said this would happen in 1970, you’d have said it was crazy too. Earth being round was crazy, going to the Moon/Space was crazy etc. 10 years it took and there was no global pandemic / depression on the way, so why couldn’t it be possible in 5 years???

Nobody thought a virus pandemic would shut down the world economy but guess what, it did and in three months. Not lots of time at all.

Confidence is the only thing keeping currency together and as soon as people figure out it isn’t worth having, the cr@p will hit the fan and the 1970-80 jump will look like a picnic.

I’ve already had people bartering for my own professional services in the last month.

I’m not saying it definitely will happen but it certainly could. Debt:Gold ratio is all most will look at. It’s how countries decide on who to trade with and “who’s good for it”. 

[AgCoyote]

39 minutes ago, MancunianStacker said:

BitCoin is mined, just not in the traditional sense, out of the ground. I was going to buy a coin-miner recently but unless your electricity is cheap and your computer system is super fast and kept super cold, it will cost more fiat to mine a coin. It takes electrical energy, expensive computing power and time to mine a bitcoin otherwise we’d all have them for free.

I agree BitCoin is fiat because it is a man-made currency. Unlimited numbers of crypto currencies can be created by anyone. What’s crazy is that crypto’s are going the percentages you are talking about. So why can’t Gold do it again? Yes again.

If it’s happened in the past it can happen again. Gold at $35 in 1970 and went to $700 in 1980. That’s a 20x increase or 2,000% in your terms, you say 2,400% is crazy! Had I said this would happen in 1970, you’d have said it was crazy too. Earth being round was crazy, going to the Moon/Space was crazy etc. 10 years it took and there was no global pandemic / depression on the way, so why couldn’t it be possible in 5 years???

Nobody thought a virus pandemic would shut down the world economy but guess what, it did and in three months. Not lots of time at all.

Confidence is the only thing keeping currency together and as soon as people figure out it isn’t worth having, the cr@p will hit the fan and the 1970-80 jump will look like a picnic.

I’ve already had people bartering for my own professional services in the last month.

I’m not saying it definitely will happen but it certainly could. Debt:Gold ratio is all most will look at. It’s how countries decide on who to trade with and “who’s good for it”. 

Everything you say is true. The debt and demographic situation is dire. I'm fully expecting at minimum around a 5x, which puts it between $6,500 to  $10,000. The upside is a number that would make most laugh as we are in a fiat currency world. Gold's potential value is infinity.

[MancunianStacker]

Just watched this and I had forgotten what else could happen if USA and China don’t play nicely going forward.

It also explained the BitCoin mining for those who wish to learn:

 

[HawkHybrid]

44 minutes ago, MancunianStacker said:

10 years it took and there was no global pandemic / depression on the way, so why couldn’t it be possible in 5 years???

 

1971 the dollar was taken off the gold standard, in practical terms it's

the biggest reset of gold pricing possible.(you're going from a fixed gold

price to a changing gold price). in the 10 years that followed such a huge

change to the way that gold was priced, gold only managed to move 20x

increase. so an event that doesn't even affect the pricing of gold directly

but the strength of the dollar, you're saying that a even larger move in the

dollar(25x instead of 20x) in half the time is not crazy?

 

HH

[HawkHybrid]

1 hour ago, MancunianStacker said:

BitCoin is mined, just not in the traditional sense, out of the ground. I was going to buy a coin-miner recently but unless your electricity is cheap and your computer system is super fast and kept super cold, it will cost more fiat to mine a coin. It takes electrical energy, expensive computing power and time to mine a bitcoin otherwise we’d all have them for free.

 

by this definition websites are mined, programmes are mined, actually

anything I choose can be called mined.

bitcoin is created in the current time. it was not formed long ago and

retrieved by digging and refining(mining).

 

HH

[AgCoyote]

12 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

1971 the dollar was taken off the gold standard, in practical terms it's

the biggest reset of gold pricing possible.(you're going from a fixed gold

price to a changing gold price). in the 10 years that followed such a huge

change to the way that gold was priced, gold only managed to move 20x

increase. so an event that doesn't even affect the pricing of gold directly

but the strength of the dollar, you're saying that a even larger move in the

dollar(25x instead of 20x) in half the time is not crazy?

 

HH

You make a good point. I would also say another factor to consider is Basel III which makes gold a tier one asset again. We've seen how the central banks have reacted. I think it's also a game changing moment.

[GoldenPhil]

If you suddenly heard that they could now produce gold in a lab (like they can diamonds) so people were going to start producing as much gold as they wanted I am pretty sure gold prices would fall. I think people are starting to see this with currency so confidence will start to fall. 

[sixgun]

 i saw the recent belangp video where he shows there is cash sitting in a Treasury account at the Fed which would increase the currency in circulation by 40% - this will be spent - and more will be spent. When currencies, like the USD become worthless the price of gold in USD can be $100's thousands - $millions - it does not mean much b/c the USD has become worthless. The USD will become worthless. This is why we store up gold - it protects purchasing power. i believe gold is undervalued in real term and then add in the last few percent of the purchasing power of fiat disappearing and the price could easily become, well infinite, for what infinite amounts of nothing is worth.

 

[RacerCool]

5 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

it takes time for global events to happen, lots of time.

It took a global pan/plandemic about a month to cause a radical change in the US economy. And as of today we still haven't seen or really understood what things are going to look like long term.

[RacerCool]

1 hour ago, sixgun said:

 i saw the recent belangp video where he shows there is cash sitting in a Treasury account at the Fed which would increase the currency in circulation by 40% - this will be spent - and more will be spent. When currencies, like the USD become worthless the price of gold in USD can be $100's thousands - $millions - it does not mean much b/c the USD has become worthless. The USD will become worthless. This is why we store up gold - it protects purchasing power. i believe gold is undervalued in real term and then add in the last few percent of the purchasing power of fiat disappearing and the price could easily become, well infinite, for what infinite amounts of nothing is worth.

 

He might be the same one I heard who said that nearly 20% of all known above-ground gold is held by central banks. There are also Bullion banks who lend based on gold and silver deposits. 

So to answer another question, yeah gold really is the world's money. I mean the money of the wealthy and the elites. It's only the rabble, the commoners who use their monopoly money.

[MancunianStacker]

5 hours ago, sixgun said:

 i saw the recent belangp video where he shows there is cash sitting in a Treasury account at the Fed which would increase the currency in circulation by 40% - this will be spent - and more will be spent. When currencies, like the USD become worthless the price of gold in USD can be $100's thousands - $millions - it does not mean much b/c the USD has become worthless. The USD will become worthless. This is why we store up gold - it protects purchasing power. i believe gold is undervalued in real term and then add in the last few percent of the purchasing power of fiat disappearing and the price could easily become, well infinite, for what infinite amounts of nothing is worth.

 

A great video from a few nights ago. Yeah, it’s ready to be spent. Hold on tight 

[MancunianStacker]

If the US chose not to pay its debt to China or China stopped buying the bonds from the US to keep their products cheap, anything could happen to the $. Either country could use the nuclear ☢️ option.

Have a watch of the Mike Maloney video. I agree, crypto’s are currency/fiat but not as much as normal currency and the $. They can all be “printed” for fun now and the Fed and the US Treasury are practically the same dept over the last two months.

 

 

[HawkHybrid]

8 hours ago, RacerCool said:

It took a global pan/plandemic about a month to cause a radical change in the US economy. And as of today we still haven't seen or really understood what things are going to look like long term.

 

so far, how far has the dollar collapsed in this global pandemic?

 

HH

Edited May 12, 2020 by HawkHybrid

[HawkHybrid]

13 hours ago, MancunianStacker said:

I’m not saying it definitely will happen but it certainly could. Debt:Gold ratio is all most will look at. It’s how countries decide on who to trade with and “who’s good for it”. 

 

so you are effectively saying that if the prediction turns out to not

happen then it doesn't count(ie you are not wrong). so there is a

100% correct prediction rate as only predictions that come true

will ever count?

 

HH

Edited May 12, 2020 by HawkHybrid

[MancunianStacker]

53 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

so far, how far has the dollar collapsed in this global pandemic?

 

HH

None (yet). I’m not saying it’s just the US $ either. 

[MancunianStacker]

52 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

so you are effectively saying that if the prediction turns out to not

happen then it doesn't count(ie you are not wrong). so there is a

100% correct prediction rate as only predictions that come true

will ever count?

 

HH

I don’t recall saying “I predict xyz”; It’s Jim Sinclair’s prediction not mine and as he predicted two other spikes in gold prices in the past using the same Debt:Gold ratio, he’s predicting an increase in the price of Gold in $. I do agree with him though (him and Jim Rickard who wrote Currency Wars), I’m still buying gold. I’ve done the £ Debt:Gold figures myself too. In fact if world currencies decided to use Gold as their base (until gradually falling back to pure fiat one day - they always do when the population forgets) then they will probably increase the value of gold even more in order to provide more of a “buffer”. 

Simply saying the gold price in currency will be going up long term. I’m not claiming to be some kind of oracle or recommending that everyone spends all cash on gold either. It’s a better punt than a savings account that guarantees you a loss every year!!! 

I don’t care if his prediction comes true or not either. If it doesn’t go to the moon I’ll be wrong and I can handle being wrong 👍🏻 😁 Feel free to quote me in 5-10 years when I’ll still be stacking gold for the long term.

Best!

MS

[HawkHybrid]

44 minutes ago, MancunianStacker said:

It’s Jim Sinclair’s prediction not mine and as he predicted two other spikes in gold prices in the past using the same Debt:Gold ratio,

 

how has jim sinclair managed to predict two other spikes. maybe because

he makes many predictions and if he gets it wrong it doesn't count?

a broken clock is right twice a day?

I'm saying that his prediction of $50k+/toz in 5 years is crazy.

(he can sweep it all under the rug in 5 years time and make a new prediction,

equally as crazy, no doubt)

 

HH

Edited May 12, 2020 by HawkHybrid

[MancunianStacker]

18 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

how has jim sinclair managed to predict two other spikes. maybe because

he makes many predictions and if he gets it wrong it doesn't count?

a broken clock is right twice a day?

I'm saying that his prediction of 50k+/toz in 5 years is crazy.

(he can sweep it all under the rug in 5 years time and make a new prediction,

equally as crazy, no doubt)

 

HH

Ok HH, you’re saying it’s crazy, I’m not. 

[HawkHybrid]

51 minutes ago, MancunianStacker said:

None (yet)

 

the key word is 'yet'. if a 35%+ drop in the stock market hasn't even

caused the dollar to make a move(obviously a 35%+ drop is simply

too small to even register in the radar), then it could take some time

to get the collapse for gold to make 25x increase.

which is why I say global events take time, lots of time.

 

HH

[MancunianStacker]

2 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

the key word is 'yet'. if a 35%+ drop in the stock market hasn't even

caused the dollar to make a move(obviously a 35%+ drop is simply

too small to even register in the radar), then it could take some time

to get the collapse for gold to make 25x increase.

which is why I say global events take time, lots of time.

 

HH

We can but wait

[Abyss]

A lot of emotional play happens with talking about the the future gold price about something not yet happened. I have been caught off guard with Gold price on several occasions I assumed back 2018 when Gold hit $1200 some sort of manipulation and by extension should go on for next 3-5 years with at most modest price rise of 2 to 3% to account for inflation and had plenty of time to accumulate.

I am sorry to say but Gold like every other commodity can go into cycles and waves of pessimism and optimism reflected in the price. What will the price Gold be next week, next year, 10 years from now? I don't know but such fascinating subject brings into so many different Marco and technical disciplines certainly keeps mind occupied and away from the bat virus stuff going on in the world. Some of the videos I have recently watched and were thought provoking in nature has elements of Gold allocation in your portfolio.

 

Edited May 12, 2020 by Abyss

[MancunianStacker]

Over the last 50 years the price of Gold in £’s has increased 9,400%, that’s 188% per annum (basic). In $’s it has increased 4,800%, that’s 96% per annum (basic).

So, if we extrapolate this forward 10 years, at £1,400 in 2020, we are looking at 1,880% and we come out at £26,320 per oz in 2030.

At $1,700 in 2020, we are looking at 960%, so that’s £16,320 per oz in 2030.

I know Gold hasn’t increased in a steady way over the last 50 years. It has peaks and troughs but long term it’s better than cash in a bank with inflation higher than the interest rate.

It is now classed as a Tier 1 asset globally.

This pandemic and global recession, or depression (possibly) is likely to be worse for the economy than the 2008 crisis (different type of crisis I know). The above %’s could be rather conservative.

If you are in 🇬🇧 it seems like Gold is a better friend to you than if you are American. 

[Abyss]

Recency bias and Extrapolation where the majority of people get caught out. Recency bias thinking well I have also been paid X amount and will continue to be paid and consume goods and services indefinitely into the future as the status quo always stays the same. Extrapolation thinking lead down to well the markets have always gone up and every time I have bought the dip I have always been rewarded hence I should extrapolate this and continue indefinitely. Staying neutral will allow you the ability to see both side of the arguments and try and plan accordingly. I have heard strong evidence all this money printing will lead to hyperinflation in the decades to come and also heard Fed can print to infinity and beyond and will not cause hyperinflation. Compelling arguments and evidence on both sides of the fence. I have come to the realisation that neutrality the best position for myself and have stopped watching certain YouTube channels that have a very pro bias towards the metals.