HonestMoneyGoldSilver

1 minute ago, theman73 said:

I'm just wondering how the gold pushers and silver bashers are feeling now when they know their ill "advice" made so many people to sell their silver on cheap or even worse to don't buy anymore. 

£24.83

We shouldn't count our money while we're still sitting at the table, there'll be plenty of time for counting, when the dealing's done

True what you said. I've always promoted buying silver in responsible and affordable quantities along with gold to keep your gold/silver ratio at a level that supports your objectives and risk tolerance. I've also said many times you can't call gold an investment while stating silver is not an investment when their prices are so heavily correlated. Plenty of room for both gold and silver, they are complimentary and correlated assets 

I remember somebody said not too long ago you'd struggle to sell 2024 KCIIIs at £26 😁

1 minute ago, Gruff said:

Excellent close this week on the Agy..

Yes amazing. That flash crash at $29.15/£23.05 on Wednesday was a blessing in disguise. Have to pinch myself that we smashed $30, hit $31 and there's no sign of a smackdown in sight. It will be super interesting to see what happens on Monday and the rest of next week. We need to hold above $30 for a month minimum before we book it. On recent evidence I should stop using Disney Dollars and look for a hold above £30

1 hour ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Well the old adage is the tortoise and the hare. And I believe this in my lifetime or near to my death that silver will overtake gold. And here me out. Monetary exchange maybe the value with gold but silver is being eaten up too much quicker by industry and is more heavily manipulated. Get your pop popcorn out as Im going to tag @HonestMoneyGoldSilver now. But @HonestMoneyGoldSilver dont go TLDR and bore us to death. He may disagree, but I dont.... industry drives prices more, look at the copper squeeze the past few days. You know whats next its bigger brother....

 

I'm having issues trying to post so I'll keep it brief, maybe 😂

Silver is not only being hoarded and stacked like gold. Silver is being consumed in large quantities. According to the Chinese, the price needs to be a minimum of $100/oz to make recovering the consumed silver economically viable. For China a boom in silver is considered a positive outcome whereas in the west a boom in either gold or silver is not looked upon favourably by the "pet rock" crew at the central banks and TradFi behemoths.

As @sixgun said there are silver deficits. What the magnitude of those deficits are and the balance between east and west, it's hard to say. I like the really boring nerd guy at CPM whose videos get 0 likes when I post them. He's been doing this for 40 years and called bullshit a few years ago when everybody was saying the vaults are empty, the COMEX has no more silver, etc. He was right then. He is now warming to the idea of silver shortages, or perhaps more accurately, a shortage of 999 good delivery silver that's available today. There is no shortage of silver but there is a shortage of the type of silver that people want within the timeframe they want it. The imbalance this year between supply and demand is about 40% of the total production in 2023, that can't be ignored especially when deficits have been compounding in recent years

The fundamentals on silver are solid. In the grand scheme of things $31/£25 is nothing, we're still £5 short of the highs from 2011. There's been a tiny bit of expansionary monetary policy and inflation since 2011. You could pick a figure between £30 and £100 for the true inflation-adjusted price since 2011 and I would probably believe you. According to shadow stats the inflation-adjusted price in 2011 was $67.50 and today even with the boom it's still trading at less than half that.

You can use different figures and get an inflation-adjusted ATH of $189

Anyway, you're totally right, silver is more of an industrial metal than a monetary metal but silver is unique in straddling both of those markets. A lot is talked about the catalysts for the recent price moves in metals. I mentioned one a few months ago that doesn't get a lot of headlines. So one of the main reasons metal prices are so easily manipulated is because the miners and refiners are complicit. They agree to sell their silver in advance in exchange for money now, often selling their finished product at a fraction of spot. Famously some hedge funds and investors have secured options on silver well below $10/oz, which is staggering when you think about it, right? 

So the miners, producers and refiners have had enough of selling their product below market value. Several started to go "naked long" a while ago, refusing to play the game of options and derivatives. Some people might remember the hilariously witty remark I made about finding excuses to keep using that phrase - naked long. I wanna go naked long, don't we all, eh? The people mining and refining the silver control the market if they are brave enough to take the bull by the horns. It seems like a no-brainer to people like us to go naked long on silver but with silver being volatile and the world steeped in uncertainty, doing so is not without risks. I wouldn't be surprised to hear that one of the factors that led to the west losing control of the metal prices was the major producers refusing to dance to their tune. Why not go naked long if China is paying a hefty premium on silver? It seems like a better idea to flog silver to China for $25-30 rather than sell to a Wall Street suit for well below spot

Sorry mate, I was always going to go on an extended rant. I'm done now that I've read the latest from bullionstar. Wow, they've been reading the GMT and SMT, stealing all our best ideas, and consolidated them in one article. This is one of the best comprehensive and free analyses of silver I've come across in a while:

Why a Powerful Silver Bull Market May Be Ahead (bullionstar.com) (written 20th April 2024)

30 minutes ago, theman73 said:

Silver is £23.84

They even made me question my own narrative. The fundamentals on silver are solid. Sanctions against Russia and a lack of willingness to do business with China are exacerbating the situation, pumping the price of all metals, the industrial metals to an even greater extent than monetary metals. Silver of course is both a monetary and industrial metal. Never gets old to poke fun at Dave and his tins of beans 😂😂

That's an almost 11% delta in the positive direction for silver in the last 3 months. If we start rolling out the graphs and studies everybody else loves to quote about the gold/silver ratio, ATHs nominal and ATHs inflation-adjusted, silver has a lot more room to boom than gold from the current price. It's great to see $30 but with inflation and whatnot we're still miles behind the 2011 price (£29.26) and not in the same room as the 1980s price ($49.45 nominal in 1980, which is $189 today)

1 hour ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Yep starmer is Blair deluxe another WEF slob

Indeed. He's been holding meetings with Ursula von der Lying for at least two years, along with His Royal Wokeness, KCIII, about getting the UK back into the EU. I believe that's why we've seen softening tones from Brussels and EU leaders about having moved on from Brexit, now it's time to work together. They are using Russia as a smokescreen but it's about the Supreme Soviet in Brussels dominating the UK and ROI 

1 hour ago, HerefordBullyun said:

I think he wont buckle. They normally follow the FED.

 

I hope you are right mate or we need to prepare for more inflation. It would do great things for gold/silver in GBP but it wouldn't really matter if our profits were eaten by higher bills and transport costs. I don't see how the BoE can even consider cutting before the Fed. They waited for the Fed before hiking so wait before cutting, or better yet, don't cut at all!

4 hours ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Eyes down for metals prices 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

 

That was last night, this morning the odds are 71% of Fed cuts in September

CME FedWatch Tool - CME Group

2 hours ago, Paul said:

£1900 by weekend  

Not outrageous. It depends how the metals react to the resistance above $2400 (current price $2387/£1882) and approaching the ATH of $2431. S***** approaching $30 could also be a factor. The options are either slamming on the brakes or cruising down the Autobahn with the limiter disabled

IMHO the price won't keep continually breaking ATHs over the summer but if it does it's Mars time come Sept-Dec never mind the moon