Gold 2024: How low can it go?

[Leonmarsh]

On 12/12/2023 at 06:40, GoldDiggerDave said:

Does it really matter.....and would it change your life  if you buy within £1400-£1600 this year?   Fair enough if you are buying 20 million quids worth a time, how many oz are people buying the average joe stacker  I doubt they are buying more than an oz per month. 

In the 2 years between 2017 and 2019 it was roughly £1000-£1200 per oz did it matter the day or month  I bought within the 730 day period? Don't need pie chats, don't need some bozo on YT telling me its going to the moon, and I certainly did not need to  check gold price 15 times a day. 

Ive seen people fall into a bit of a trap, they buy gold then they expect it to do something over night and when it doesn't they almost all sell at the wrong time, for the wrong reasons.  

The biggest question I'd be getting people to answer especially now when inflation is stripping some people bare,  " can you afford to hold the gold you are buying regardless of other finical and inflationary factors"?   You have to buy gold and almost forget about it and not worry for the next half  if not full decade.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Get It bloody bought graded and forgotten about 

[GoldDiggerDave]

On 12/12/2023 at 08:21, RDHC said:

Again, good logical thinking. However, there is an alternative: leave it to one's children - sub rosa, of course.

Gold is a fanatic vehicle  for passing down to the kids, UK currency gold bullion being inheritance tax free is extremely attractive.  

 

[SeverinDigsSovereigns]

16 hours ago, MonkeysUncle said:

or Winnie the Pooh becoming US President

He already is. Newsom clearing up the streets of SF and LA for none other than the Mighty Winnie himself. Newsom&Co wouldn't do anything for the residents, and these idiots keep voting for them, and everyone is happy. The unhappy ones run to other states and elect other Newsomites in office and run the places into the same mess they ran away from. Sounds familiar?

[Bars]

On 10/12/2023 at 12:42, Kitalon said:

Something that I've been wondering is how low the price of gold might drop to during 2024. If so when.
Do you think it's possible that it could drop as low as £1500 per ounce, or aren't we likely to see prices like that again?

It would be interesting to hear your thoughts, projections and prophecies for the new year. 🤔

This could be a long thread, gunna sit back and stick the @Kitalon

[JohnA1]

18 hours ago, sovereignsteve said:

There'll be more than a few here who remember around £700 in mid-2015 during the life of this forum. Is it really 8 years? It only seems like yesterday, but still, it's a decent enough time and will be before the majority here started stacking.

No idea where I'm going with this but it's nice to reminisce and £175 sovereigns has a lot to recommend it. 😁

Early 2015 -- ah, my BBP days... (hey, could have done worse eh).

Sheer luck chips away some of the embarassment😆

Edited December 16, 2023 by JohnA1

[Kitalon]

Well 2024 is here. I would like to make a significant investment in gold bullion this year, I'm just waiting for that opportune moment in time. Thankfully I'm quite patient and am in no particular hurry, I'm just wondering at what price I should come in at. I'm keeping my fingers crossed it gets down to the low 1500s, but pending no unforeseen circumstances I can't realistically expect it to fall much lower than that.

[JohnA1]

It's like changing your diet after decades of eating c**p.

The best day is TODAY, not next Monday or next month...

[Kitalon]

I'm not sure I follow. Surely it's better to wait until gold is cheaper so I can buy more than I could today?

[MonkeysUncle]

45 minutes ago, Kitalon said:

Well 2024 is here. I would like to make a significant investment in gold bullion this year, I'm just waiting for that opportune moment in time. Thankfully I'm quite patient and am in no particular hurry, I'm just wondering at what price I should come in at. I'm keeping my fingers crossed it gets down to the low 1500s, but pending no unforeseen circumstances I can't realistically expect it to fall much lower than that.

Buy some now. Don't sit on the fence.

Either throw the lot in in one shot and don't fret over short term movements or divide your pot into monthly amounts and buy some every month.

[MonkeysUncle]

1 minute ago, Kitalon said:

I'm not sure I follow. Surely it's better to wait until gold is cheaper so I can buy more than I could today?

You will never know when "cheap" is. Everytime you ponder you'll be thinking will it go lower... and then up she goes.

Very much a mugs game, and don't get me started on these idiots and their charts. They are fairy stories like horoscopes.

[Fenlander1]

I understand you trepidation of when to buy due to spot price. If you are planning to hold short term then maybe spot price is a concern but for the long term it really is not that important.

By waiting you could miss out on what may become a great price now and you will kick yourself as we all do when we look back and think if only I had invested heavily then.

Spot may drop but it could also rise.

If a good return no risk investment is what you are looking for then gold is probably not the best option but as an option to fiat and a hedge against future inflation its OK.

 

[FriedrichVonHayek]

Pound cost averaging is the best way, just buy some every month.

Only Monkeys pick bottoms.

[Darr3nG]

9 minutes ago, MonkeysUncle said:

these idiots and their charts

Name and shame!  

[Kitalon]

Thanks for your advice. I'm sadly not in a position to be able to buy monthly due to a rather drastic cut in salary but I do have one significant savings pot which I intend to transfer into more tangible assets and after much research I feel that gold bullion is definitely the way I want to go, and then forget about and not touch the lump sum for at least a decade or two. The difference between between buying now or waiting for a more favourable spot price would be for me several ounces. So it just seems like common sense to me, hence my caution and trepidation. I'm only sorry that you think I'm a monkey for trying to use my head. 🤨

[Fenlander1]

Nobody is thinking you are a monkey for trying to use your head infact quite the opposite, you asked for opinions regarding this subject and people are just offering their insights.

Imho the 1st step is to work out whether to collect or stack, spot price is a little less important to a collector.

 

 

[FriedrichVonHayek]

12 minutes ago, Kitalon said:

Thanks for your advice. I'm sadly not in a position to be able to buy monthly due to a rather drastic cut in salary but I do have one significant savings pot which I intend to transfer into more tangible assets and after much research I feel that gold bullion is definitely the way I want to go, and then forget about and not touch the lump sum for at least a decade or two. The difference between between buying now or waiting for a more favourable spot price would be for me several ounces. So it just seems like common sense to me, hence my caution and trepidation. I'm only sorry that you think I'm a monkey for trying to use my head. 🤨

I didn't say you were a Monkey, going all in on any investment is a fool's errand.

Spreading the purchases over months would more likely give you better average price.

Most canny investors slowly build positions.

Or you go all in, and get lucky.

[Kitalon]

Thank you for clarifying. You have certainly given me some food for thought and will consider what you've said about potentially splitting/spreading purchases. There may be better pension-type investments out there but this certainly seems to be the most fun. I will still watch the price of gold with interest and invest when I feel it's most prudent to do so, hence the OP and trying to guage my moment(s) to buy in.

I'm a bit embarrassed I have already shared far more than I intended to about my personal situation and strategy.🤐

Edited January 1 by Kitalon

[Fenlander1]

Knowledge is the best friend. Spot has ranged from £1500 - £1700 in the last 6 months it may go either way in the future.

I have tried catching the falling knife many a time but soon realised that it is better to have than have not.

[Kitalon]

Indeed. I know that I'm already late to the party so need to hedge my bets and cut my losses. But looking at the trends over the past 6 month to a year I can see no reason for things to return to more favourable odds (which has also been some of the advice I've already received). I just want to be prepared to press the button at the right moment.

[Goldfever20]

Spot might even drop back down to £1450. The gap around 1840USD will have to be filled at some point before gold price goes to da moon. 
Patience is key @Kitalon

[katyc]

@Kitalon this (link below) explains the dollar cost averaging concept and I'm pretty sure will make you want to buy some gold without delay.

If I had a lump amount to invest and decided gold was my focus, I would do the following:

Example - 10k intended for gold:

- I'd buy 2k per month over 5 months

- 1k per month over 10 months or

- £500 per month over 20 months.

(The ideal goal would be a fixed amount per month indefinitely- but not going above 10% to 20% of my net worth. Some go for 5% of their worth).

If it was "normal" times and interest rates were not due to drop then I'd go lower and slower. 

However, I am confident (for so many reasons - but the main reason I'll post below this post) is that gold is going to have an incredible 4 to 7 years. Yes, it may have a significant drop before the bull run (often happens before a crash due to liquidity crisis for businesses, banks etc) but that will dwarf the long term growth so don't waste time worrying and look at the big picture (please read the link as it'll explain why there's no point waiting 😊).

Welcome to the world of real money and happy stacking!

https://www.goldavenue.com/en/blog/newsletter-precious-metals-spotlight/is-it-a-good-time-to-buy-gold

Edited January 1 by katyc

[katyc]

I couldn't find the exact chart I was looking for but this one does the job nicely. Recession is coming which means Gold will bull over a handful of years. That's in my opinion and not financial advice of course!

But I wouldn't be surprised if there is a 6 month spell of a price drop - which will be irrelevant longer term. Even if it goes 20%+ down, it then it would likely follow by going hundreds of % up - so I don't care about a short term drop.

Also, look at how much more you pay for food now (40% for many things). At least your fiat currency (junk currency) is going in to real money (gold) and not sat in a bank losing it's value every day. The only way is up with patience and time.

Edited January 1 by katyc

[GoldDiggerDave]

Would you want 50k in the bank with a 5.25% yield year on year of 50k in gold bullion? 
 

 

[Lyrinn]

I think like others on here have noted, while we might see some typical fluctuation, I think that gold might be in for a bit of a period of slow growth for the first quarter of 2024. The price point for it is rapidly going above what most people can afford - rent, rates, taxes, etc., are all eating up more and more of people's monthly budgets (more people also living pay check to pay check and not having an emergency fund to tap into for when things go wrong) and there is less money circulating around that probably reflects actual buying power. So, unless the plan is to sell to dealers (in which case, you would have to hold onto your PM's for a longer period of time to get a realisation of any profits/interest on your investments.

This pessimistic view of course coming from someone who has gold sales threads up at the moment. 

Who knows, maybe there will be another war declared and we'll officially enter WW3 in 2024? Maybe gold will fly off the top of the chart, or it will all get confiscated. The fun part is not knowing, but having the safety net of it being there as a physical asset that has performed very well over time and known human civilisation/history.

[JohnA1]

2 hours ago, FriedrichVonHayek said:

Pound cost averaging is the best way, just buy some every month.

Only Monkeys pick bottoms.

Wise words, said in jest