Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only

[morezone]

It's time to curb my buying at these prices.  Hopefully it'll drop back down at the end of the year when the 2017 releases start filtering.  In the mean time I'm going to dig up my duplicates and move them on.  Everything else is for the long haul and if all goes well, it'll be my children selling them off.

[whitesands1]

Just now, morezone said:

It's time to curb my buying at these prices.  Hopefully it'll drop back down at the end of the year when the 2017 releases start filtering.  In the mean time I'm going to dig up my duplicates and move them on.  Everything else is for the long haul and if all goes well, it'll be my children selling them off.

I agree.  I think there is time to reflect and plan here.  Without doubt the stock markets have taken a pounding, but remember how the predictions were for futher USA interest rate rises and then gold prices falling throughout 2016?

My own personal view is that there is (still) a massive bubble in the stock markets BUT there is too much tied up in them; at a political level they will be like the banks they will not be allowed to fail.  I think that no-one has the ability to control things at this highly leveraged level.  When it is like this anything could happen.

The one thing missing this time is QE by USA, to do anymore will risk massive inflation.  All I can think off is sell on the highs and buy on the dips - should be possible as there has been a lot of cheap gold and silver to buyer over the past few years!

[sovereignsteve]

I don't think this is gold's time to shine yet, it'll drop back a fair bit. It does, however, show you how twitchy investors are getting with world stocks, bonds, oil etc.

Expect more volatilty.

[Paul]

well today looks to be steady enough for both metals 

Usual daily small teeterings, up and down

No mega smack down currently, as we have had many times in the past

[Bumble]

Indeed. I'm surprised at how little correction there has been in gold and the gold miners: usually you expect to see some profit-taking after a sharp increase. This seems to me to be bullish. I was rather hoping for a nice correction in order to buy some more, but now it's just wait and see time. Of course, if things get bad enough, there will be interest rate reductions and more QE and the stock market bubble will inflate one more time at gold's expense, but that game can only be played so many times before it fails.

[whitesands1]

The Price of Gold Just Hit an All Time High

http://fortune.com/2016/02/12/the-price-of-gold-just-hit-an-all-time-high/

An interesting read.  Will be worth having a look at the Silver to Oil ratio too!

Anything could happen.........

[K_theepan]

14 minutes ago, whitesands1 said:

The Price of Gold Just Hit an All Time High

http://fortune.com/2016/02/12/the-price-of-gold-just-hit-an-all-time-high/

An interesting read.  Will be worth having a look at the Silver to Oil ratio too!

Anything could happen.........

It's quite interesting article.

But I don't think you can compare gold to oil present day with past.

Because oil price is manipulated to low.

 

 

[whitesands1]

1 minute ago, K_theepan said:

It's quite interesting article.

But I don't think you can compare gold to oil present day with past.

Because oil price is manipulated to low.

 

 

Agree, just a bit of fun!  Oil not manipulated too low, the producers lost control, they can no longer manipulate too high!

[motorbikez]

18 hours ago, Bumble said:

Indeed. I'm surprised at how little correction there has been in gold and the gold miners: usually you expect to see some profit-taking after a sharp increase. This seems to me to be bullish. I was rather hoping for a nice correction in order to buy some more, but now it's just wait and see time..

I'm not surprised, quality PM miners still have a long way to go to the upside IMHO, if you are thinking of buying any PM miners don't expect any big drops anytime soon, there might be a 5%-10% pull back on the recent surge (some PM miners shares have risen by 40% so far this year). I don't want to go into a long drawn out chatter & reasoning about the state of the markets etc. (you can get plenty of that from the internet LOL)

Personally I think PMs will be on an upward trend the rest of this year especially gold & silver & I would not be surprised to see quality PM miners shares double or more from the start of this year as they magnify the movement in PMs.

 

These are my own opinions, do not buy anything on my say so & don't risk money you can't afford to loose or need quickly.

[HawkHybrid]

http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/precious-metals-need-rest

 

a decent interpretation of the current situation?

 

HH

[MCJ]

1 hour ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

a decent interpretation of the current situation?

Yes, err, um, perhaps, wait, no, um. I have no idea either. Seems to me that's there's too many experts, more than usual, out there guessing at the moment.

[KDave]

Could be be a failed breakout which would be my preference. Honestly I don't think it is though, I think retrace to around $1200 is more likely, then after a base is formed it will go higher. I have seen some elliot wave analysis on the weekly charts suggesting this, with a likely very large rise if the base above $1200 in gold is formed. I hope it doesn't do that because it would mean time to sell some. Plenty of other investment opportunities developing in oil and elsewhere should that happen though. Nobody really knows. 

Having read what I have written and thought about why I hope it doesn't rise, I realise that my journey towards the dark side is complete. I have become full on collector 

[MCJ]

Surely hedging is king in a situation like this? Short oil and FTSE, trade FX, buy bullion gold whilst low, sell into rise, pick up gold producers shares- day trade if required, don't be greedy, take profits when targets reached, happy days. Juggle all of the above and make money. Just buying PMs and hoping to make money, if that's what your main aim is, when the price goes to £xx is going to limit your success. You'll be missing out on all the peeks and troughs. IMHO.

[HawkHybrid]

I think the people that insist that it's the start of a new

bull trend in gold are getting ahead of themselves. as

nothing is confirmed yet.

 

' Markets and stocks continue to be very choppy -- and are showing gap opens both lower and higher. Consequently, holding any trades overnight is not the ideal situation.'

' The metals took off higher -- and the recent strength is not so great'

' I understand I am not giving clear signals…but I am not getting clear signals'

' Cautious trading remains the theme…or just sitting in cash.'

 

he's still  open to the possibilities of both sides of the

argument and realise that it can still swing both ways.

 

many optimists are seeing it as 'finally the bull trend'

and are blind to any other possibilities. it should still

be a case of tread carefully. desperate situations

allow for desperate measures.

 

HH

Edited February 14, 2016 by HawkHybrid

[MCJ]

Will Gold And Silver Purchasers Become Terrorists?

Also highlights why " the bottom " is difficult to predict.

 

I liked this statement. .."We have often stated that smart money, aka controlling interests, buys low, sells high.  It is also axiomatic that unusually large volume surges are from smart money in action.  The public simply do not act in such a coordinated effort in concert to create heavy volume days.  The public only react."

http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/will-gold-and-silver-purchasers-become-terrorists

Edited February 14, 2016 by MCJ

[sovereignsteve]

It's too early to talk of a new gold bull. Technically, although it's broken above the 200 day MA, it's still holding within the confines of a descending wedge, albeit right up against the top line of that wedge. If it breaks through it may do so with significant momentum as there will be a number of stops and orders just outside the top limit of the wedge.

Edited February 14, 2016 by sovereignsteve

[Bumble]

The descending wedge is only evident if you are pricing gold in USD. In almost any other currency there is no downtrend. In GBP and EUR, gold is rising; in CAD, AUD, JPY gold is rising strongly and close to all time highs; is RUB and ZAR gold is rising strongly and well above 2012 peaks; only in CHF and CNY is the price not trending upwards, and that is because CHF is a strong currency and CNY is pegged to the dollar.

[DRooster]

11 hours ago, MCJ said:

Just buying PMs and hoping to make money, if that's what your main aim is, when the price goes to £xx is going to limit your success.

I'm content with limited success.

[MCJ]

1 hour ago, DRooster said:

I'm content with limited success.

What ever floats yer boat?

[goldbones]

On 2/11/2016 at 16:09, Bumble said:

The damn thing about being right is that you still beat yourself up for not committing more. Last week I bought shorts on FTSE and various holdings in gold miners and instead of being happy I'm kicking myself for not holding more.

As to whether it will continue to rise, bear in mind: (1) there is a cyclical element to gold's price - it rose sharply in Q1 last year and still fell back; (2) governments are much more inclined to intervene than they were 8 years ago, either to prop up the stock market or to hold down gold, or both; (3) despite point 2, if the hedge funds smell weakness they will pile in and create a big bandwagon.

Shorting the FTSE 100 is annoying and will continue to be annoying even when you know you are fundamentally correct, a good example would be the first low in march 2008 at 5500 when Bear stearns collapsed by may that year the ftse was back at 6300 even though banks were clearly going belly up people were still in denial.

You will get that again, people will say "this time it is different" and find some positive spin on it and stay in denial, it's annoying but get used to it if you're shorting this market it's par for the course.

[whitesands1]

1 hour ago, goldbones said:

Shorting the FTSE 100 is annoying and will continue to be annoying even when you know you are fundamentally correct, a good example would be the first low in march 2008 at 5500 when Bear stearns collapsed by may that year the ftse was back at 6300 even though banks were clearly going belly up people were still in denial.

You will get that again, people will say "this time it is different" and find some positive spin on it and stay in denial, it's annoying but get used to it if you're shorting this market it's par for the course.

That is very true.  The last time people, who should have know much better, were in total denial.  I think that it is too soon since the last market collapse to have healed many of these people.  That will make markets very volatile.

Markets are still far too high.  This is a symptom of humankind inequality, there are not enough places for the rich to put their money, making bubbles all over the place.  Interesting times!

[Bumble]

Although by most measures the stock markets are expensive, there is still one measure by which they are reasonable: yield. There are still big blue chips with a dividend of 3.5 to 5% which is much higher than anything you can get in a safe bond. The crucial question is whether these companies can maintain their dividends during the coming year. The oil companies clearly cannot. If others, such as pharma and retail, follow suit then there is a long way to fall.

[HawkHybrid]

yield should be covered ideally by at least 1.5-2 times

profit/pe. ie a 5% yield requires 7.5% earnings minimum.

which is a p/e of 13.3 or lower. a 3.5% yield needs a p/e

of 19 or less. on average many companies currently have

a p/e of greater than 20. which means either they make

more money than predicted or the dividend may be at

risk.

 

HH

[motorbikez]

@Bumble Re yield, depends what reserves they have, plenty of companies do not pay out maximum they could , so that in uncertain times they can maintain dividend. Which is often important to share holders & pension funds.

Of course you can rule out all miners most have slashed or cancelled the dividend,with a few exceptions, RRS are actually increasing the final divi by 10%.

 

[BaldyBob]

Yield and P/E are good indicators, but even if they look healthy, keep a good eye on company debt compared with annual profit, and the big one.... pension liabilities.

Edited February 14, 2016 by BaldyBob