Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only

[HerefordBullyun]

1 minute ago, HonestMoneyGoldSilver said:

The narrative that the Fed can't raise rates higher than they are today is plausible but I'm going to have to disagree with you and I can prove it with a single chart:

 

The TL:DR is the red line should always be above the blue line, the blue line being CPI-U and red line being the Federal Funds Effective Rate. We know they are manipulating the blue line due to what you touched on above - the scarcely believable $34 trillion and counting US national debt. If that blue line was accurate the interest burden on the US and yield on Treasuries would rise significantly

The above graph and the abnormal periods when the red line tracked below the blue line for prolonged periods is an explanatory factor in our current inflationary environment along with bubbles in the stock market and cryptocurrency

If we assess rates since 1954 then the current FFER is roughly the historical average (~5.05%). If the red line should generally track above the blue line, and you agree with me that the blue line should be significantly higher, then not only is it possible for the FFER to be higher but indeed it should be higher than the current rate

In the UK our official CPI is 6.7% yet the BoE base rate is only 5.25%. That alone may explain why the UK has higher inflation than the US and EU - we waited too long to start hiking (it should have started several years ago prior to covid) and we haven't hiked aggressively enough

If we assess the above in relation to forward guidance from the Fed and BoE we can understand they know they're messing with the stats and may have to hold rates "higher for longer" with a view to increasing rates, not cutting. Of course this may result in a major recession/black swan event and it probably will but we need that deflationary shock to normalise the CPI-U. That is essentially the tightrope the central bankers are walking - do just enough to cause a "soft landing" and avoid a "hard landing". Whether or not they achieve their objective is certainly open to debate but when you have the majority claiming there is no recession and there won't be one, it gives further room for rate hikes. In the EU it's likely Germany and France will enter recession which will last until Q3 2024 but it will be a "mild" recession or a soft landing, not a cascading failure event like 2008 or 1929

I just believe they hike too much they will crash the economy period.

[Gruff]

32 minutes ago, jultorsk said:

Bank of England holds interest rates at 5.25%

The Bank of England has kept interest rates on hold at 5.25 per cent for the second successive meeting, following the footsteps of other central banks around the world. 

--

No moon? 

Expected, they will try and wait for the Fed to move first. First to blink will get mullered by the corporations

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

4 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

I just believe they hike too much they will crash the economy period.

Yea but that's a necessary evil to defeat inflation and is their unspoken objective. If they want to cause a mild recession and that mild recession is yet to materialise, why wouldn't they continue to hike rates or hold "higher for longer"? According to their stats, "the labour market is tight", and there hasn't been a collapse of house prices, again, hold or hike. It may all be bullshit in the real economy but I don't think we can rule out further rate hikes, especially when in the late summer there was consensus both the Fed and BoE would peak closer to 6%

[HerefordBullyun]

7 minutes ago, HonestMoneyGoldSilver said:

 It may all be bullshit in the real economy but I don't think we can rule out further rate hikes, especially when in the late summer there was consensus both the Fed and BoE would peak closer to 6%

Well that's the real sad reality is that the Fed are painting a rosier economy than whats factually going on. Look at inflation, jobs figures its all load of old tonk. I dont have peter schiffs quote in their for nothing in my sig block. Central bankers are politicians disguised as economists or bankers. They’re either incompetent or liars. So, either way, you’re never going to get a valid answer.

[JohnA1]

2 hours ago, LemmyMcGregor said:

As long as we keep following these policies, gold will go up, because this is the nature of FIAT money, to become worthless. Gold cant go back to $400/oz because it just can't.

Maybe it can go to 4 'new' dollars or pounds or whatever. That's the beauty of fiat - they can chop off zeroes and get away with it. Easier than mining stuff from the ground..

[SidS]

That's also the beauty of gold.

If you'd held the $4 in cash, the revaluation would mean that it has become $0.04 in new dollars. However the $4 old in gold (inflated away to $400 and then devalued) would still equal $4 in new dollars, preserving purchasing power.

Edited November 2, 2023 by SidS

[artalien]

5 hours ago, LemmyMcGregor said:

 

TL; DR
TO DA MOON!

haha - GDR

 

5 hours ago, LemmyMcGregor said:

 

TL; DR
TO DA MOON!

lol I like it. It really is a mind **** that "they" can just magic up money/currency. I'd bet the words are synonymous for most and I include myself in the majority until fairly recently.

Edited November 2, 2023 by artalien

[artalien]

I have inflation as - an increase in the currency supply. Still learning. Also as an increase in demand in a fixed supply environment. maybe.

Edited November 2, 2023 by artalien

[LemmyMcGregor]

4 hours ago, HonestMoneyGoldSilver said:

Yea but that's a necessary evil to defeat inflation and is their unspoken objective. If they want to cause a mild recession and that mild recession is yet to materialise, why wouldn't they continue to hike rates or hold "higher for longer"? According to their stats, "the labour market is tight", and there hasn't been a collapse of house prices, again, hold or hike. It may all be bullshit in the real economy but I don't think we can rule out further rate hikes, especially when in the late summer there was consensus both the Fed and BoE would peak closer to 6%

This idea that interest rates are needed to defeat inflation is another fantasy, all you need to defeat inflation is to budget and stop printing.

4 hours ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Well that's the real sad reality is that the Fed are painting a rosier economy than whats factually going on. Look at inflation, jobs figures its all load of old tonk. I dont have peter schiffs quote in their for nothing in my sig block. Central bankers are politicians disguised as economists or bankers. They’re either incompetent or liars. So, either way, you’re never going to get a valid answer.

You know I love you.

3 hours ago, JohnA1 said:

Maybe it can go to 4 'new' dollars or pounds or whatever. That's the beauty of fiat - they can chop off zeroes and get away with it. Easier than mining stuff from the ground..

That's not dropping down to $400, that's creating a new currency. The only way for the currency would be to reappreciate and gold to go down would be if the were to stop spending and recall currency, but we all know that it will never happen because, as stated, it is being used for their gain at our expenses, the system is not broken, this is how is designed.

22 minutes ago, artalien said:

haha - GDR

 

lol I like it. It really is a mind **** that "they" can just magic up money/currency. I'd bet the words are synonymous for most and I include myself in the majority until fairly recently.

We are all ignorant, and the more we look into it the more we realise that we know nothing.

 

£1,627.12

At this rate, 2k by 2025?

Edited November 2, 2023 by LemmyMcGregor

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

5 hours ago, HerefordBullyun said:

I just believe they hike too much they will crash the economy period.

Due to not hiking earlier and not hiking fast enough, they've already killed us with inflation. A recession without the previous inflation would be preferable to kicking the can down the road, crossing our fingers, and hoping for a soft landing. It may be a soft landing but the full effects of rate hikes won't shake out until 18 months after the rate hikes. That's probably why they have paused instead of continuing with hikes - they figure they've done enough to cause a mild recession already and are waiting to see how it plays out.

If inflation stays above target, the labour market remains tight and we don't see a recession/deflationary event, they will hike again. The previous graph is "less food and energy", with real inflation including the two essentials of life being much higher then the official CPI-U, even if we trust the figures from the chefs at the cook the books club. If we take historical precedent then running the base rate/FFER below CPI will cause further inflation and it's inflation that's killing us, not a recession. I think someone said previously, "I wish the recession would hurry up already so we can get over it and move on". That's pretty much how I feel

[katyc]

2 hours ago, HonestMoneyGoldSilver said:

I think someone said previously, "I wish the recession would hurry up already so we can get over it and move on". That's pretty much how I feel

Pretty sure that may have been me! 😬

[HerefordBullyun]

2 hours ago, HonestMoneyGoldSilver said:

Due to not hiking earlier and not hiking fast enough, they've already killed us with inflation. A recession without the previous inflation would be preferable to kicking the can down the road, crossing our fingers, and hoping for a soft landing. It may be a soft landing but the full effects of rate hikes won't shake out until 18 months after the rate hikes. That's probably why they have paused instead of continuing with hikes - they figure they've done enough to cause a mild recession already and are waiting to see how it plays out.

If inflation stays above target, the labour market remains tight and we don't see a recession/deflationary event, they will hike again. 

I dont believe for one second it will be a Soft landing, nor do I believe they will hike again.

[Gruff]

3 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

I dont believe for one second it will be a Soft landing, nor do I believe they will hike again.

The crash will come gradually, then all at once

[katyc]

2 minutes ago, Gruff said:

The crash will come gradually, then all at once

100%. A slow moving train-wreck that sets on fire and eventually causes an explosion.

Without wanting to sound doom and gloom. But the situation is economics 101 really when you look at history....

[Gruff]

2 minutes ago, katyc said:

100%. A slow moving train-wreck that sets on fire and eventually causes an explosion.

Without wanting to sound doom and gloom. But the situation is economics 101 really when you look at history....

I'm currently reading The creature from Jekyll Island by G Edward Griffith. The US of A had 3 failed central banks before the Fed was created in 1911... 
We're not allowed to learn from history as the bankers control everything.

[monkey]

1 minute ago, Gruff said:

I'm currently reading The creature from Jekyll Island by G Edward Griffith. The US of A had 3 failed central banks before the Fed was created in 1911... 
We're not allowed to learn from history as the bankers control everything.

I've been after a hard copy of that for a while. Struggling to find one for reasonable cash.

[HerefordBullyun]

3 minutes ago, Gruff said:

I'm currently reading The creature from Jekyll Island by G Edward Griffith. The US of A had 3 failed central banks before the Fed was created in 1911... 
We're not allowed to learn from history as the bankers control everything.

9000 banks failed in the great depression 

[Paul]

10 minutes ago, katyc said:

100%. A slow moving train-wreck that sets on fire and eventually causes an explosion.

Without wanting to sound doom and gloom. But the situation is economics 101 really when you look at history....

Snowflakes 🌨️🌨️ ❄️❄️ keep landing

one by one

On the mountain side of ever increasing debt/borrowing/credit default swaps/balance transfers/refinancing

It will be one snowflake to many and then it starts . . . . . . . . 

[Gruff]

5 minutes ago, monkey said:

I've been after a hard copy of that for a while. Struggling to find one for reasonable cash.

I bought it off Amazon sadly, but I see they have hard backed versions now for £34. Not cheap, but worth it's weight

[HerefordBullyun]

9 minutes ago, Gruff said:

I bought it off Amazon sadly, but I see they have hard backed versions now for £34. Not cheap, but worth it's weight

Ive got loads of financial books - the Millioniare next door, The psychology of money, Collusion by Nomis Prinis, House of Morgan (the entire history of JP Morgan, Ponzi Planet - Mitch Fierstien, Currency wars - James rickards, The Real Crash (this is written post crash and 2008 prediction)by Peter Schiff, End the Fed - Ron Paul, Ponzi Supernova (audiobook) about Madoff

All are worth reads or listens on audiobook

Edited November 2, 2023 by HerefordBullyun

[Gruff]

2 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Ive got loads of financial books - the Millioniare next door, The psychology of money, Collusion by Nomis Prinis, House of Morgan (the entire history of JP Morgan, Ponzi Planet - Mitch Fierstien, Currency wars - James rickards, The Real Crash (this is written post crash and 2008 prediction)by Peter Schiff, End the Fed - Ron Paul, Ponzi Supernova (audiobook) about Madoff

All are worth reads or listens on audiobook

Fore-armed is fore-warned

[HerefordBullyun]

1 minute ago, Gruff said:

Fore-armed is fore-warned

If you know the enemy and know yourself you need not fear the results of a hundred battles. Sun Tzu
 

[Paul]

4 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Ive got loads of financial books - the Millioniare next door, The psychology of money, Collusion by Nomis Prinis, House of Morgan (the entire history of JP Morgan, Ponzi Planet - Mitch Fierstien, Currency wars - James rickards, The Real Crash (this is written post crash and 2008 prediction)by Peter Schiff, End the Fed - Ron Paul, Ponzi Supernova (audiobook) about Madoff

All are worth reads or listens on audiobook

Golds going to da'mooooooooooooon 🚀🚀🚀 I read it here, someone wrote here ........ Once 

I forget who  🤔

Something like James or James would say I think 

[katyc]

8 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Ive got loads of financial books - the Millioniare next door, The psychology of money, Collusion by Nomis Prinis, House of Morgan (the entire history of JP Morgan, Ponzi Planet - Mitch Fierstien, Currency wars - James rickards, The Real Crash (this is written post crash and 2008 prediction)by Peter Schiff, End the Fed - Ron Paul, Ponzi Supernova (audiobook) about Madoff

All are worth reads or listens on audiobook

Gun to your head: You have to pick ONE....?

go go GO!

[katyc]

19 minutes ago, Paul said:

Snowflakes 🌨️🌨️ ❄️❄️ keep landing

one by one

On the mountain side of ever increasing debt/borrowing/credit default swaps/balance transfers/refinancing

It will be one snowflake to many and then it starts . . . . . . . .