HawkHybrid

how many people who are holding stocks are also
holding gold?
 
HH

we might be looking at 2011-2015 wave A
then 2015 until sometime 2020 wave B
(assuming wave A = wave B in timing, in reality
we don't know until wave C is clearly confirmed
to have started)
2020 until maybe 2024 will then be wave C.
 
this is all assuming it's a recognisable complex
combination and not some really complicated
wave.
 
many pullbacks are structured in 3 waves,
given the names A,B and C.
the middle wave B is a rally (up wave) within the
larger pullback. you can see how the 1985-1987
wave B was within the larger pullback from
1980-2002. it was an up trending wave within the
price confinement of the larger pullback wave.
so the pullback wave goes: down, up, down.
the most common fib ratio for a wave B is to
retrace 61.8% of the wave A that preceded it.
for gold this would be ~$1600.
now that we've hit $1600 it's a matter of waiting to
see what happens.
 
HH

just remember to not let the misses handle your
sales thread
 
HH

just remember to not let the misses handle your
sales thread
 
HH

just remember to not let the misses handle your
sales thread
 
HH

fti my understanding of elliott wave stacks the odds
against a tradable buy physical position in gold for
this winter. the duration of likely moves up in price
in the coming year doesn't give enough room for error
against the risk.
likely cases for both bull and bear gives meagre gains
for holding physical during 2020. a buy maybe in late
2020 looks more likely a better risk to reward ratio.
 
HH

https://thesilverforum.com/topic/25363-my-take-on-gold-short-term-trend-graphic/
 
I'm currently waiting to see if gold is going to
get to ~$1415 this winter.
 
HH

I'm with sixgun and others on this one.
 
climate change is a fact.
(look it up, climate change throughout the
history of the earth)
 
man responsible for climate change is a total
scam.(not one piece of evidence that is remotely
conclusive to suggest this)
 
this is not to say that we shouldn't constantly
aim to reduce emissions of the stinky stuff. we
should do so at our own pace. anyone who
suggests that you should do so faster than your
own pace, is out to scam you.
I'd like to see how many of the educated scientists
live like hermits. after all they have all the required
knowledge and qualification to cut their own
personal emissions right to the bone.
 
HH

silver is up cos gold is up.
gold is up cos it failed to break below the $1490
support(futures) on the 18th.
 
HH

I'm with sixgun and others on this one.
 
climate change is a fact.
(look it up, climate change throughout the
history of the earth)
 
man responsible for climate change is a total
scam.(not one piece of evidence that is remotely
conclusive to suggest this)
 
this is not to say that we shouldn't constantly
aim to reduce emissions of the stinky stuff. we
should do so at our own pace. anyone who
suggests that you should do so faster than your
own pace, is out to scam you.
I'd like to see how many of the educated scientists
live like hermits. after all they have all the required
knowledge and qualification to cut their own
personal emissions right to the bone.
 
HH

you are not acknowledging the facts. you keep on
saying that we are in decline.(fact). accept this
we are in decline very, very slowly.(fact).
no one is disputing your fact that you repeat over
and over. problem is you don't accept that it's
happening very, very slowly. I don't get how you
look at the charts and not accept that the decline
in the £ started over 70 years ago. fact is, the
currency collapse in zimbabwe has happened very
quickly(years) and the currency collapse in the uk
is taking much longer(decades).
(I don't claim to understand why it is, I just try to
see what the data is telling me)
 
what's the truth about the uk's access to food today?
https://friendsoftheearth.uk/food-waste
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/02/no-time-leftovers-astonishing-scale-food-waste-uk-around-world/
 
I didn't say your facts are wrong, I said you
exaggerate the truth because you consistently
forget to add the important fact that it's happening
slowly.
can it speed up? yes it can, but do we have any
facts that will back up that theory?
 
people are flexible, people will change. will england
change by the end of the 2020's? of course it will.
 
HH

this is an exaggeration of the truth.
the uk produces most(if not all) of the potatoes
that we eat(staple food). what happened when
brexit hit and the pound plummeted so that
imports were expensive? did you not see a
magical increase of 'produced in the uk' foods
turn up on the shelves?
the most important thing is people are flexible.
uk can't grow every type of food but we have
the capacity to grow a lot more of our staple
foods, we simply choose to not do that right
now.
technology, farming methods, efficiency in the
use of resources/time, sharing of data are all
significantly better than they used to be.
 
predicting a collapse in 6 years time is nothing but
excessive scaremongering. 70+ years on, the £ is
still making it's imminent collapse following the
world wars.
 
HH

this is an exaggeration of the truth.
the uk produces most(if not all) of the potatoes
that we eat(staple food). what happened when
brexit hit and the pound plummeted so that
imports were expensive? did you not see a
magical increase of 'produced in the uk' foods
turn up on the shelves?
the most important thing is people are flexible.
uk can't grow every type of food but we have
the capacity to grow a lot more of our staple
foods, we simply choose to not do that right
now.
technology, farming methods, efficiency in the
use of resources/time, sharing of data are all
significantly better than they used to be.
 
predicting a collapse in 6 years time is nothing but
excessive scaremongering. 70+ years on, the £ is
still making it's imminent collapse following the
world wars.
 
HH

yes, it's no accident that gold futures dropped from
~$1530.(the same broad level that was support at
the end of august)
 
HH

here's my gsr maths.(with hindsight)
from the 2011 highs gsr is low.
holders of gold until dec 2015 retained 1050/1900
or 55% of their fiat gold value.
silver holders retained 14/50 or 28% of their fiat
silver value.
those who sold gold and silver for currency in 2011
retained 100% of their fiat currency value.
ie both gold and silver are miserable holds from
the tops(low gsr).
currency beats both(from 2011-2015) and we're not
talking small percentages either.
it cost people 45% of their fiat value holdings when
they thought they were playing it safe with only
holding gold. they couldn't recognise that fiat
paper holdings would beat both gold and silver over
a four year time frame.(contrary to what metals
pumpers tell you)
 
with hindsight what should I be holding from a low
gsr?
 
we don't know when the next top is, but we can
keep on practising and trying to improve.
 
HH

here's my gsr maths.(with hindsight)
from the 2011 highs gsr is low.
holders of gold until dec 2015 retained 1050/1900
or 55% of their fiat gold value.
silver holders retained 14/50 or 28% of their fiat
silver value.
those who sold gold and silver for currency in 2011
retained 100% of their fiat currency value.
ie both gold and silver are miserable holds from
the tops(low gsr).
currency beats both(from 2011-2015) and we're not
talking small percentages either.
it cost people 45% of their fiat value holdings when
they thought they were playing it safe with only
holding gold. they couldn't recognise that fiat
paper holdings would beat both gold and silver over
a four year time frame.(contrary to what metals
pumpers tell you)
 
with hindsight what should I be holding from a low
gsr?
 
we don't know when the next top is, but we can
keep on practising and trying to improve.
 
HH

here's my gsr maths.(with hindsight)
from the 2011 highs gsr is low.
holders of gold until dec 2015 retained 1050/1900
or 55% of their fiat gold value.
silver holders retained 14/50 or 28% of their fiat
silver value.
those who sold gold and silver for currency in 2011
retained 100% of their fiat currency value.
ie both gold and silver are miserable holds from
the tops(low gsr).
currency beats both(from 2011-2015) and we're not
talking small percentages either.
it cost people 45% of their fiat value holdings when
they thought they were playing it safe with only
holding gold. they couldn't recognise that fiat
paper holdings would beat both gold and silver over
a four year time frame.(contrary to what metals
pumpers tell you)
 
with hindsight what should I be holding from a low
gsr?
 
we don't know when the next top is, but we can
keep on practising and trying to improve.
 
HH

with the benefit of hindsight...
I would buy gold when the gsr is high.
sell both gold and silver when the gsr is low
(ie currency outperforms both following a
low gsr)
 
is exchanging swapping out one losing trade
for another?
 
HH

fakes are usually thicker or bigger as they use
less dense cheaper metals to try to trick you(in
order to turn a profit).
 
you should check the coin face versus a known
good copy/picture. I'd be tempted to be less
concerned about it being a fake if it's just the rim
being lower. (a non coin/metals seller would not
be my first choice to buy from)
 
HH

fakes are usually thicker or bigger as they use
less dense cheaper metals to try to trick you(in
order to turn a profit).
 
you should check the coin face versus a known
good copy/picture. I'd be tempted to be less
concerned about it being a fake if it's just the rim
being lower. (a non coin/metals seller would not
be my first choice to buy from)
 
HH

fakes are usually thicker or bigger as they use
less dense cheaper metals to try to trick you(in
order to turn a profit).
 
you should check the coin face versus a known
good copy/picture. I'd be tempted to be less
concerned about it being a fake if it's just the rim
being lower. (a non coin/metals seller would not
be my first choice to buy from)
 
HH

all analysts have been wrong.
(there's no such thing as a working crystal
ball)
don't get caught up on whether you are
right or wrong.
the important thing is to make more
money than that which you lose. it's about
stacking the odds in your favour. it's ok to
follow a strategy and then lose money on
trades. as long as your strategy favours
you making money overall. it's not about
being right on every single trade.
 
I know that if I call lower on every queen card
I will get some wrong. the odds favour me
getting more right than wrong. there for I will
call lower every time I see a queen.
 
HH

all analysts have been wrong.
(there's no such thing as a working crystal
ball)
don't get caught up on whether you are
right or wrong.
the important thing is to make more
money than that which you lose. it's about
stacking the odds in your favour. it's ok to
follow a strategy and then lose money on
trades. as long as your strategy favours
you making money overall. it's not about
being right on every single trade.
 
I know that if I call lower on every queen card
I will get some wrong. the odds favour me
getting more right than wrong. there for I will
call lower every time I see a queen.
 
HH

markets usually have broad trends that over
long periods of time have a historical higher
chance of happening.
this helps you gauge which times are better
for buying and when it's better to take profits.
for example if a multi month retracement
happens from near this point then the odds
favour buying into that pullback. you can't
accurately predict it will happen. it's a case
of if you see it happening then you know the
odds favour buying.
(think of it like playing brucies higher or lower
game. if a queen comes up then you call it
lower. you can't predict when a queen will come
up, you just know what to do if it does come up)
 
(trading preparation is about being able to
recognise and wait for when a high probability
chance presents itself)
 
HH

there's no affect on the longer term shorting of
gold. similarly the longs that lost money on last
year's drop until august have no affect on the
longer term longs.
 
HH