My first trade - Shell / BP

[KDave]

BP, Shell and Total are in the top 10 for gas producers, I don't have any yet but would like some Gazprom (Russia) this year and Enbridge (Canada), then that's pretty much all geography covered. 

Mid-small cap producers I need to research this year. I think another crash is still possible, but given the state of the oil market in regards to supply I think the danger for oil companies has passed. Those with weak books will be visible by now with a few quarters behind us, should make picking the ones that will survive such a crash and later prosper easier.

The narrative will remain against oil and gas for years by the way, this will be a true contrarian position that will be reflected in the long term return for those who can hold on and avoid being shaken out. All imo obvs.  

[Stacktastic]

2 hours ago, KDave said:

BP, Shell and Total are in the top 10 for gas producers. 

Yeah BP makes total sense (do you get the pun 😛 ). I think I will stick with them as Bernard is sound, plus they are very proactive at going green, so you get the best of both worlds over 10 years or more, plus a higher dividend again at some point. I want to transition profits from bull cycle stocks and growth stocks to high dividend, emerging market & blue chips over the next 20 years. 

As this is a general trading thread now - I found an amazing site today.  https://www.finviz.com I bet this is commonly used TBH. 
I want to dip my toe into day trading as I think I would be good at it, plus it distracts me from the madness outside. 

Anyhow I noticed that IBM lost 10% share price today as they have not met thier earning predictions. 
Solid company well adapted for a long term hold for the ai future we are going into (plus they have global scale), so I don't care if it tanks. 
I have bought one share at a whopping £85 near the bottom (my smallest investment).  
With another buy 1 share order if it goes lower. 

Lets see what happens over the next day or week. Im expecting it to go up at least, the candles are looking really good on the upside. 
I am not a fan of being in the NASDAQ at all TBH, for any period under a month. Bubble waiting to burst. 
Wish i had a spare £3000 I can loose though to have riden the Tesla E-train as I would have x4 my money at least!!.

The Scottish Mortgage Trust went up 7-800% since March. 
 

Edited January 22, 2021 by Stacktastic

[KDave]

I get it, its totally worth owning Total just for that kind of thing in my view the balance sheet is just a bonus 

I also own Exxon, Chevron and Repsol all integrated oil and gas, I think the US companies are in the top 10 for gas producers as well. As a UK investor I decided my biggest exposure should be BP then Shell, a decision made due to the dividend withholding tax situation of the others (15% US, 19% Spain, 28% French), but I wish I had bought more of the others, even after withholding tax the foreign oil companies are higher yield than Shell. I think in the future I will buy the foreign companies in my SIPP as I believe the shares are then exempt withholding tax, I could be wrong. That would leave BP, Shell and Gazprom for the ISA plus any mid/small caps I like the look of this year.

Going green is window dressing. It will not make them any money compared to conventional energy production but will assist them in other ways. BP will be producing hydrogen to mix with gas, using the electricity it generates from offshore for example. Shell will no doubt do the same with its investments. There just isn't any money in renewable electricity, the costs in vs what you get out don't add up, certainly no where near conventional energy. 

Tesla are part of the bubble but you are right, money was there to be made. Easy to see in hindsight, but I always seem to call bubble too early every time. The trouble of being over analytical and looking for a reason for it to go up - you would think by now I would have learned that reason is only a small part of the market. Most of it is emotion. Tesla doesn't make any money, relys on carbon credits to account for a profit but its meant to be a car manufacturer. Its reliant on borrowing and equity placing to raise funds, can't pay for anything from cashflow because there isn't any. The first situation is untenable with what's coming regarding inflation and interest rates, the later is what they will do when they can no longer borrow = not good for an investor. Its a 'next hot thing' or 'piece of the action' stock, people are not looking at it rationally. I wish I had realised that earlier, same goes for bitcoin, its worth no more than any other crypto but it doesn't matter.

[Kman]

1 hour ago, KDave said:

Tesla are part of the bubble but you are right, money was there to be made. Easy to see in hindsight, but I always seem to call bubble too early every time. The trouble of being over analytical and looking for a reason for it to go up - you would think by now I would have learned that reason is only a small part of the market.

100% spot on

Speculation and then momentum can carry things a long way before any fundamentals enter the picture

I drew in a bottoming pattern for Shell with a top at 10, I wanted fundamentals to bring it above that an as entry, vaccine news sparked it to life and I wasn't interested because it was rising from speculation, but speculation was always likely to front run real recovery in demand

In certain situations it's better just to go with the tide whether you think the move is sound, too soon or anything else

Edited January 22, 2021 by Kman

[Stacktastic]

1 hour ago, KDave said:

 its totally worth owning Total

15% US

Going green is window dressing.

 I always seem to call bubble too early every time.

Most of it is emotion.

 its meant to be a car manufacturer.

I have not looked into Total, but as you say Im happier with the LSE oil company. 

Yes thats a problem - its flipping ludicrous, but if a company like energy transfer go back to 20% dividend I can live with that

I think its better to spot a bubble and avoid it. I am the same with crypto.
yes I have missed out on a lot of profit, but I could have lost the same.
Same with most of the stock market at present outside of tangibles IMO.

Yes this is great. To me its like watching a cartoon tbh. Especially with that vaccine overreaction c**p in November. 
If you can be on it or even predict it in advance you can actually clear up at the moment. 
I think as there are sop many investors like myself using apps & also ai trading, its become a lot more predictable, but what do I know??

I was under the impression tesla was a data company as they track and monitor all the people who own the cars (lets face it thats big now), plus they are getting in to the solar stuff and renewables. There is also Space X & Boring, but not sure if its connected. The big problem i would have with owning Tesla shares is its largely up to Elon. If he dies it's screwed. I can see him becoming a mad scientist tbh. he has all the hall marks. his 5g satellite licensing is scary. would be cool to have a real life iron man though.

 

Edited January 22, 2021 by Stacktastic

[Stacktastic]

20 minutes ago, Kman said:

I drew in a bottoming pattern for Shell with a top at 10.

Analytics is all good, but if oil hits $70 a barrel the companies like BP will skyrocket. We wont be locked in our houses for the rest of the decade* so demand will come back big time. Oil is not only required for societies to run, but it's controlled by seriously powerful people/nations who have people in the right places. It's also tangible so very useful in an economical shitestorm (imminent) - not far off from some PM's. It's used as the national currency in some places - or the currency is based on it or somehting like that. I like that reasoning if not short term but medium term. Im no expert though. 

*Or will we ....👻

Edited January 22, 2021 by Stacktastic

[Kman]

1 minute ago, Stacktastic said:

Analytics is all good, but if oil hits $70 a barrel it will skyrocket. We wont be locked in our houses for the rest of the decade* & oil is not only required for societies (& controlled by seriously powerful people), but its also tangible (so useful in an economical shitestorm) and even used as the national currency in some places - or the currency is based on it. Based on that Im in.

*Or will we ....👻

Yes what I meant was when 10 was broken that would signify a positive change, that would be the start of the price recovery

What I got wrong was wanting the recovery to start on fundamentals when speculation, in this case news of a vaccine, was always likely to front run

[Stacktastic]

12 minutes ago, Kman said:

Yes what I meant was when 10 was broken that would signify a positive change, that would be the start of the price recovery

What I got wrong was wanting the recovery to start on fundamentals when speculation, in this case news of a vaccine, was always likely to front run

Oh OK. sorry I was not familiar with 10. |

It seems to be relentless to be fair. its bounced back nicely today. 
I still feel it might fall again.

Vaccine news is great as it was a false hope.
Your 100% right about markets being emotional. 

Based on that you can manipulate it.
I bet there are old time traders making a killing on a monthly basis right now. 

In trading you need to specialise I think & live it for some time until you really know the flow. 
Its fascinating really. 

I have made 15p today on my £85 investment btw. woohoo. 😛

If it plummet though i shall pick up another share and so on. 
I think thats a sensible strategy tbh for such a huge organisation??? 
Im just experimenting I like to do that. I just need a winning formula really & repeat. 

Balls deep in some way like with all the money Have in mining stocks.

But xI need to take a leaf out of your book and be more analytical also - full skill set. 

Edited January 22, 2021 by Stacktastic

[Kman]

3 minutes ago, Stacktastic said:

Oh OK. sorry I was not familiar with 10.

It seems to be relentless to be fair. its bounced back nicely today. 
I still feel it might fall again.

Vaccine news is great as it was a false hope.
Your 100% right about markets being emotional. 

Based on that you can manipulate it.
I bet there are old time traders making a killing on a monthly basis right now. 

Sorry £10

[KDave]

18 minutes ago, Kman said:

100% spot on

Speculation and then momentum can carry things a long way before any fundamentals enter the picture

I drew in a bottoming pattern for Shell with a top at 10, I wanted fundamentals to bring it above that an as entry, vaccine news sparked it to life and I wasn't interested because it was rising from speculation, but speculation was always likely to front run real recovery in demand

In certain situations it's better just to go with the tide whether you think the move is sound, too soon or anything else

The only fundamental for me was always that oil is energy and the global companies that produce it were at 30 year lows. Everything else, the inflation scenario and macro work was a bonus reason to buy. 

I learned a while back that every short term move in a share price is speculation, its noise and trying to time a bottom is impossible. I have not learned the lessons for jumping in on the way up.

Oil is a good example of the other side of that irrational market psychology, people were running away from the majors irrationally because the price was falling that was all. People were selling shares at 30 year lows thinking oil was finished. The herd psychology that creates bubbles works both ways I guess, though I am more comfortable taking a position on the way down. I wish I could bin off that mindset from time to time so I can get on the fundamental-less band wagon scenario and risk becoming a bag holder for some gains. So many gains lost over my investing experience because of that.

I would say the tide has certainly not moved on oil yet, sentiment is not anywhere near. I read the other day that oil is "sunsetting" can you believe that? Its finished. Its dead. Get out while you can 

Prices are still at decade lows in some cases though if we get this expected stock market crash there will perhaps be a better opportunity. 

[Stacktastic]

 

14 hours ago, Kman said:

Sorry £10

Right got you. A fundamental resistance level. 
I got the whole point of that recently when watching the gold prices. 

14 hours ago, KDave said:

trying to time a bottom is impossible. I have not learned the lessons for jumping in on the way up.
if we get this expected stock market crash there will perhaps be a better opportunity. 

Oil is a good example of the other side of that irrational market

Getting in at the bottom is possible as I have done it with two of my mining stocks, but it was a ball ache and took up too much time. 
I think as I thought I got the bottom recently and it was anything but, but I learnt a lot, while loosing little. 
Its annoying when it keeps going down, for example Sol Gold is 4% down & -£66. I thought I had nailed it, but no. 
The candles are really handy, i was just using a line chart before!!

You can time the market - I dont know why people keep saying you cant - depends on the stock & cycle. 
Emotional and cyclical stocks are great as they constantly present buying opportunities. 
Gold is behaving fabulously as its hitting the lows & scaring people out of the positions. 
If it does not rally to all time highs this year or next I will be very suprised.

As per Oil, the fundamentals are fabulous, even if things get back to normal & there are no wars, food shortages etc.
the damage has been done with dollar devaluation - that in itself is enough. 

One thing is for sure at some point in the next decade it will crash, it always has and always will. Buffet knows this. 
Patience, a game plan and capital on the side is key. Sitting back and waiting too as crashes can go on for months/years. 
I think last year was a fluke aided by the stimulus cheques personally as it makes no sense at all. 

Having said that long term holds (like Amazon Johnson & Johnson, Coke .... with 50% off) are worth grabbing & keeping if they bottom and come back. 
Its easy to look at a stock and think WOW thats cheap, but in actual fact it was grossly overvalued and still is LOL.  

Edited January 23, 2021 by Stacktastic

[KDave]

If you got in at the exact bottom was it luck or judgement? Hard to prove either way, but I know which one is safer to believe from the viewpoint of investing psychology/human factor.

A good point regarding the amount of energy it takes to attempt that process, this I think is the more important point. Trying to time a entry like that costs time and energy, compared say to averaging in over time, or using ladders and treating each one as a gift from the market. Psychology; if you think you have timed the bottom and it keeps falling that is damaging to resolve hold, and erodes trust in ones judgement, when all that should have been sorted out before going to buy said stock. You make the judgement call when you say "I want to own that compay for xyz reasons", its done, trying then to time an entry is adding uncertainty to the process that can easily override the reason for investing in the first place. Compare timing the bottom on a psychology perspective to setting ladders, each one is a gift from the market rather than a correct or incorrect judgement call. Perhaps that only works for me because I am investing for the long term, which is much easier than trading for the mind as well, if you are holding for the long run you can ladder in and forget about it, less energy required. 

 

 

Edited January 23, 2021 by KDave

[KDave]

Those 3 stocks you mention are not my first picks but given how large and diversified they are they will likely do well. Amazon would be my bottom pick of the 3 specifically because of the retailer side of it. Profit margins will be squeezed for them when inflation takes hold, prices will go up for consumers and volume will drop on top. Not to mention 'tech bubble'. 

J&J and coke are the same story, consumer stocks, though I remember from the last recession that when people are hard up they stop spending on non essential items and start spending more on food and drink, the quick and easy wins for morale. People still buy the essentials so perhaps all 3 will be OK over the decade. 

[Stacktastic]

2 hours ago, KDave said:

If you got in at the exact bottom was it luck or judgement?

or using ladders and treating each one as a gift from the market. 

You mean buy the dips I guess? Im treating the mining stocks like physical. Buy into it when they are on sale and add to the positions. 
Im selling them off though if they meet a reasonable high, probbaly start taking profits if they get to last summers level. 
Im happy shorting if it meets a set level (not worked that out yet - £2,500 gold £50 silver is a good target). 
I will then transition the profits to another sector, or back into mining if it show signs of going again.
Thats the plan anyway. Keep it simple and stick to rules. 

2 hours ago, KDave said:

Those 3 stocks you mention are not my first picks

Mine neither tbh. just the first ones I thought of. 

I would probably get the best solid 6% or more dividend paying stocks that I can hold longer term (BP would be in there).
Exposure to China and emerging markets would also be key as the west is screwed LOL. 
I would say the next reserve currency will be China or a mixed bag of a few countries backed by one digital universal currency of some sort??,
It will probably be heavily weighted to China in any situation and possibly the UK as they have the offshore spiders web cartel

I would want exposure to the tech revolution certainly! I like Scottish Mortgage Trust. 
They are not a PLC and can buy non public traded companies before they IPO. 
You get great exposure to Tesla, Amazon, Nio and stuff like that.
Like Arc invest, but with a less smug fund manager
They take the guesswork out of stock picking & it continuously performs. 
Sound management and the trust has been going for 109 years!! Bailey Gifford.

Having said that I would pick one of the following related to how much it has dropped. 
I think I would only buy them if they were seriously on sale - 50%. 

Nividia
Apple 
Tesla
Pintrest
Etsy
Fiverr
Upwork
SpaceX if that IPO's
Virgin Galactic  

I don't like these companies based on thier privacy policies/owners/de-ep sta.te ties, but they are successful!!  
Microsoft
Alphabet
Facebook
Netflix

The funny thing is I owned 80% of these in November for a grand total of 20 minutes LOL. 
I made £1000+in ten minutes & they went back down again through all the stop losses, which i set just above buy in levels (20-30% down) 😛

What would everyone else buy if you have 1 day to invest & you could only choose 5 companies, funds or other investments??

Edited January 23, 2021 by Stacktastic

[KDave]

2 hours ago, Stacktastic said:

You mean buy the dips I guess? Im treating the mining stocks like physical. Buy into it when they are on sale and add to the positions. 
Im selling them off though if they meet a reasonable high, probbaly start taking profits if they get to last summers level. 
Im happy shorting if it meets a set level (not worked that out yet - £2,500 gold £50 silver is a good target). 
I will then transition the profits to another sector, or back into mining if it show signs of going again.
Thats the plan anyway. Keep it simple and stick to rules. 

Yes basically buy the dips, take a partial position and then set targets to the downside to buy more, buy all the way averaging down until allocated. If the dips don't come then its cost average in over time until allocated. See what the market provides, requires no energy and acknowledges that price movements are unpredictable and out of ones hands, but attempts to take best advantage of the unpredictability. Who knows if its right or wrong. There is a danger that you could get the initial entry so wrong that you buy a falling knife and it never comes back, but if you have chosen a company that kind of thing would have to be down to bad luck or poor research. There is risk in every company though, for example BP might be a major company but what is to stop another deep water horizon, could happen at any time. 

China/Emerging markets I have no opinion because its mixed on China, Biden is CCP friendly but the dollar may have bottomed and could act as a headwind for emerging markets until the next downleg in a couple of years, but who knows. 

No doubt some of those tech companies will do very well over the coming years. In fact after the pandemic most of the big online companies like Amazon will be last man standing type thing, medium and small businesses killed off with a retail monopoly situation for Amazon. Netflix, Alphabet (Youtube/Google), Microsoft they are going no where because of who owns them. There are increasingly more companies doing the youtube facebook and twitter thing though, I am on some of the alternative sites and they are growing rapidly. The problem I have with tech now is I have so many other places to put money I don't even want to start looking into which tech companies are worth buying or not. If the balance sheets look anything like Tesla then I would not be interested even at 50% off, given the expected monetary conditions of the next few years.  

[Stacktastic]

1 hour ago, KDave said:

Yes basically buy the dips, take a partial position and then set targets to the downside to buy more, buy all the way averaging down until allocated. If the dips don't come then its cost average in over time until allocated. See what the market provides, requires no energy and acknowledges that price movements are unpredictable and out of ones hands, but attempts to take best advantage of the unpredictability. Who knows if its right or wrong. There is a danger that you could get the initial entry so wrong that you buy a falling knife and it never comes back, but if you have chosen a company that kind of thing would have to be down to bad luck or poor research. There is risk in every company though, for example BP might be a major company but what is to stop another deep water horizon, could happen at any time. 

China/Emerging markets I have no opinion because its mixed on China, Biden is CCP friendly but the dollar may have bottomed and could act as a headwind for emerging markets until the next downleg in a couple of years, but who knows. 

No doubt some of those tech companies will do very well over the coming years. In fact after the pandemic most of the big online companies like Amazon will be last man standing type thing, medium and small businesses killed off with a retail monopoly situation for Amazon. Netflix, Alphabet (Youtube/Google), Microsoft they are going no where because of who owns them. There are increasingly more companies doing the youtube facebook and twitter thing though, I am on some of the alternative sites and they are growing rapidly. The problem I have with tech now is I have so many other places to put money I don't even want to start looking into which tech companies are worth buying or not. If the balance sheets look anything like Tesla then I would not be interested even at 50% off, given the expected monetary conditions of the next few years.  

spot on. 

I think thats a perfectly sane way to do things. Enter in a position in a 3-4 month time frame at the best point possible depending on the cycle. 
If it dips buy more, if not don't. If the market tanks completely (-40%), just buy the position that held strong before & was not such a bargain.
If we are talking mining stocks then i would look at the big dividend mines that produce Silver, gold, copper and other key metals, like platinum & nickel. 

I think a creative rennasance is on our doorstep with a huge jump up in general intelligence & creativity.
Elon musk types will be normal in 200 years time, but thats very subjective.
I am astounded at my own cognitive upgrades personally as Im a lot more intelligent though self study, but maybe thats also age?

Yes there may well be a big transition out of tech and into other things that could last some time?
The 4th industrial revolution with ai, EV's space, robotics & other stuff seems imminent though.
A lot of new sectors rot come & things that have not been invented yet (Human hardware upgrade tech  ). 

At the moment that has to be tangibles and thats all I am considering and have considered from day one. 
If I can touch and feel it and its deemed as a physical and useful asset then thats all good for me.
Silver is no1 on my list, then copper and gold. 

 

Edited January 23, 2021 by Stacktastic

[Roy]

I've been offered 3 jobs this year in Africa in the oil industry, specifically exploration.

The first is 3 months in Namibia, followed by Botswana and Zambia.

It's not for me but there is still a lot of interest and companies are willing to invest in oil and gas extraction.

[Stacktastic]

Did anyone trade GameStop or AMC yesterday?? Mental performance. 

I was going to buy £100 on open but the general market drop affected my choices as I had open positions for day trading.
I  got a little late as i am trying to day but im up about 30%. 

It went up over 300% and crashed a lot of trading platforms. 
I just received this so am unsure if its a good thing or not?? 

Tight stop has been placed, I shall be watching premarket sales.

I also got in on Nokia & Genius brands and have 30% on both. 
There is definitely a way to find these penny stocks and get in at the bottom & pull out after the first spike. 
I have made some mental trades on a few and would've x4 - 5 money on average!! 

My IBM share is up 3% LOL. I think this will do well over the next week or so, but I only have 1 share at £85. 

Looks like 212 got screwed yesterday as the server was shut down. 
I bet a lot of people lost money and are pressing charges!!! 
Im up 30% so Im happy. Only put in £100 though as Im learning. 

There is a lot of talk about the fact that the markets are unstable
& this and GameStop could actually take it all down! 

People cant add to the position on 212 & I read that as not being able to add to it but I may be wrong?
but proper investors can. Im just wondering if people will take profits or it will go up and up?? Or both??
Im leaving it as I dont want to stop low as I will loose money, I will try and add to it if it crashes hard. 

As I only have £100 I am half considering taking off my stop loss and letting it do what ever. 

I have a feeling the drop we saw yesterday is the start of a larger one, possibly a collapse. 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Stacktastic

[goluckystayhappy]

I am liking Petrofac at the moment and have built a decent position. One of the most shorted UK stocks at the moment and a bit of a battle going on between shorts/longs. The shares do look grossly undervalued even with the SFO investigation lurking in the background. One to watch as they are also effectively an oil producer given their PSC contracts. They also recently signed a big contract that has not been RNS'd yet.

 

[JunkBond]

4 hours ago, Stacktastic said:

Did anyone trade GameStop

Yes.

HOLD!!!

I bought half a share. 😂

[Stacktastic]

23 minutes ago, JunkBond said:

Yes.

HOLD!!!

I bought half a share. 😂

They all crashed and burnt apart from SPCE.
AMC was -50% the last time I looked. Nokia dies a death. 
I still have Invivo & T2 bio systems, but will sell them I think. 
Gonna hold onto Genius brands though & average down. 

Everyone is working on the silver market now. Fine buy me.  
I have 12k mining shares that in the green now. 

The crime seem to taken control of the situation, probbaly dumped a load of paper onto the Market, but I feel it might bounce back again. 
Removed £600 from Pan American though, incase it goes back to the bottom again tomorrow.

Edited January 28, 2021 by Stacktastic

[goluckystayhappy]

A gold miner that may be worth a look at some point, LSE:ALTN. There is a big seller dumping stock so when they have nearly finished a good buying op may exist. Big spread through.

[Stacktastic]

5 minutes ago, goluckystayhappy said:

A gold miner that may be worth a look at some point, LSE:ALTN. There is a big seller dumping stock so when they have nearly finished a good buying op may exist. Big spread through.

Post this on this thread assuming you are not already on it.
 

 
 

[Stacktastic]

Check out new concept energy 300% also today. this is a mental time for the markets. 

[Kman]

Surprised no talk of BP Q4, I must admit they totally skipped my mind to check

BP eked out a modest profit, but it was just a fraction of typical pre-pandemic levels. Cash flow, which failed to cover dividends and capital expenditure despite deep cuts to both, raised more fundamental questions about the company’s ability to sustain investor returns. Shares fell as much as 4.5%.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-02/bp-earnings-fall-short-with-pandemic-hurting-fuel-sales-margins

Anyone else looked into it more deeply?