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My first trade - Shell / BP


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3 hours ago, Kman said:

Surprised no talk of BP Q4, I must admit they totally skipped my mind to check

BP eked out a modest profit, but it was just a fraction of typical pre-pandemic levels. Cash flow, which failed to cover dividends and capital expenditure despite deep cuts to both, raised more fundamental questions about the company’s ability to sustain investor returns. Shares fell as much as 4.5%.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-02/bp-earnings-fall-short-with-pandemic-hurting-fuel-sales-margins

Anyone else looked into it more deeply?

I had a look, they lost money achieving roughly same average price per barrel as previous quarter. That means at current oil price they are now making money (this quarter). The most important thing for me is that the have reduced debt - this is a good sign. Second to that is talk of starting share buy backs within the year, this is also good news but I would like to top up this year before the price moves up ideally. 

My only concern with BP is the management, they are going big on the green, which is where the losses are. I did read the other day though that they had defended their Russian projects, those are where the money is. If they sell their stake in Russia I will dump BP and move into another company that isn't going to destroy itself. So far so good though. 

Dividend maintained, can't ask for more given the yield. Happy to hold and see what management decides to do this year. 

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They have also recently cut their exploration team from 700 to 100 people. That is interesting, either they expect to be able to buy up assets on the cheap (no need to develop their own), or another sign they are going woke. Either way for now, it signals less capex and thus more investor returns in the near future. Longer term, uncertain. 

I really hope they are not going woke. Another article I read called "Why I sold BP" cited the reasons for doing so as a UK white paper to eliminate natural gas from the power and domestic grid by 2025.... :lol::lol: Some people live in a different reality to the rest of us I guess, namely those in government. No hot showers for anyone, no central heating by 2025. No diesel/petrol cars by 2030 was the other reason for selling BP, again I laughed. It ain't happening, but as long as people THINK it is, then no one will notice the bargains in oil for as long as possible. 

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Although I think the oil price will continue to recover, I am reluctant to buy big oil like BP and Shell because I think it is only a matter of time before the environmental lobby try to sue them for damaging the environment. I am on the lookout for undervalued juniors that may go under the radar. Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) looks good value, but is probably too big. Reconnaissance Energy Africa (RECO.V) is a good size but it may be a little expensive given that it has had a strong run already in the last three months. Any other ideas?

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Interesting perspective, it is true that big oil is an easy target given the environment (politically I mean). But in our legal system, if its not a specific event I don't see how 'damage to the environment' can be laid on the producers, who's fault is the damage to the environment, the guy producing it or the guy burning it in his car. Deep water horizon has cost BP tens of billions already, but it was specific to them. Shell's problems in Nigeria are specific to spills. If the green lobby are serious though the way they would do it is political lobbying for charges or taxes of some kind, Biden has already done some damage to the market with his no fracking, but this is ironically good for oil producers who now have reduced capital expenditure, and bad for everyone else who will be paying the resulting high prices in a few years. 

On juniors I have no recommendations, I am going to look at what the funds are doing and research from their picks first.

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9 hours ago, Bumble said:

Reconnaissance Energy Africa (RECO.V)

👍

Technically, alcohol is a solution..

'It [socialism] poses a growing threat, however unintentional, to the freedom of this country, for there is no freedom where the State totally controls the economy. Personal freedom and economic freedom are indivisible. You can’t have one without the other. You can’t lose one without losing the other.'

"There is no such thing as public money, there is only taxpayers' money"

Let not England forget her precedence of teaching nations how to live.

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I think the environmentalists will go after big oil the same way that everyone went after big tobacco in the 90s. They were cash rich and an easy target, and there were 'smoking gun' internal reports indicating that the companies knew that smoking caused cancer and they suppressed the evidence and continued advertising. There are some similar features with oil. An internal report from within Exxon shows that they started building offshore rigs to a greater height because they predicted a rise in sea level caused by CO2 emissions. Every state and city that is on the coast might try to claim that oil companies should be liable for the cost of their sea defences. Obviously it would be hard to prove how much is down to oil and how much is coal or deforestation, and how much is caused by China/Russia/India or whatever, but the general mood of the public is that big oil has made a lot of money from selling oil, while climate change has resulted in an externality that has forced the public to pick up the cost. I think we can expect more carbon taxes as well, but I predict lawsuits will be a feature of the landscape.

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4 hours ago, Bumble said:

I think the environmentalists will go after big oil the same way that everyone went after big tobacco in the 90s. They were cash rich and an easy target, and there were 'smoking gun' internal reports indicating that the companies knew that smoking caused cancer and they suppressed the evidence and continued advertising. There are some similar features with oil. An internal report from within Exxon shows that they started building offshore rigs to a greater height because they predicted a rise in sea level caused by CO2 emissions. Every state and city that is on the coast might try to claim that oil companies should be liable for the cost of their sea defences. Obviously it would be hard to prove how much is down to oil and how much is coal or deforestation, and how much is caused by China/Russia/India or whatever, but the general mood of the public is that big oil has made a lot of money from selling oil, while climate change has resulted in an externality that has forced the public to pick up the cost. I think we can expect more carbon taxes as well, but I predict lawsuits will be a feature of the landscape.

Yes I expect the exact same thing with the oil majors as with tobacco in the 90's. Some people did extremely well out of tobacco because free cashflow meant investor returns sky rocketed via buy backs and dividends. No need for capital expenditure you see, because no new competition were coming into the sector, so it all went to investors. This will repeat in oil over this decade, oil is just as addictive as tobacco to the economy, combine that with decreasing supply, plus inflation, should be a good few years.   

Tobacco was just as hated then as oil is now in my view. Contrarian investing at its finest. 

Edited by KDave
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15 minutes ago, KDave said:

Yes I expect the exact same thing with the oil majors as with tobacco in the 90's. Some people did extremely well out of tobacco because free cashflow meant investor returns sky rocketed via buy backs and dividends. No need for capital expenditure you see, because no new competition were coming into the sector, so it all went to investors. This will repeat in oil over this decade, oil is just as addictive as tobacco to the economy, combine that with decreasing supply, plus inflation, should be a good few years.   

Good to hear I love oil, great asset. For now anyway. 

I would love it to be -$35 a barrel again, but that wont happen. Happy with $10. 
If the SM tanks later this year I will take a decent position in WTI assuming that goes with it. 

I would say 20%. Really annoyed I did not get in on the game stop stuff now - or shorted the silver market (I tried but failed). 
but Im learning day trading now. I have made a few nice wins and some colossal losses, this is hard work, especially today -£100. ;)
I have learnt to wait and see what the market & stock trends are doing first, all looked fine and dandy and then ......

I bought invivo pharmaceuticals at the top (what a plonker) its been at -20% but seems like its doing OK in a bad day (10%). I have seen that ONE share was about $18k!! some time back, so Im happy holding that as I have 100 shares. I did the same with Ginus brands but its only £85, happy to average down. Its a good company anyway. Penny stock. Rule of the week. Get in on the low, or average down & Focus on mid size companies & cut your losses at a decent resistance!!!! 😛
 
Im studying hard next week - i know I can be good at this. 

Just waiting for Cameco to be on sale now, but I want to make some cash first. 
I would happily drop 30% into that for the medium to long term. 

 

Edited by Stacktastic
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6 minutes ago, Stacktastic said:

Good to hear I love oil, great asset. For now anyway. 

I would love it to be -$35 a barrel again, but that wont happen. Happy with $10. 
If the SM tanks later this year I will take a decent position in WTI assuming that goes with it. 
I would say 20%. Really annoyed I did not get in on the game stop stuff now, but Im learning day trading now. 
I have made a few nice wins and some colossal losses, this is hard work, especially today -£100. ;)
I have learnt to wait and see what the market & stock trends are doing first, all looked fine and dandy and then ......

Just waiting for Cameco to be on sale now, but I want to make some cash first. 
I would happily drop 30% into that for the medium to long term. 

 

$10 a barrel? Don't think we will see that again for a long time. We are on the road to $70 this year in my view, with all the ups and downs along the way. 

I admire your energy, good luck with the trading. I missed out on Cameco, its still on the list, as are a couple of other companies in coal, steel, copper, etc. I am hoping for the big crash for another opportunity at commodities, but from what starting point? It might be that the lows are long gone and not coming back, especially if inflation hits first before any correction. I hope David Hunter is right on his macro and we see 80% off the market this year :D

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1 hour ago, KDave said:

$10 a barrel? Don't think we will see that again for a long time. 

I admire your energy, good luck with the trading.

 we see 80% off the market this year :D

Yes precisely. Too many very rich people have interests in oil. 

thanks - Im an idiot, but I see it as paying for an eduction.
I will know it in and out soon with enough effort. 
My wife and kids are so fed up. 

I seriously think thats on the cards, thats why day trading suits me, nothing long term. Gonna wait for decent days only now. get my lists together and wait for an hour or two as I am loosing more than im winning. ;) Its nice as I can see how the markets work now and shy its up so much. Give the population free money and tada. The institutional people & clever investors take it. When OR IF  the free money stops thats when it will suffer. Relying on mining stocks for an apparent super cycle is great, but after earning £500 in 10 mins on decent uptrends I can see that some serious money can be earnt on a monthly basis. It will take work a to off work and experience, but its no difference to any job, trade or hobby/skill. :)

Id the bottom falls out the markets. Not sure I will be too keen to invest unless it starts going back up. 
Probably stick to tangibles mainly, especially gold, silver oil, blue chip, 10%+ dividend and emerging markets. :)

Edited by Stacktastic
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4 hours ago, Stacktastic said:

 Im learning day trading now.

how are you going about it? times frames? identifying entries etc

What are you trading? equities, commodities, currencies or all? 

I wouldn't be against doing a detailed post with everything I've learned so far

Personally I've found trying to trade takes up a lot of time, is more stressful and not as profitable as just investing  (I've probably been lucky with the investing though)

 

 

Help thread for members new to silver/gold stacking/collecting

The Money Printing Myth the Fed can't and don't money print - Deflation ahead, not inflation 

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You guys are braver than me doing day trading. 

 

Whilst I certainly understand the markets and the methods, and doing the research would be a piece of cake for me, it's the timing, I wouldn't have the patience for. I'd always be wondering did I buy too late or sell to early. 

It's why I've decided on a buy and hold strategy, which is doing ok for me so far. The only twist in this strategy is if any stock doubles, I sell half, reinvest the money elsewhere and let the balance ride. 

Currently on an equivalent of 32% APR, for ETFs and 42% APR on individual stocks. Beginners luck? Who knows, but it's been an enjoyable learning curve to date. 

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After selling it by mistake in the autumn - I'm back in boys.
outside of a crash I Cant see it going much lower than this & the dividend is worth it for a longer time hold. 

Going back to where I started.
I have cashed out of a lot of stocks now (mostly at a profit)  and am looking at a longer term strategy. 

I shall share my plan with your guys and see what you think?? :)

bp.png

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1 hour ago, Stacktastic said:

After selling it by mistake in the autumn - I'm back in boys.
outside of a crash I Cant see it going much lower than this & the dividend is worth it for a longer time hold. 

Going back to where I started.
I have cashed out of a lot of stocks now (mostly at a profit)  and am looking at a longer term strategy. 

I shall share my plan with your guys and see what you think?? :)

bp.png

Not a bad price at all if holding for a few years, reinvest the dividends and compound, sell at £8 a share in a few years time. ;)

Just keep a good eye on the woke CEO and let me know if he starts selling any of the company silver, the highest risk with BP at the moment is not the oil price its the management. 

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1 hour ago, KDave said:

Not a bad price at all if holding for a few years, reinvest the dividends and compound, sell at £8 a share in a few years time. ;)

Just keep a good eye on the woke CEO and let me know if he starts selling any of the company silver, the highest risk with BP at the moment is not the oil price its the management. 


Yeah the US market are buying it up or the oil p[rice is going up - I have already earnt £21 LOL. 

The Invivo stock i was stuck with at -16% last week has woken up too, so I will be selling that later today. 
Must have had good news or something? Been looking at longer term stuff as you know. 

I will p.message you back btw. when I have posted all this silver to pay for my BP bill. ;) 
Seems I sold it in between a bit of a price slump, but happy with the profits.
Pan Am & even comstock has shot up - so I will be offloading comstock this week as it should perform. 
With the exception of Solgold at -32%! (election today in Equador) & Alba  it would be nice to take some profits & start fresh. 

Its a good day in the markets. I guess it might have something to do with stimulus bills??? 

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BP ripping up today.

Mr Looney must be pleased. Guess its just the oil price increase? 
I removed half my investment this morning to distribute into GSK, but still made a bit of a profit. 

This is good to see. Might turn out the oil majors become the tops stocks in renewables in 10 years? 
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-majors-driving-wind-energy-180000510.html?.tsrc=rss 

BP.png

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1 hour ago, Stacktastic said:

BP ripping up today.

Mr Looney must be pleased. Guess its just the oil price increase? 
I removed half my investment this morning to distribute into GSK, but still made a bit of a profit. 

This is good to see. Might turn out the oil majors become the tops stocks in renewables in 10 years? 
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-majors-driving-wind-energy-180000510.html?.tsrc=rss 

BP.png

Yep you will see oil easily hitting 100$ a barrel this year. The commodities super cycle is here now. I own 6000 shares in BP

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1 hour ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Yep you will see oil easily hitting 100$ a barrel this year. The commodities super cycle is here now. I own 6000 shares in BP

Nice.
I am sure I saw somehting about Opec keeping the price down artificially? 
Think i would be tempted to sell my shares in BP if it hits an upper limit. ;)

Wish I had kept my shares in WTI, Shell and BP now, but Im 3k in profit over all now. 
Not bad for my first year in trading, considering I have Parkinson's when I go anywhere near the sale button. 

I will buy Shell and Total as the first thing if the market collapses.
A lot of green energy stocks and EV stocks will be panic sold more I tihnk? Tesla for example. 

I need to spend a day looking at how hard different stocks were hit.
Amazon & Google would be lovely at bargain prices. ;)

Edited by Stacktastic
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@Stacktasticall commodities you want to be in oil lithium uranium tin gold silver platinum copper.

Even look at wheat and timber especially in the us market.

This cycle spells everything of inflation which the fed can't control buy and hold. If you sell anything that's pegged against a commodity prices then your mad.

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42 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

@Stacktasticall commodities you want to be in oil lithium uranium tin gold silver platinum copper.

Even look at wheat and timber especially in the us market.

This cycle spells everything of inflation which the fed can't control buy and hold. If you sell anything that's pegged against a commodity prices then your mad.

Starting to see that. 

I just need Cameco now. Assuming Solgold get thier act together. ;)
Wondering if the USA will lockdown again now?? That will be good for OIL. 

Its not sexy but commodities that run on a price (ie silver) make predicting the purchase and sale an easy thing. 
During the silver squeeze I was scalping First majestic based on the 2-3 second dealay on the live price.
If I could go back I would sit there all day and put down £2k on each run. Could have made a lot of money.  ;) 
I still have a lot of time left, so wont miss a trick before too long. 

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2 hours ago, HerefordBullyun said:

 copper.

Is this guy on drugs? If I end up like him i would want to walk the plank or be Keal Hauled - proper nob. 
Excuse me - was a 'how dare you interrupt me" statement. ;)

i bet his on that boat as his wife kicked him out, I feel sorry for Michael as he is a rude person to interview.  ;)
His face says it all in the preview. He looks pissed off. Im buying a 5kg copper bar anyway. Nice door stop. 
They were £85 last year and not have doubled. Shame its not platinum but hey ho. 
 

 

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2 minutes ago, Stacktastic said:

Is this guy on drugs? If I end up like him i would want to walk the plank or be Keal Hauled. 
i bet his on that boat as his wife kicked him out, I feel sorry for Michael as he is a rude person to interview.  ;)
 

 

Timber has doubled in price can't see any reason why copper won't if not more. I haven't watched the video but. As I've stated before commodities are an absolute no brainer

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6 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Timber has doubled in price can't see any reason why copper won't if not more. I haven't watched the video but. As I've stated before commodities are an absolute no brainer

Copper could be the next Palladium? Or silver would be a good target LOL.  I have not been in the game to know so its very subjective. But spending money on a 5kg bar could work out over 30 years. I also have Anglo Gold, Sol Gold & I also bought into Greatland on the low, despite me saying I would not. Sol has it in the ground, it might take 3-4 years but from what I have read it should be a tier 1 grade deposit. If it goes to zero, hey thats the risk. Thats for another thread though.

Edited by Stacktastic
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4 minutes ago, Stacktastic said:

Copper could be the next Palladium? Or silver would be a good target LOL.  I have not been in the game to know so its very subjective. But spending money on a 5kg bar could work out over 30 years. I also have Anglo Gold, Sol Gold & I also bought into Greatland on the low, despite me saying I would not. Thats for another thread though. Sol has it in the ground, it might take 3-4 years but from what I have read it should be a tier 1 grade deposit. If it goes to zero, hey thats the risk. 

It's just one thing. Patience. Simple. Buy a stock commit to a price that you buy and sell. I hardly sell a stock at a loss if you do  you are doing it wrong.  2/3rds of my portfolio is down ATM will I sell yet no chance!

Edited by HerefordBullyun
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8 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

It's just one thing. Patience. Simple. Buy a stock commit to a price that you buy and sell. I hardly sell a stock at a loss if you do  you are doing it wrong.  2/3rds of my portfolio is down ATM will I sell yet no chance!

Yeah learning that, although 90% of mine is in the green now, but I have missed opportunities to hold and sell for more. 
Its Alba & Sol that are the only lossers. 14% and 30%. Different strategy now mind you. :(

Edited by Stacktastic
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