The case for silver against gold

[HerefordBullyun]

So comparably I am a silver bug. There are lots of arguments with gold which is fair enough I'm for which I am not doubting. I know the standard answer because of the gold is historically   pegged by  a system against fiat but when the end game comes  to the common man I think whom is too busy on looking to their newest survival and the 1st option, but many of the common men are already enslaved in debt.  Espically those whom think its a quick buck. I see it and you can in the World debt clock and that my friends is incomprehensible, and it's a long term game.and an end one which again to me is the case for silver.

Gold isn't eaten by industry but silver is, So eventually which is the rarer and so is gold a false pretence?  Yes I'm fully aware of the paper game but you can't do it all the time which also is pegged against fiat b.s which we know eventually fails.

Yes I know silver is cheaper comparably but if you really stack, that the truth in is an end game situation. Another argument is  if you know by youve learnt and it's not a shoe shine boy answer,  that  is not arrogant speak btw both goes the case for silver and gold. I believe silver is and by far the most under valued of precious metals.

This is not topic to diss the goldbugz but I actually think the case is stronger than ever and please put me in box my box to say otherwise. But I will finish with this.

JP Morgan has the most silver holdings, and it's physical,  they may hold it for a short term but the in end game whose stronger? Whose got it? Banks don't play short games (unless it's paper markets and its to thier benefit ) when they already know the end game!

 Either my conclusion  is there's a lie about physical  gold holdings which it's already proven, Comex, the back up is what? yes! you have guessed its silver! People underestimate underdogs. They shouldn't, and for me silver has a massive potential. 

I hope this gives you stackers, collectors and dealers whom I respect, food for thought... Ive learnt a bit on here. Not the brightest star in the world but not mad Jack Hackett from Father Ted neither. Interested to hear your opinions.  Japan is at an end game situation and now in the cycles of hyperinflation where a central bank has no levers, one day we'll be big in Japan or should I say as expensive.

[MancunianStacker]

I have a bit of both. 👍🏻 Not a gold snob for sure

[HerefordBullyun]

5 hours ago, MancunianStacker said:

I have a bit of both. 👍🏻 Not a gold snob for sure

I'm envious I'm missed the gold boat as I say it's not cognitive bias. I wish I had gold. But for me was silver to buy 1st, gold to me is a luxury.

[GrahamDiamond]

I need to Purchase a Silver Turtle,  Grumpy Dave will not be pleased Coinsters.

[HerefordBullyun]

3 hours ago, GrahamDiamond said:

I need to Purchase a Silver Turtle,  Grumpy Dave will not be pleased Coinsters.

Could be worse I married a turtle! Go platinum also @GrahamDiamond. GD can have fellow brothers from both spheres.

[HillWalkerDundee]

Most "common men" (a new term is needed please) don't give a monkey's about gold or silver. When you are "enslaved by debt" you are more interested in keeping your job to make sure that roof stays over your head, that there is food on the table and coal in the fire. For many people, inflation is no bad thing as it generally reduces the debt and gives some elbow room (what is good for the Government is good for Joe Public). I have yet to meet anyone out there in the real world who thinks that the economic world we know is coming to an end. Yes, that gives us an advantage but most people think that fiat is a rubbish car.

[KDave]

I don't know what will happen any better than the rest. These are just my thoughts. 

They are both just metals. Pieces of metal that have some material use. The majority of people in life don't use gold for its material properties, they hoard it, they covet it, they wear it, but the majority do use silver, as you say its used in production and thrown away. Yet even small quantities of gold are coveted. Why is that? When you can see it, you realise just how big of a difference there is between the two metals. It has nothing to do with the material aspects. Its all about the ideas attached to them. 

Personally, I have more silver than gold at the moment, and I dislike silver quite a bit. It is not money like gold, recent history has taught me that it does not hold its value over time, it fails to beat inflation, it tarnishes, its grey. If I want a grey metal, I prefer Aluminium it looks better . However I think silver will be the best performing asset of the decade, but it will take years to play out.

People buying silver now after its up plus 80% in 3 months, thinking its going to moon shot this year are getting way ahead of themselves. Robinhood investors buying SLV for quick gains would be better off saving their stimulus checks for when furlough becomes redundancy, mortgage holidays become foreclosure and credit card freezes become bankruptcy. Silver will hit triple digits, but it won't be this year, it won't be next year or the year after that. There is a lot to happen before the reflation and flight to real assets. Wait for the pullback, then buy some more and expect multi-year consolidation before the next run up. All imo. 

[vand]

The main argument is simply that silver is a much smaller and tighter market. It will take only a tiny amount of "big money" deciding that they want a piece of the action to have a big impact on the demand/supply balance with corresponding price volatility.

[ChrisF]

1 hour ago, KDave said:

I don't know what will happen any better than the rest. These are just my thoughts. 

They are both just metals. Pieces of metal that have some material use. The majority of people in life don't use gold for its material properties, they hoard it, they covet it, they wear it, but the majority do use silver, as you say its used in production and thrown away. Yet even small quantities of gold are coveted. Why is that? When you can see it, you realise just how big of a difference there is between the two metals. It has nothing to do with the material aspects. Its all about the ideas attached to them. 

Personally, I have more silver than gold at the moment, and I dislike silver quite a bit. It is not money like gold, recent history has taught me that it does not hold its value over time, it fails to beat inflation, it tarnishes, its grey. If I want a grey metal, I prefer Aluminium it looks better . However I think silver will be the best performing asset of the decade, but it will take years to play out.

People buying silver now after its up plus 80% in 3 months, thinking its going to moon shot this year are getting way ahead of themselves. Robinhood investors buying SLV for quick gains would be better off saving their stimulus checks for when furlough becomes redundancy, mortgage holidays become foreclosure and credit card freezes become bankruptcy. Silver will hit triple digits, but it won't be this year, it won't be next year or the year after that. There is a lot to happen before the reflation and flight to real assets. Wait for the pullback, then buy some more and expect multi-year consolidation before the next run up. All imo. 

Yup, i was watching a financial youtube channel and the guy was saying people using gold as a hedge and getting a raw deal.  If you look at how inflation tracks against gold you will see gold is always lagging and in some cases it just plane sucks.  Yes there are times when it will rally as will silver but its not reliable.  So, if gold sucks, silver is dog c*@p.  I have both but I'm putting the majority of my cash i global stocks and shares ETF's.  If you keep the majority of your cash in gold and silver you are one mad mofo.  Just my thoughts and I'm sure there are a lot of sensible people who don't do this but if you do....  urgh. 

[HillWalkerDundee]

A simple way of looking at it is that GBP, USD, and AUD will all devalue year, after year, after year, there is nothing anyone can do about that. Polo mints and PMs on the other hand hold their value better. So buy gold / silver and it doesn't devalue in the same way. Currency on the other hand will always devalue. 

[HerefordBullyun]

13 hours ago, KDave said:

 

Personally, I have more silver than gold at the moment, and I dislike silver quite a bit. It is not money like gold, recent history has taught me that it does not hold its value over time, it fails to beat inflation, it tarnishes, its grey. 

Ok  your first line why? 

Your second line I think you will find historically it was money to the common man.

Also when you come end game silver is going to be the better metal. Please bear in mind what I posted. End game, gold will be potentially confiscated it happened before in the USA.....

So is it second fiddle?

[HerefordBullyun]

6 hours ago, HillWalkerDundee said:

Most "common men" (a new term is needed please) don't give a monkey's about gold or silver. When you are "enslaved by debt" you are more interested in keeping your job to make sure that roof stays over your head, that there is food on the table and coal in the fire. For many people, inflation is no bad thing as it generally reduces the debt and gives some elbow room (what is good for the Government is good for Joe Public). I have yet to meet anyone out there in the real world who thinks that the economic world we know is coming to an end. Yes, that gives us an advantage but most people think that fiat is a rubbish car.

Ok so are you pro gold over silver? I am just stating my case for silver. It's underestimated and undervalued. 

[HerefordBullyun]

5 hours ago, vand said:

The main argument is simply that silver is a much smaller and tighter market. It will take only a tiny amount of "big money" deciding that they want a piece of the action to have a big impact on the demand/supply balance with corresponding price volatility.

Isn't that a further strength arguement for silver? If the market is smaller and the proverbial hits the fan, it's the greatest thing that can happen....

[sixgun]

In earlier times i have argued in favour of silver - that longer term it would be the better investment. i have pretty much always argued that but at times it often fell on deaf ears.
There were those like HawkHybrid would claim i was wrong and that i should be saving in gold. There were those who had bought silver at the highs of the previous bull run and were nursing losses they were perhaps doubtful they would ever recoup. There were those who had got fed up with pumpers and false dawns, they became disillusioned. For newcomers i would usually recommend buying some sovereigns - low premiums, easy to sell and less likely to create disillusion for the beginner.

i listened to these members but ignored them. i stacked and stacked and stacked. i acquired a sizable stash. 
Silver prices have gone up a fair way from earlier this year and have further to go - silver will still make more profits than gold. The issue in the past and still to a degree is silver is bulky. It is more troublesome to store and move. Very large amounts of value can be stored in a shoe box with gold but not so with silver.

Another big downside of silver is milk spot and tarnishing - especially milk spot. If you have bought expensive proof silver and then discover it has milk spot it is upsetting. There is much loss of value. i remember i was gutted when i discovered about half of two tubes of Somali Elephants i got from Silver-to-Go had gone manky on me.

The other downside are the premiums. i expect these premiums to fall as the price of silver rises. If you were patient and canny you could pick up silver at nearer spot but rarely is it possible to pick up a great deal at or near spot. We would hear stories of members who had paid a high premium and could not get it back, found themselves in a tight spot, have to sell and ended up selling at a loss. 

These are all significant downsides - the upside is silver will appreciate more than gold and being cheaper you can still buy more coins for your fiat. If you view this as a long term game i would still say collect silver. More recently i have bought bars, vintage rounds and older coins rather than tubes of shiny new stuff. i hate to discover milk spot on coins so i avoid the risk.

[Roy]

1 hour ago, sixgun said:

There were those who had got fed up with pumpers and false dawns, they became disillusioned. 

The issue in the past and still to a degree is silver is bulky. It is more troublesome to store and move. Very large amounts of value can be stored in a shoe box with gold but not so with silver. 

Another big downside of silver is milk spot and tarnishing - especially milk spot. 

Premiums. (and VAT)

All the above are true! 

I have to hand it to you @sixgun, you have probably been the most consistent silver supporter on the forum!

I suspect your silver holding is impressive and I hope you are handsomely rewarded for your patience.

(Will you be converting it to gold?)

😃

 

 

[RacerCool]

12 hours ago, KDave said:

Personally, I have more silver than gold at the moment, and I dislike silver quite a bit. It is not money like gold, recent history has taught me that it does not hold its value over time, it fails to beat inflation, it tarnishes, its grey. If I want a grey metal, I prefer Aluminium it looks better . However I think silver will be the best performing asset of the decade, but it will take years to play out.

Wash this man's mouth with colloidal silver!1!! *picks up pitchfork*

[HillWalkerDundee]

Hi Hereford,

I am pro silver. Both gold and silver have its plus points and it does depend on your outlook on the world. I am not a prepper and fiat will not be allowed to fail. Apart from a store of wealth which should hold its value better than fiat, silver is a thing of beauty and of use e.g. A silver tea set (I have not had a cuppa from a gold one). If I am going to hold wealth in this form I want it to look good though. Gold people will say gold does look good too, I just don't see it as much. I wish I was a gold lover, I could sling a quote back at you "Mislike me not for my complexion,The shadowed livery of the burnished sun."

[KDave]

7 hours ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Ok  your first line why? 

Your second line I think you will find historically it was money to the common man.

Also when you come end game silver is going to be the better metal. Please bear in mind what I posted. End game, gold will be potentially confiscated it happened before in the USA.....

So is it is second fiddle.

I have more silver than gold, because I think it will out perform over the decade because of its industrial and speculative properties, I am confident after the recent run up.

As for the history of silver being money, it was used as circulating coinage for use by the common man; I would argue it was currency first, and like today as many confuse currency as money, the same has happened with silver. "A dollar was made of silver" is not an argument that silver was money, its an argument that silver was currency. The fact the currency was strong in goods does not mean silver was strong in goods, it means gold was strong in goods. Gold was the monetary standard. In a gold standard, silver is a derivative of gold, it reflects the performance of gold, that doesn't mean silver was gold (money), just as copper coins were not money in Victorian times, they were currency. Copper is not gold. Silver is not gold. Today silver still isn't money and is no longer a currency. It is not circulated and it is not used to store wealth because it doesn't work as well as other assets. Barrels of oil are a better form of money than silver if you look at relative values over time in terms of preserving purchasing power. Oil is second only to gold in this role which should tell you a lot about money and what it represents.

I remember a presentation on this subject, demonstrating the modern values of the metals, gold and silver in modernity, the figures were as follows;

After the last 47 years gold can purchase 21% more oil (0.4% per year appreciation), 424% more consumer goods as measured by CPI (3.6% per year appreciation), 498% more raw materials as measured by PPI (3.9% per year appreciation) 704% more general commodities as measured by CCI (4.5% per year appreciation)

After 47 years silver can purchase 69% less oil (2.5% per year depreciation), 33% more consumer goods as measured by CPI (0.6% per year appreciation), 52% more raw materials as measured by PPI (0.9% appreciation) 104% more general commodities as measured by CCI (1.5% per year appreciation).

Is silver money? No. Has it ever been money? No. Will more people buy it for speculation over the next 10 years, likely based on narratives that it is money, yes I am counting on it. Will silver see increasing demand for its industrial properties over the next 10 years, yes I am counting on it. 

I hope that makes sense. 

[HillWalkerDundee]

It does show that both metals hold their own against fiat. If you were paying a 50 year mortgage with gold or silver then it would still be hurting. With fiat you would be paying peanuts. Inflation has its plus points when it comes to debt.

[HighlandTiger]

The problem with silver is that it will only rise to prominence when the world has really turned to poo. i mean coronavirus x 100 poo or along those lines. So what will be left for you to do and buy with your silver, other than sit in your porch/garden with a smug grin on your face because you've got a spare room full of toilet paper, and a target on your door to attract the low life. Not exactly a great existence.

However Gold will rise and rise (finite supply, increasing population etc) without having to suffer a Mad Max landscape, ( just to note though, the first Mad Max film was set in 2021  ), and you can enjoy the good life with the profits you make in a normal, relatively safe and sane world.

 

Basically silver bugs keep their fingers crossed that the world economies will crash, just so they can say, "i told you so". Its like remainers hoping that Brexit is a disaster, so they can say the same. Although if I was a remainer, I think the logical thought would be, "I really hope I'm wrong about brexit, as who in their right mind would want to suffer financially, just to massage their ego. 

[KDave]

31 minutes ago, HillWalkerDundee said:

It does show that both metals hold their own against fiat. If you were paying a 50 year mortgage with gold or silver then it would still be hurting. With fiat you would be paying peanuts. Inflation has its plus points when it comes to debt.

Yes a bit off topic but fiat is very good at what it does, which is primarily facilitating exchange (currency), its not perfect. The system creates moral hazard and due to democratic rule has enabled social conditions that are severely degenerative (welfare) that will create huge problems in the long run. However its strength lies in the ability to centrally manage liquidity and keep businesses going that would in previous monetary systems have gone bust through no fault of their own. 

The current system has the best of both worlds; currency which facilitates trade better than any invention since silver coinage, and money which anyone can buy freely. If people are ever stopped from buying gold then I will be back in the end the FED camp, otherwise from what I can tell the central banks are doing their job and trying to keep the economy from imploding. They print to keep food on the table and a roof over peoples heads by ensuring they have a job after the hard times. They can increase liquidity by printing or lower interest rates, or they can tighten via interest rates, or in conjunction with government via taxation. Under a gold standard everyone would be hoarding gold now and previously profitable businesses would be going bust, unemployment would be far worse than it is, etc. I also don't see a benefit from a return to the gold standard when human nature is involved, people call the fiat system corrupt and dishonest, but seem to forget gold was confiscated and revalued several times by decree prior to the end. Human nature is the common theme.

[vand]

8 hours ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Isn't that a further strength arguement for silver? If the market is smaller and the proverbial hits the fan, it's the greatest thing that can happen....

Yep.. isn't that what you wanted? wasn't very clear from your OP.

 

[HerefordBullyun]

22 minutes ago, vand said:

Yep.. isn't that what you wanted? wasn't very clear from your OP.

 

Apologies for not being clear. I've always been c**p at written English. 

[Kman]

Since 1st July when gold/silver really started to take off

Gold currently up ~14%

Silver currently up ~55%

I don't see why that pace would change in relation to each other

I'd guess silver will at least least 3x the % return on gold from here, more likely 4x 

 

[HawkHybrid]

3 hours ago, HighlandTiger said:

The problem with silver is that it will only rise to prominence when the world has really turned to poo.

 

the problem with this idea is that in at least one extreme scenario gold performed equally

to that of silver.

https://www.thesilverforum.com/topic/36367-silver-going-to-the-moon-is-less-important-than-reentry-and-splashdown/?tab=comments#comment-416002

(gsr remained at 16, if you assume 'an extra 0' typo in the gold data)

 

silver almost only outperforms gold during the spiky bit at the end of a bull market. this

obviously causes problems of timing a sell if you are holding any large amounts of physical

silver.

 

will silver outperform gold again for a short time in the future? yes. are you positioned to be

able to capitalise on that spike? after decades of waiting there is only a small window of

opportunity for buyers of physical silver to sell into, that will justify/reward their patience.

I'd rather not have to keep watch on the silver price for decades because a sizeable portion

of profits is at stake.

 

what I hate about physical silver pumpers is that so many newer members turn up wanting

to buy silver. yet all of the major reasons they give for doing so, points to gold. how those

hypocrites have said that they are being deceived and mislead.

 

HH