Sold all my Gold

[MancunianStacker]

9 hours ago, silverin said:

Wish it would go lower so that I can buy more.  I've been waiting a while! 😂

I wish I could go back to 1970 and pick up a few oz of gold at £15 per oz. I could be waiting a little longer than Wonger though for it to go back down to that level but if it could go below $400 then anything is possible!!!

10,000% in 50 years up to £1,490 today is pretty good. This got me searching the Net...

Back in 1970, you would have needed 332oz of Gold to buy the average home at £4,975. Now you only need 166 oz of Gold to buy the average home at £248,000.

So based on that, is the gold price today 50% too high at £1,490 or are house prices 50% too low?

A 5,000% rise in house prices over 50 years isn’t bad either! Ask most today however and they feel both asset classes are in bubbles.

The problem with land is they aren’t making any more of it. That’s why flats aren’t the best idea. You want the plot! Gold is finite too, like houses, it needs mining (houses need building, taking time and effort).

Anyway, as I type, I wondered what the average salary is and how many ozs of gold people are paid today compared to 1970. Much harder to settle on figures here but I tried:

In 2020 it’s around £27-£30k per year or 18-20 ozs of gold per year. Houses costing  around 8 times the average wage. Hence the trouble FTBs have getting on the ladder.

In 1970 it was around £1,700 per year or 113 ozs of gold per year. Houses costing only 3 times the annual wage.

Looking at the above, it seems wages have just been destroyed?? Saying that most families back then only had one breadwinner.

Anyway, I’m sure I’d have been happier living in 1970!! Picture GoldMember from Austin Powers!!! 😉

[Arongoldprog]

I see were you're coming from OP, I also think we are due a great correction in the next 5-10 years on asset prices (including precious metals). I also think gold will take off in the next year of so due to panic buying and a lot of people who get in high will be stung when it returns to normal levels (like the 2011/2012 gold markets). I am seeing many many regular people who had no interest in stocks messaging me asking for advice, I've been following robinhood / freetrade etc so many new retail investors enter the already over valued stock market every month, on top of that we have mega caps dominating the S&P 500, an ETF bubble and a stock market at record highs during the worse economic depression in decades. Alarm bells do start ringing... part of me thinks it must all come crashing down but another part sees the actions taken by the big central banks and I can't help wondering, do they really have unlimited printing power to support the current trajectory? 

[KDave]

28 minutes ago, MancunianStacker said:

In 2020 it’s around £27-£30k per year or 18-20 ozs of gold per year. Houses costing  around 8 times the average wage. Hence the trouble FTBs have getting on the ladder.

In 1970 it was around £1,700 per year or 113 ozs of gold per year. Houses costing only 3 times the annual wage.

Looking at the above, it seems wages have just been destroyed?

In terms of asset (wealth) accumulation wages have been destroyed, yet from a consumer perspective things have never been better. Compare today to the 1970's and people have it easy, they do in terms of food, clothing, electronics, consumer goods. But not in housing which is the highest cost of living by far (linked to asset prices) and not in wealth accumulation by any means (pensions and savings).  

The end of cycle transfer of wealth from assets to producers will come, from what I have read elsewhere we are at the end of the cycle now, which will manifest over the course of the decade via falling asset prices and rising wages. For those with savings and assets it will be about losing the least in real terms, while nominal terms disguise the fact. 

[Martlet]

59 minutes ago, MancunianStacker said:

...Back in 1970, you would have needed 332oz of Gold to buy the average home at £4,975. Now you only need 166 oz of Gold to buy the average home at £248,000.

A modest salon car would have cost about £2000 back in 1970, so this says more about house prices than value of gold or general cost of living. 

[KDave]

1 minute ago, Witcher said:

Also not in cost of college education....  but we still have to keep in mind that these things are priced on fiat currency, which has been greatly inflated... and we have to study so many charts to try to find the true value for comparison.  Mass production of goods does help, but what if you buy organic/quality food instead of the processed junk?  Ah, then it's a different ball game.

Yes I think the ever increasing efficiency in mass production of 'consumer goods' is what has kept asset prices high while wages have been able to fall over the same period. It will start to reverse this decade, in the next couple of years the consumer will start to see an increasing cost of living (the inflation everyone is worried about) to the point that by the end of the decade the mass of people spending will no longer drive the economy. Government spending will be the key to kick starting reform of the economy, likely spending to encourage manufacturing and industry (production and export). 

[Minimalist]

28 minutes ago, KDave said:

The end of cycle transfer of wealth from assets to producers will come

I doubt this will happen in the West, in the East, but not in the West.

[KDave]

2 minutes ago, Minimalist said:

I doubt this will happen in the West, in the East, but not in the West.

It won't happen on its own, it will require government to lead it. Remember, real terms not nominal terms. Its the only way.

[Minimalist]

Just now, KDave said:

It won't happen on its own, it will require government to lead it. Remember, real terms not nominal terms. Its the only way.

Cant see it happening. The laws support LBOs, financial assets and massive transnationals with the facilitation of tax avoidance jurisdictions. 

[KDave]

Consider that law surrounding assets are as temporal as anything else in politics. Expect various wealth taxes before long, that will be a good indication its happening. 

[Minimalist]

20 minutes ago, KDave said:

Consider that law surrounding assets are as temporal as anything else in politics. Expect various wealth taxes before long, that will be a good indication its happening. 

Cant see it. I think UBI will be rolled out as relief tbh. 

[silenceissilver]

13 hours ago, Witcher said:

speaking for u S of A...  no one owns "land".   We are suppose to have a government for the people by the people, but we don't.  That's been lost a long time ago. 
We are more socialistic/communistic than the government wants to admit because people, in general, are too ignorant to know.  They don't know history. They don't know economics... 
They don't know God, which is why they don't know truth.  People believe they own land, cars, themselves... nope... they own none of that.  The "State" does. 

If you are king of your own castle, would you pay any tax on the castle (house) and anything in it like horses (car)?    The answer to that should be absolutely clear. 

We don't only have fiat money but also fiat property.

[Cointreau]

I feel you've made a really bad mistake Eco. The big bull run in PM's has barely started. I would never sell right now.

Cash is trash. Dammit!

[Prophecy]

1 minute ago, Cointreau said:

I feel you've made a really bad mistake Eco. The big bull run in PM's has barely started. I would never sell right now.

Cash is trash. Dammit!

I think it's fair to lock in some 'profit' but to totally cash out doesn't fit a good risk/reward strategy.

[Cointreau]

10 minutes ago, Prophecy said:

I think it's fair to lock in some 'profit' but to totally cash out doesn't fit a good risk/reward strategy.

It was a dumb move on Eco's part. I'm gonna search out that price prediction thread. I set a bullish target for the end of year price but I was probably too conservative.

[MancunianStacker]

I’m still looking at £1,800 by New Year based on 1% gold backing of the Govt debt. I know it doesn’t work that way but that’s how I see it.

[Cointreau]

I can't find my price predictions for the year end. Was it a competition? 

[Prophecy]

2 minutes ago, Cointreau said:

I can't find my price predictions for the year end. Was it a competition? 

Year end predictions? How about a loaf of Mighty White for £9.98. how that affects gold price is anyone's guess but I have my hunches. And sandwich lunches,

 

[MancunianStacker]

3 minutes ago, Cointreau said:

I can't find my price predictions for the year end. Was it a competition? 

I think there was a prediction thread but can’t remember if I even entered it.

[Xander]

33 minutes ago, Cointreau said:

Cash is trash. Dammit!

Any chance of sending me your trash?😉

[Abyss]

23 minutes ago, Cointreau said:

Cash is trash. Dammit!

Don't get me wrong but I can see Gold doubling in price to £3,000 couple of years time but for all intents and purposes cash is not trash it is the medium of exchange willing or unwilling we have all collectively agreed to use a form of exchange for good and services. The world has tried socialism, communism and settled on capitalism. Regardless of how unfair, unjust and corrupted capitalism has become it is the only form ultimately lead to so much world we take for granted today.

Regardless whether have bundle of £50 notes or an oz of Gold the inanimate object(s) has no feeling about it past/current or future owner. It is us the present custodian of the object assigns it value and meanings and then externally project our emotions on it.

Gold/Currency/Property/Land/Stocks/Bonds all forms of holding onto future purchasing power and everything will go in cycles. The individuals learned to move between the different assets at the right time over the decades have preserved and increased their purchasing power.

[Cointreau]

I have been moving out of cash and going into PM's the last few months. More and more people will be doing the same in the near future.

I got about 10K left and I want to spend most of that.

[RacerCool]

On 23/07/2020 at 15:48, Aknot said:

The sky has been falling for one reason or another since I can remember but it always ends up being there when I look up.

 

How do you know it didn't fall and that what you're seeing is just the blue empty space behind it?  Hmm...

Concerning selling PMs for cash, I'm of the opinion that a more balanced position is best, meaning holding both plenty of cash and PMs.  

[Aknot]

1 minute ago, RacerCool said:

How do you know it didn't fall and that what you're seeing is just the blue empty space behind it?  Hmm...

Concerning selling PMs for cash, I'm of the opinion that a more balanced position is best, meaning holding both plenty of cash and PMs.  

I see it. That is all that matters. Im sure if someone looks up and sees something different it still wont effect what I see.

[dicker]

6 minutes ago, RacerCool said:

How do you know it didn't fall and that what you're seeing is just the blue empty space behind it?  Hmm...

Concerning selling PMs for cash, I'm of the opinion that a more balanced position is best, meaning holding both plenty of cash and PMs.  

Balance is always good....and re balance as circumstances change

[Xander]

22 minutes ago, Cointreau said:

I have been moving out of cash and going into PM's the last few months. More and more people will be doing the same in the near future.

I got about 10K left and I want to spend most of that.

Same here, I have been buying lots of bullion sovs, sort of waiting on any small dip then buying again, then waiting again, then it shoots up. I bought a load of sovs from the last two, of The Coin Cabinet auctions, there are loads of sovs on it tomorrow. I will follow the lots.