Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only

[apachebleu]

17 minutes ago, ZRPMs said:

You know it's been a career if your transporting that sort of thing in your prison pocket 

 Sasha grey approves this post

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

9 minutes ago, apachebleu said:

 If gold ever spikes to where I can make a good profit I'll be selling it. How many people posting diamond hand memes think not selling their bitcoin at 60 grand are happy with their choice.

 That said I doubt it ever really spikes significantly, I'm fine with gold being boring and safe, that's what it should be. Its my rainy day fund or my 'flee the country with as many soverigns as I can fit I'm my prison wallet if everything goes bad' contingency. (This is good reason not to stack silver)

What the price of gold "should" be is proportional to the performance vs inflation. Gold is undervalued, compound negative (-0.53%) real returns (vs inflation) in the last 10 years while real estate (+4.59%) and especially the S&P (+10.78%) have been on fire, best they've done in more than a century. In nominal terms gold is up from a $1049 trough around Xmas 2015 to $1866 today or roughly +78%. Every other major asset class has done better than gold with the exception of government securities in the last 10 years.

The primary characteristic of gold is to insure against inflation, fiat collapse, stock market turbulence, to hold and marginally increase in relative value. Either "this time is different" or we're in a massive everything bubble with stocks, real estate (especially commercial) and cryptos being overvalued. When it shakes out and gold performs "as it should" then gold could end up as the preferred Tier-1 asset. If you sell your gold what are you going to buy with it?

[gji25]

4 minutes ago, HonestMoneyGoldSilver said:

If you sell your gold what are you going to buy with it?

More gold of coarse

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

50 minutes ago, 9x883 said:

I wonder how low it will go🤷‍♂️

My crystal ball was made to Royal Mint QC standards but it's telling me gold can go as low as $1600. It won't though it will rally well before that, I've said $1850 so I've gotta stick with that

It's not just us eyeing up buying the dip but China and the BRICS. Physical gold already trades at a premium of $70-90 between London and Shanghai (China higher) so price dips will only increase the rate of gold transfer from west-east

[Gruff]

56 minutes ago, apachebleu said:

 I expect recovering them would be tricky part, still, easier than a silver 1kilo square gieger bar

That's  not gold!  

[Gruff]

On 27/09/2023 at 07:59, flyingveepixie said:

The future might be in fractions like 1/2 sovs and 1/10 oz little tiny rounds etc...   Brits and double sovs are already almost out of many people's reach.  Sovs are still affordable for many, but I would say only just.  I can't see me buying a generic standard sov of no special year or design at over £400 if gold spot goes up to £1800 or more. I know there's the eternal argument about protecting your wealth and how gold holds it's value and keeps up with inflation and all that, but if your fiat is being eaten away to nothing then many wont be able to shell out on gold when the moment of realisation comes, and the little light bulb of the concept of wealth protection finally switches on in their brains, it'll be too late because they wont have the fiat resources,  especially newbies who've never held pms before and don't know or understand how it all works, and I kind of worry about who would be around to buy at such a high price if I decided to sell or needed to sell at such a time.   I sold a few coins a while back and I struggled to move them, even with them being offered at almost spot which was around £1485-1490 at the time

Indeed, and the longer the inflation train carries on the more people will buy fractions. I can see 1/2oz's becoming the norm or 1/4ozs even

[apachebleu]

17 minutes ago, HonestMoneyGoldSilver said:

What the price of gold "should" be is proportional to the performance vs inflation. Gold is undervalued, compound negative (-0.53%) real returns (vs inflation) in the last 10 years while real estate (+4.59%) and especially the S&P (+10.78%) have been on fire, best they've done in more than a century. In nominal terms gold is up from a $1049 trough around Xmas 2015 to $1866 today or roughly +78%. Every other major asset class has done better than gold with the exception of government securities in the last 10 years.

The primary characteristic of gold is to insure against inflation, fiat collapse, stock market turbulence, to hold and marginally increase in relative value. Either "this time is different" or we're in a massive everything bubble with stocks, real estate (especially commercial) and cryptos being overvalued. When it shakes out and gold performs "as it should" then gold could end up as the preferred Tier-1 asset. If you sell your gold what are you going to buy with it?

 Oh I do agree we are in a weird, crazy, inflation bubble and it seems gold is not keeping up. I also agree that when these things reset, which I believe they could/will, there's a good chance gold won't fall off the cliff with them which leaves those holding gold in a good position.

 The thing is though these are cycles and if I had enough strongly priced gold and the housing market crapped itself I'd sell gold, take my profit and probably put it there where I can actually make it work for me. 

 At that stage the gold as insurance has paid out and you have to think about what will happen to your gold as the economy recovers.

 End of the day gold is lovely but there's not actually much you can do with it and when the markets/property/businesses are at their lowest they will rise again. Use your gold profits to get in at the ground floor of the next economic cycle. 

 After all if its a hedge, what else could it be a hedge against?

[apachebleu]

4 minutes ago, Gruff said:

That's  not gold!  

 Well yeah, that's why i said it was a silver bar and why I joked about prison wallets not being the preffered option for the silver stacker

Edited September 28, 2023 by apachebleu

[Gruff]

1 minute ago, apachebleu said:

 Oh I do agree we are in a weird, crazy, inflation bubble and it seems gold is not keeping up. I also agree that when these things reset, which I believe they could/will, there's a good chance gold won't fall off the cliff with them which leaves those holding gold in a good position.

 The thing is though these are cycles and if I had enough strongly priced gold and the housing market crapped itself I'd sell gold, take my profit and probably put it there where I can actually make it work for me. 

 At that stage the gold as insurance has paid out and you have to think about what will happen to your gold as the economy recovers.

 End of the day gold is lovely but there's not actually much you can do with it and when the markets/property/businesses are at their lowest they will rise again. Use your gold profits to get in at the ground floor of the next economic cycle. 

 After all if its a hedge, what else could it be a hedge against?

If gold and silver drop dramatically, you'll struggle to buy as there'll be a load of demand for it. I for one would be wanting to back the truck up to load up. Even the 20% VAT premium on silver might be attractive if the prices tank

[Sovhead]

Looks like the “establishment” are tanking prices and only recently in this thread the establishment were noted as buying big.

Are they deliberately tanking the price to buy and in the coming weeks and months sell?

Same old tricks.

[apachebleu]

1 minute ago, Gruff said:

If gold and silver drop dramatically, you'll struggle to buy as there'll be a load of demand for it. I for one would be wanting to back the truck up to load up. Even the 20% VAT premium on silver might be attractive if the prices tank

 You can, but how many crypto guys got burned that way? You can call it dollar cost averaging but you can also call it throwing good money after bad.

 I know it's impossible to time a top for a price but I'm just saying if gold did go on a run then there's no good reason not to take profit if it coincides with a depression in other asset classes that you know in the relatively short to medium term will appreciate.

 I know this is a pm forum and this might sound like heresy but it's an investment at the end of the day, obviously a cooler, more interesting one than most, but it's still monet.

 

[apachebleu]

3 minutes ago, Sovhead said:

Looks like the “establishment” are tanking prices and only recently in this thread the establishment were noted as buying big.

Are they deliberately tanking the price to buy and in the coming weeks and months sell?

Same old tricks.

 I doubt 'the establishment' are likely to tell you.

 

 This thread is quickly turning in to r/cryptocurrency or r/wallstreetbets. At first the moon talk and memes seemed ironic but I'm starting to have my doubts

[ZRPMs]

5 minutes ago, Sovhead said:

Looks like the “establishment” are tanking prices and only recently in this thread the establishment were noted as buying big.

Are they deliberately tanking the price to buy and in the coming weeks and months sell?

Same old tricks.

I think I've heard Gordon Brown a bit lately. Wasn't he the expert that did a bit of gold trading in the early 80's

[James32]

Just now, apachebleu said:

 I doubt 'the establishment' are likely to tell you.

 

 This thread is quickly turning in to r/cryptocurrency or r/wallstreetbets. At first the moon talk and memes seemed ironic but I'm starting to have my doubts

Yup, £1529 if anyone cares.

[James32]

Hello @NGMD

[NGMD]

I always look at the Royal Mint’s ‘Back in Stock’ items. 3 Graces the other day, Diamonds are Forever gold bars in the last couple of days. I wonder if they have some surplus ‘Una and the Lion’ bars coming up?

[JohnA1]

9 minutes ago, apachebleu said:

 You can, but how many crypto guys got burned that way? You can call it dollar cost averaging but you can also call it throwing good money after bad.

 

Stacking gold you're throwing good money after bad?😆

You're trading paper (debt instrument) for the only legal form of money!

[9x883]

23 minutes ago, NGMD said:

I always look at the Royal Mint’s ‘Back in Stock’ items. 3 Graces the other day, Diamonds are Forever gold bars in the last couple of days. I wonder if they have some surplus ‘Una and the Lion’ bars coming up?

People selling back to RM?

[gji25]

1 hour ago, 9x883 said:

People selling back to RM?

only the milky silver ones

Edited September 28, 2023 by gji25
info

[NGMD]

1 hour ago, 9x883 said:

People selling back to RM?

Doubt it.  Premium bars with low mintage command a little more than bulk standard bars.

[Bratnia]

On 27/09/2023 at 07:48, Bigmarc said:

How much does it cost to move it between wallets? Or would you just keep it on an exchange? 

It says on coin market cap that paxg is also on solana, maybe the cheaper option 

Sorry, I don't know. I don't hold any crypto's as of yet, still learning myself.

I suspect you could buy PAXG, during market hours, where you pay for that gold to actually be purchased (token creation fee) and added to the London vault, and then sell those PAXG tokens via the exchange, where they have a link to itBit for that on the main account dashboard. Or transfer it/whatever. I believe there's a 0.2% Ethereum fee for each transaction. If you sell directly with Paxos then you also pay a destruction fee (in effect the cost to sell some physical gold).

In other wallets/exchanges you can lend out the tokens/gold in return for interest. Two main forms as I understand it, one where you lend to others (stake) - for more interest, but more default risk, the other where you lend to the 'network', for less interest, but safer. As I recall last time I looked a month or so back the rates were around 5% and 3% respectively. Looking now at https://stakingcrypto.io/stake/PAXG/pax-gold I see still around much the same for staking, but I'd be inclined to avoid that and only go with safer 'lending'. Not in a big way, perhaps with sums saved up out of wages for a while and then when that's accumulated to enough to buy coins (Britannia/Sovereigns/whatever). Often its cheaper to by 10+ coins at a time.

[Bratnia]

On 27/09/2023 at 08:38, JohnA1 said:

Very true.

All the self-proclaimed 'experts' were predicting a rapid fall in gold prices, since it became 'demonetised'

One must have needed nerves of steel to stand their ground and refrain from selling, let alone buy more.

..although we must remember that gold ownership by the public was restricted at the time, not openly sold as it is now.

1965-1979 I believe and you were restricted to how many coins/gold you could hold. Like in America 1934-1975 however you could have held silver. 1965-1978 and a portfolio with either gold or silver performed much the same, in 1979 the one with silver pulled ahead by a significant amount, and then in 1979 the gold restriction was lifted and would have been a good time to have swapped out silver back to gold again in 1980 after the price of silver went crazy as the Hunt brothers attempted to corner the silver market.

A asset allocation of equal thirds US$ in US stock, gold (silver), cash deposits (Pounds) is currency and asset diversified whilst generating OK rewards. Personally I don't like cash deposits/bonds .... lending to others for often too little in return, instead I'd rather shift the bond risk over to the stock side, hold 50/50 stock/hard-cash than either cash deposits or bonds. 50/33/17 US stock/gold/hard-cash. For that 1965-1979 and up to the end of 1971 you'd have been added little/modest amounts of ounces of gold (or rather given the restrictions - silver, selling some stocks to fund those purchases). From 1972 to 1979 you'd have been selling quite significant amounts of silver/gold in order to buy more stock, as stock prices dived and gold/silver prices soared. It was hard work for portfolios to keep up with the 12.3% annualised inflation across 1965-1979, however that 50/33/17 US stock/silver/hard cash did so, with a 15% annualised return. Not great in real (after inflation) terms, but not as bad as what many others endured. And that's with half the portfolio under a mattress (33% silver (gold), 17% hard Pound notes). No fear in regard to bank runs, and where stocks could be liquidated in a few days.

More a case of the larger trades being to sell gold (silver) that had risen a lot, to buy more stock that had declined a lot, I suspect the fear would have been more a case of profit taking good silver/gold gains being relatively easy/comfortable, the greater fear being to buy stocks that had declined a lot in real terms, but weren't down that much in nominal terms. Most just see nominal values, not real values, so I suspect buying more stocks out of good silver/gold gains wouldn't have felt too bad/uncomfortable.

[apachebleu]

3 hours ago, JohnA1 said:

Stacking gold you're throwing good money after bad?😆

You're trading paper (debt instrument) for the only legal form of money!

 Go try to pay your mortgage with your gold stack if you think its the only legal form of money.....

 While i love gold, why else would I be here?, I've noticed a weird trend developing recently with people espousing conspiracy theories and making statements like this. What you say is clearly not true, gold is at best an alternative currency when others fail, it has history and trust but that doesn't mean it cannot go down in value and not come back up.

 It's a historical safe haven but it's an asset like any other, sure zoom out on the charts and it always goes up however there are plenty of peaks and troughs. If you take advantage of these you can make money however if you keep throwing money at a depreciating asset then that is indeed good money after bad.

 Now I grant you over a long enough period the price will probably catch up how long can you sit on your stack if gold does terrible the bed?

 You realise that you don't have to be an absolutist in this? You can recognise strengths and weaknesses in an asset? You won't have your membership revoked for not being hard-core team gold enough? 

 

 

[Roy]

20 minutes ago, apachebleu said:

What you say is clearly not true, gold is at best an alternative currency when others fail, it has history and trust but that doesn't mean it cannot go down in value and not come back up.

😇

 

[apachebleu]

29 minutes ago, Roy said:

😇

 

 Lol....not sure I'm winning friends tonight.