vand

1 hour ago, oliversw5 said:

What are your opinions on price going forward, do you think it will touch and go back down again?

Depends what time frame you mean.

On the short daily cycle the time to buy was 4-6 weeks ago. Now is not the time to be chasing the move. I do expect a daily down cycle soon that could take us back towards $1300 gold. Medium term I expect a move back towards $20 over Q3 which is traditionally a strong time for the PMs.

I do believe that it is a new bull market and therefore the surprises will more likely be on the upside, and it is possible that we will move higher without a meaningful correction.

However the market doesn't care what my opinion is, and it will do what it wants. It is important to have a long term plan that filters out the short term noise. I BUY & HOLD for the long term but I do short term trades also.

Onwards and upwards this morning..

$18/£14 now firmly in the crosshairs.

24 minutes ago, Paul said:

Is anyone taking any fiat profits from the past weeks increase ?

Moved my stops up on my GDX positions but I have learnt to not try to second guess the market and let the profits run.. there could be a hell of a lot of upside in this move. 

Strong follow through today is very good sign.

Gold is leading some very significant price action today in the whole PM sector.

18 hours ago, Gradius said:

So what does a gold breakout mean for someone that's about to start investing in gold? Hold out on buying until it drops?

What does it mean for people that are heavily invested in gold, start selling?

Don't let short term price fluctuations change your big-picture view.

If gold was undervalued last week then it is still undervalued this week, no matter what the price may have done.

The worst thing you can do is to agonise over every price movement, holding off in the hope that the price dips, then buying then getting angry that it keeps falling, then holding off and being too afraid to buy more because it is still falling, then cursing because it is going up and you didn't pull the trigger, etc etc.

You see how this works? 

Markets are mechanisms that do a wonderful job of transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient. Have an accumulation strategy so that you aren't put off by short term fluctuations, then go and execute it. 

PMs flying today. Could be looking even more promising after today's action. 

13 hours ago, KDave said:

Is this the breakout we have been waiting for? Looks like we just needed some talk of nuke slinging to start gold running.

Another few sessions needed imo. 

Also it depends if you are looking at the trend from a linear scale chart or a log scale chart. The breakout looks confirmed on the linear scale, but imo the more meaningful chart is the log chart resistance which hasn't yet been decisively breached.

Long term Breakout attempt #768 now in progress.

Will it succeed this time? We'll probably know by this time next week.

Bounce underway as USD slides to new lows. Dollar bear market will act as a tailwind to all commodities and hard assets for the next 5 years.

We have to face the fact that PMs have NOT been particularly strong lately even as the USD has been weak, so it isn't surprising to see them whacked like this. The writing has been on the wall since gold posted a failed breakout 3 weeks ago.

I have to say that I'm not optimistic short-term, and expect a mini-bloodbath in the PMs over the summer as USD's intermediate cycle plays out, which is why I'm perfectly happy to bide my time with my buying. Would not surprise me to see sub-$15 silver and sub-$1200 gold in the next few weeks.

USD bouncing, which is likely to further whack PMs in the near future. 

Must say that I'm tempted to buy a batch right now but I need to wait another couple of weeks for my buying window to open.

Not got a lot of spare cashish this month, but I took the opportunity to buy an additional 20oz on this morning's dip.  

Depending on your precisely you draw the line, there is argument to be made that at the current price of $1295 we are currently ABOVE the very long term downtrend line that goes back to the 2011 peak. Next couple of sessions will be interesting and should confirm/deny it one way or another, either we hold here or even inch higher, in which case it would confirm the break of the downtrend... or we go back down (yet again).

Don't make the mistake of thinking that the tail is wagging the dog. PMs prices are set in USD as the world reserve currency and it is the strength of the dollar which primarily provides head or tailwind for PMs. USD has fallen against the GBP but it has also fallen against the basket of currencies. GBP is just a sideshow in the overall scheme of things, and I doubt that the market really cares too much which party forms a government on Friday. 

FWIW I am anticipating a short term bounce in USD sooner rather than later, but also that we are at the start of a longer term downtrend that will see USD going much lower in the next few years.. although I think Sterling will also be quite weak, we had our cataclysmic year in 2016 from that point of view.

25oz ordered yesterday as I make a start on the 2nd thousand. Noticed that my average price was a quid or so higher than the previous few batches, so last months price drop has worked out very nicely for us disciplined stackers!

USD price looking very good. Looks like it wants to have a go at $1300.

Dollar looks more and more like it is entering a bear market every session that it fails to meaningfully rally. 

Has to be said that spot gold is looking rather strong - only a couple of % away from the recent highs in USD terms. Of course the dollar has fallen so this offsets quite a lot of gain in GBP but it is encouraging nonetheless. 

Thr best thing is that sentiment is still rather poor in the PM sector, as if nobody trusts the recent gains. This bodes very well for the next few weeks.

Eventually we would like to move up the property ladder to a bigger house, but in today's low inflation envorinment that is much more difficult that it has been if you had bought a house 20-30 years ago as debt is not eroded by wage inflation. So the only option is to make overpayments to bring your mortgage term down. Most people stretching themselves buying "starter homes" today will find it almost impossible to trade up without a significant increase in income. When you hear people saying that the "economy is not working for them" this is precisely the sort of thing that makes it so.

+22 oz added today, 69 oz in total in the last 4 weeks.

I have now joined the 1000+ oz club. Bring on the Apocalypse!!

If you already have a mortgage then making overpayments on it is imo the BEST thing that you can safely do with your money. It's represents zero risk and a very good guaranteed long-term return. With anything else the risk is not zero and the returns are not guaranteed.

BUT.. that doesn't mean that if you don't have a mortgage you should rush out and get one!  The boat has sailed on that one and now is not the time to be piling into housing.

Increasing my buying as the price drops.. added 20oz of Kooks & Libertads at an average of 16% above spot. 

If prices stay this low or even lower over the summer I'm happy to continue buying heavily.

It would not at all surprise me if gold did spend most of the next 12 months bumping between $1200-$1400, as it is still in the basing stage of bull market. I don't think that the last bull market really got going until 2003, and silver in particular was a complete laggard and was bumbling around until 2004 when it started to catch up massively. These markets play out over years, and it is often a case of 3 steps forward, 2 steps backward.

Personally I'm completely indifferent about short term price movements from a stacking point of view, but I can see how it's frustrating if you have just bought, only to see it tank further. I think one of the steps in becoming a mature stacker is to just take it in your stride and know that volatility works to help you accumulate more ounces for your money, even if it means that plenty of your buys will seem ill-timed over a short time period.

@jayboatI couldn't wait and pulled the trigger. That will mean 2 batches bought this month, but I have budgeted for a few additional discretionary buys in addition to my monthly fixed buys anyway.

GBP looking strong & GSR @ 73 tipped it for me. No problem at all if it heads even lower as it'll just mean more cheap silver next month!

As a stacker I tend to overlook the premium series, but I just scooped some absolute bargains from Celticgold who seemed to be flogging Lunar 2 goats like they were going out of fashion

I got - 

Lunar II Goat 2oz Silver Coin 2015 @ 37.27EUR

Lunar II Goat 1/2oz Silver Coin 2015 @ 9.70EUR

Lunar II Goat 5oz Silver Coin 2015 @ 93.86EUR

I think I completely cleaned them out of available stock at those prices