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vand

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Posts posted by vand

  1. Trying to make sense of short term action is pointless. The markey will go where it will no matter what, and it seems like gold was always destined to test the long term down trendline and fail again, resulting in another brutal selloff and  continuation of the consolidation that we have seen since July. I firmly believe this would have been the case no matter what the events of this week, and all that happened was that it was compressed by increased volatility.

    Trump isnt a game changer for anything. The paper money machine will work itself to its assured destruction no matter eho is piloting it.

  2. On 10/4/2016 at 17:54, morezone said:

    Broken £1k. Think I'll hold out and see if we can drop to £950

    Never got there... and that is why you need a long term strategy for buying rather than just setting random price point targets on a whim.

  3. Silver is currently more expensive in GBP than it was 3 years ago.

    http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SILVER%3A%24GBPUSD&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p26945377606&r=1455795590914

    Meanwhile, Silver in USD looks encouraging. It's following gold at the moment, but both look good to have put in a bottom, and I think USD has put in a top, so a selloff in the dollar over the coming months will launch both metals wayyyy higher.

  4. On 8/29/2016 at 21:21, silversky said:

    Hi Vand,  I see we've just tagged your 89DMA and got a nice little bounce today(so far anyway).  Can I ask where the specific number for the DMA comes from?  Is it particularly pm related or just a fib number. Thanks

    There are lots of reason why I like the 89dma. It's probably the lowest MA that I would consider to give a clue about long term trends, and yes I use it because it's a fib number. Stan Weinstein also was very sympathetic to it in this stage analysis theory when it came to looking at commodities. He preferred 30week MA for stocks, which approximates to the 144dma, another fib, which will give you a better lead than the more common 255dma which is again another fib which I prefer to use over the more common 200dma.

  5. 19 minutes ago, KDave said:

    Just bear in mind that on the technical side with gold we have still not seen a break of the long term downtrend that started at the last peak all those years ago, despite several recent attempts, which just leaves us sat here wondering which way its going. 

    People who recite this are just sloppy TAs. While it is true that you CAN draw a line on the gold chart that hasn't yet been broke to the upside,, that only connects 2 datapoints, so people who are saying this are effectively saying that all the price action and subsequent lower highs are not significant despite them connecting far more datapoints. 

    you can equally show on the very long term chart that the bull market that started in 2001 was never broken to the downside, and therefore we have technically been in an uptrend between 2011-2015. Again, pretty sloppy TA because it ignores a lot of relevant data and price action.

  6. Been a text book correction - this sub $19 move has been very healthy.

    We just about touched the 89d ma this week and the longer term 144d ma has begun to move up nicely behind. Very oversold in the short term now, so whatever Yellen says today I think the spot price is going to do what it wants to and either put in a final short term bottom if its hawkish, or move markedly higher if is dovish. 

    I know some people will be frustrated that we're down 15% from the most recent highs, but if you look at silver's history this is a very standard move and paves the way for much higher moves in the coming 12-24 months. 

     

    Keep Calm and Stack Silver.

  7. Solid move today, although ideally I would have liked for silver to at least tag the 89DMA as it did in early June, but it looks like we could be ready to go higher from here. The last churn in the last 5 weeks has definitely unwound a lot of speculative long positions and flushed out short term players and weak hands. 

  8. Just looking at the charts.. we got so far stretched above the long term moving averages that I feel this will be the first real longer term correction. 

    When we spiked to $21 2 weeks ago we got stretched to 33% above the 144dma. I think we'll need at least a few weeks of corrective action for the MAs to catch up and/or spot price to fall back to near the 144dma to pave the platform for new highs.

    Of course, this is all conjecture, we may shoot up to new highs and get even more stretched, but I'm basing my estimates on the balance of probabilities and how I believe that markets participants tend to behave.

  9. On 10/07/2016 at 11:32, KDave said:

    Gold is going higher regardless of who wins the presidential election imo, unless some one can figure out how to fix the many problems inherent within the financial system. Long term fundamentally it is bullish. Technically speaking, from what I have seen on the short term its also bullish. I expect lots of volatility as a UK investor over the coming years, but ultimately higher in currency terms as purchasing power is maintained. Could be wrong though DYOR, I do hope the volatility will provide further buying opportunities in sterling terms, would be surprised and disappointed if this did not happen. :)

    All IMO, open to alternative view points/interpretation. 

    Correctamundo. 

    When the day arrives that see the world live within its means, start paying down its debt and stop stealing from its future generation then the case can be made to get out of precious metals.

     

  10. Lots of traders will have been shaken out of their positions yesterday, only to see the market reverse back. I think the figures show that 70%+ of the time the initial move on these figures is a headfake and the market reverses the inital spike/selloff. 

    I think the only question now is will we see a $1400 handle before the next selloff? I don't think anyone disagrees that this is now a resumption of the bull market.

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